DemosAU/Premier National have a poll of Victorian state voting intention that paints a picture fundamentally unchanged from before the Labor leadership change, with Labor up two points from June to 23%, the Coalition also up two to 32%, One Nation down one to 22% and the Greens down two to 13%. The Coalition holds an unchanged two-party lead over Labor of 55-45. Jess Wilson records a 43-34 lead over Ben Carroll on preferred premier, compared with Wilson’s 47-28 lead over Jacinta Allan. Wilson’s personal ratings are 35% positive (up three), 41% neutral (down five) and 24% negative (up two), while Carroll is on 21% positive, 42% neutral and 37% negative, compared with Allan’s 18%, 25% and 57%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of 1007.
As noted in the post below, a Victorian state poll from Resolve Strategic in the Nine Newspapers is likely over the coming days.
UPDATE: The Age reports the monthly Resolve Strategic poll has Labor down two to 25%, the Coalition steady on 27%, One Nation up one to 23% and the Greens steady on 12%. A three-way preferred premier question has Jess Wilson on 26%, Ben Carroll on 20% and One Nation state president, Pakenham and prospective leader Warren Pickering on 10%, with 44% undecided. The poll was conducted Sunday to Saturday from a sample of 1000.
Trent –
Agree – it’s frustrating Resolve didn’t release Coalition preferences, which would be the most interesting. The most recent Redbridge had the Coalition’s respondent preferences splitting 65-35 ONP-ALP. This seems about right unless we see evidence to the contrary. However, I think the split could vary a lot seat by seat, and a stronger flow to One Nation in the regions than in Melbourne would be anticipated.
Although Resolve hasn’t released regional breakdowns, the article in The Age indicates the Coalition is performing especially strongly in Melbourne’s east and south-east, which implies they’re not performing as well in the north and west (i.e. there would likely be more ALP-ONP contests here).
Interestingly, the primaries in the current Resolve are pretty close to the primaries in the two MRPs from before the leadership change, with Labor slightly stronger in the Redbridge MRP and slightly weaker in the YouGov MRP, so an outcome similar to these could be expected.
For comparison, the only recent polls (since Carroll) with regional breakdowns for the outer suburbs (most relevant for ALP-ONP metro contests) are:
– Redbridge – ALP 21%, L/NP 29%, ONP 27%, GRN 13%, OTH 10%.
– DemosAU – ALP 20%, GRN 12%, OTH 10%, ONP 23%, L/NP 35%.
No doubt the Coalition would prefer DemosAU’s breakdown of the outer suburbs, because Redbridge suggests relatively more ALP-ONP contests.
Hopefully Redbridge do another breakdown by Legislative Council region soon – or we get a new MRP.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/08/group-ticket-voting-in-victoria-is.html
Group Ticket Voting In Victoria Is Finally Gone!
(CW: contains a ScoMo joke)
Hard Being Green,
Why are there no independents in Victoria?
Funny you should ask that. Here’s a handy explainer on how rid a parliament of pesky minor parties and independents. Victoria gets a special mention about two and three quarter minutes in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3WTlyuhDs0
The machete bin fiasco really sums up 12 years of ALP in Victoria.
Cost of $300,000 per bin (incompetence or corruption)
Why does anyone in Melbourne need machetes, didn’t notice a lot of thick grass or undergrowth that needed clearing last time I was there (soft on crime)
Can you imagine someone seeing a machete bin and reassessing their life choices (It won’t work)
Repeat with changes to lettering for a plaque costing $ 75,000
If you vote ALP or Greens in Victoria in November you are either an idiot or a liar. There is no third option.
The bins didn’t cost $300,000 each… anyone who believed that was an idiot or a liar.
They actually cost a bit over two thousand each. So out by around 150x.
However, I think it’s pretty clear that you know that too. The fictional $300,000 came from dividing the total budget for the program combatting knife crime (of which the bins are only a tiny fraction) by a number of bins that wasn’t even correct in the first place either.
But, as there are no consequences for the Libs making up numbers for the media…
Similar story to the $15b figure being thrown around in the CFMEU scandal.
Just an overall figure for something much larger being attributed to one small part of the narrative which idiots believe (or liars deliberately mislead people with), but in that case even the $15b figure itself was only a questionable estimate.
@Expat agree, something that is overlooked is within the past year, these is full of far-right misinformation and news stories flooding the algorithm in portraying Victoria Government and the state as a whole as a dystopia which thens gets repeated by the Victorian Coalition and the Mainstream media under kinder language which we all know the agenda. This tactic was used to bring down the Queensland Labor Government and even overseas, it nearly brought down the Canadian Liberal Government (lucky that didn’t happen).
