DemosAU: 59-41 to Labor (open thread)

The third pollster to take to the field since the federal election gives Labor its strongest result to date.

DemosAU has published its first federal poll since the election, producing Labor’s strongest result to date: a two-party lead of 59-41, compared with an election result of 55.2-44.8, from primary votes of Labor 36% (34.6% at the election), Coalition 26% (31.8%), Greens 14% (12.2%) and One Nation 9% (6.4%). The accompanying release has breakdowns by gender, age, education and residential tenure. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 1199.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,443 thoughts on “DemosAU: 59-41 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 28 of 29
1 27 28 29
  1. Bonza: “the most interesting topic ”

    Most interesting for the screechers addicted to the news media of their own personal echo chamber. It’s the perfect subject. No one can actually do anything about it, because it’s just one arbitrary abstract purity test vs another arbitrary abstract purity test. What you don’t get is that everyone isn’t addicted to your specific social media engagement algorithm.

    I’m always looking for info on things like Australian content. You know… Australian elections and things related to governance in Australia. You wouldn’t understand.

  2. Says you TPOF. But please don’t seek to rectify my moral position by reference to your own.

    The Holocaust is invoked by implication (and often explicitly) every time anybody ever reconsiders criticising Israeli policy towards its neighbours because they’re worried about moral pirhanas like yourself pecking away, invoking the “R” word against them to allegedly reveal the inner anti-Semite in their soul. Remonstrating with me for invoking it is a direct contradiction of your own argument.

    In a situation where Israeli policy sees innocent women and children slaughtered by the truckload in food queues, hospitals, workplaces and “safe” spaces to which they have been directed, their homes razed, their traditions trashed, their religion rubbished, their livelihoods, culture and aspirations reduced to mere memories, it’s fairly appropriate to measure that kind of barbarity against the barbarity of the Holocaust. Israel has been sheltering behind the Holocaust for too long. Now that they are indulging in a wilful, protracted Holocaust of their own (I dare you to explain to us how it isn’t), that particular moral redoubt is no longer valid.

    Find another reason to justify the slaughter of a hundred thousand or more civilians, the destruction of their homes, and the deliberate confiscation of their hope for the future.

  3. I 100% endorse every word of this article:

    “What if Ukraine falls? This is no longer a hypothetical question – and it must be answered:
    Europe offers platitudes, Trump dithers, and Ukraine and its extraordinary people stand on the brink. Nato must step up”
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jul/13/ukraine-europe-donald-trump-nato

    For 40 cruel and bloody months, Ukraine has fought the Russian invader. Since February 2022, when Moscow’s full-scale, countrywide onslaught began, its people have faced relentless, devastating attacks. Tens of thousands have been killed or wounded, millions have lost their homes. Ukraine’s industries, shops, schools, hospitals and power stations burn, its fertile farmlands are laid waste. Its children are orphaned, traumatised or abducted. Despite repeated appeals, the world has failed to stop the carnage. And yet Ukraine, outnumbered and outgunned, has continued to fight back.

    Ukrainian heroism amid horror has become so familiar, it’s almost taken for granted. But as Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, escalates the war, raining nightly terror on Kyiv and other cities using record waves of armed drones, as US support and peace efforts falter, and as Ukraine’s overstretched frontline soldiers face exhaustion, such complacency looks increasingly misplaced. A no longer hypothetical question becomes ever more real and urgent: what if Ukraine falls?

    Answer: Ukraine’s collapse, if it happens, would amount to an epic western strategic failure matching or exceeding the Afghanistan and Iraq calamities. The negative ramifications for Europe, Britain, the transatlantic alliance and international law are truly daunting. That thought alone should concentrate minds…

  4. Another point from https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jul/13/ukraine-europe-donald-trump-nato:

    … With or without Trump, Nato could take a tougher line, as repeatedly urged here, by imposing air exclusion zones over unoccupied Ukraine and targeting incoming missiles and drones. The military position is clearcut, the legal and humanitarian case is unassailable. Russia frequently infringes the sovereignty of Nato neighbours. Putin’s attempts at nuclear blackmail, which so unnerved Joe Biden, are contemptible. If it only had the balls, Nato could put him back in his box.

