The monthly DemosAU federal poll for Capital Brief has One Nation gaining two points to yet another new peak of 30%, with Labor up a point to 27%, the Coalition suffering a devastating five-point knock to fall to 18%, and the Greens steady on 13%. The pollster produces an estimated seats outcome from its polls based that makes use of data from its detailed quarterly MRP polling, and it has Labor on 71 to 81 seats, One Nation on 54 to 63, the Coalition on four to 11, the Greens on zero to four and others on four to eight. Respondents were also asked how they would vote with Tony Abbott leading the Coalition, with hardly little difference to the result.
Leader ratings record a deterioration for all three: Anthony Albanese is down one on positive to 26%, down one on neutral to 25% and up two on negative to 49%; Angus Taylor is down six to 22%, up five to 50% and up one to 28%; and Pauline Hanson is down two to 37%, down two to 23% and up four to 40%. A three-way preferred prime minister result has Albanese up a point to 35%, Taylor down four to 19% and Hanson up one to 28%.
Questions about the budget measures were again posed, recording a deterioration in support for all three: support for the negative gearing measures down two to 32% with opposition up two 31%; support for changes to capital gains tax discounts is up one to 29% with opposition up four to 33%; and support for the maximum 30% tax rate on family trusts is down three to 24% with opposition up seven to 41%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1497.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll also has One Nation smashing another series record with a two point gain to 31.5%, with Labor down one to 27%, the Coalition up half to 17.5% and the Greens down half to 13.5%. Labor’s two-party lead over One Nation narrows from 53-47 to 51-49, while its leads over the Coalition are in from 54.5-45.5 to 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 54.5-45.5 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1575.
William Bowe @ #1616 Friday, June 26th, 2026 – 9:40 pm
Great PhD topic William! You might pick up one in political science and psychiatry as well 😉
This is getting downright embarrassing for AUKUS defenders. Naval Group just delivered their latest new nuclear submarine (SSN) to the French navy, the De Grasse, almost a year early, with trials passed.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/06/naval-group-delivers-4th-barracuda-type-submarine/
The delivery woes with USA and especially UK SSNS look awful by comparison.
We could have been building these ourselves by now, for far less cost than AUKUS.
How can anyone say the AUKUS “delivery pathway” for RAN SSNs is “optimal” with a straight face?
Socrates at 12.32 am re Mrs M Deeming
“Great PhD topic William!” Not at all. Deeming makes Mr Guy seem a decent man not a mobster mate.
If anyone wants a serious PhD topic it needs to have some depth. Deeming has none. Less depth than a minor puddle. A serious topic would be the comparative place of VIC Libs in worst oppositions in Oz.
Previously they were strong medal contenders, according to Dr Bonham. They are prone to own goals.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/10/australias-worst-oppositions-how-many.html
Dr D
Sorry, that was my lame attempt at humour. The hint was in my comment about a second PhD in psychiatry.
Night all.
Socrates at 12.36 am
I recall you recently read G. Allison re USA-China. His first major book was on the Cuban Missile Crisis, titled Essence of Decision. He applied a bureaucratic politics approach to help explain the responses of different actors within the main players. A young Des Ball wrote a critical article titled “Allison Wonderland”. He criticism was that Allison minimised too much the role of ultimate decision makers.
So the question is optimal for whom? As you know, there are many gravy boaters in the upper ranks of Defence, for whom the key issue is what’s in it for me institutionally not whether it’s a sensible choice.
https://archive.org/details/essenceofdecisio0000unse (link to what might be Allison’s full 1971 book)
“the liberal party needs to understand Australia as it is and not how we would like it to be’. This is a statement from one of the submissions and is linked to a discussion about how Chinese Australian voters moved further away from the Liberals.”
Both the Liberal Party and One Nation know that the few percent of the electorate who are of Chinese extraction are no longer necessary electorally and can be afforded to be written off as lost. (This is even more so if they can be convinced to permanently relocate back to Asia, perhaps renouncing their nominal Australian citizenship in the process.) More votes can be gained on the other side of the ledger in lower-socioeconomic, whiter strongholds. Elizabeth and Salisbury in SA are going to become One Nation very very soon after being reliable Labor for a long time. Placating the Chinese is simply not a meaningful strategy any more. And it will be even less so in a future net-negative-migration and increasingly monocultural Australia.
Socrates at 12.36 am
Ok, no worries. I doubt if many psychiatrists would consider Ms Deeming as worth their trouble.