If the algorithm didn’t exist, Labor might not had been as unpopular.
It takes guts for Ben Carroll to announce a construction royal commission and thereby to make alleged union corruption and right wing talking points the number one issue in Victoria in the lead up to the state election.
I hadn’t imaged that Carroll might be satisfied at being one of Victoria’s shortest serving premiers, yet here we are.
Interesting is that the Terms of Reference for the Royal Commission are into :-
THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY
So, unlike Queensland, not the CFMEU, noting that that Union has an Administrator.
Remember Bottom of the Harbour?
So, who is now nervous?
Noting the Right-Wing media can not get enough about Andrews, who was just too good for them.
I am not too sure Andrews is the CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY or plays any part in the CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY.
He was an MP, a Minister, an Opposition Leader and then the Premier.
Meanwhile, noting we have a half sized Red Bin which is at most only ever half full at every fortnightly collection date, and with those bins going out tonight, I note that all the bins out so far are the smaller bins (which are cheaper thru Council Rates!!) so people opted out of the full sized red bins.
I know someone who promotes that spending on rail is wasted money because, in 10 years, to go anywhere you will dial up a driver less vehicle which will arrive at your door then transit you.
And attacks the government accordingly as wasting money.
Given train commuter services carry (say) 1,000 passengers on EACH train during peak hours, how does using driver less cars impact across the analysis?
Including further congested roads?
It may be that you commute that way to a train station, but…..
The proposed Royal Commissioner will be Former South Australian Chief Justice Christopher Kourakis.
Quick look through wiki…
* 2003 Appointed as S.A. Solicitor General (Labor was in power)
* 2008 Changed his QC title, to SC
* 2008 Appointed to the S.A. Supreme Court (Labor was in power)
* 2012 Appointed as S.A. Chief Justice (Labor was in power)
I’m guessing he’s got fairly strong Labor party affiliations.
Open Question – if the Libs get elected, will Wilson be able to remove him and/or replace him with a Liberal/Conservative appointee (I’m assuming the Libs have their own person in mind), or will J.Kourakis & his Commission remain in place?
Apologies for dragging U.S. Court style polarisation into a Victorian context, but the world – & politics – is getting mighty polarised atm.
Trent says:
Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 9:42 am
Running the new BludgerTrack figures into my seat projection spreadsheet using the LC-level variations, I get the following:
ALP 33 seats
LNP 39 seats
GRN 4 seats
ONP 6 seats
6 Tossups (2 ALP v GRN, 2 ALP v ON, 2 ALP v LIB)
===================
WB – thanks for updating BT Victoria.
Trent – many thanks for the seat tally update.
Which 2 ALP v GRN tossups are you getting – Melb & Pascoe Vale.
Related to the above discussion, the AFR reports the below, based on a JWS Research survey of the performance of state governments:
“The latest research surveyed 1230 voters between August 6 and August 10, about a week after Ben Carroll rolled Jacinta Allan as Victorian premier in a bid to head off a drubbing at the state election on November 28.”
“It finds just 18 per cent of Victorians rate the overall performance of the government as good while 50 per cent rate it as poor, leading to a net rating of minus 33 per cent. The average net rating of all five states is minus 4.”
“The SA government has a net performance rating of plus 27 per cent, followed by WA on plus 14 per cent, NSW on plus 4 per cent and Queensland on plus 2 per cent.”
“Of the 13 policy issues that contribute to the overall performance rating, Victorian voters are severely critical of their government’s handling of the cost of living, community safety and crime, economic management and social cohesion. It also rates poorly on industrial relations, emergency services, transport and infrastructure, and business and industry.”
Thanks AM, a consice take on why there are no independents in Victoria 🙁
6 News interview with George Hasanakos of DemosAU
First 5 minutes or so is about Victoria
https://youtu.be/Mz2eIr1dr7M
nadiasays:
Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 5:34 pm
The proposed Royal Commissioner will be Former South Australian Chief Justice Christopher Kourakis.
Quick look through wiki…
* 2003 Appointed as S.A. Solicitor General (Labor was in power)
* 2008 Changed his QC title, to SC
* 2008 Appointed to the S.A. Supreme Court (Labor was in power)
* 2012 Appointed as S.A. Chief Justice (Labor was in power)
I’m guessing he’s got fairly strong Labor party affiliations.
_______________________
A lackey.
We should have known.
I was hoping for Geoffrey Watson SC if they really wanted to get to the bottom of it.
@nadia, the 2 ALP v GRN tossups are Northcote and Footscray.
