Nine Newspapers reports the latest monthly Resolve Strategic poll records no change on voting intention since last month, with Labor on 28%, One Nation on 26%, the Coalition on 23% and the Greens on 12%. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is down two to 37%, with poor and very poor steady on 53%. Angus Taylor is down a point on both to 40% and 33%, while Pauline Hanson is at 46% (up one on last month) and 41% (last month’s result was not reported). A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese down a point to 32%, Angus Taylor down two to 19% and Pauline Hanson up one to 26%. Further detail can be found on a redesigned Resolve Monitor display on the Nine Newspapers sites.
A series of questions the series has posed since the May budget offer the government some encouragement. Over four monthly iterations, support for winding back negative gearing has gone from 35% to 33% to 37% to 35%, with opposition going from 21% to 26% to 23% to 20%; while support for changes to the capital gains tax discount has gone from 36% to 31% to 35% to 35%, with opposition going from 21% to 31% to 24% to 21%. The poll also finds 60% support for the objective of bringing house prices down, down one on last month, with only 10% opposed, up one. Labor does less well out of a question on its handling of immigration: 26% says it has handled it in “a carefully planned and managed way”, with 54% rating it “unplanned and unmanaged”. Fifty-six per cent said they would support stricter visa controls, with only 14% opposed.
The poll was conducted Sunday to Saturday from a sample of 2256, a temporary increase on the usual 1600 or so. This allows the surveys to double as monthly polls of state voting intention in Victoria ahead of its election in late November, which will presumably follow over the coming days. On that note, a Victorian poll from DemosAU/Premier National was published today, which I will have a post on overnight.
Weeks of MELONGATE have failed to move the needle.
My instinct, flawed as it is, is that this is a poll unlikely to be replicated at an election when government is at stake and actual policies have been enunciated and analysed.
Roughly a 75% chance that the 2028 election campaign resembles something like this.
https://i.imgur.com/Qk9xFLc.mp4
This is good news and represents a step in the right direction from government policies coming into effect.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-marked-down-on-migration-as-delayed-visa-shake-up-approaches-20260816-p60oq7.html
I think “condemned” is too strong a word. Besides, there’ll probably be an announcement by Labor on immigration this week, which was delayed due
to Albanese being on vacation in Tassie last week. Hanson has upped the ante by proposing a blanket ban on those from countries that DFAT has listed as “Do Not Travel”, including Lebanon, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Sudan & Somalia.
As usual, very interesting from Boyle. Why did Japan and the US join up to spend over $80 billion to prop up the Yen. Will it work. And why does it matter?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yh18YXKMk3g
QLD Federal voting data
* ALP 31
* ON 32
* LNP 22
* GRN 9 (this primary is shite for the Greens)
* Ind/Oth 6
ON + LNP = 54
ALP + GRN = 40
The Federal ALP needs to remember that there are a lot of QLD seats they picked up last election, which may be in the cross-hairs today, notably:
* Blair
* Bonner
* Dickson
* Forde
* Leichhardt
* Petrie
Also, I think Maranoa and Kennedy will be ON pick ups next Fed election.
I think time might be up for Bob in Kennedy.
China, 1987–2024: NASA images show more than 820 square kilometres of farmland transformed by the world’s largest cluster of plastic greenhouses
https://timesofindia-indiatimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/timesofindia.indiatimes.com/science/china-19872024-nasa-images-show-more-than-820-square-kilometres-of-farmland-transformed-by-the-worlds-largest-cluster-of-plastic-greenhouses/amp_articleshow/133233320.cms?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17868668319287&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Ftimesofindia.indiatimes.com%2Fscience%2Fchina-19872024-nasa-images-show-more-than-820-square-kilometres-of-farmland-transformed-by-the-worlds-largest-cluster-of-plastic-greenhouses%2Farticleshow%2F133233320.cms
Russia?
I’m surprised to hear that Russia is on her list. I thought Hanson was a bona fide Russiaphile.
#theyresowhite
I’m not getting caught up in speculation about Victorian divisions falling to the Coalition, but the Federal & State primaries for the ALP in Victoria, on today’s two polls, are not exactly gold standard.
23% + 24% respectively.
Probably best for the Federal ALP that Victoria falls to the Libs. The Libs enact cuts etc etc, and there is a positive blow back to the Federal ALP after…..similar to when Kennett got in in 1992, started sacking the public sector workforce and in 1993, Keating picked up divisions in Victoria and held on for another 3 years.
