The monthly DemosAU federal poll for Capital Brief has One Nation gaining two points to yet another new peak of 30%, with Labor up a point to 27%, the Coalition suffering a devastating five-point knock to fall to 18%, and the Greens steady on 13%. The pollster produces an estimated seats outcome from its polls based that makes use of data from its detailed quarterly MRP polling, and it has Labor on 71 to 81 seats, One Nation on 54 to 63, the Coalition on four to 11, the Greens on zero to four and others on four to eight. Respondents were also asked how they would vote with Tony Abbott leading the Coalition, with hardly little difference to the result.
Leader ratings record a deterioration for all three: Anthony Albanese is down one on positive to 26%, down one on neutral to 25% and up two on negative to 49%; Angus Taylor is down six to 22%, up five to 50% and up one to 28%; and Pauline Hanson is down two to 37%, down two to 23% and up four to 40%. A three-way preferred prime minister result has Albanese up a point to 35%, Taylor down four to 19% and Hanson up one to 28%.
Questions about the budget measures were again posed, recording a deterioration in support for all three: support for the negative gearing measures down two to 32% with opposition up two 31%; support for changes to capital gains tax discounts is up one to 29% with opposition up four to 33%; and support for the maximum 30% tax rate on family trusts is down three to 24% with opposition up seven to 41%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1497.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll also has One Nation smashing another series record with a two point gain to 31.5%, with Labor down one to 27%, the Coalition up half to 17.5% and the Greens down half to 13.5%. Labor’s two-party lead over One Nation narrows from 53-47 to 51-49, while its leads over the Coalition are in from 54.5-45.5 to 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 54.5-45.5 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1575.
Honestly I just feel sad about Karl Stefanovic. There were moments when he broke out into genuine laughter at silly cats, but now it seems he’s gone all-in with the Trumpists, who hate animals.
Oh yeah, quick question, does Pauline Hanson have any pets? Or does she share Big Donald’s attitude toward them?
Bushfire Bill
Agreed. Stefanovik will be the Vance to Hanson’s Trump
Once again the spineless Supreme Court throws the country into chaos and vulnerable people to the dogs. There should be a special kind of karma for the likes of Stephen Miller.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2026/06/26/nursing-homes-factory-owners-immigrants-brace-fallout-supreme-court-ruling/
Does Malcolm Roberts count?
@Asha
Damn you, I spat out my lemonade as I read that.
Ashasays:
Friday, June 26, 2026 at 8:53 pm
Does Malcolm Roberts count?
_____________________
I classify Malcolm Roberts as “The Stanley Parable” of politicians.
Presumably though Freshwater’s pre-election samples were showing recalled referendum votes different from the actual result, because otherwise their weighting for it wouldn’t have made any difference.
Freshwater’s failure was more subtle that jacking up the Coalition vote simply because of what happened at the referendum. The most likely explanation is that they were getting too few people in their surveys recalling having voted no; the no voters they were getting included too many Coalition and too few Labor voters; and they were exacerbating that problem by upweighting their responses to match the referendum result.
I would speculate that the underlying problem was that those motivated to respond to their polls were more likely to be politically engaged, and thus to have clearly structured voting choices: no to the Indigenous Voice, yes to right-wing political parties. Whereas Labor supporters who voted no were fuzzier in their outlook, and thus less likely to co-operate with a pollster.
Is anyone really surprised a rich, white, gen-x, male, raised in Capalaba, educated at multiple religious schools, would have right-wing tendencies?
Anyone remembers when Stefanovic wore the same suit for a year as a statement about people attacking his co-host over her clothing choices? He was Mr Woke at that time.
Talk about dog acts, Hanson slagged Toto: ‘vicious’.
B. S. Fairman @ #1609 Friday, June 26th, 2026 – 9:18 pm
He wore different shirts and ties though. Not exactly analogous, as any woman who has worn the same skirt or pants, different shirt and still gotten snippy remarks about needing more clothes would attest. But yes, top marks for at least trying to make an effort.
