The Herald Sun has a Freshwater Strategy poll of state voting intention in Victoria that has Labor sinking four points from the last such poll in March to 23%, the Coalition down three to 27%, and One Nation up five to 25%. The report does not provide a result for the Greens, but the Coalition is credited with a 53-47 two-party preferred.
Jess Wilson’s lead over Jacinta Allan as preferred premier has blown out from 47-31 to 49-25, an unusually wide lead for an Opposition Leader over an incumbent. Allan’s net approval rating is down from minus 32 to minus 37, while Wilson’s is down from plus 18 to plus 15. Sixty-two per cent favoured dumping Allan before the November election, including 39% among Labor voters. The poll was conducted between Friday and today from a sample of 1034 – there are a few missing threads, so hopefully we will be hearing more from the print edition or directly from the pollster. I believe we will also see a Resolve Strategic bi-monthly state poll result from Nine Newspapers next week.
Other Victorian electoral news:
• A bill to re-establish a campaign finance regime was passed last week, after the relevant parts of the Electoral Act were struck down wholesale by the High Court in April. The bill restores various aspects of the old system, though not the one that prompted the court ruling, namely the exemption of the major parties’ investment funds from a $4950 cap on political donations over a four-year electoral cycle. It increases the cap to $7500, and also increases annual “administrative expenditure” funding (as distinct from the public election funding based on how many votes a party or candidate receives) from a maximum $1.775 million to $2.765 million. The donation cap is doubled for new candidates and parties and set at a transitional $10,000 for the current cycle. The Greens argued the donation cap down from $10,000 in agreeing to a deal with Labor that froze out the Coalition, who wanted it much higher. The Liberals are particularly aggrieved because the High Court ruling has cut them off from a major source of their funding.
• Merri-bek councillor Katerine Theodosis is Labor’s candidate to succeed the retiring Danny Pearson in Essendon. The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reported in late April that Theodosis was assured of the backing of the national executive after winning the support of the Right faction Australian Workers Union, and that the resulting fait accompli was inflaming resentment among local members already aggrieved by the circumstances in which Jo Briskey succeeded Bill Shorten in the federal seat of Maribyrnong. Pearson appeared to associate himself with Daniel White, a former staffer to Bill Shorten and rival aspirant for the AWU’s support.
• Labor’s new candidate for South Barwon is Rebecca Thistleton, a former Australian Financial Review journalist and state government media adviser who ran unsuccessfully in Melbourne in 2022. The seat’s incumbent is Darren Cheeseman, who was required to resign from the Labor party room in April 2024. Elsewhere, the difficult task of defending a 0.4% margin in Pakenham upon the retirement of Emma Vulin falls to Alessandra Soliven, a 23-year-old Philippines-born former electorate officer and Australian Services Union organiser; and a 0.3% margin in neighbouring Bass will be defended by Chris Buckingham, a gender equity training facilitator with Gippsland Women’s Health, following the retirement of Jordan Crugnale.
• Labor’s candidate for Brunswick is Gabriel Steger, an adviser to federal Cooper MP Ged Kearney, whom the Brunswick Voice reports was preselected unopposed. The seat will be vacated with the retirement of two-term Greens member Tim Read, and as with other Greens-held seats, it will be easier for Labor to win if the Liberals revert to putting the Greens last on their how-to-vote cards, a practice they departed from in 2022.
• The Liberal candidate for Ashwood is former Monash councillor Theo Zographos, who was cast aside in favour of the late Katie Allen as the party’s candidate for the federal seat of Chisholm after Allan’s former seat of Higgins was abolished. Other Liberal candidates for Labor-held seats include Paul Byrnes, a public service legal officer and former staffer to Matthew Bach and Mary Wooldridge, in Eltham; Clare Fitzmaurice, policy adviser to federal MP Anne Webster, in Monbulk; Bass Coast mayor Rochelle Halstead in Bass; David Kitchen, finance manager for a food processing company, in Bayswater; Steve Martin, an engineering manager who ran for the federal seat of Indi in 2019, in Benambra; and Max Williams, owner of a boutique communications consultancy, in Rowville.
