The monthly DemosAU federal poll for Capital Brief has One Nation gaining two points to yet another new peak of 30%, with Labor up a point to 27%, the Coalition suffering a devastating five-point knock to fall to 18%, and the Greens steady on 13%. The pollster produces an estimated seats outcome from its polls based that makes use of data from its detailed quarterly MRP polling, and it has Labor on 71 to 81 seats, One Nation on 54 to 63, the Coalition on four to 11, the Greens on zero to four and others on four to eight. Respondents were also asked how they would vote with Tony Abbott leading the Coalition, with hardly little difference to the result.
Leader ratings record a deterioration for all three: Anthony Albanese is down one on positive to 26%, down one on neutral to 25% and up two on negative to 49%; Angus Taylor is down six to 22%, up five to 50% and up one to 28%; and Pauline Hanson is down two to 37%, down two to 23% and up four to 40%. A three-way preferred prime minister result has Albanese up a point to 35%, Taylor down four to 19% and Hanson up one to 28%.
Questions about the budget measures were again posed, recording a deterioration in support for all three: support for the negative gearing measures down two to 32% with opposition up two 31%; support for changes to capital gains tax discounts is up one to 29% with opposition up four to 33%; and support for the maximum 30% tax rate on family trusts is down three to 24% with opposition up seven to 41%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1497.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll also has One Nation smashing another series record with a two point gain to 31.5%, with Labor down one to 27%, the Coalition up half to 17.5% and the Greens down half to 13.5%. Labor’s two-party lead over One Nation narrows from 53-47 to 51-49, while its leads over the Coalition are in from 54.5-45.5 to 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 54.5-45.5 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1575.
“Can the Monocultural Crone” should be the catch cry of every anti-poorlean person
Won the last election with 35% of primary. Lie to the electorate about pension cuts/tax increases, crashing approval numbers, pummeling primary numbers to the low 20s.
Is Keir and Albo going the same path.
Federal Labor government will be a majority at the 2028 federal election
The contest is who will be the federal opposition , Lib/nats or one nation
One nation is taking majority of the federal lib/nats and other Allied lib /nats side of politics , primary votes swing against.
Not all of one nation 2pp is going to federal lib/nats , as other non lib/nats voters probably putting preferences to the non lib/nats parties ,
Only a few weeks to go before the ALP Conference in Adelaide.
For those interested, there is also the Chifley Fringe event – and the extensive agenda is worth a look to understand how broad the church has become…
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/laborengaged26-tickets-1992038110613?aff=oddtdtcreator&keep_tld=true
It is starting to look a lot like the UK
Reform – One Nation – sadly similar and running on hate
Labour – Labor – both with big majorities but losing their way after moving away from their traditional bases to a degree (hopefully we follow suit with a change of leader)
Conservatives – LNP – both struggling
Greens – Greens – although they’re doing a bit better over there for now
Lib Dems – Teal “Community” Party if it gets up and running?
I’d add Restore Britain but we don’t really have an alternative polling enough to consider and I’d place Clive to the left of One Nation rather than the right
Both countries seeing the end of the 2 party system
Of course the big difference, and the one we’re all banking on saving us, is a much better voting system than first past the post
The Libs could kill One Nation today- preference them last….but they wont.
Lowy Institute poll (focused more on international relations than domestic politics dropped) https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/
Biggest headline takeaways is a drop in trust of the US (down five form 2025) and a drop in support of culutral diversity (-17 form 2024)
There will be so many adorable articles about the rise of One Nation published that day 🙂
At the 2025 federal election
federal Lib/nats combined primary vote 31.8%
One Nation primary vote 6.6%
according to these 2 opinion polls- hypothetically
One nation primary vote is 31.5% (swing to of 25% from the 2025 federal election )
Lib/nats combined primary vote 18%(swing against of 13.8% from the 2025 federal election )
Actual voting evidence of S.A state election and federal Farrer By-election
One Nation is taking seats and primary votes off the liberal party
wololo
https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1ucvv5g/russian_antidrone_defense_wizard_spells_for/
torchbearer says:
Tuesday, June 23, 2026 at 6:59 am
The Libs could kill One Nation today- preference them last….but they wont.
All that’s required is an “ independent “ campaign prior to election to PUT ON LAST, easy .
Unlike in the UK our preferential system will ensure democracy prevails
Scott out of interest how low would the Labor primary vote have to fall before you mention it in your calculations?
Sub 25? Sub 20?