That was when he was on a show whose audience was 57% female. Now he wants to be Joe Rogan.
Someone is not taking their exposure as a malicious bullshit artist well:
The Victorian Liberal Party has begun the process of severing ties with its most controversial MP, with Opposition Leader Jess Wilson on Friday sending a clear message to Moira Deeming that she has lost the support of the party…..
Several senior Liberal figures, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal party matters, said Deeming’s unsubstantiated accusations against Guy had exhausted the patience of even her most loyal supporters and she was now completely isolated from the party…This masthead put multiple questions to Deeming concerning her allegations against Guy. She responded with insults and did not address questions.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/they-are-finished-with-her-moira-deeming-and-liberals-poised-to-part-ways-20260626-p60af7.html
This didn’t age well:
Ms Deeming’s husband, Andrew Deeming posted on X attacking Mr Guy shortly before the police announced no offence occurred.
“As a man – I would never grab a woman by the back of the neck,” he posted on X.
“As a manager – if a male staff member grabbed a female staff member by the neck, she wouldn’t need to tell me twice or even go to the police, because he’d be gone by the end of the day.
“And as a husband – keep your f. king hands off my wife.”
No one has stopped to think about the real victim in all this, which is me. I’m going to have to do a precis on Moira Deeming’s political career for my election guide before November, and even before this week it was threatening to be about six pages long.
Only if ON want her. The Libs are going to get rid of her by the sounds of it.
William Bowe @ #1616 Friday, June 26th, 2026 – 9:40 pm
Our collective hearts bleed (well most of ours do that anyway) for you WB – MD: bomb-thrower or political puppet poppet (or poppet puppet) ?
Anyway, once again thanks should go out to the vigilance of our Macedonian community whose commitment to surveillance stopped an egregious destruction of a man’s reputation.
For your sake Will, hopefully there’s enough time for a defamation case to send her bankrupt.
“Only if ON want her. The Libs are going to get rid of her by the sounds of it.”
Moria Deeming’s Australian National Conservatives, coming to a ballot box near you.
– WaPo
Birthright citizenship is found in Section 1 of the 14th Amendment.
It reads:
“All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof,* are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”
I don’t think even the current bench of the US Supreme Court could misinterpret this section – the four originalists on the court – Thomas, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Coney Barrett – especially so. But given that three of them were nominated by Trump and have nearly always done his bidding, there’s a chance they will continue to do so, which would cause social pandemonium. Based on oral argument, I don’t think they’ll toy with the instant section, but I wouldn’t put any money on it.
A wider concern is, if, as appears likely, the Dems don’t take the Senate, and if, as has been predicated, Thomas & Alito resign during Trump’s term in office, he’ll get to nominate their replacements, thereby creating a court in his vision for the foreseeable future, as, unlike our equivalent, they have life tenure.
* An example of “subject to the jurisdiction thereof” is a child born to an embassy staffer, who wouldn’t be eligible for US citizenship.
Ghost Of Whitlamsays:
Friday, June 26, 2026 at 9:50 pm
For your sake Will, hopefully there’s enough time for a defamation case to send her bankrupt.
_________________
I doubt Guy will launch anything until after the election.
Beware of Macedonians bearing CCTV.
The far right justices will somehow find a way to say that a newborn isn’t subject to the jurisdiction of the United States but is still subject to being arrested & deported under the jurisdiction of the United States.
The next nail in the coffin for the Constitution will be when the far-right members allow Trump to go for a third term.
You have to wonder what John Pesutto is thinking right now.
Someone may have already posted this but Kos Samaras gets it right…
https://pearlsandirritations.com/post/2026/06/hansons-politics-of-subtraction-offers-her-own-voters-less/
Although Guy could commence a defo suit, it could cause him more pain than Deeming’s accusation. The public policy here is obvious.
Beware of Macedonians bearing grappa. Too much of that and you end up arm in arm with strangers stepping sideways this way and then that.
Joining a party that has a convicted rapist on its staff and whose base includes manosphere bros who believe women routinely falsely accuse men of assault would certainly be an interesting move for Deeming given the circumstances.