The model has the Greens very comfortably retaining their 3 seats and re-gaining Prahran.
Northcote actually comes out as a 51-49 Labor retain but it has the ON vote way higher than it probably will be (this is an issue in most inner seats) and in the absence of knowing how LIB & ON preferences will flow in these contests I consider that a “too close to call”.
Also if most of the “Other” vote is VS, that’ll flow much stronger to the Greens than the model suggests too so I’d predict a very likely Greens gain, but the model comes out at 51-49 Labor, so I put it as a tossup.
Comments from Nadia and Taylormade about Justice Kourakis are pretty offensive.
Why not wait until the Royal Commission is up and running before leaping to a judgement based on bugger all.
Not everything is about partisan politicking !!!
Kage,
This is what I posted @ 5.34pm:
“Open Question – if the Libs get elected, will Wilson be able to remove him and/or replace him with a Liberal/Conservative appointee (I’m assuming the Libs have their own person in mind), or will J.Kourakis & his Commission remain in place?
Apologies for dragging U.S. Court style polarisation into a Victorian context, but the world – & politics – is getting mighty polarised atm”……………..
….. and I think it’s a fair question in light of world and local affairs where politics & the judiciary are seemingly getting heavily politicised.
ie: regular 6-3 decisions in the US Supreme Court (looks politicised to me), &
in Australia, in January, Josh Frydenberg referred to the appointment of a Justice to head the Anti-Semitism RC as “unthinkable”. (This is also a polarising partisan comment).
Regardless, I’ve had a look at what an incoming Premier can do, and yes she could (if she wins) request the commission be cancelled, and put a new one in place. This, however, would be highly unlikely as the Judiciary and Senior Legal community could become fairly disgruntled as it might be seen as casting a shadow over a colleague. ie: it wouldn’t be the best start for a new Premier to get the legal community off side. (Remember Campbell Newman in QLD stirred up the QLD Judiciary, which turned into a big backfire for him).
If you’re offended by a poster referring to J Kourakis as a “lackey”, take it up with that poster pls.
It didn’t come from me.
Somewhat of a poll of 511 residents covering East Gippsland and coming via the Family First Party.
https://newshub.medianet.com.au/2026/08/bills-first-ideology-last-poll-torches-labors-energy-plan/167028/
I can’t find the source poll, but the commissioning company is something called Affordable Energy Australia – never heard of them. The content on their website appears to be hostile to Renewable Energy.
Reading the content above, it looks like a push poll, geared towards retaining Loy Yang A & Yallourn.
Is the Family First party still a thing in Victoria? I thought they’d pretty much vanished from politics.
nadia,
My totally non-lawyer understanding is that once a royal commission has commenced, the commissioner can’t be replaced. It would be possible, however, to close the commission down and start from scratch with someone else in charge.
It might be the same rationale as Prime Minister Turnbull calling a banking Royal Commission in 2018, as I recall at the urging of the Big Banks. The banks had decided that it was inevitable and wanted it done while their friends were still in power. The Government wanted to be able to set the terms and choose the Commissioner.
On other news, Victoria Coalition is planning to scrap VNI West project. I think it might bring some One Nation Voters back home but that ironically makes it easier for Labor and the Teals to portray them as massively watering down climate action.
In regards the religious orders, in Victoria at elections including the last Federal Election, these Orders have marshalled their resources to knock on doors and to hand out Liberal Party material at Polling Booths
Noting that some do not vote citing their religion
They are most aggressive in approaching who they approach – and are not resident in the seats they operate in, so blow ins
This is the ever present carry over from Bastiaan and Sukkar taking control of the Victorian Division because that influence is well entrenched
And to clarify, in regard red bins and the majority being small bins, we and those we know including family members in other electorates are all already on weekly collections (the Liberal party electioneering)
The exception is one of our sons, resident at the foot of the Dandenongs where Pentecostals basically live (in numbers and easily identified by his description!)
He is on fortnightly collections thru his Council (but still has a small bin)
So read into that what you may!!!
With the Swans, the issue is the commercial quantity of the illegal drugs found when the room was searched following the complaint of sexual assault
Events escalate from there, those implicated now represented by will regarded barristers recommended to them
This matter may well see jail time – and end of careers full stop
Plus every other aspect of the fall out which is absolutely huge – so damage everywhere including to the AFL and their upper echelons
And Steve777, absolutely correct
Led by the then Chair of Westpac (from the accountancy industry), the banks concluded that a Royal Commission could not be evaded, approached Turnbull and they wrote what were very, very inadequate Terms of Reference, so virtually an attack on Industry Superannuation Funds – which even at that level backfired spectacularly the banks exiting Funds management
Fubar
Good luck with DVA.
