Category: Tasmanian Election 2025

The Tasmanian state election finally arrives at its moment of truth with the return of state parliament from 10am today, at which Labor’s constructive vote of no confidence will be voted on. With the Greens announcing yesterday that they will not support the motion, it appears the vote will confirm the Liberals in government. The two between them command 19 votes out of 35, to which can be added independents David O’Byrne and Kristie Johnston. A Liberal promise to halt aquaculture expansions pending an independent review, which was slammed by Labor, even won positive noises from Craig Garland and Peter George. Only Carlo Di Falco of Shooters Fishers and Farmers, who has proclaimed the Liberals’ proposed ban on greyhound racing a “line in the sand”, would appear to be firmly in Labor’s corner. Labor has enlisted an upper house independent, Ruth Forrest, to serve as Treasurer in Dean Winter’s prospective government, but this doesn’t yield any advantage in the confidence motion – and may indeed have harmed it, given O’Byrne cited it as evidence that Labor could not offer stable government.

Meanwhile, a poll conducted Tuesday to Thursday by EMRS from a small sample of 503 finds 35% in favour of a no confidence motion and 49% opposed. It records 74% support for the Liberals’ greyhound phase-out, with 14% opposed, and 61% supporting its abandonment of opening 40,000 hectares of native forest for harvesting, with 24% opposed. A preferred treasurer question has Ruth Forrest on 40% and Labor’s former Shadow Treasurer Josh Willie on 10%, while for the Liberals current and former Treasurers Eric Abetz and Guy Barnett score 25% and 15% respectively.

Three-and-a-half weeks on, there remains no resolution to the July 19 Tasmanian election, which ended with Liberal on 14 seats, Labor on 10, the Greens on five, independents with five and one from Shooters Fishers and Farmers, with neither Liberal nor Labor winning the confidence-and-supply guarantees needed from cross-benchers. Owing to an unusual provision in the Tasmanian Constitution Act, in which ministers’ terms expire automatically seven days after the return of the election writs, the Governor was obliged to recommission Jeremy Rockliff’s Liberal government last week, inclusive of a ministerial reshuffle. But its survival is not ensured beyond the return of parliament next Tuesday, at which Labor leader Dean Winter plans to move a “constructive no confidence motion”, meaning one that puts Labor in government rather than requiring yet another election. There appears a good chance that this will be accomplished with the reluctant support of the Greens and at least three independents, even without formal commitments to support it through a full term in office.

Labor is determined not to enter anything that might be characterised as a deal with the Greens, without taking the principle to its ultimate conclusion by allowing the Liberals to remain in government, as was done in similar circumstances after the 1996 election. The Liberals are duly looking for four votes out of the six non-Greens cross-benchers, and appear unable to find them: independents Craig Garland, Peter George and Kristie Johnston have all signalled hostility in varying degrees, despite the Liberals offering a multi-party “budget panel”, a ban on greyhound racing and the protection of 40,000 hectares of forest from logging. Labor’s disinclination to follow suit presumably reflects confidence in the strength of their position, despite mounting expressions of frustration from both independents and Greens.

Click here for full display of Tasmanian results.

Saturday update: final result

Independent George Razay has won the last seat in Bass, remaining ahead of Michal Frydrych pf Shooters Fishers and Farmers after being slightly favoured by the Liberal preference flows resulting from the exclusion of Simon Wood and election of Rob Fairs, then emerging ahead of both Labor candidates with the distribution of Frydrych’s vote. With two vacancies and three candidates, the final round had Razay on 6968, Jess Greene winning the second Labor seat with 6555, and third Labor candidate Geoff Lyons losing out with 6294. That means a definitive final result of Liberal 14, Labor 10, Greens five, independents five and Shooters one – different from the 2024 result only in that three Jacqui Lambie Network seats are now two independent and one Shooters.

Friday update

Today’s counting saw a major development in Bass, where I now think the last seat likely to go independent George Razay rather than a third Labor or Shooters Fishers and Farmers, and the conclusion of the count in Lyons, which confirmed a result of three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens and one Shooters Fishers and Farmers. That would leave Liberal, Labor and the Greens all unchanged on the last parliament at 14, 10 and five seats respectively, along with one from Shooters and five independents.