I recall you recently read G. Allison re USA-China. His first major book was on the Cuban Missile Crisis, titled Essence of Decision. He applied a bureaucratic politics approach to help explain the responses of different actors within the main players. A young Des Ball wrote a critical article titled “Allison Wonderland”. He criticism was that Allison minimised too much the role of ultimate decision makers.
So the question is optimal for whom? As you know, there are many gravy boaters in the upper ranks of Defence, for whom the key issue is what’s in it for me institutionally not whether it’s a sensible choice.
https://archive.org/details/essenceofdecisio0000unse (link to what might be Allison’s full 1971 book)
Asha at 6.38 pm and nadia at 7.22 pm
Asha: “Nonetheless, I can’t imagine he {Hastie} could be any worse than his immediate predecessors. But then I thought the same thing when Taylor took over from Ley, so…. er… who knows?”
Where were you during the 2025 election? The three amigos of Lib failure were Dutton, Taylor & Hume.
Nadia, my updated view is that Taylor will be gone before the footy finals. The Libs can’t afford a drift toward nothingness to continue for much longer. His waiver on multiculturalism was a white flag.
Hastie is not only talking about the Hanson cult with his rhetoric; it’s mainly his pitch to save the Libs.
There is a personal logic for Hastie. His seat is potentially at risk, unless the cult collapses in a heap. He may have difficulty saving his seat with the inept Taylor at the helm. Many other Lib MPs would too.
Puff, the Magic Dragon at 5.19 pm
” … what is happening to the USA”?
They got beaten by Turkiye, with the winning goal nearly 8 mins into the 7 mins of extra time. If the refs had been nobbled by Trump’s cronies that wouldn’t have occurred.
Did you notice the ref in the Netherlands v Tunisia game? She’s a former political science student from Mexico, Katia Itzel Garcia. See:
https://english.news.cn/20260626/2e4ad2fcb5394aefa6fca3aa6f89cacc/c.html
Of course, if Mrs Deeming’s ilk were to rule there would be no chance of women officiating over men.
@Timmy says:
Saturday, June 27, 2026 at 1:14 am
_________________________________________
You forgot to finish that rant off with a Dr Evil maniacal laugh
Nath, last page (via the Age):
That sounds less like weird political games and more like a full-on mental breakdown. Somebody who’s been around politics for several years, both at local and state level, knows not to deal with media like that – her marbles have been lost. Don’t be surprised if the next article about her has the Lifeline phone number down the bottom.
Heads-up to whoever is operating the Timmy-bot: you accidentally pasted a sentence meant for the SA thread in the middle of the anti-Asian comment. It makes you look more like a human if you don’t make obvious mistakes like that. Who knows, you might even pass a Turing test one day.
New thread.
Some interesting comments regarding the recently formed Community Strength Australia Party, by Zalli Steggal and Allegra Spender.
The ALP won’t campaign against this organisation or other community independents for one reason.
These seats aren’t and have never been Labor seats and most likely never will be Labor seats.
It is in the best interests of the Labor Party, that these traditionally and formally the safest 0f Liberal Party seats remain the domain of these independents.
They will select ‘token’ candidates to contest these seats, but mainly to wave the flag and maximise the Senate vote.
The five ‘Teal’ seats in Sydney represent the wealthiest, most professional and highly educated demographic in the city.
It is my believe that Curtin and Kooyong would represent a similar demographic in Perth and Melbourne.
Whilst they continue to be -re-elected it is seven more seats that the Liberals need to win, elsewhere.
Dai Le has been making some noise about forming a ‘Western Sydney Community Independents’ organisation.
Interesting, if she would like to be a party member, she may like to contest Fowler as a Liberal, the party from which she originated.
It is unfortunate that the ALP totally stuffed up the pre-selection for Fowler in 2022, by parachuting into the electorate a former NSW Premier who had no connection with that seat or community.
They already had a wonderful local candidate, Tu Le, who had been working for a considerable time to retain the then, ALP seat.
Timmy the loon at 1.14am, about the approaching glory days when Hanson is leading us to economic nirvana and all those brown and slanty eyed folks have been stripped of citizenship.
He reckons the votes of non-whites will be irrelevant, I get that will be true if you can find a way to cancel their citizenship..
He reckons the voting effect of immigrants will be reduced If those of Chinese extraction “can be convinced to permanently relocate back to Asia”.
What if they don’t want to move to Asia Timmy, where will they build the gas chambers? Will all those nice white people want one in their neighbourhood?
It is obvious that Timmy is not as quite as dumb as he pretends to be and is just taking the piss. Sadly, far too many Hanson acolytes believe this crap.