• There have been recent retirement announcements from Tim Bull of the Nationals after 16 years as member for Gippsland East, and Gary Maas of Labor after eight years in Narre Warren South.
• The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reports Merri-bek councillor and former mayor Oscar Yildiz, who polled 23.5% as an independent in Pascoe Vale in 2018, is “preparing to launch an independent bid for Essendon”.
• One Nation is yet to announce any candidates, but has declared itself intent on contesting every seat.
Victoria says:
Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 8:29 pm
I’m thinking Ben Carroll will take over from Jacinta Allan
————–
Ben Carroll will only put his hand up if he thinks the election is winnable. He won’t want to burn his leadership on a certain loss.
If he puts his hand up, it’s on! For realsies.
I am not convinced this election is over. I can’t yet see how the LNP or One Nation win it. Labor may well win by default. (a la Queensland 1988).
Further this idea that the government is any more unpopular than the nebulous concept of “the government” is a deliberate media construct.
I’m not convinced that ON’s vote will eventuate once an actual campaign begins. They have never been the front runner so they have escaped scrutiny. An angry protest vote is one thing, but actually giving the angry mob pitch forks is another thing altogether.
There just aren’t 88 sane ON members in all of Christendom, let alone Victoria! There aren’t 88 sane members of the LNP in Victoria. These people while a notion are electable. The slightest scrutiny will see them melt like a Wicked Witch in water.
Mabwm
Jacinta Allan will very likely lose her own seat.
That is why I believe there will be a change of leader, and Ben Carroll is next in line.
Ageeed there isn’t 88 sane ON reps. Lol
I also think internal polling for Bendigo East will determine whether we see a change of leader. My guess is they have it, and it’s bad.
But is it bad enough for Jacinta Allan to prefer to retire, or competitive enough that she’s tempted to recontest, that’s the question. A retirement announcement without a prior leadership spill is the best case scenario for Labor.
I actually wonder if that was rumoured to be happening soon, and this Freshwater poll commissioned by the HS was their attempt to get in first and control the narrative, so that if Jacinta does announce a retirement, it looks like it’s because of the “shock poll” they published…
One thing to note is that One Nation probably won’t get many preferences in most seats from anywhere other than the Liberals/Nationals, which means that if the Liberals/Nationals are in the final two in any seat then One Nation will probably need in excess of 40% primary to win. (In SA they won two seats narrowly in 2CP counts against Liberals with primaries in the upper 30s, but both those seats had disendorsed incumbents originally elected as Liberals polling in double figures as independents).
I would expect Labor to miss the top two in most rural seats, so One Nation’s better chances in regional areas are probably in regional cities where the Labor vote is still strong enough for them to make the 2CP and the Liberals to miss, even if the One Nation primary isn’t as high there.
And, FWIW, my Labor branch just passed a motion unanimously calling for the abolition of group ticket voting before the next election. (The vibes I get are that the government wants to do this, but wants to be sure they have the numbers in the upper house before committing, and will probably do it as late as possible so as to minimise the damage from incumbent micro-party MLCs who stand to lose their seats as a result).
Good news about GVTs, finally.
Jacinta Allan went door knocking recently and she would have been able to gauge the lay of the land.
Forget about turning a blind eye to corruption that cost us billions.
It’s all because she is a chick.
Trentsays:
Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 10:13 pm
Good news about GVTs, finally.
_______________________
They are putting a working group together and are looking to make a change in late 2027.
Labor’s Victorian polling has little to do with Jacinta’s gender, a few people here chose to ignore the 2% swing against Labor at last election, instead argued Labor would surf to victory in 26 on the back of completed projects and Liberal Parry dysfunction. There would be some sexism, but Allan is losing to the exact demographic the Liberal Party has been losing, a professional woman, this is a bigger lesson for the Liberal Party than for Labor. Politics is about timing and the tide always goes out; Labor still has the advantage of a healthy majority and incumbency, if I had to make a prediction right now, I would think Labor sneaks back in with the Greens holding the balance of power before losing badly in 2030.
The Victorian Lib/nats are not going to retain all of the seats they hold and gain seats on top of those , with a low combined primary vote under 30%.