  5. Love the coal info dump Lurker. I’ve said it before; i think steel production will be the last carbon intensive industry to decarbonise. The good news is that the take-up of EVs is happening faster than most models predicted, and that is reducing one of the largest GHG sources; transport. Perhaps I’ll be surprised at how quickly steel production electrified over the next 20 years. That’s the timeline though…

  6. AFR breaking: Commonwealth Bank of Australia wants the government to consider cutting income taxes, overhauling the GST and introducing taxes on the wealthy.
    In an extraordinary submission to the national productivity review, the bank – and Australia’s most valuable company – also said that lowering company taxes should not be a top priority for Treasurer Jim Chalmers, and effectively endorsed his push to increase tax on super accounts with balances above $3 million. “Australia’s prosperity has been built on waves of reform to align our tax system to the economic demands and opportunities of the time. We now need to catalyse the next wave,” the submission says.

  7. paul A says:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 8:27 pm
    Go Vlad!

    That poster is a bigot. Completely obsessed with Commo China.

    A real loon.

    __________

    This horseshoe is almost a circle 🙂

  8. Pi
    Some people, when presented with human suffering, feel bad, want it to end, don’t want to believe nothing can be done, and don’t want to ignore it in favour of sport. Public pressure has been gradually making a difference.
    It has also been a different kind of interesting to see the way in which some people’s brains melt on this particular issue.

  9. Bonza: ” with human suffering,”

    You’re addicted to seeking out the media that satisfies that urge for you. It is literally on the other side of the world, and the only reason you’re interested in this particular set of events, is because of the social media engagement algorithm that feeds you. Like a junkie.

    Bonza: “It has also been a different kind of interesting to see the way in which some people’s brains melt on this particular issue.”

    You almost get it.

  10. Paul A
    You are a RWNJ who posted fake crap about the French and Hitler in January. You are a loon with no credibility.

    My concern tonight is the Upnorth bullshit postings regarding ‘wonderful China”.

    Upnorth – there are more trans and gay rights in Tehran, Moscow & Pyong Yang, than there are in your beloved China.
    Grow up idiot. All 4 countries are heavily repressive. Pull your head in.

  11. Vlad says:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 8:45 pm
    Paul A
    You are a RWNJ who posted fake crap about the French and Hitler in January. You are a loon with no credibility.

    My concern tonight is the Upnorth bullshit postings regarding ‘wonderful China”.

    Upnorth – there are more trans and gay rights in Tehran, Moscow & Pyong Yang, than there are in your beloved China.
    Grow up idiot. All 4 countries are heavily repressive. Pull your head in.

    _________

    Not enjoying your bedfellow? 🙂

  12. A big gamble in Bradfield – the odds of the Liberals winning the court case are probably lower than 50%. And a “Win” is unlikely to result in the Liberal being declared the winner – although that can in theory happen – but it is more likely to result in a by-election. The odds of winning a by-election would then be probably in the Teals favour.
    I personally didn’t think they would challenge but then again it was the state Liberals who got to decide. I couldn’t see the federal parliamentary party being too keen as any by-election puts the spot light on them.

  13. Snap! U beat me to it Griff:

    “Griff says:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 8:40 pm
    paul A says:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 8:27 pm
    Go Vlad!

    That poster is a bigot. Completely obsessed with Commo China.

    A real loon.

    __________

    This horseshoe is almost a circle ”

    __________

    I have a number for our United Anti-Labor enthusiasts:

    94

  14. Since the election here has been run and won, focus in Australia has been overwhelmingly on International events…mostly out of the horror of it all sadly.

    🙁

  15. Court of Disputed Returns time for Bradfield!

    Even if the Coalition overturns the election I reckon they’ll get smashed at the by-election for forcing people back to the polls.

  16. I think sprocket is right about Labor challenging in Bradfield if there is an election. All downside, no real upside. I mean it would be nice having 95 seats, but it would be worse to lose to a liberal. I think it would take the wind out of the sails. Easy to save money and let Boele take another blue-ribbon seat. That just means the liberals are fighting tooth-and-nail against both teals and the ALP. Either way though, the real test here is for Ley.

  17. How to shut down discussion of Palestine? Rob language of its meaning

    In Through the Looking Glass, Humpty Dumpty proclaims, ‘When I use a word it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less’. He then declares, ‘The question is which is to be master — that’s all.’
    https://www.crikey.com.au/2025/07/14/jillian-segal-antisemitism-envoy-plan-nasser-mashni/
    ———————————————-

    A rational society might prize the ability to distinguish between prejudice against Jewish people and allegations about the conduct of the state of Israel, writes Nasser Mashni, president of the Australia Palestine Advocacy Network. But in Australia, Jillian Segal’s antisemitism plan would only further blur that line.