Mavis:
I don’t even want to imagine who Trump would nominate for the Supreme Court if a vacancy occurs. In his last term, he was still somewhat fettered by the then-establishment of the GOP, and his nominees all at least had the requisite qualifications to be a Supreme Court justice.
Now, though? We would be lucky if they even have a law degree.
In terms of cost of living the most significant fix is to increase wages by slightly in excess of the inflation rate
The Albanese government has the record it has before FWA
The Liberal Party over 10 years made no submission to FWA
Effectively siding with business in opposing any increase in the minimum wage
In regards inflation and its existence, the RBA acts to restrict inflation to within a band of 2 to 3%
So the RBA factors in a rate of inflation
Inflation is a fact of life – always has been and always will be – ranging from double digits such as in circa 1980 to within the RBA band
In 1980 unemployment was also in double digits – and there was the problem with the government of the day freezing and salary and wages increases leading to the economic headwinds of the time – and a change of government in 1983
Further, the unemployment rate is at a level defined as full employment meaning there are jobs available (so people getting wage rises)
The Liberal Party presenting itself as on the side of workers would promote the most obvious attack line by the government
It was not and still is not a strategy it can pursue
And that is just for starters
Recall Albanese waving around a $2- coin ahead of being elected pm – and the Liberal Party and media attacks?
The Liberals thought at that stage they had the 2022 election in the bag
And in regards women, you simply never presume to touch them absent explicit approval by the woman – and more so if you are in a senior position or in the public eye
Naive in the extreme to presume to do so
No doubt, because of the open war which is the Liberal Party party room, the lady’s reaction was over blown BUT that is even more reason that you do not unilaterally act to touch her (no matter where)
Guy has no excuse except to apologise and to say he had had “a couple too many” which I understand was the case
Think Robert Doyle so the Liberal Party is and has been on notice
Ashasays:
Friday, June 26, 2026 at 10:17 pm
Joining a party that has a convicted rapist on its staff and whose base includes manosphere bros who believe women routinely falsely accuse men of assault would certainly be an interesting move for Deeming given the circumstances.
_______
I had never considered that angle. Adds another flavor to proceedings.
Davidsays:
Guy has no excuse except to apologise and to say he had had “a couple too many” which I understand was the case
___________________
I think you are a day or two behind current events Observer.
The Federalist Society is well stocked for fascists with law degrees.
Problem is that Deeming didn’t accuse Guy of placing a hand on her shoulder. She accused him of putting her in a “violent headlock.” Which clearly didn’t happen based on the available footage.
I suspect one of the reasons she so heavily exaggerated what happened is because the idea that a man shouldn’t touch a woman without her consent under any circumstances is a probably not a view shared by many in Deeming’s far-right base. Respecting a woman’s autonomy is for the woke left.
William Bowe says:
Friday, June 26, 2026 at 9:40 pm
No one has stopped to think about the real victim in all this, which is me. I’m going to have to do a precis on Moira Deeming’s political career for my election guide before November, and even before this week it was threatening to be about six pages long.
You skip the details and just provide a summary.
In a party full of peanuts, Moira Deeming is the biggest nut.
Credlin’s next column in the Herald Sun will be interesting. She will try and defend her.
Have been thinking about my comment already. It needs to get past the moderators.
Violent headlock needs to be included though.
Ashasays:
Friday, June 26, 2026 at 10:43 pm
Problem is that Deeming didn’t accuse Guy of placing a hand on her shoulder. She accused him of putting her in a “violent headlock.” Which clearly didn’t happen based on the available footage.
I suspect one of the reasons she exaggerated what happened is because the idea that a man shouldn’t touch a woman without her consent under any circumstances is a probably not a view shared by many in Deeming’s far-right base. Respecting a woman’s autonomy is for the woke left.
______________________
I suspect the reasons for all this was some kind of bizarre attempt at career advancement. My best guess.
Meanwhile there are accusations of actual sexual harassment occurring in the Pilbara.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/andrew-forrest-warns-workers-over-disturbing-sex-harassment-allegations-20260626-p60ahv.html
Seems today’s FIFO bros are not sending us their best people.