There are some complications for Mr Albanese atm. QLD looking grim. Victoria looking grim. NSW looking good.
Ven – I think you are 95% confirmed. I am 99% confirmed.
Labor have been “condemned” in this poll in the same sense that the Coalition was “condemned” by a 55-45 2PP vote against them in the poll that counted in May 2025 and then “condemned” time and time again by poll results of 54-58% against them in the year or so that followed, although I don’t think that any 9News journalist chose to use that term.
nadia says:
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 7:02 pm
QLD Federal voting data
* ALP 31
* ON 32
* LNP 22
* GRN 9 (this primary is shite for the Greens)
* Ind/Oth 6
ON + LNP = 54
ALP + GRN = 40
———————–
One nation getting LNP voters , which will not do one nation or LNP any good in Qld, to take much ground off Labor.
All this will do is swap LNP seat to either one nation or Labor, other non lib/nats
, Labor and the greens vote in QLD not much different to the 25 federal election
2025 Qld Federal election result
LNP 34.91%
Labor 30.98%
The greens 11.76%
One Nation 7.84%
Bob Katter will be turning 83 around the time that the next election is due, so that is quite likely.
nadia says:
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 7:12 pm
I’m not getting caught up in speculation about Victorian divisions falling to the Coalition, but the Federal & State primaries for the ALP in Victoria, on today’s two polls, is not exactly gold standard.
23% + 24% respectively.
————————–
in Victoria , it is not looking that crash hot for the federal lib/nats either
2025 federal election result primary vote
Labor Primary vote 33.35%
Lib/nats combined 32.20%
Like in the Victorian state poll
Lib/nats are going be struggling with swings against them . they need more than 32%(state) and 28% (federal)what the opinion polls are showing
I think this poll illustrates that Labor has to play a long game. The budget was correct to address long term issues that demanded attention. Those changes and fuel tax cuts addressed cost of living in the short and long term.
In the short term world circumstances are difficult and Australia cannot escape that. I think immigration is an issue that rears its head when people feel stressed. When times are good people mind less.
The budget changes should improve housing affordability over years to come and Labor will have achievements to sell in 2028. But in the mean time its tough, unless/until we see sanity prevail in the Middle East (and USA).
Good news from Denys Davydov, the biggest Wildberries site in Russia has been toasted. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohICJHCN0_E
I have never figured out why the far-right in the US and Oz are so keen on attacking trans people. Do they have an explainable basis for this or is it just one element of their push for extreme control of peoples’ private lives?
The Qld By-election , which was held in a Labor seat.
One nation didn’t bother to put in a candidate , Hypothetically they would have split the LNP primary vote with them , may have been worried Labor margin would have likely been bigger
Kevin Bonham: ResolvePM ALP 28 L-NP 23 ONP 26 Grn 12 Ind 7 Others 4
My 2PP estimate on these primaries 51.7 to ALP (+.2)
My ALP vs ON estimate 51.9 to ALP (+.3)
Steve777 says:
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 7:14 pm
I think “condemned” is too strong a word…
Labor have been “condemned” in this poll in the same sense that the Coalition was “condemned” by a 55-45 2PP vote against them in the poll that counted in May 2025 and then “condemned” time and time again by poll results of 54-58% against them in the year or so that followed, although I don’t think that any 9News journalist chose to use that term.
========
The journo might be a bit hysterical, but the polling numbers are brutal.
Victoria holds a lot of Federal Divisions for Labor in the Federal Parliament (27 out of 38 divisions).
The state and federal polling for the ALP, coming from Victoria, is not good.
That is a heck of a lot of seats to lose in Victoria, if this poll holds true.
Add the six QLD divisions (seats) I highlighted at 7.02pm, then we have quite a few divisions in play atm.
Regardless, I accept, that the next Federal election is due in 1 year and 8 months, so plenty of time for Federal Labor to get things sorted out.
With regard to Federal Polling, I look at the state figures and where Labor has the most to lose.
Victoria is at the hightide mark for Federal Labor. So is QLD to be frank. Likewise WA.
Goodness forbid if the WA/GST fiasco takes hold. This could cost Federal Labor a lot of Perth based divisions, if the “GST thing” gets out of hand.
The W.A. state district of Secret Harbour may be a warning sign on 29-August.
nadia
Currently in Queensland
16 LNP, 12 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 Katter
I think on current trends the LNP would be in big trouble if a federal election were held now. I think we could end up with
8 LNP, 10 ON, 10 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 Katter
So Labor would take a hit but the LNP would lose lots of long held ‘safe’ seats. One Nation would even be touch and go to win Groom in Toowoomba.