    ——————————————-
    The antisemitism report would have benefited from a little — or any — understanding of basic public policy

    Jillian Segal’s antisemitism report betrays a strange ignorance of some of the basics of public policy.
    https://www.crikey.com.au/2025/07/14/antisemitism-report-jillian-segal-understanding-public-policy/
    ————————————————

    This isn’t how public policy works

    Regardless of your views on her recommendations, Jillian Segal’s antisemitism report seems bereft of a basic grasp of public policy, writes Bernard Keane. Indeed, Australia’s special envoy doesn’t seem to understand what powers the federal government actually has — and how they interact with the states and the justice system.

  18. Where on Earth are the attacks on UpNorth coming from?

    Misunderstanding of why that Chinese text appears in his posts, is it?

  19. Beansays:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 8:33 pm
    Wait sorry I thought we were talking about the movie Exodus from the 1960s with Paul Newman
    ———————————————————-

    Maybe your right. I was more thinking of a Charlton Heston movie myself. Plus other Cecil B. DeMille stuff. Though what I posted is probably more covered by the 1978 movie Joshua & Jericho.

  20. Australia sells weapons parts directly to Israel

    https://michaelwest.com.au/australia-sells-weapons-parts-directly-to-israel/

    “The scam is that the Government has long denied breaching international law by exporting weapons to Gaza, using tricky denials. Denial is no long credible however. Declassified Australia has published leaked documents which show F-35 parts being exported directly to Israel. These aircraft are deployed in bombing civilians in Gaza.

    Says Declassified’s Peter Cronau: “What we found is while sending most of them to a pool of parts in Europe and the US, they are sneaking some directly to Israel in cargo on commercial flights.”

    The Australian Government is now plausibly in contravention of international law, and at risk of prosecution for involvement in what the ICJ refers to as ‘plausible genocide’.

    Thee legal ramifications, risks, are noted in documents attached to the following story and letters of concern by human rights lawyer Benedict Coyne.”

  21. Wat & Kirsdarke

    I have spent nearly an hour trying to craft a kind message, but I am unable to do so because I am a bitter arsehole. I have deleted nearly a thousand words. All I am able to say is that it is unfortunate that you met one of your heroes because she constantly posts on social media. At least racist arseholes like Eric Clapton and Van Morrison don’t constantly tweet their awful views.

  22. “Arky says:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 8:58 pm
    Where on Earth are the attacks on UpNorth coming from?

    Misunderstanding of why that Chinese text appears in his posts, is it?”

    _________

    Animate inability to truly appreciate the majesty and power of 94.

    It’s driving them cra cra

  23. Torchbearer says:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 8:50 pm
    Since the election here has been run and won, focus in Australia has been overwhelmingly on International events…mostly out of the horror of it all sadly.

    _______

    Indeed. Many who have come to Australia have fled conflict. Yet some attempt to bring it here. As a colonialist country, plenty to get on with at home.

  24. Arkysays:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 8:58 pm
    Where on Earth are the attacks on UpNorth coming from?

    Misunderstanding of why that Chinese text appears in his posts, is it?
    —————————–
    He is a hypocrite Arky.
    He’s obsessed with China, except for the “nasty stuff”. You know the “Communist Party attacking trans & gays” bit. He’s very silent on that stuff, but loves his China. I think he’s an idiot, but given this site is about 90% Labor, he’ll get the usual “free pass”. Us 10%’ers, know how the site runs.

    There are probably a few gay/trans posters on this site. Wonder how they feel about him constantly promoting his beloved China. I suppose if it’s Labor on Labor, it’s OK then, isn’t it?
    ie: They just put up with it

  25. BB

    You can take it as a win, but 100,000 civilians slaughtered is the end of the road for me. Not even Hamas is claiming that.

    I continue to stand by what I post and your response just confirms it. I won’t bother to explain why what is happening in Gaza is not a Holocaust.

    I will simply say that your invoking the word is Holocaust denial. You are trashing the deaths of 6 million Jews deliberately murdered because they were Jews, not to mention the Romany. You are also trashing the deaths of countless Slavs and other “lesser” humans (according to Nazi mythology) whose lives did not require immediate extermination but who could be worked to death or simply disposed of in retribution or to strike fear.

