Two state polls that have been published this week:
• Pulse Tasmania reports on the quarterly EMRS poll, which features federal as well as state results from Tasmania. The former have Labor on 29%, One Nation on 26%, Liberal on 17% and the Greens on 15%, with a conventional two-party measure having Labor leading 57-43. The report provides no federal result for the Greens, who polled 11.1% at the election. The state results have Liberal up a point on last quarter to 26%, Labor down one to 23%, One Nation up two to 21% and the Greens up two to 16%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Josh Willie as preferred premier has substantially narrowed, from 44-25 to 37-30. All three party leaders have weakened on net favourability, with Rockliff down three to minus seven, Willie down ten to minus 14 and Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff down 11 to minus 16. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 1000.
• The Brisbane Times reports the bi-monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Queensland has the Liberal National Party up four to 34%, Labor up one to 25%, One Nation down four to 20% and the Greens 10%. David Crisafulli’s lead over Steven Miles narrows from 44-20 to 41-22. The poll combines the Queensland responses from the pollster’s last two national surveys, conducted from July 6 to 11 and August 9 to 16, with a sample of 868.
Can we please keep this thread for Queensland and Tasmanian state politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
Queensland where the LNP and One Nation are so close at the state level that the LNP vote is holding up
Just in case anyone missed it, Kevin’s write up on the EMRS poll and Josh Willie’s target of 30 for Labor by Christmas lol
Gave me a chuckle.
Hopefully he gets rolled and Ella Haddad does a deal with the Greens and Independents to take over government down there
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/08/emrs-thirty-or-turkey-by-christmas.html
hBG, Tassie Greens and Labor are mortal enemies in Tasmania. The Economy there is almost entirely based on exploitation of the environment. Either for tourism or digging stuff up and chopping stuff down. As much as Labor/Greens should share power, it’s not going to happen. The ALP, bizarrely, would prefer perpetual opposition.
Makes zero sense MABWM
Greens would prefer to whinge about liberals than support progressive labor policies. End result; the liberals rule enabled by the greens. And then they blame the ALP. For their actions. The greens prefer to have liberals in power.
Pi Labor prefers to have the Liberals in power in Tassie, it’s all very strange
Mind you, saying they have progressive policies down there is way off the mark
Even when the ALP isn’t in power, like right now in Tasmania, the only thing the greens political party operatives attack is the ALP, instead of the NLP government of the day. As you’re doing right now. Are the greens attacking the NLP? Nope. Are the greens attacking White Nation? Nope. You’re attacking the ALP, even when they’re not in power. Because being anti-ALP is more important to greens operatives than any other course of action, because it allows you and them to be in a permanent state of whinge, just like the NLP, and just like White Nation. End result; the liberals rule enabled by the greens. And then they blame the ALP. For their actions. The greens political party operatives prefer to have liberals in power.
The ALP in Tassie is more under the thumb of the local union movement than it is in most parts of the country. Hence, the party has tended to put sustaining jobs ahead of environmental considerations. If by some chance Willie is replaced by Haddad, we will see some greater interest in environmental matters on the part of the party, but don’t expect miracles.
It’s not an attack on Labor to point this out. They don’t make any secret of it: their anti-environmental stance goes back many decades. It saw Premier Doug Lowe backstabbed in 1981 and, more recently, led to the persecution of Lisa Singh and the demise of her political career, even though she was far and away the most charismatic politician that the Tasmanian ALP had come up with since Jim Bacon.
The problem for Labor down here is that, while their position has not changed, the nature of the electorate has changed significantly, largely due to an influx of refugees from the mainland, almost all of whom are university-educated. I rub shoulders with a lot of these people, and I’ve never met one who votes for Labor in state elections. They all either Liberals or Greens (or, more recently, supporters of Peter George). Meanwhile, the size of the traditional Labor support base of blue collar workers, pensioners and the long-term unemployed is steadily dwindling.
Pi, the reason I go on about Labor rather than the Liberals is they could be in power
I don’t see a path for Labor to get there without the Greens unless they are willing to form a grand coalition with the Liberals OR, given the polling, One Nation. Maybe they’d be more comfortable with either of them
TBH they aren’t really giving the Greens and Independents a choice other than to work with the Liberals. Heaven forbid the other option after the next election is a Liberal / One Nation government
Maybe they need some of those moving from the mainland to join the party and get them to change direction MB
So to generalise – maybe only the Liberals actually want to govern. The Hare Clark is too quick to put people in seats, but too tough a barrier to actually getting a governing majority.
The comment about union control is also what I fear in a jurisdiction that is too small and hasn’t grown. Tas should have at least a million people by now if it had done its share of taking the post-war immigration load.
According to Google AI
“Since World War II, Tasmania has attracted approximately 0.8% to 1% of Australia’s total overseas migrant intake. This is significantly lower than its share of the overall Australian population (which hovers around 2% to 2.5%)”
And chopping down trees and digging up dirt will never make you rich, you need actual service industries.
Ireland, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Singapore are all good examples of going all in on services with relatively small populations and land areas. But they require education.
In Tasmania on those figures, Labor, Liberal, and One Nation would on average get two seats each in a Tasmanian seven-seat constituency, with one seat to the Greens. If something like that comes off in an actual election, the result would be a Liberal-One Nation Government, or a Liberal minority Government with the support of One Nation.
I see conservative governments until at least 2032.