Re Asha at 10.17
Maliciously false allegations of sexual abuse by men do occur. One cited figure of such allegations in the Family Court jurisdiction is 10% of all the allegations made. (Also, only about 15% are found to be proved. Some found to be untrue are down to confusion, mistakes, etc. )
Whether or not one thinks 10% justifies a claim that malicious allegations are “routine”, it’s a significant problem. If Pauline and ON want it addressed, then that is highly creditworthy.
frednksays:
Friday, June 26, 2026 at 10:46 pm
You skip the details and just provide a summary.
_______________________
Yep. He is not going to have the room.
If Deeming is 6 pages, he is going to need at least 20 pages to cover off the Big Build corruption scandal.
Nath
‘the liberal party needs to understand Australia as it is and not how we would like it to be’. This is a statement from one of the submissions and is linked to a discussion about how Chinese Australian voters moved further away from the Liberals.
————-
That could be said about the Liberal Party’s whole attitude to government, many Liberals seem afraid of today’s Australia.
nathsays:
Friday, June 26, 2026 at 10:52 pm
Ashasays:
I suspect the reasons for all this was some kind of bizarre attempt at career advancement. My best guess.
_______________________
He probably didn’t open the door for her one day or something petty like that.
She acts like she’s the Queen of Sheba.
Why the One Nation scam keeps working.
https://youtu.be/uvP2LZXzGdE?si=CnK1Gwy9arxtv861 (~13 mins)
From “Monuments to Misinformation”, an Australian guy who talks about politics. Not a big following (a bit over 3,000) but he has some good points to make.
Journalists at Nine ‘really angry’ about Karl Stefanovic’s podcast well before Tommy Robinson interview
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jun/26/journalists-nine-really-angry-about-karl-stefanovics-podcast-before-tommy-robinson-interview-ntwnfb
Rafiki:
No doubt they do. Lying arseholes who are happy to ruin someone else’s life exist in all demographics, men and women alike.
I’ve never been subject to such an accusation myself, but I have had the threat made to me. (Specifically “I’m going to tell those huge Turkish guys over there you raped me so they beat you up”, which is a fucking terrifying thing to be told while travelling down a dark street late at night in a foreign country.)
At the same time, it’s unfortunately also really common for women (and, I imagine, men too sometimes) not to report sexual assault because they are afraid they won’t be believed, or for the (truthful) accusations to go nowhere because it’s assumed they are making it up. The burden of proof to find someone guilty of sexual assault in countries like Australia is pretty damn high, at least from my uneducated observation. (I am not a lawyer.)
Without developing the technology to read peoples’ minds and / or go back in time to observe the alleged events, I’m not sure what the solution is here besides letting the justice system do its thing and hope the truth of matter comes out one way or the other. And, I suppose, generally just doing all we can to build the kind of society where people are encouraged and expected not to be the kind of psychopaths who sexually assault people or who falsely accuse innocent people of sexual assault, and for those who do either to be punished accordingly.
I don’t believe Hanson nor One Nation have announced any kind of policy remotely associated with any of this, by the way. But I do know the kind of men who tend to instinctively not believe assault accusations made by women – some due to just being assholes, some due to having being subject to the Deeming treatment themselves in the past – and I know which party the Australian ones are likely to be supporting at the moment.
Confessions:
Fucking hell.
Nath:
With the current state of right-wing politics, she probably would have had a better chance of achieving that goal if she’d assaulted someone herself.
36 degrees at Trent Bridge.
Eng V NZ
NZ in front.
2nd highest temp ever for a days test cricket in England.
Peta Credlin has been a huge defender and strategic advisor to Moira Deeming over the duration of the defamation case against John Pesutto, and other crapola.
How is Peta Credlin going to spin this latest imbroglio on hehalf of Deeming now that the party want to part ways with her.
Victoria:
If she’s capable of reading the room, Credlin will probably just coldly cast her aside now that she’s no longer of any value.
If.