One Nation if there is a swing to them are likely going to get maybe 5-12 seats , lib/nats hold .
Labor and lib/nats held seats switching with other and losing seats to other parties/independents
im stuggling to see how the lib/nats and one nation total of seats will be higher then 35 , with liberal party primary vote on par with Labor primary vote
Great to see Trent adding his thoughts here
Question for you – how many seats do you think the Greens can win?
I think the Greens will win about 6 seats:
– Melbourne
– Richmond
– Brunswick
– Prahran
– Northcote
– Footscray
Even if the Libs swap their preference advice to put the Greens last, I can’t see Labor snatching any of Greens seats the way they’re going at the moment, and Northcote is definitely flipping this time I think. Footscray will probably flip Green on VS preferences.
Depending on how the Labor vote holds up (or doesn’t) in the inner city, Albert Park could also be a long shot.
Preston or Pascoe Vale, even with a slumping Labor vote, would probably still need Lib preferences to get over the line and ON will probably do a little better in those 2 seats than the more inner ones too.
@Trent
r.e. Albert Park
If the Labor vote collapses or even significantly decreases as expected, and the Greens and conservatives strengthen, it could well become a typical south-of-the-Yarra situation where the Greens win on Labor preferences.
I do wonder if Nina Taylor gets a strong sophomore surge though, as she is a first term incumbent and quite a strong performer for the government.
Overall I think that it is becoming one of the Greens’ best chances of a pick-up.
Trent, I hope your green prediction is right.
I too think Labor will hang on, mainly because there is no realistic opposition.
I would say however that this is a good election to lose.
Whichever side wins will most likely be flushed to oblivion at the next election.
———
Never did I say the negativity to Allen is purely because she is a chick. Google Kimberley Crenshaw. The issue is the nature of the attacks on her combined with inherent sexism and misogyny. We have come a long way. Now we are facing the backlash.
Ben Carroll is not going to be the candidate to take over from Allan. Gaberielle Williams is the person who will take over if there is a move. Carroll is a member of the Right and therefore won’t have the numbers.
@Darcy, yeah I can envision a scenario where the following both occur in Albert Park:
– Significant swing to the Libs in some of the suburbs that had been LIB leaning up until the mid-2010s (Port Melbourne, Albert Park);
– Significant swing to the Greens in Albert Park’s share of St Kilda, where the state Greens have consistently underperformed compared to the side of St Kilda that’s in Prahran, as well as overlapping federal results.
Labor get squeezed on both sides and could miss the 2CP. I could see Labor & Greens both finishing in the mid 20s, Liberals in mid to high 30s, and whoever makes the 2CP out of Greens & Labor wins by <5%.
ON could do ok in Port Melbourne which is culturally a little different to the rest of inner Melbourne, so the remaining "other" vote will skew more right than in other years which is why the LIB 2CP could get over 45% from a primary in the mid 30s.
If Labor is waiting until the last minute to abolish GTV, when would that be, exactly? It would take months for the VEC to change and test their counting procedures and software, so surely the last minute can’t be too far away.
Taylormade says:
Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 10:25 pm
Forget about turning a blind eye to corruption that cost us billions.
It’s all because she is a chick.
Labor got the CFMEU de-registered, the Liberal couldn’t even get the flags off the cranes.
The ALP might not be the official opposition after the next election. I suggest this is where the federal ALP is heading.
frednksays:
Wednesday, June 10, 2026 at 11:24 am
Labor got the CFMEU de-registered, the Liberal couldn’t even get the flags off the cranes.
_______________________
What do we want ?
A Royal Commission
When do we want it ?
Now!
There won’t be another right wing Union RC for the same reason there won’t be another right wing banking RC. Because they’d have to actually show evidence of misconduct, and there won’t be, and what it will expose is corruption, bribes & fraud within the big business management side of the industry.
I think the question of a legitimate/ viable government is a desperate grasp at straws.
Oppositions don’t win elections, governments get voted out.
