The Mercury today reports on a third round of EMRS polling for the Liberal Party, the previous two of which were detailed in the previous post, with the latest encompassing a sample of 518 (the first two were reportedly 550) surveyed from Sunday to Tuesday. The latest result has a reported Liberal lead of 37% to 26%, out from 34.5% to 28.2% in the June 29 to July 1 round, with the Greens up from 13.9% to 15%, independents effectively unchanged at 18%, and the Nationals managing only 3% (remembering that they are contesting only three of the five divisions). Jeremy Rockliff leads Dean Winter 43-30 as preferred premier, in from 45-29 in the first round of polling a fortnight. The report is currently available only in the print edition but will likely be in the online edition by morning.
The Australia Institute has also been ekeing out result of a YouGov poll of 842 respondents conducted from June 12 to 16, which have not encompassed voting intention. The latest batch finds 55% believe Labor should attempt to form a minority government with Greens and independent support if unable to win a majority, with only 31% disagreeing, as compared with a respective 48% and 37% for the Liberal Party. An earlier round had 74% agreeing salmon companies should have to pay royalties for leases over public waters and 14% disagreeing, following a question saying economist Saul Eslake thought it a good idea, and 36% favouring “seeking more federal funding” as the best response to budgetary challenges, ahead of 29% for increasing mining royalties and 12% with replacing stamp duty with land tax on primary residences.
Mabwm: “As for refusing to form government, only the impotent are pure….”
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I think that, in this particular case, Labor’s refusal to deal with the Greens is less about purity and more about their ties to various vested interest groups, particularly some of the trade unions.
Engie Stadium the home ground of GWS Giants has a capacity of 25000, has no roof and hosts 8 games a year plus finals up to preliminary finals.
I think AFL threw in $60 million to get it up to standard.
That’s the level of ground Tassie should have.
A real boutique Stadium.
Sportsbet odds: Labor 1.35, Liberals 3.15.
So either the betting markets are very wrong, or the meagre polling so far is too rosy for the Liberals.
Assuming the polls are at least reasonably accurate there are essentially two possible outcomes post-election:
1. Liberals limp back into deep minority with the semi-official support of Labor in a Grand Coalition; this was already the de facto status quo before the good federal result gave Labor a whiff of hope and you’d assume a bad result would send them right back into their shell; you get the sense a lot of Tas Labor luminaries are essentially resigned to being in opposition forever and may in fact view that as preferable to giving the Greens influence over government.
2. Labor cuts a deal with several independents to form a government from even deeper minority, effectively gambling that they can give the Greens nothing and the latter will cave due to a lack of better options (which they almost certainly will, no way the Greens have the stomach to bring down a Labor government by voting with the Libs in this day and age). In both of these scenarios Dean Winter probably gets turfed, he’s simply too wedded to the idea of a Labor majority government to be trusted by the crossbench I feel.
My guess as to why the betting markets are so out of whack is that they think that Labor will cave and do a deal with the Greens
I hope that’s what happens
Loving seeing polling showing as many as 7 seats for the Greens, not sure I’ll dare dream of actually winning that many, especially with left wing independents running as well, but it would be awesome
HBG, yes thats my take on the betting markets too. This parliamentary cross bench is looking a few more seats left than the last one. The JLN were basically torys.
Some really interesting comments here today.
Meher Baba’s point that the ALP “can’t” form a coalition with the Greens based on union ties is probably right. (ALP folk love taunting the Greens with the line about only the impotent being pure. Funny how this time the foot is on the other boot, so to speak…)
The point that the gamblers see the result so differently is astounding.
The complete absence of credible and reputable polling is bizarre.
Godless heathen @ 5.47 – great analysis. (I think the polling is inadequate, but I enjoyed your thinking.)
And what of the stadium? Is this the first time in history a sporting organisation has brought down a government? The AFL is bigger than Tasmania, but that is no excuse. According to Google, The AFL’s GDP was $6 billion in 23/4. Tasmania’s was $40 billion. The tail is well and truly wagging the dog.
This election will make great, or terrible, or great and terrible viewing. I demand an Antony Green comeback.
I look forward to a majority Greens government!!!
And may Abetz lose his suit.
@Mostly Interested says: Friday, July 11, 2025 at 6:44 pm
Bludgeoned Westie, based on the series of sub 30s for Labor I’m not sure they’ll get more than 2 in each electorate. Yes, thats right 10 seats.
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If the next few pollings are similar to the results from the recent DemosAU poll, then I’d be 100% sure that Labor will stay at 10 seats. In particular, Dr Bonham’s estimates of that poll shows it’s possible both George and O’Byrne can win in Franklin and the Nationals can win a seat. I feel like I can be more generous for third parties and IND in my next prediction because I now have some idea where the former JLN seats will go rather than have them default to Labor.
Ig this is a pretty convoluted way of saying my prediction aged like milk.
I just put $50 on the Libs – seems like easy money to me. I might only vote for them a week after Hell has frozen over (I’m on record in the Senate archives somewhere saying that) but I really can’t see anyone but Rockliff getting sworn in after the election. Only result of the no-conf motion, getting rid of JLN; situtation same as before in other respects (or maybe a bit worse for Labor)
I’m thinking about putting a bet on the Liberals at this point – Labor can’t win a majority on current polling and I like my chances that Winter will refuse to form government if the polls are correct. It makes for unusually easy betting pickings compared to a situation where both parties were prepared to govern in minority.
New thread.