    I know that others concerned about the fate of Palestinians in Gaza are drawn to your rhetoric, but there is a truth out there that people like you justify the policies of Netanyahu and the extremist shits who keep him in government. And while so many Israelis disagree with them, the attitudes of people like you make will make them think they are right after all.

    You are trashing the Holocaust into something the same as what goes on in the Congo, in Somalia, in Rwanda in the 1990s, in Cambodia in the 1970s, in South Africa in the Boer War and in endless other conflicts in the last two hundred years. You may not think there is any difference. The Jews of Israel do, with a hell of a lot of justification. And the outcome is that the push to make from the river to the sea a single Jewish state will intensify.

  26. Griffsays:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 8:40 pm
    paul A says:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 8:27 pm
    Go Vlad!

    That poster is a bigot. Completely obsessed with Commo China.

    A real loon.

    __________

    This horseshoe is almost a circle
    ——————————————

    It then begins to eat itself and we call it Ouroboros at this stage. The never ending political cycle.

  27. Arky says:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 8:58 pm
    Where on Earth are the attacks on UpNorth coming from?

    Misunderstanding of why that Chinese text appears in his posts, is it?

    _______________________________________________

    Nup. He’s just not agreeing explicitly with the rampant groupthink here.

  28. Pi says:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 8:52 pm
    I think sprocket is right about Labor challenging in Bradfield if there is an election. All downside, no real upside. I mean it would be nice having 95 seats,

    __________________________________________

    They don’t 95 seats – they don’t even need 94. The really important outcome of the last election was not the size of Labor’s win but the size of the Coalition’s loss. The fact that Labor offers the only viable government for Australia says more about its opposition than it does about Labor. Although full kudos to Albanese and his government to offer a government that actually behaves like adults and acts in the national interest.

  29. Entropy you haven’t yet got to the part where Vlad tells paul A to stfu because he only talks to grown ups lmao

  30. B. S. Fairmansays:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 8:49 pm
    A big gamble in Bradfield – the odds of the Liberals winning the court case are probably lower than 50%. And a “Win” is unlikely to result in the Liberal being declared the winner – although that can in theory happen – but it is more likely to result in a by-election. The odds of winning a by-election would then be probably in the Teals favour.
    I personally didn’t think they would challenge but then again it was the state Liberals who got to decide. I couldn’t see the federal parliamentary party being too keen as any by-election puts the spot light on them.
    ——————————————————————

    Still it represents a new opportunity for Pied Piper to get his hopes up before being ultimately crushed again. I could never tire of seeing that.

  31. @Paul the A:

    “There are probably a few gay/trans posters on this site. Wonder how they feel about him constantly promoting his beloved China. I suppose if it’s Labor on Labor, it’s OK then, isn’t it?
    ie: They just put up with it”

    _____

    I wonder how the gays and trans posters on here feel about you – amazeballs – becoming their champion tonight? I wonder whether they might suspect that they are being used as a handy McGuffin in aid of your little flame war with Upnorth. I’m guessing they have the taste of sick reading your unctuous hypocrisy.

    94 mate.

    Now be a sport: fuck off.

  32. Omar Comin’says:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 9:13 pm
    Entropy you haven’t yet got to the part where Vlad tells paul A to stfu because he only talks to grown ups lmao
    ————————————————————

    Isn’t that the part where both ends eat each other?

    I thought I covered that?

  33. TPOF

    “You are trashing the Holocaust into something the same as what goes on in the Congo, in Somalia, in Rwanda in the 1990s, in Cambodia in the 1970s, in South Africa in the Boer War and in endless other conflicts in the last two hundred years. You may not think there is any difference. The Jews of Israel do, with a hell of a lot of justification. And the outcome is that the push to make from the river to the sea a single Jewish state will intensify.”

    Well, in a lot of ways the Holocaust is another of those things… It’s the deliberate killing/displacement of a particular racial group.
    Sure the number of Jews killed in WWII was huge, but there were more Slavs killed, and were killed for basically the same reason. Because the Nazi’s were racist bastards who wanted to remove their genetics from humanity.

    Not downplaying it, but it is another example of the horrors of racism.