Back in the day when the ADF still used SLR’s, GPMG’s and even Owens, I copped what was known in the Army as Tonal Nerve Deafness due to totally unprotected hearing when on the range. The army and I parted company with me getting – in those days – ‘compensation’ of just over six quid and a pass back home after discharge.
For years I hammered DVA about the impact of the lack of prudence but it came to nothing.
Then I was advised – many years later – that if I suffered tinnitus DVA would accept responsibility.
The net result was support for ONE set of hearing aids on the understanding that this was a once and only offer – which I accepted.
Good luck with your back ……..
And just to clarify, my focus on the players and drugs does not in any way diminish the status of the compliant made by the women
They also have their rights consistent with every other member of society
And in regards the appointing of a legal identity from SA and appointments by a Labor administration, the facts are that across a generation post the rectify of a gerrymander, the ALP has been the government absent some one term LCP governments which have fractured on ideology grounds and failed
Think Steele Hall, Robin Millhouse and thru to the one term government of Marshall
And, I would put, consistent with what the Liberal Party is in all its State and Territory Divisions – so very quickly found to be unelectable at any time they are returned to government (to be quickly jettisoned in landslides)
IF they are elected in Victoria, history will be repeated
One term, fracture and defeat
A useful summary by Adrian Beaumont in The Conversation today, highlighting the weakening of the One Nation primary vote in recent polls:
“It’s about three months until the Victorian state election on November 28. Five polls have been released since Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as Labor leader and premier on July 28. These polls have the Coalition leading Labor after preferences by between 51–49 (Morgan SMS) and 57–43 (Redbridge).”
“In four of the five polls, One Nation has dropped from the previous edition of those polls, although they were up one point in Resolve. One Nation’s drop to the low 20s makes it easier for the Coalition to win a majority of the 88 lower house seats.”
“The Coalition and Labor are the leaders on primary votes, so the election is looking more like a standard two-party contest.”
Did some guesstimation for Pakenham
Primary Vote
ON 29.2
LIB 27.1
ALP 24.4
GRN 9.0
LCV 5.0
Mostly vibes and unif0rm-swing based, with a 3% bonus to Pickering for being state lead candidate.
After distributing the left preferences I get
ALP 35.69
LIB 30.01
ON 29.20
The remaining 5.1% with minors cancels itself out in left-right terms
On which LIB would win easily. But Pickering would only need a further 0.405% to win the seat. (About 155 votes)
Also, the implied swing in Pakenham comes out to 6.39% (ALP towards LIB)
CN
Fatal flaw in your analysid. You assumed increase in ON vote from primary to 3cp. There will always be some preferences go from Greens or VS to ON. It might only be 1 – 2% – possibly slightly more if there is a donkey vote involved – but possibly enough to get ON up to second place.
The big question might be .. in a scenario like yours where the ALP cannot win would Green, VS, even Labor voters tactically vote so that the LNP win against ON. A hold your nose moment so that ON don’t win. Conversely some VS voters might take the ‘liberation war’ strategy of having ON win so they have a bigger target to fight.
With every single set of statewide primary votes I’ve used in my seat projection model using the LC level swing variances, the SE Metro swings have Pakenham very firmly as an ALP v ONP contest (and very easy ONP gain).
It’s one of the few seats where no set of statewide primary votes – even the strongest ones for LIB and weakest for ONP – had LIB beating ONP into the 2CP.
@Trent I didn’t use the LC data. Your analysis is probably correct.
Blackburnpseph says:
Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 11:59 am
CN
Fatal flaw in your analysid. You assumed increase in ON vote from primary to 3cp. There will always be some preferences go from Greens or VS to ON. It might only be 1 – 2% – possibly slightly more if there is a donkey vote involved – but possibly enough to get ON up to second place.
The big question might be .. in a scenario like yours where the ALP cannot win would Green, VS, even Labor voters tactically vote so that the LNP win against ON. A hold your nose moment so that ON don’t win…..
===============
Yes absolutely they would. I couldn’t see any scenario in the Lower House where VS or other left aligned parties would put ON ahead of the Libs.
Interesting though how it plays in the Upper House. I suspect alot of VS/Left aligned voters would let their ballot exhaust after ticking 5 boxes.
CN says:
Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 11:12 am
Did some guesstimation for Pakenham
Primary Vote
ON 29.2
LIB 27.1
ALP 24.4
GRN 9.0
LCV 5.0
Mostly vibes and unif0rm-swing based, with a 3% bonus to Pickering for being state lead candidate.
