InDaily has the first South Australian state poll since the March election, courtesy of DemosAU. It has Labor at 35%, down from 37.5% at the election; One Nation at 26%, up from 22.9%; the Liberals at 18.0%, down from 18.9%; and the Greens at 13%, up from 10.4%. A two-party preferred measures has Labor leading One Nation 56-44, compared with what the pollster estimates at 58.1-41.9 at the election.
A two-way preferred premier question has Peter Malinauskas leading Ashton Hurn 51-20, compared with 56-21 at the pollster’s pre-election poll. Malinauskas’s ratings are 43% positive (down six on the pre-election poll), 36% neutral (up five) and 21% negative (up one); Hurn’s are 21% positive (steady), 55% neutral (down three) and 24% negative (up three); One Nation leader Cory Bernardi’s are 20% positive (steady), 39% neutral (down five) and 41% negative (up five).
The poll was conducted May 29 to June 15 from a sample of 931. A full report with demographic breakdowns on voting intention should be on the pollster’s website shortly.
“Orange surge spoils Mali’s post-election ‘honeymoon’
Labor down 2.5 percentage points since the election to 35 per cent….
Meanwhile, the SA Greens were enjoying a boost in primary share by 2.6 per cent to 13 per cent.”
Ace Strategies director Matt Neagle said “Their support base spans voters from the left through to the far right, which tells us this is a protest movement, not a cohesive ideological block,” he said.
Which is why the polling data shows that Labor has lost ground to the Greens on primary vote; while the libs and independent vote has moved to One Nation.
This is a complete contradiction to what he says.
Even on these figures, Labor wouldn’t lose a seat if an election was held right now, but the media are fixed on anything orange being a “big” thing.
Yes Mali has lose ground due to some calls he has made since the election, re tree on a golf course, but honeymoon on a second term landslide, please Indaily do better.
On these numbers 3 seats would most likely change hands:
Heysen: GRN gain
Morphett: LIB gain
Light: PHON gain
Thanks Thomas; Sorry I stand corrected, three seats to all parties.
Hardly an Orange wave as per the article.
This seems to reflect the continuous trend towards One Nation that we’re seeing interstate and federally more than anything else. Alarming but more for this country as a whole than just SA in particular.
Morphett would not be a Lib gain, with the loss of the personal vote of the previous MP. And the swing against the Libs further to One Nation would doom their chances taking that seat back.
The only 2 seats they would retain today is Bragg and Schubert.
SA council elections delayed until April 2027 after legislation passes parliament
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-25/sa-council-elections-delayed-amid-review-into-march-poll/106840074
The state government has passed legislation to delay South Australia’s council elections until April 2027, after the Electoral Commission raised “very serious concerns” about its ability to administer the poll in November.
The change will also see subsequent local government elections held in November 2031, 2035, and 2039 — separate to state election years — in a move the local government sector hopes will boost turnout for council elections.
Agree – InDaily has misrepresented this poll. This is more “status quo” than a One Nation “surge”. Very few seats would change with a small swing to One Nation.
There is no evidence on these numbers that the honeymoon for Peter Malinauskas and SA Labor is over.
Malinauskas is being hurt by the trees debacle which will only get worse when he starts cutting down trees for the bike race. Following his flatfooted response to the algae bloom and his attempt at fracking the South East, it’s no wonder the Greens are up.
But it’s interesting that the TPP is now Lab/ON despite the Liberals being the official opposition.
Full S.A. poll is here –
https://demosau.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/DemosAU-South-Australian-Poll-June-26.pdf
For some reason it’s tucked away in the “methodology statements” link on their website.
Got a lot of Federal polls due too over the next 5 days.
Daniel: the Libs would hold Chaffey and Flinders on those numbers – they have Lib/ON margins of 6% and 9.6% respectively. Lib down 1% and ON up 3% wouldn’t change that.
Morphett would stay lineball – Labor down a few points but mostly to the Greens, and Libs down too to ON – not too much across-the-aisle movement.
Immigration is at only 6% of the top issues facing South Australia, and yet One Nation have a 26% vote share.
Where are they getting these people who don’t give a shit about their policy platform, and yet still vote for them anyways?
Facebook.