Nine Newspapers reports the latest monthly Resolve Strategic poll records no change on voting intention since last month, with Labor on 28%, One Nation on 26%, the Coalition on 23% and the Greens on 12%. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is down two to 37%, with poor and very poor steady on 53%. Angus Taylor is down a point on both to 40% and 33%, while Pauline Hanson is at 46% (up one on last month) and 41% (last month’s result was not reported). A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese down a point to 32%, Angus Taylor down two to 19% and Pauline Hanson up one to 26%. Further detail can be found on a redesigned Resolve Monitor display on the Nine Newspapers sites.
A series of questions the series has posed since the May budget offer the government some encouragement. Over four monthly iterations, support for winding back negative gearing has gone from 35% to 33% to 37% to 35%, with opposition going from 21% to 26% to 23% to 20%; while support for changes to the capital gains tax discount has gone from 36% to 31% to 35% to 35%, with opposition going from 21% to 31% to 24% to 21%. The poll also finds 60% support for the objective of bringing house prices down, down one on last month, with only 10% opposed, up one. Labor does less well out of a question on its handling of immigration: 26% says it has handled it in “a carefully planned and managed way”, with 54% rating it “unplanned and unmanaged”. Fifty-six per cent said they would support stricter visa controls, with only 14% opposed.
The poll was conducted Sunday to Saturday from a sample of 2256, a temporary increase on the usual 1600 or so. This allows the surveys to double as monthly polls of state voting intention in Victoria ahead of its election in late November, which will presumably follow over the coming days. On that note, a Victorian poll from DemosAU/Premier National was published today, which I will have a post on overnight.
Scott:
The opinion polling doesn’t assume anything. It simply presents voting intention figures based on the answers given by a representative sample.
Sure, the methodology or weighting or whatever could be off, but we have no way of knowing whether that is or isn’t the case at the moment.
What assumptions are you suggesting the polling companies are making, and how exactly are those assumptions shifting the numbers from what they apparently should be?
Timmy oh you those people who think there should be no government help for people well I hate to tell you this but governments are here to help people and having a law that says that companies need to put some money into their employees retirement is a good idea not everyone is smart enough we’ll have the money set aside for retirement and also I don’t like the idea of elderly people being in poverty
Asha honestly I think we shouldn’t be making predictions this far out to an election remember 2019 and 2025 also with how the world’s going you think labour would be doing way worse
Australia is an outlier in that we are predicted in the future to spend a smaller proportion of government spending on aged pensions. This is dramatically different to all Western European countries that are struggling already to pay pensions and looking down the barrel of an ageing population and a massive increase in pension outlays with fewer workers per pensioner.
Australia’s public pension spending is 2.3 per cent of GDP, down from 2.8 per cent in 1994-95 despite the population’s aging over that period. The OECD average is around 9 per cent, and Italy and Greece spend roughly 16 per cent.
Treasury projects Age Pension spending will fall from 2.3 to 2.0 per cent of GDP over the next 40 years, even as the population aged 65 and over is projected to grow substantially. Average pension spending by other OECD countries, by contrast, is expected to grow.
https://www.superannuation.asn.au/media-release/superannuation-is-one-of-australias-greatest-policy-successes/
Timmy
Here’s a list of countries, ranked by the amount of government pension they pay-
https://www.blacktowerfm.com/best-countries-for-pensions-in-the-world/
We rate eighth.
There are numerous other links I can supply which show that other developed countries provide pensions, if you need proof of something which basically doesn’t need it.
Timmy
Wanting to cut the aged pension and abolish compulsory superannuation are contradictory policy aims, the only way to cut welfare spending is to grow Australia’s wealth and only through access to financial markets and compounding will you cut welfare dependency.
Asha says:
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 8:47 pm
Scott:
Sure, the methodology or weighting or whatever could be off, but we have no way of knowing whether that is or isn’t the case at the moment.
What assumptions are you suggesting the polling companies are making, and how exactly are those assumptions shifting the numbers from what they apparently should be?
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Similar on what some where assuming about the voice referendum impact at the federal election , this time they are assuming with one nation
No Favoursays:
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 8:46 pm
Nadia – Scott has recently suggested One Nation could win Kew in Victoria. His predictions aren’t always based on the numbers – or even reality.
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+1
Scott:
In that particular case, Freshwater (and maybe other pollsters, I can’t quite recall?) were weighting their polls based on how the sample said they had voted in the Voice referendum. There’s currently no evidence anything like that has been happening in any polls since the last election.
Are you suggesting that the polls are presently being weighted in One Nation and the Coalitions’ favour?
Asha – Yes, it was Freshwater who was weighting by how respondents said they voted in the referendum. Of course, the issue with that was those were willing to admitted to voting No was different than those that voted No.
The pollster could be weighting by how they say they voted at the last election and that has a similar issue.
Weighting by age and sex is less problematic.
Based on current polling, with the three highest parties with primary under 30%, the result for preference allocations will be crucial. It’s all a bit of a grey area although due to the number of seats now held by Labor they would be favored to win in 2028 based on current polling.
Personally I have been confident the ON polling would slowly go backwards although that confidence is being whittled away with time.
Landlord of the Yearsays:
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 8:58 pm
Timmy
Wanting to cut the aged pension and abolish compulsory superannuation are contradictory policy aims,
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Unless the aim is to one day achieve a large number of retired people living in poverty on the streets. As it is certainly a good way to achieve that aim.