After distributing the left preferences I get
ALP 35.69
LIB 30.01
ON 29.20
The remaining 5.1% with minors cancels itself out in left-right terms
On which LIB would win easily. But Pickering would only need a further 0.405% to win the seat. (About 155 votes)……
==========
Thanks CN – interesting analysis.
I don’t think Pakenham will be a ON pickup (not that you’ve said it will be).
There is a very high diversity of new migrants whom I could see possibly voting Liberal, but not moving their vote to ON.
The partially corresponding Federal Division of La Trobe got a swing to Labor, but I accept comparing Fed & State Divisions is risky business.
I’ll put Pakenham as a Lib pickup (which you’ve suggested upthread), but I think the Libs will top the primary there, Labor 2nd and ON 3rd (which you’ve got at 3PP stage after distribution of minors).
Pakenham adjoins Berwick and I understand Brad Battin is a fairly popular local member who I assume has a profile in the Pakenham area as well. This should be enough to get his Lib colleague over the line.
Narracan (adjoining Pakenham to the east), could very well flip from Lib to ON though.
@nadia, I think Blackburnpseph was asking whether Labor, Greens or VS voters might tactically vote Liberal (in primary vote terms) or put the Libs above Labor, to deliberately knock the ALP out of a 2CP so that it’s LIB v ONP, because the Libs might have a better chance of beating ONP than the ALP do.
I don’t think they were asking about preferences, because of course I think the vast majority of Labor, Greens & VS voters would preference the Libs higher than ONP.
But I can’t see them ‘tactically’ trying to hand a win to the Liberals through a Right v Right (LIB v ONP) 2CP just because there’s a chance ONP might win a 2CP vs Labor.
Fair enough Trent.
I may have misread BBPseph = I was more wokring on the basis that a VS aligned voter would vote VS 1, GRN 2 and then it’s decision time. I might check back with the poster down the track to clarify.
Just on VS – do you think they have a chance in either Northern or Western Met or depending on the strength of their vote, their vote would be more likely to elect a 2nd Green.
I’m working on the basis that the Green vote is holding up in inner Melbourne, and VS would be more likely to preference the Greens ahead of Labor.
In contrast to the Redbridge MRP, the YouGov MRP had the Coalition winning Pakenham (comfortably on Labor preferences against One Nation).
Unless One Nation start going back up in the polls, I don’t think this sort of tactical voting would be common. However, if One Nation start to have a competitive primary vote again and Labor’s primary remains relatively weak, it could be appealing for voters who would usually vote left of centre to tactically give the Coalition their first preference.
That said, you wouldn’t even know One Nation’s primary had considerably softened in recent Victorian polling if you read Rohan Smith’s article for news.com.au, which inflates One Nation’s current vote by misleadingly claiming “academics and pollsters who have Labor, the Coalition and One Nation all hovering around 25 per cent of primary voting intention” and “The latest polling has the three-horse race for primary votes evenly split”.
There may be a few Greens who consider voting tactically (or at least, preferencing tactically) to deliver seats to the Coalition ahead of ON, but not Labor voters. They may not like ON, and think Hanson and Joyce are fruitloops, but a lifetime of being born and raised to hate the Liberals and Nationals is too much to overcome.
No Favour says:
Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 2:56 pm
In contrast to the Redbridge MRP, the YouGov MRP had the Coalition winning Pakenham (comfortably on Labor preferences against One Nation)…….
=============
Hopefully not too far off getting a fresh Redbridge-Accent poll.
I’m guessing One Nation will keep tracking down in Victoria, the LNP around 30-ish, Labor mid 20’s and the Greens seem to be doing OK. The last Fed Yougov had the Greens tick up to 15% in Vic.
The Age is giving the “comments” of Malcolm Roberts a regular run every week. Bit awkward sounding. I don’t think his commentary will really help the ON vote much in Victoria.
Thinking out loud because I can’t comment in The Age,i really do wish that state political reporter Chip Le grand would stfu for more than 8 hours.The guy reads like he has a permanent axe to grind with Vic state Labor Govt,and pushing more and more to finally gets his coveted gold mic at News24.
Nadia –
Hopefully Redbridge release another poll before the next Resolve is out. I’d be very interested to see another MRP or at least a Legislative Council region breakdown from them.
Those primaries would be about in line with the current trend, though I’d not be brave enough to guess what the next Redbridge will give us.
And I agree that Malcolm Roberts probably won’t help One Nation much in Victoria.
Hopefully a Vic Redbridge-Accent poll looms shortly, in early September.
The Vic Resolve Poll should drop on/around Monday 14-Sept