  34. Astrobleme says:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 9:18 pm
    TPOF

    What is happening in Gaza is genocide or ethnic cleansing. It is evil.

    ____________________________________________

    It’s trending that way. So is the West Bank. Hamas is desperately holding on to what little power it has.

    But it’s the use of the word Holocaust that is frightening.

    Anyone who actually knows and understands what happened in the Holocaust would understand this. People argue that Rwanda was as genocide and that Cambodia was a genocide and that Turkish Armenia was a genocide. Nobody uses the word “Holocaust” to describe these events. Turkey still denies the Armenian genocide even was a thing.

    The specific use of the word Holocaust in regard to Gaza, because it is Israel, is antisemitism for this reason.

  35. Pointscoring as to what does & does not constitute a Holocaust.
    The Likud Party may not have the collection of damnations against it that the Nazi Party has, but I think the State of Israel has long forfeited the right to scream Godwinish outrage whenever its actions are likened to Nazi atrocities.

  36. OC

    À treize was professional and also favoured by Front Populaire while à quinze was allegedly amateur and showed the true nobility of France. The game was banned, its assets given to Union and some officials did jail time.

    Bloody Hell! This is just part of the reason that where I live in France, Vichy is still remembered, and hated.

    It is also an echo of what happened in Australia. League was professional – the players got paid. Union was amateur – independent “gentlemen”.

    When we went en famille to France a few years ago I had to explain to my youngest that Union was the local game, like in NZ, and that it had nothing to do with class. My youngest is a Ginger, and fiery class warrior. And a mad keen Panfers fan.

    It is not all bad, as Hoyle pointed out the Catalan dragons do well in the English Super League and a few years ago there was a team from Toulouse Olympique is in the English second division.
    I think you said you spend some time near Carcassonne, home of the legendary Puig Aubert, the French GOAT who was known to smoke a gauloise while taking a conversion.

    I am further north than Carcassonne, in a small town called Sainte-Foy-La-Grande. It is a very Rugby town, and has had a rugby treize competition within memory. And, until 1900, it was Occitan speaking (it that related to rugby – who knows).

  37. Arkysays:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 8:58 pm
    Where on Earth are the attacks on UpNorth coming from?
    Misunderstanding of why that Chinese text appears in his posts, is it?
    _____________________
    Is he some sort of protected species is he Arky ?
    He will always be Showbag to me.
    Anyone who hails from Regional Australia can see through that cobber rubbish a mile away.
    It’s so fake.

  38. “It’s trending that way. So is the West Bank. Hamas is desperately holding on to what little power it has.”

    It was happening before Hamas existed… Hamas was a response to the ongoing ethnic cleansing.

    the West Bank could have been merged into Jordan… But Israel stopped it… Because they wanted it…
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peres%E2%80%93Hussein_London_Agreement

    This led to this:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Intifada
    and the start of Hamas

  39. Astrobleme

    Well, in a lot of ways the Holocaust is another of those things… It’s the deliberate killing/displacement of a particular racial group.
    Sure the number of Jews killed in WWII was huge, but there were more Slavs killed, and were killed for basically the same reason. Because the Nazi’s were racist bastards who wanted to remove their genetics from humanity.

    ________________________________________

    You still don’t get it. Treblinka was not set up to murder Slavs simply because they were Slavs. No extermination camp was set up to murder Slavs simply because they were Slavs. Slavs were not rounded up because they were Slavs and shipped to death camps. They were shipped to labor camps where they were worked to death, but they were not simply exterminated on the basis of who their mother or father was ethnically. Old people and children were not rounded up and systematically murdered because of who they were.

    Indeed, other than Nazi retribution activities, it was only the useful Slav adults who were sent to the labor camps to be worked to death. Any one, other than Jews (or Roma), who was not useful to be worked were left alone.

    Please read up seriously about the Holocaust before the word is thrown around cheaply as a middle finger to anyone who does not sign up to the anti-Israel bandwagon.

  40. MABWM says:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 8:27 pm

    upNorth is many things, but a hypocrite he is not. His on-line persona is the genuine article.

    中华人民共和国
    Thanks cobber! A few having a dig at me tonight. Don’t know my history. Don’t know my family and friends but you made the effort and I appreciated the feed we had together in BKK. Anyway if they are having a dig at me they are leaving some other poor bugger alone.

    Trust your trip home went well.

Comments Page 28 of 29
1 27 28 29

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *