Friday miscellany: Morgan poll, preselections, NT by-election (open thread)

Labor up and the Greens down in the weekly Morgan poll, Tasmanian Liberal Senators chosen, internal warfare in the SA Liberal Party, and a by-election on the way in the Northern Territory.

Roy Morgan’s weekly federal poll maintained its volatile form in having Labor up three to 28.5%, after being down two the week before; One Nation down one to 25%; the Coalition up one-and-a-half to 23.5%, reversing its change in the last poll; and the Greens down three after a series of strong results to 12.5%. With the Greens’ loss cancelling out Labor’s gain, Labor’s two-party leads over the Coalition actually narrow slightly, from 52-48 to 51.5-48.5 on previous election preferences and 53-47 to 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation was unchanged at 53-47. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1576.

Also of note:

• Chris Gatenby, former state party president and until recently an adviser to Premier Jeremy Rockliff, was sworn in on Monday as the successor to Tasmanian Liberal Senator Wendy Askew. Gatenby will also lead the party’s Senate ticket at the next election, followed by former state government minister Sarah Courtney, who will presumably be filling Jonno Duniam’s vacancy when he follows through on his recently announced retirement. Third on the ticket is Latrobe councillor Jacki Martin.

Paul Sakkal of Nine Newspapers reports that Nicolle Flint, who held the Adelaide seat of Boothby for the Liberals from 2016 to 2022 and ran unsuccessfully in 2025, is “mulling a preselection challenge” against Tony Pasin, member for the rural seat of Barker. This occurs against a backdrop of discord within the party’s South Australian branch, and its conservative camp in particular, over the bid for the state presidency by Senator Alex Antic, a close ally of Pasin’s and a rival of Flint’s. Mike Smithson at InDaily reports on ongoing speculation as to who might run against Antic when the matter is determined at the branch’s annual general meeting on September 19, one possibility being Flint herself. The meeting will also determine the order of the Senate ticket for the next election, raising the possibility of incumbents Andrew McLachlan, Kerrynne Liddle and Leah Blyth being shunted in favour of a candidate aligned with Antic.

• A by-election will be held for one of the 25 seats in the Northern Territory parliament on September 12 following the resignation of Yiŋiya Mark Guyula, who has held the eastern Arnhem Land seat of Mulka (formerly Nhulunbuy) as an independent since 2016.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,150 thoughts on “Friday miscellany: Morgan poll, preselections, NT by-election (open thread)”

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  1. nadiasays:
    Monday, August 24, 2026 at 8:22 pm
    Ven,

    Latest Texas Senate poll

    * Dems (Talarico) 46
    * GOP (Paxton) 47

    Link: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-paxton-and-talarico/

    nadia
    Texas is 3rd or 4th biggest state in US, from population and electoral importance point of view.
    Since, Texas and now Florida and Ohio moved away from Democrats, it has become very difficult for Democrats to win nationwide elections.
    That is the reason Republicans through out US behave in such crazy way.
    Texas, Ohio, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina remained steadfast with Trump in all 3 elections he contested.
    That is the reason Biden won only by 45000 votes
    I repeat, about 50% voters are MAGA.

  2. @sprocket_ They’re all usually safe Republican senate seats that have a realistic chance of going to the Democrats in 2026.

  3. For those who tend to excited about Trump being impeached just a reminder that it takes 2/3 of the Senate to vote yea and so even if the Dems get 52 senate seats (unlikely) there will be no impeachment.

  4. Griffsays:
    Monday, August 24, 2026 at 8:24 pm
    Confessions says:
    Monday, August 24, 2026 at 7:56 pm

    Opposition Leader Angus Taylor arranged $33,000 in federal government grants for the religious charity providing food for his Pollie Pedal bike ride, with the money coming from the heavily criticised Morrison-era “stronger communities” program.

    Taylor has defended the Rapid Relief Team charity, which is part of the controversial Plymouth Brethren Christian Church. The church ran an undisclosed multimillion-dollar pro-Peter Dutton campaign at the last election, which included paying neo-Nazis and other far-right figures to disrupt campaign events.

    The Brethren charity is a major sponsor of the charity bike ride and is supplying breakfast each morning.

    Taylor, who is on the ride with Liberal Party federal president Tony Abbott, brushed aside questions on Monday about the church, instead praising the charity’s work.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/angus-taylor-organised-taxpayer-grants-for-brethren-charity-backing-pollie-pedal-20260824-p60r1v.html

    Interesting who the Liberals are willing to get into bed with.