The safer the seat for the LNP, I think it is almost the more likely it would be to fall to One Nation. One Nation could get primaries of 35 plus, and knock the LNP down to third and get their preferences to win the seats.
Nadia
The resolve poll for qld , Showing
0% swing against Labor
13% swing against LNP
The opinion polling are only assuming, which no evidence has been seen yet , that lib/nats would be helped by one nation.
The only evidence was the S.A state election , where one nation gain primary votes off liberal party , and won liberal party held seats.
Federal by-election in farrer , same result as seats in south Australian election
Kirsdarke:
This is what I was thinking:
https://youtu.be/2Z–tEugtWk?si=GlYe5itAPlkX8_XA
The attacks on trans people in Aus are nowhere near as bad as they are in the US where states legislate against trans rights on the flimsiest of pretence.
We’re not as bad here in that regard. But still, I understand why trans people feel the need to be vigilant.
It’s still surreal to see right-wing populism being as ingrained into Australian politics as it is right now given that 2025 was supposed to be a repudiation of that style of politics, and yet nowadays 1/4 Australians are voting that way.
Rocket Rocket says:
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 7:41 pm
nadia
Currently in Queensland
16 LNP, 12 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 Katter
============
Rocket,
The recent DemosAU MRP had the following figures out of Kennedy (Katters seat)
* ON 41%
* Bob 25%
* ALP 13%
* LNP 13%
* GRN 8%
Link: https://demosau.com/news/new-mrp-model-points-to-hung-parliament/
He lost a state seat recently in QLD – it’s hard to fight the tide.
Happy to be proven wrong, but I think Bob is gone in Kennedy at the next election.
Single seat polling is notoriously unreliable.
Scott says:
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 7:43 pm
Nadia
The resolve poll for qld , Showing
0% swing against Labor
13% swing against LNP……
============
Scott,
Could you kindly stop putting a film over the raw numbers please. You are not normally like this.
0% swing against Labor
13% swing against LNP……
…and the bit you forgot…..
24.16% swing to O.N.
Please stop doing this.
“I have never figured out why the far-right in the US and Oz are so keen on attacking trans people. Do they have an explainable basis for this or is it just one element of their push for extreme control of peoples’ private lives?”
An age old divide and conquer tactic, and a standard distraction from the fact that the planet’s wealth continues to concentrate into the hands of a handful of crusty old pedos while the planet’s ability to sustain human life as we know it continues to erode (the forces pushing trans panic have no plan to address the aforementioned issues, so need other ways to activate the amygdala’s of their voters).
Thomas Brian Mutter honestly I think it’s more that the liberal parties losing voters who are already conservative to a more Conservative party it’s like when the teals took the lunch off the liberals it’s basically just people who are joining a party that basically suits their beliefs
Nadia I don’t want to be rude but Scott has a point in Queensland one nation is more of a problem for the liberals then labour basically it’s more regional well you probably know that centrally I think Scott sayings that one nation’s probably doing better and regional areas of Queensland I doubt that doing good in the cities also it’s mmm what 20 months to election I think we know last time not make predictions
Fargo61says:
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 7:27 pm
Good news from Denys Davydov, the biggest Wildberries site in Russia has been toasted. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohICJHCN0_E
======================================================
An extremely impressive and successful uploading of Wildberries to a cloud based operation.
With the numbers as they are right now, this is my prediction for the 2028 Australian Federal Election:
ALP: 86 seats
LNP: 25 seats
PHON: 17 seats
GRN: 4 seats
CSA: 2 seats
T-IND: 11 seats
IND: 3 seats
KAP: 1 seat
CA: 1 seat
Scott,
I have you down as a good faith poster, and not as a “propaganda pisspot”.
I have access to a calculator, as do others.
Quentin Rountree says:
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 8:17 pm
Nadia I don’t want to be rude but Scott has a point in Queensland one nation is more of a problem for the liberals then labour basically it’s more regional well you probably know that centrally I think Scott sayings that one nation’s probably doing better and regional areas of Queensland I doubt that doing good in the cities also it’s mmm what 20 months to election I think we know last time not make predictions
============
Yes, true QR, but the polling figures out of Victoria & QLD are not flash for the ALP.
There is plenty of time (& polls) for this to recover, but Vic & QLD hold a lot of Federal ALP divisons.