2022 results Primary Votes
Bellarine – Lab 42%
Bendigo East – Lab 48.3%
Bendigo West – Lab 46.5%
Eureka – Lab 41%
Geelong – Lab 46.4%
Lara – Lab 49.7%
Macedon – Lab 41.1%
South Barwon – Lab 44.2%
Wendouree – Lab 47.6%
Ripon – Lab 38.55%
Outer Metro
Bass Lab 32.6%
Frankston Lab 41.6%
Greenvale Lab 41.5%
Werribee
Yan Yean
Pakenham
Sunbury
Melton
Hastings
Labor holds 26 Metro seats
Ashwood
Bayswater
Bentleigh
Glen Waverley
Ringwood?
Niddrie?
The by-elections seem to indicate that the Labor vote is collapsing.
If the Labor primary vote is at 25% – those regional seats and much of the fringes are gone.
I’d put money on Gabrielle returning her seat – but that’s about it.
my prediction between Labor and liberal party close to equal on primary votes on 23%
Labor has advantage with stronger 2pp
Labor party net lost of 7-9 seats
Liberal party net lost of 8-12 seats
Jess Wilson to possibly lose her seat
@Scott regarding if Jess Wilson could lose her seat, I think it is rather more of a wildcard meaning it really depends how Jess Wilson moves her campaign. She might capitalize on trying to win potential One Nation Voters (through switch or preferences) and move her campaign to the Right in opposing policies such as multiculturalism and Climate Policies but that could allow Teals to flourish if that happens. Jess Wilson currently has a strategy to avoid discussing about multiculturalism and even avoided using the term ever since the rise of One Nation in the polls so that she avoid any scrutiny.
Marh
That’s the problem Jess Wilson is going to have if there is a swing to one nation , she will not be able to stop the liberal party voters switching to one nation , since the lib/nat and one nation , if they do not have many policies, the ones they have are not that far apart each other .
Teals could also flourish if the threat of an LNP-ONP minority becomes more real as voters actually start tuning in during the campaign.
I’d bet there are plenty of moderate/centrist Liberal voters in seats like Kew & Hawthorn, that as much as they like Wilson & Pesutto, would be repelled by the idea of them having to work in a minority government with a bunch of nutty One Nation MPs.
The idea of voting for a Teal IND who could work more productively with either side, and potentially hold the balance of power to either keep an ALP/GRN minority or an LNP/ON minority more anchored to the sensible centre, would surely be attractive to the type of voter who doesn’t like the idea of either a left-wing ALP/GRN government or a populist right-wing LNP/ON government, but would otherwise have given the Liberals a shot if they didn’t come with the risk of ON being part of the government.
I don’t exactly think a huge swing is needed in either Hawthorn or Kew either, as long as the IND knocks Labor out the 2CP (which they surely will this time).
FWIW – Sophie Torney reckons she has polling numbers that suggest she can beat Jess Wilson.
Who knows if that’s legit, or she’s just rallying the troops, but the Teal t-shirts are definitely mobilising in Kew.
I think Kew will be extremely close (<2% margin) regardless of who wins it. Same with Hawthorn.
Doubt Kew and Hawthorn will be close. Thorney has a profile, the Hawthorn Teal candidate is a virtual unknown local councilor.
Based purely on the current situation with that Freshwater poll, if an election was held this coming weekend, the final seat count could be something like:
ALP – 37 (-19)
ONP – 20 (+20)
LIB – 16 (-3)
NAT – 6 (-3)
GRN – 6 (+2)
IND – 3 (+3)
* All +/- is compared to 2022, not post byelections and party defections.
What a mess that would be. Neither ALP/GRN nor LIB/NAT/ONP combining for 45 between them, with only 43 between ALP/GRN and 42 between LIB/NAT/ON, and the 3 INDs being the decider, who also may not all pick the same side to support.
If the collective “right” were to form government in that scenario too, who would be the Premier if ON had more seats than the Liberals, but the Libs/Nats combined for more than ON? Especially if Jess Wilson lost her seat, the Libs wouldn’t even have the argument that their leader is the one Victorians voted for as the alternate premier, because they’d have to select a new one.
It’d be brand new territory.
Of course, that’s not my prediction for how things will actually go in November. There’s a lot of time between now and then and a lot could happen. Two main factors will be whether Labor change leader (as well as how they do it, and who they choose, if they do); and what ON’s position looks like closer to campaign time when people actually start tuning in.