From the last thread:
Dr Doolittle, Tuesday, June 23, 2026 at 12:42 am:
Dr D – that last bit is what drew my attention the most. In your view, how close is Russia to its nuclear deterrent losing its credibility? I would have thought Putin would prioritise spending on his nuclear deterrent – even at the cost of his conventional war upon Ukraine – rather than the other way around. There is already a stereotype of drunk/corrupt Russians stealing components, fuel, etc from their nukes, without their Government also starving their arsenal of funding.
Omar Comin’, Tuesday, June 23, 2026 at 7:08 am:
😆
Was that a Holy Water +10? I had one of those when I last played a cleric. Never thought to use one as a shaving brush, though.
Also, they do realise Rasputin was a villain, right?
“Oh, those Russians!”
3 words, thats the rule. I reckon this’ll catch on”
Hyperinstitutionalisation Participatorydemocratisation Intergenerationalresponsibility
“Andy Burnham prepares for power as emotional Keir Starmer bows out:
New Makerfield MP could get keys to No 10 unopposed after British prime minister’s resignation paves way for successor”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/22/burnham-prepares-power-emotional-starmer-uk-prime-minister-resignation
In a YouGov ‘survey’ last week, Reform’s vote was recorded as 24% of the national vote; Labour & the Tories, both on 19% (Hartcher, SMH). Last Thursday, Labour easily won the Makerfield by-election, and the next batch of polling will likely reflect an increase in its vote. Farage should be careful about counting his chickens, as should his soul-mate, Hanson.
Lol at Hard Being Green
Shallow attempt at analogising UK and Auspol and he produces this gem…..
“Greens – Greens – although they’re doing a bit better over there for now”
For now! The Greens haven’t got any momentum here precisely because the government has not behaved like UK Labour under Starmer.
So the British Labour Party has gone all in on Burnham, even though it seems to me that they are struggling to explain why, after two years, they needed to dump a leader who won a massive majority and who has been very impressive on the world stage and replace him with somebody that they don’t really seem to know all that much about other than that they kind of like the cut of his jib. (Oh, and in the case of those Labour members further to the left, because they think he will give them much more leeway than Starmer did.)
It looks to me like the sort of decision that could all go horribly wrong. I feel sorry for Starmer, who I think is a good, principled man who did a reasonable job guiding his country through difficult times.
newy boy
Their arsenal might not be as good as it was, but I would assume that it is more than enough to destroy pretty much everything on earth. Something we should all be deeply concerned about.
mb
Yep. All real considerations, IMO.
The business of searching for yet another charismatic cult leader is a dead end.
Give me a policy-focused plodder who will do the hard yards any day of the week.
Hanson will get rid of utility level renewable subsidies but will keep the diesel fuel subsidies.
HBG,
Are you intending to preference ON ahead of Labor?
The single biggest move in the polls, above, is that Hanson’s netsat has fallen by six points. I assume that as people start looking under Hanson’s bonnet they are starting to notice the oil leaks.
newy boy
“if they survive they will swear it worked” 😆
Hard Being Green says:
Tuesday, June 23, 2026 at 7:20 am
Scott out of interest how low would the Labor primary vote have to fall before you mention it in your calculations?
Sub 25? Sub 20?
–——————————————————-
Personally, one nation primary vote would need to be 40% or higher
Ranked: The World’s Most and Least Liked Countries
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-worlds-most-and-least-liked-countries/
Whine, whine, whine, Pauline oh
I could see, that girl was no good for me
But I was lost like a slave that no man could free.
The Revisionist revisioning, nothing the same? Labour went after the disabled as well and we’re equally poor in support of Palestine. Thankfully Labor hasn’t gone as far as making Palestine Action illegal and arresting old folk peacefully protesting as “terrorists”
Both parties leaving too many behind
The Greens here are holding ground, just need to tweak their messaging and mid teens is possible
Interesting to hear David Pocock say a Teals “Community” Party “isn’t for him” this morning on RN Breakfast
Budget day in NSW, pre-election budget, will we get any sweetners?