    ________

    Angus fell off his bike twice.

    But Angus is not ‘bike boy’. Yet he fell twice although he was not hit by Andrews car. 🙂

  5. Thomas Brian Muttersays:
    Monday, August 24, 2026 at 8:38 pm
    @sprocket_ They’re all usually safe Republican senate seats that have a realistic chance of going to the Democrats in 2026.

    That is not the case with Michigan.

  6. “As per reports, Natalie soothes his ego (to put it mildly) and treats him like demi-god.
    That traditional Republican voters like beef producers have rebelled against him must have upset him. So, how does Natalie soothes his ego in this situation?”

    My guess she tells him he is right and they are wrong. Which I suspect is what she always does in these circumstances. Independent of what position he has taken on any given day.

    So for the Iran war she has probably told him he was right to threaten to blow up Iran about as often as she has told him he was right to have a peace deal with them. Depending on which of these two was his position on that day.

  7. “But Angus is not ‘bike boy’. Yet he fell twice although he was not hit by Andrews car. ”

    Did he try to ride up Dan’s stairs and fail?

    All will be revealed when the Murdoch press exclusively interviews Taylor’s bike.

  8. Maine, Michigan and Alaska all border Canada – and Donald Trump has restarted an idiotic trade war, belittling the proud Canucks, telling them to stop speaking French and generally showing their neighbouring US states what an asshole he is.

    Political Pushback: Democratic and independent U.S. lawmakers have openly labeled the tariff strategies as “really, really stupid” and counterproductive, warning they harm local small businesses and working families.

    Public Frustration: Citizens and business owners near the border have expressed widespread exasperation over the political posturing, viewing the trade strain as an unnecessary form of economic bullying that hurts communities on both sides.

  9. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, August 24, 2026 at 8:32 pm
    Nadia

    Mark Bouris is hardly ALP leaning. His own political description of himself is:

    He is, he says, “definitely not centre left like the Coalition… I am more centre right. I’m left of Trump but right of Turnbull.”
    ===================
    OK, that makes more sense then.
    One right wing podcaster interviewing another right wing podcaster and somehow Albo got caught up in the middle of it all with the melons/boobs thing alongside shagging Kylie Minogue and scheduling sex with his wife (apparently after watching a Rabbitoh’s match). This is so embarassing.

    Looks like a set up, which Albo’s staff let him walk right into.

  10. sprocket_says:
    Monday, August 24, 2026 at 8:58 pm
    Maine, Michigan and Alaska all border Canada – and Donald Trump has restarted an idiotic trade war, belittling the proud Canucks, telling them to stop speaking French
    ========================================

    How do we think this plays in Louisiana?

    The last time USA tried to expand by invading Canadian territories in 1812 they had the French on their side and they still lost.

  11. As per reports, Natalie soothes his ego (to put it mildly) and treats him like demi-god…

    No less than Trump would expect, apart from the “demi-“ prefix…

  12. “Australian Story” tonight featured a warts-and-all account of Joyce’s political life, even showing footage of him lying on the ground, the worse for wear. Interestingly, Hanson declined an offer to appear. Their egos are bound to inevitably clash.

  13. nadia

    Out of interest – what the heck is a data centre? What goes on there?

    Consumption of electricity. Just like bitcoin before it, that’s all it’s for.

    Now ask yourself why.

  14. Player Onesays:
    Monday, August 24, 2026 at 9:29 pm
    nadia

    Out of interest – what the heck is a data centre? What goes on there?

    Consumption of electricity. Just like bitcoin before it, that’s all it’s for.

    Now ask yourself why.
    ================================================

    Have you ever asked where this post of yours is stored. My guess what you just posted and my reply to it is on a server somewhere. Could it be considered a data centre too, where this server physically exists?

  15. Griff

    Just imagine how good Albo would be without such a handicap.

    Indeed. He might have been a decent Labor PM.

    How is Constance going these days by the way?

    Why would I give a fuck?

  16. Entropy

    Have you ever asked where this post of yours is stored. My guess what you just posted and my reply to it is on a server somewhere. Could it be considered a data centre too, where this server physically exists?

    You really don’t understand what’s really going on here, do you?