Lets all face it, the Allan Government is on the nose and is on the way out.
A few points to consider:
– With the exception of Morwell, the Nats are pretty safe in all their seats, even if they lost 20 – 25% of their primary vote to ON, they would still get home on Labor and Greens preferences because the latter are so weak in regional Victoria. My only caveat to the above is that Murray Plains and Gippsland East might be problematic as the MPs are retiring and their personal vote will be lost.
– I agree with Trent on his possible Greens pick ups. Albert Park and Preston are a chance if Labor collapses.
– There are seats like Lara where ON could be in with a chance whereas the- Libs have no chance. Not sure how many more of these there might be – Wendouree perhaps?
– There are seats where ON might outpace the Libs in the race against Labor – Eureka, Sunbury, Frankston, Carrum. Both Nepean and Farrer were instructive in that it was quite clear that a lot of voters seemed to go straight from Labor to One Nation.
– We don’t have much idea where One Nation will do well – we really need polling even at a level of Legislative Council regions.
– We also don’t know where the ON preferences will go. Assuming that HTV cards might put Libs above Labor there is no gaurantee that they will.
– The Teal preferences went almost 75% to Labor last time in Kew and Hawthorn. Are the Libs really going to lose more votes to the Teals. Seeing the mood, the Libs being in trouble sounds like wishful thinking above. Both Jess Wilson and John Pessutto are good candidates and from what I hear highly regarded locally.
Considering in the only 3 real life examples of One Nation performing at this historic high there’s usually a 8-9% swing TOWARDS them during the campaign period compared to polls released 5-6 months out from an election, I would be concerned about the possibility of a One Nation minority government in Victoria (looking at this poll in particular).
If the vote really is this fractured come election time, it will be interesting* to see how the provisions for an early election under Victoria’s fixed term legislation work in practice.
In the olden days, a government frustrated by a chamber not under its control could just call an election virtually any time. But not now. Without a lost vote of confidence, such a government would be forced to soldier on no matter what. And the crossbench (whoever that might consist of) might not want an election where they could lose their seats, so would vote for confidence just to hang on.
For four long years.
* As in ‘May you live in interesting times’.
There have been comments to the effect that Labor insiders say that the 2022 campaign was dreadful and it was only the dire state of the Liberals that allowed Labor to win 56 of 88 seats. How many seats would they have won with a “good” campaign – 80 plus ???
Other comments to the effect that Jacinta Allan is “embattled.
Some people on this site do talk nonsense.
Jacinta Allan is not under threat of being replaced. The Labor Party is not in despair, nor is it likely the Libs and their allies in the National Party and One Nation could gain enough seats to provide a credible opposition.
The One Nation Party is already falling apart as the lack of policies is exposed by the light scrutiny being applied by a sympathetic press at the moment.
For the press to retain any credibility journos will have to step up and start asking probing questions. We have already seen the stumbles from the Beetroot and Bell and the Hanson assertion that the PBO will not cost her “policies”. MMM.
Taylormade says:
Wednesday, June 10, 2026 at 1:06 pm
frednksays:
Wednesday, June 10, 2026 at 11:24 am
Labor got the CFMEU de-registered, the Liberal couldn’t even get the flags off the cranes.
_______________________
What do we want ?
A Royal Commission
When do we want it ?
Now!
Should the CFMEU have been deregistered? Is that the question you want to ask? Want to line up with the Greens, they opposed it at the time.
Thanks Trent, 6 for the Greens would be a good result
Hopefully Labor hold enough so that it would be the balance of power
I would be interested to see what debates end up looking like this election. ONP wasn’t included in the SA debate, but by now it’s clear that they have become a major party, and so they should at least be invited along, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see them shirk the scrutiny.
I would be very keen to see a 4 party debate with the Greens, Labor, the Liberals, and One Nation. Very European.
Not sure why Greens would be invited to any debate, given there’s no prospect of them providing the next Premier.
BT SAYS says:
Wednesday, June 10, 2026 at 9:44 pm
Not sure why Greens would be invited to any debate, given there’s no prospect of them providing the next Premier.