Time for work, enjoy your day
World News & Politics Patrol:
A ‘personal enemy’ of Vladimir Putin has died suddenly after eating poisonous mushrooms. Grigory Nekhoroshev, 69, became a sworn enemy of Putin when he revealed the dictator’s relationship with Olympic gymnast Alina Kabaeva: https://extra.ie/2026/06/22/news/putin-enmey-dies-from-poisoning
Ukraine Hits Dubna Space Communications Center, Russia’s Largest Satellite Teleport: https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/ukraine-hits-dubna-space-communications-center-russias-largest-satellite-teleport-20040
Zelenskyy rejects efforts to help Putin save face as peace talks stall: https://english.nv.ua/nation/zelenskyy-rejects-push-to-help-putin-save-face-in-peace-talks-50618229.html
Zelenskyy Says Ukraine Has Begun Returning the War to Russia—and the G7 Backs It: https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/zelenskyy-says-ukraine-has-begun-returning-the-war-to-russia-and-the-g7-backs-it-20031
German minister blames Trump for Strait of Hormuz closure: https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/german-minister-blames-trump-for-strait-of-hormuz-closure
At least 18 dead in France, including two children in hot car, as Europe bakes: https://www.yahoo.com/news/weather-news/articles/temperatures-exceed-40c-european-heatwave-092540190.html
UK heatwave live: Extreme 40C heat could break weather records as schools announce plans to close early: https://www.independent.co.uk/weather/heatwave-uk-weather-forecast-live-updates-b3000169.html
“I’m out”: Tucker Carlson says he’s done with the GOP: https://www.axios.com/2026/06/22/tucker-carlson-quits-republicans-maga-fractures
JD Vance is watching his presidential ambitions go up in smoke: https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2026/06/jd-vance-is-watching-his-presidential-ambitions-go-up-in-smoke/
Arrests Grow Over Trump’s Reflecting Pool Renovation Disaster: https://newrepublic.com/post/212126/arrests-trump-reflecting-pool-renovation-disaster
Judge blocks subpoenas for Walz and others over Minnesota immigration crackdown: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jun/22/federal-subpoenas-minnesota-officials-order
Trump accuses newspaper of ‘treason’ after it questioned what the Iran war had actually achieved: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-iran-new-york-times-treason-b3000217.html
Trump Threatens to Defund States That Don’t Make His Election Changes: https://newrepublic.com/post/212151/trump-threatens-defund-homeland-security-states-election-changes-2026-midterms
New York explores 2042 Olympic bid: https://www.news10.com/capitol/new-york-2042-olympic-study/
Elon Musk promises to sue lawmaker who suggested DOGE cuts led to the deaths of 4.5 million kids: https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/elon-musk-ro-khanna-doge-cuts-b3000732.html
Northern Ireland’s Donaldson found guilty of child sex offences: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/jury-finds-northern-irelands-donaldson-guilty-historic-child-sex-offences-2026-06-22/
Starmer was hopeless as PM. Yes, he did win a thumping majority in ’24, but almost from the day he moved into No. 10, his lack of political smarts & gift of the gab became obvious. He was an inarticulate ditherer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hiejcXc2rTo
Hanson is going to target young people by raising the voting age to 21.
Hanson is going to target young people by making them pay all HECs.
Hanson is going to target young people by getting rid of free TAFE.
Hanson is going to target young people by re-introducing the youth wage.
Hanson is going to target young people by getting rid of payments for internships.
Hanson is going to target young people by introducing conscription to fill her vastly expanded ADF.
Hanson is going to target young people by forcing them to go and fight in Iran.
This take is insane. Of course if you’re a Greens cheerleader then you’re going to say this kind of thing I guess. But the only thing the ALP is really getting heat for electorally are the CGT changes. Which I would argue appeals directly to their political base
Also the other things the ALP has been getting heat for is the support of the Voice, which continues to be something that fuels the backlash on the right. Also the rapid push for renewables. Neither of these things alienate their base
Thanks, Hh
[A ‘personal enemy’ of Vladimir Putin has died suddenly after eating poisonous mushrooms. Grigory Nekhoroshev, 69, became a sworn enemy of Putin when he revealed the dictator’s relationship with Olympic gymnast Alina Kabaeva: https://extra.ie/2026/06/22/news/putin-enmey-dies-from-poisoning%5D
Mushies are becoming an international thing. As usual, Australia took an early lead.
The Greens have political ADD.
They salve it by saying stupid and provocative things in the hope they get a bite.
BW
The standard line on what was wrong with Starmer is wryly amusing. His main fault was apparently that “he didn’t do anything.” But his second main fault was trying to take a winter heating subsidy away from people who were well enough off not to require it.
The frequent criticism that Starmer didn’t do anything should be read as code language for “He didn’t nationalise all companies, establish the glorious worker’s republic and break off all ties with Israel.”
Corbyn might have been expunged from the British Labour Party, but Corbynism is stil there: or perhaps I should say Bennism (with Benn’s son currently serving in the booby prize role of Secretary of State for Northern Ireland).
Burnham should appoint Starmer to a senior judicial position (eg, President of the Supreme Court), where he’ll likely excel.
mb
Do you have a handy list of the five big things that Burnham should do instanter? I have been giving this one a bit of thought. Here are some wild guesses. I am working on the theory that big is beautiful.