  17. Player Onesays:
    Monday, August 24, 2026 at 9:36 pm
    Entropy

    Have you ever asked where this post of yours is stored. My guess what you just posted and my reply to it is on a server somewhere. Could it be considered a data centre too, where this server physically exists?
    ================================================
    You really don’t understand what’s really going on here, do you?

    —————————————————-

    Maybe not, I believe my emails, online banks and online retail I use. Probably uses space on servers in data centres. Where do you believe they exist instead?

  18. Entropy

    Maybe not, I believe my emails, online banks and online retail I use. Probably uses space on servers in data centres. Where do you believe they exist instead?

    Honestly. Do you really think the growth in data centres is to support your emails, online banking and shopping?

    https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai/energy-demand-from-ai

    Our Base Case finds that global electricity consumption for data centres is projected to double to reach around 945 TWh by 2030 in the Base Case, representing just under 3% of total global electricity consumption in 2030. From 2024 to 2030, data centre electricity consumption grows by around 15% per year, more than four times faster than the growth of total electricity consumption from all other sectors. However, in the wider context, a 3% share in 2030 means that data centre share in global electricity demand remains limited.

    Electricity consumption in accelerated servers, which is mainly driven by AI adoption, is projected to grow by 30% annually in the Base Case, while conventional server electricity consumption growth is slower at 9% per year. Accelerated servers account for almost half of the net increase in global data centre electricity consumption, while conventional servers account for only around 20%. Other IT equipment, and infrastructure (cooling and other infrastructure) demand account for around 10% and 20% of the net increase respectively. All three types of data centres – enterprise, colocation and server provider, and hyperscale – contribute to the growth in electricity consumption.

    So … given how flaky AI has demonstrated itself to be, ask yourself why we continue to pursue this chimera.

    FFS, wake up and smell the fossil fuels.

  19. PP
    Where are you? Trump so called economic policy is in shambles

    Trump and Bessent are losers. They don’t know or don’t care how the economy works.
    Unfortunately, the rest of the world is in for a rough ride.

    Financial Times:
    Trump’s economic challenge: $40tn debt, 6.7% mortgages and $5 diesel
    The president’s agenda is under strain as the Iran war pushes up prices and America’s finances worsen

    lmost two years since Donald Trump won election pledging to slash prices and fix the US’s public finances, his Iran war and tax cuts have delivered a different outcome: record-high debt, soaring fuel costs and punishing mortgage rates. Investors pushed yields on long-term US debt to a 19-year high on Tuesday amid alarm at the weight of public borrowing and the war’s inflationary fallout. Trump’s Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, rushed to soothe markets a day later, unveiling a programme to “at least double” purchases of long-term debt and plans soon to announce steps to tackle the deficit. The latest market intervention did little to lower Treasury yields and pushed the dollar lower. Bessent insisted on Thursday that markets had “gotten ahead of themselves”. Trump says the economy is “booming”, as shown by stock market highs.

  20. Strange Fruit

    Data centres are some grand conspiracy designed to facilitate the continued burning of fossil fuels?

    So you think it is just a convenient coincidence?

    Fuck me dead!

  21. Player Onesays:
    Monday, August 24, 2026 at 10:03 pm
    Strange Fruit

    So you think it is just a convenient coincidence?

    —————

    No, I think it is stupid.

  22. Politics & Poll Tracker
    @PollTracker2024

    Axios: Dems turning more GOP Senate strongholds into midterm battlegrounds

    “Ten weeks from Election Day, the Senate battlefield is sprawling, scattered — and stretching deep into Trump country.”

    “In a normal year, Republicans wouldn’t think twice about Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Mississippi, Nebraska or Texas. This isn’t a normal year.”

    “Republicans expect all six states to revert to their MAGA mean. But they’re not betting on it. The fact that they’re still in play has turned the midterms into a game of chess, giving Democrats more openings to attack — and leaving Republicans with more pieces to defend.”

    axios.com/2026/08/23/sen…
    Illustration of a combination campaign button reading “VOTE” and a compass.
    Dems turning more GOP Senate strongholds into midterm battlegrounds
    From axios.com
    2:04 AM · Aug 24, 2026
    34.1K
    Views

    https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2091693048623186145?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2091693048623186145%7Ctwgr%5Ec6f1a65ce6e13fd0086a77a6ad06f95780bb31b5%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2026%2F8%2F24%2F800088201%2Fcommunity%2Fabbreviated-pundit-roundup%2F

    I believe it when I see it.