————————————
By that logic, no need to invite the Libs either.
The Australian 11/06
Big Build wiped from Allan’s communications.
As the Victorian Premier fights for her political survival, Labors once-vaunted agenda has all but disappeared from its public messaging.
_______________________
It won’t work with me.
I think about the waste, corruption and mismanagement every single day.
It’s locked in.
There was a bit of discussion up-thread of Kew. Sophie Torney got within 200 votes of making the 2CP in 2022 and would have gone very close to being elected on Labor and other preferences had she done so, so a swing away from Labor could endanger Jess Wilson even if her own primary vote holds up. (Torney has also stayed active in the last four years, including a term as mayor of Boroondara). That said, I’d expect that Wilson will get a bit of a leadership bounce (as Ashton Hurn did in SA in an otherwise difficult election), plus the Liberal vote last time wouldn’t have been helped by Tim Smith’s misadventures.
Full report has dropped on the Freshwater site, & confirms the Green primary at 14% (row 199 on the spreadsheet).
Row 7 – Is Victoria heading in the right direction, yes/no
Men slightly higher at 28% yes, compared to women at 19% yes.
Row 75 & 76 – Gov’t doing a good job yes/no
Both sexes have it at 62% NO, with men having a slightly more favourable view of the gov’t at 24%, compared to 20% for women.
Look’s like women have an overall negative attitude to this gov’t.
Link : https://freshwaterstrategy.com/2026/06/11/herald-sun-freshwater-strategy-june-polling-data/
Fascinating conversation. So many interesting perspectives, but I am not sure how many contributors have been speaking to people outside inner Melbourne.
I’ve just been looking at the numbers. I can’t see how the ALP, even with green and teal preferences, get back in. People are waiting with baseball bats, rolling pins and every other device they can lay their hands on to wack Jacinta Allen and her colleagues.
The real unknown is the preference flow on the right side of politics. Will the preferences be tight, like on the left, or looser. It will be interesting to see how many old ALP voters voting for ON preference their old party ahead to the Libs/ Nats. I struggle to see a 2PP between left and right less than 48/52 to the right. Could be 49/51, but more likely 46/ 54. Saying that with so many three or four cornered races there will be some real anomalies.
If I was Ben Carroll, I would not put my hand up. I’d wait for after the election. Let Jacinta fall on her sword and take the blame. Then he could come in as a clean skin. This will be a very good election to lose as there will be no money for anything for the next four years and Albo won’t come to the rescue with infrastructure spending if the government changes. Strategically Ben would be better to try to get up at the following election. It has happened before.
Fred
Albert Park, Northcote and Footscray are Labor’s only seats within 10k of Melbourne and they are possible Green gain.
The Victorian Coalition must be pretty pleased with the results of this poll, especially given how strongly One Nation preferences flowed back to the Liberals in the recent Nepean by-election.
Angus Taylor must be jealous of Jess Wilson.
6% of respondants have never heard of the Victorian National Party.. lol
The startling figures from the breakdowns from freshwater are:
Unfavourable:
Wilson – 18% (22% had never heard – so quickmaths adjust this to around 23%)
Taylor – 22% (20% had never heard – adjusted to 27.5%)
One Nation – 36% (42% favourable)
Liberals – 37% (40% favourable)
Greens – 41% (28% favourable)
Labor – 51% (32% favourable)
Albanese – 54% (30% favourable)
Allan – 58% (20% favourable)
There is an excellent article from Richard Willingham today on the ABC.
The real question is will Labor do a preference deal with One Nation?
You would think that if the Liberals get in the top 2, Labor preferences would go to Liberals.
The problem will be in the seats where the top 2 are One Nation and Labor.
As Richard points out (and I already did previously), the western and northern suburbs are in danger of Agent Orange. I think on current polling the only seats that Labor are sure of winning would be ones similar to Dandenong. The city ones may fall green or blue, The east will go blue and the west and north orange.
Look’s like we’ve got another new poll in the Heraldsun, headlined…
“Jacinta Allan delivered another devastating blow in fresh poll”
New thread.
if the current Victorian Labor Government does not sort out the education dispute on funding and teachers’/support staff conditions, they will lose the elections.