1. get back into the eu asap
2. do an across the board cut of 5% of all governement-to-individual payments and feed the savings straight into reducing the debt. Savings in interest payments to go instantly to the poorest. Politicians would take a 10% cut to show that they get it.
3. Means test the lot.
4. Stop subsidizing economic crocks.
5. Set a maintenance budget threshold for all privately owned pubic utilities. Forced sale to recapitalize them if they fail to meet the threshold.
6. Cut migration by around two thirds.
7. Swingeing tax reforms.
@hardbeinggreen
I don’t think the Greens in Australia are going to be able to expand unless Labor screws up big time by going to right wing . The last term of parliament shows that regardless of merits the electorate does not like the Greens trying to replace Labor.
The Australian Greens will not be going anywhere unless they show a willingness to defend Australia.
The Lowy poll has around 90% wanting increased spending OR maintaining spending at current levels.
10% want to decrease spending. The latter shows that around a quarter of the Greens do not support decreased spending levels.
mb
This is quite a good article canvassing the ongoing revolving door prime minister crisis:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/17/the-ungovernable-country-why-britain-keeps-losing-prime-ministers
Morning all. Newy boy on this comment from Dr D last night and your question:
Obviously Putin wouldn’t say if his nuclear threats are a bluff, but there are several technical reasons why I raised the question.
Nuclear weapons are expensive to build, both the bombs and the delivery systems, and to maintain. Both need regular maintenance and/ or replacement. The costs are so high some in NATO argue a larger conventional defence force is better value.
Electronics degrade in the presence of high radioactivity and the chemical fuel in rockets decays over time. So any nuclear arsenal needs money to maintain. The UK can barely afford it. France wants the EU to share the cost of it’s nuclear deterrent.
Most of Russia’s nuclear arsenal dates from the cold war, hence is now at least 35 years old. That is at or beyond the design life of the weapons. The number of nuclear weapons built since then by Russia is far smaller than- maybe dozens, not thousands.
Putin no longer permits nuclear inspectors since all the nuclear weapon reduction treaties have expired. So we don’t know. But it would be amazing given Russia’s economic state if they had maintained all the nuclear weapons they claim to have.
Did he eat them before falling out the window or did he eat them on the way down?
Even were only 5% of russia’s nuclear warheads to be delivery-ready, that would be more than enough to functionally destroy europe.
Beef Stroganoff?
There is nearly two years before we have a federal election.
One Nation, with the help of its supreme leader has naively outlined the multitude of reasons why enough voters will not be giving ON their first preference on election day in 2028.
ON is being sponsored by that section of the anti Labor media, the same media that has apparently discarded the other two formerly coalition partners as not worth the effort.
The Greens seem intent on sniping away at their possibilities.
The Teals are currently displaying their good reasoning why they aren’t a party.
The reality is that Labor is continuing to govern for the greater good, which the entanglement of others seem incapable.
ON has entered the political parade ring far too early, in the wrong gear, with a temperamental jockey and having not giving consideration to the changing track conditions.
Unless Australia is to experience some unidentified domestic or international, and as yet unknown factors, then Australia will in likelihood continue to have a Labor government after 2028
BW
Well, Burnham will be finished if he can’t achieve something towards point 6. But he’s going to struggle with his own party over that one.
He’s unlikely to dare going anywhere near most of the others. The fuss about the winter heating allowance has taken any further means testing or cutting of social security payments off the table.
If he wants to try something big and bold, then returning to the EU is a gamble that is perhaps worth trying, but he would need to convince the electorate that it won’t jeopardise the achievement of point 6. And I reckon that would be hard.
I suspect that the Burnham regime will be all flash and little bang.
However, his best asset is that he will come into the role with no obvious challengers from within his own party. That gives him a clear run at the migration issue for a year or two. I’m not sure if he fully appreciates what an existential problem it is for his party: it’s nowhere near as big an issue in the north as it is in London.
Anyway, I think he is unlikely to be the answer to Britain’s woes, but I nevertheless wish him well.
(looks at the PV bludgertrack at the bottom of the page)
….. I’m not seeing this supposed bleeding of primary votes from the ALP on the left due to the “abandonment of their base”. They’re burning political capital this term, sure, no question about that. But I think it’s fair to say it’s not on the Left flank. The UK comparison falls flat at the first hurdle
MB is on fire this morning over Starmer and Bendy Burnham.
The nasty trots – whom WWP, Nicky and the usual claque of local green-trots adore – are still inside British Labour and are already itching to tear Bendy down. As are the MSM. Naturally.
Because … Israel …
Same as the antipodean fuckwits wanta do Albo in.
“ But I think it’s fair to say it’s not on the Left flank”
______
That’s if one excludes cosplaying progressives with property portfolios from the equation.