  23. Player Onesays:
    Monday, August 24, 2026 at 10:03 pm
    Strange Fruit

    Data centres are some grand conspiracy designed to facilitate the continued burning of fossil fuels?
    ================================================

    I thought those calling for huge increases to the Australian strategic fossil fuel reserves are more likely involved in such a conspiracy.

  24. Although, if you fatalistic theory about the end of all things comes true, we will all be living in a fiery hell world before most of them can get up and running.

  25. P1

    What if this blog is hosted on a server in a data centre?

    Oh, now I get it. Data centres(which have been exponentially growing since the onset of the web) are a conspiracy to emit CO2. You are so cooked

  26. subgeometersays:
    Monday, August 24, 2026 at 10:12 pm
    P1

    What if this blog is hosted on a server in a data centre?

    Oh, now I get it. Data centres(which have been exponentially growing since the onset of the web) are a conspiracy to emit CO2. You are so cooked
    ===================================================

    What if P1 is a troll bot hosted in a data centre. Who is rebelling against his own existence?

    Possible movie title:
    “The ghost in the machine ain’t happy”

  27. It has been raining solidly all evening. 60mm worth. 700mm for winter so far. Not bad at all. Even some rain up in the Flinders this year.

  28. Hanrahan Katichsays:
    Monday, August 24, 2026 at 10:39 pm
    It has been raining solidly all evening. 60mm worth. 700mm for winter so far. Not bad at all. Even some rain up in the Flinders this year.
    ===============================================

    You’ll all be rooned by that amount of rain.

    “It pelted, pelted all day long,
    A-singing at its work,
    Till every heart took up the song
    Way out to Back-o’-Bourke.

    And every creek a banker ran,
    And dams filled overtop;
    “We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
    “If this rain doesn’t stop.”

  29. Player One says:
    Monday, August 24, 2026 at 9:34 pm
    Griff

    Just imagine how good Albo would be without such a handicap.

    Indeed. He might have been a decent Labor PM.

    How is Constance going these days by the way?

    Why would I give a fuck?

    ____________

    First time you swore at me. Your choice of language suffices as a response 🙂

  30. P1@3:30pm

    “Driven by climate change and global warming, the phenomenon of the ‘once-in-a-generation’ heatwave is now occurring nearly annual,” he said.

    That is the cause and effect of Climate change acceleration.

  31. Hanrahan Katich says:
    Monday, August 24, 2026 at 8:14 pm

    You are over egging the maximum viewer numbers by about 400,0000.

    The WNBA is losing USD $40-$50 per year.

    Not sure why you are referring to Sebastian Cole. Kirsty Coventry has been President of the IOC for over a year and has overseen the introduction of the SRY Gene testing for female athletes at the Olympics.

    It’s not a Pandora’s box. It’s a straight forward once off cheek swab.

  32. Impeachment requires majority vote in the House of Representatives, conviction requires the 2/3 of those present in the Senate.

  33. Tonight’s 4 Corners episode did not introduce anything new about Defence lobbying, but catalogued its extent in Canberra. It did little for the public reputation of former politicians or former ADF leaders. They both came across as self serving individuals with no concern for the national interest.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-24/defence-insiders-now-lobbying-for-industry-analysis-shows/107046326

    I know from several friends in the ADF that this behavior damages morale and lowers confidence in ADF leadership among junior officers and enlisted ranks. Sadly I see no evidence Albo or Marles has any intention of fixing this problem.

  34. John in 6003says:
    Monday, August 24, 2026 at 11:47 pm
    Impeachment requires majority vote in the House of Representatives, conviction requires the 2/3 of those present in the Senate.
    ==================================================

    Yes, dementia will get Diaper Don before the Senate does. His brain is in even worse condition than his bowels.

  35. Labor pre selects 35 year old Yolngu nurse practitioner Yiwarr McGrath for the Mulka byelection. A former NT Young Territorian of the Year, Yiwarr has declared he wants to follow in the footsteps of retiring Mulka independent Mark Guyula Yuninga and to fight for the same health and educational services for the bush as enjoyed by Australians living in the cities. The CLP Chief Minister has set a very short timetable for the election and pre polling and remote mobile polling begin next Monday before the static booth in Nhulunby on September 12. The CLP has yet to announce its candidate. But has indicated it will after nominations with the NT Electoral Commission close on Thursday.

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