Well if all us oldies are forced to sell our houses and live on the streets it should help the housing shortage. That should make both the right and left happy.
Fargo61says:
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 7:27 pm
Good news from Denys Davydov, the biggest Wildberries site in Russia has been toasted. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohICJHCN0_E
================================================
Kremlin statement: Superficial damage only, should buff out.
See Wildberries is still operating.
“AI Overview
You can buy activated charcoal products on the online marketplace
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davidwh says:
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 9:36 pm
Well if all us oldies are forced to sell our houses and live on the streets it should help the housing shortage. That should make both the right and left happy.
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Does your house have a shed? You might be allowed to stay there for a small fee. Not too close to the house, mind you 🙂
Old people belong in death factories making Soylent Green for the rest of us.
Just ask Timmeh!
Because of my age workplace superannuation was not available to me until I was in my 40s.
Thirty years later and retired I have a modest income from superannuation topped up by part age pension.
That saves the government some money.
My son has had workplace superannuation all his working life and as a result is not likely to qualify for the age pension. Another saving for the government. And when the time comes there will be millions like him.
Of course if he was allowed to and of a mind to use some of his superannuation to buy a house he would likely to end up reliant on part of the age pension, costing the government money.
Are Hanson and Bragg saying that’s a good thing?
Griff we have a garage but it’s part of the house. Thinking it’s a two car garage so we could live in one half.
No making Soylent Green for me. I’ll take the Logan’s Run solution. At least that was quick.
Seriously though Australia has excellent superannuation and government pension schemes. So why mess with them except to fix any obvious problems?
The polls have an uncanny ability to make sure no-one is happy at the moment, but i reckon the ALP would be less displeased than the others on these numbers. I think they’d be very reassured by the polling on attitudes to house prices falling. My interpretation is that this poll really supports my personal opinion that ultimately attitudes to immigration are the dominant political issue at the moment. In polling by issues of importance, I think folks blame immigration for a lot of stuff like cost of housing, cost of living, stalling living standards, but are reluctant to come out and name immigration.
I also don’t think cutting immigration is going to be nearly as painful for the ALP, especially some Sydney seats with very large immigrant populations, as the media or ethnic community spokespeople might suggest. Sure, so folks might move from the ALP to the Greens and independents, but ultimately, their preferences will still fall to the ALP. They aren’t going to switch their vote to ON or Liberal.
@Quentin Rountree
Yep, this far out impossible to say
Previous forecast by myself six months out:
2019 – yeah Scotty is gone.. (result: Scotty won)
2022 – oooh not sure, maybe a hung parliament (result: ALP majority)
2025 – oooh not sure, but looks like the conservative has a way in (historic defeat of LNP)
Point being that the deciding factors can emerged late.
Timmy at 8.45pm
“No other developed country in the Western World funds their elders aged care to such an extent from the public purse.”
Can you give us a list of countries that don’t fund aged care?
Superannuation is not on top of wages it is part of it. Wage rises were forgone for the increase in super.
However it is not a big saving as the ATO misses out on a lot of revenue due to the contribution rate being 15% and not the employees marginal rate.
If employees could opt out of super they would complain like hell when they retired and had far less money but being Australians they would whinge about it and blame Albo.
Timmy has probably done his usual trick of dropping some idiotic right wing loonery and as soon as sane people respond he disappears for 24 hours or so.
Note that right wingers can never answer questions about policy.
It’s always good for a laugh.
Even more hilarity on the way, apparently Pauline Pantsdown is making comeback. Even better, apparently, it’s a bloke. Won’t that excite the anti trans mob.
The Wombat says:
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 10:14 pm
I also don’t think cutting immigration is going to be nearly as painful for the ALP, especially some Sydney seats with very large immigrant populations, as the media or ethnic community spokespeople might suggest. Sure, so folks might move from the ALP to the Greens and independents, but ultimately, their preferences will still fall to the ALP. They aren’t going to switch their vote to ON or Liberal.
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Agree with the first sentence, but not second or third. While a pre-pandemic article, I suspect the vast majority in large migrant communities feel similar to as expressed in the following:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-09/tarneit-suburb-on-melbourne-fringe-feeling-growing-pains/11537562
I suspect there are more migrants holding their noses and switching to One Nation than to the Greens or independents (unless they are lower-migration independents).
Given up watching insiders, it’s window into how bad our political reporting has become. I am told second hand it was wall to wall melons. If they can’t take themselves seriously how do they expect others to do so.
nadia says:
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 5:38 pm
Federal figures coming out of Victoria are less glamourous however for the ALP.
{Once again, comparison with the 12-Jul Fed Resolve poll}
* ALP 24 (-3). This is shite given Fed Labor holds alot of divisions in Victoria.
* LNP 28 (+3)
* ON 23 (-1)
* GRN 13 (nc)
* Oth/Ind 12 (+1)
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I don’t think this has the federal implications you suggest, Nadia. An old, tired and frayed State Government looks like it is about to receive the Royal Order of the Boot. The incoming Liberal-ON government will do what Liberal Government’s always do and by 2028 the Liberal and One Nation Brands will be trashed in Victoria.
Old people won’t be living on the streets.
Their children and relatives will be looking after them. Legislate for it and docking the pay of those who don’t.
And there is the reverse mortgage.