If the WA – GST thing ignites, this could also cause problems for PM Albanese.
There are a lot of WA ALP Federal divisions at play too.
There are not too many more divisions in NSW, SA or Tas that the Federal ALP could expect to gain, to offset losses in those other states.
Very messy situation atm, at the mid term cycle of the Federal Parliament.
nadia,
I gave my reasons in the replies , I do not know where the propaganda you claim is coming from
So the combined Coalition and One Nation has close to 50% of the total primary vote and well over 50% for voters aged 35 and over – those who have enough emotional maturity to actually have the rationality to decide who to vote.
And Pauline Hanson has just announced that she will abolish compulsory superannuation – what good is superannuation? All it does is cause extra expense to employers such that employees’ wages are locked away until old age. The way people spend their salary is a basic human right and freedom – we do not need nannies to tell us how much to save for eldercare. If someone wants to save a quarter of their income for their dotage, let them. If someone wants to use that money for a deposit for a home, also let them. It’s called choice, and freedom.
nadia I get that but I’m saying is that we shouldn’t make predictions year and a half to election through I think the problem we’ve tried to predict seats is you don’t know where the votes are like I even said one nation has a massive regional base so I could see a lot of votes in the areas where the Liberal Party needs to keep those seats as for the Labour Party yeah I do think the 94 seats that the Labour Party have is not going to be what they get at the 2028 election but they’ll still be in power
Scott says:
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 8:29 pm
nadia,
I gave my reasons in the replies , I do not know where the propaganda you claim is coming from
==============
The missing 24.16% figure Scott!
Timmy once again that 50% could be an areas where they already have popularity Timmy also the reason we have super is so the government doesn’t have to pay age pensions seriously like the government saves money also I’ll say the same thing you sound like the certain couple of other posters who the coalition was going to win
Fair enough QR @ 8.34pm.
We shall monitor the polling, especially the figures coming out of Victoria.
Evening all.
https://www.smh.com.au/culture/tv-and-radio/deborah-mailman-makes-history-as-first-indigenous-person-inducted-into-logies-hall-of-fame-20260812-p60nn8.html
Good on her. I once was mistaken for Mailman in a Sydney cafe 20+ years ago. Very embarrassing when people come up to you asking for your autograph when you have no idea who they think you are.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/16/us/trump-immigration-crackdown.html
Mr Jindra must’ve missed the MASS DEPORTATION NOW
nadia says:
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 8:35 pm
Scott says:
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 8:29 pm
nadia,
I gave my reasons in the replies , I do not know where the propaganda you claim is coming from
==============
The missing 24.16% figure Scott!
—————————————-
I responded to it here, not the figure but on the primary votes
Scott says:
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 7:16 pm
nadia says:
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 7:02 pm
QLD Federal voting data
* ALP 31
* ON 32
* LNP 22
* GRN 9 (this primary is shite for the Greens)
* Ind/Oth 6
ON + LNP = 54
ALP + GRN = 40
———————–
One nation getting LNP voters , which will not do one nation or LNP any good in Qld, to take much ground off Labor.
All this will do is swap LNP seat to either one nation or Labor, other non lib/nats
, Labor and the greens vote in QLD not much different to the 25 federal election
2025 Qld Federal election result
LNP 34.91%
Labor 30.98%
The greens 11.76%
One Nation 7.84%
————————
Mr Jindra must’ve missed the MASS DEPORTATION NOW signs at every Trump rally in the lead up to the election.
I’m sorry, but if you vote for this stuff, you can’t be surprised at the real world impacts it has on people. Including yourself.
Don’t read too much into the small sized State level sub polls in Resoley
Small sample size, big margin of errors…. massive swings….
I am not going to repeat what I have to say every Resolve poll.
“the reason we have super is so the government doesn’t have to pay age pensions seriously like the government saves money”
Whoever said governments have to pay age pensions?
No other developed country in the Western World funds their elders aged care to such an extent from the public purse.
People’s elder care should be their own (and their descendants’) responsibility.
Age pension-type bursaries should be a last resort for the truly indigent, childless and marginalised.
There should be a point, such as those born in 1975 or earlier, for which current age pension entitlements might be grandfathered. After that they should be phased out.
Timmy
ON wanting to scrap compulsory superannuation is poor policy that will leave taxpayers facing a bill for higher welfare spending, real conservatives support financial planning for the future because that is what conservatives do.
Nadia – Scott has recently suggested One Nation could win Kew in Victoria. His predictions aren’t always based on the numbers – or even reality.