I had thought George Razay likely to drop out at around the current point in the count in Bass, but he surged ahead of Michal Frydrych of Shooters Fishers and Farmers today upon the exclusion of independent incumbent Rebekah Pentland, gaining 1016 of her 3078 votes compared with 608 for Frydrych, 542 for the three Labor candidates and 336 for the two Liberals. Razay also gained 535 from the exclusion of two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens candidate, compared with 336 for Fyrdrych. It is also now established that the Liberals will only win three seats, with their prospective fourth winner Simon Wood the next to be excluded. His preferences will then elect the only remaining Liberal, Rob Fairs, but will assuredly not overturn the 4714 to 4348 vote lead Razay has now opened over Frydrych, who stands to be the next eliminated. Today’s counting also left Jess Greene looking the sure winner of Labor’s second seat ahead of Geoff Lyons, whom she now leads 5922 to 5461. The last seat will duly be a question of whether Razay can close the gap of 5461 to 4717 against Lyons on preferences from Frydrych, of which there will be about 4500, and upwards of 2000 votes’ worth of Liberal surplus, which I am inclined to think he will do quite handily.

Carlo Di Carlo of Shooters Fishers and Farmers ended up comfortably winning the final seat in Lyons, the final count deciding the last two seats with 8612 for third Liberal Mark Shelton, 8439 for Di Carlo and 5754 for the unsuccessful fourth Liberal, Stephanie Cameron. Di Carlo did particularly well out of the Nationals exclusion, providing him with 1067 votes compared with 400 for Shelton and 240 for Cameron.

Thursday update

Today’s proceedings finalised the result in Clark, with Madeleine Ogilvie confirmed as the winner of the second Liberal ahead of fellow incumbent Simon Behrakis by 7082 votes to 6902, and put to bed any thought of the Liberals winning a fourth seat in Lyons at the expense of Shooters Fishers and Farmers. That leaves in in doubt only the last seat in Bass, which will provide Liberal, Labor or Shooters with one extra seat to add to their respectively confirmed 14, 10 and one.

In Bass, Greens incumbent Cecily Rosol crossed the quota threshold with the exclusion of the third-placed Greens candidate, and preferences were distributed from one candidate each of the Nationals, Labor, the Greens and the Liberals. That leaves three Liberals: Rob Fairs, who is certain to win a third seat for the party, and Simon Wood and Chris Gatenby, who are the contenders for a potential fourth. Julie Sladden’s preferences narrowed Gatenby’s deficit by 79 votes, though Wood continues to lead him by 2606 to 2475. That may leave Gatenby out of runway, as he looks set to go out before the two independents who are the only potential remaining source of substantial Liberal preferences. The exclusion of Labor’s Will Gordon helped narrow Geoff Lyons’ deficit against Jess Greene in the race for Labor’s second seat from 36 votes to 21. Some clarity here will be offered first thing tomorrow with the distribution of the other remaining Labor candidate, Luke Moore – remembering that whoever falls short will remain in contention for the last seat. In the tussle between a fourth Liberal, a third Labor and Shooters, the decisive factors will be preference flows from a soon-to-be-excluded second Greens candidate and independents Rebekah Pentland and George Razay.

Two of the remaining four Liberal candidates were excluded today in Lyons, leaving certain winner Mark Shelton and outside chance Stephanie Cameron. Such was Liberal leakage that it can no longer be said that both would be ahead of Carlo Di Carlo of Shooters Fishers and Farmers if only their votes were evenly split. Cameron in fact has 5183 votes to Di Carlo’s 6425, and only the imminent distribution of 3207 Nationals votes offers the potential to close the gap. Some insight into how that will go was provided when the Nationals candidate was excluded today in Bass: 309 preferences were split among four Liberals while 252 votes went to Shooters. With any Liberal preferences from the Nationals to be divided between Cameron and Shelton, this suggests Nationals preferences will in fact do Cameron more harm than good.

Wednesday update

An overdue update on the progress of the preference exclusions in the three divisions that I did not consider done-and-dusted, the upshot of which is that the Liberals have 14 seats, Labor 10 and the Greens five – exactly as was the case in the previous parliament – with four independents and two in doubt, one in Bass and one in Lyons. The Lyons seat looks to me very likely to go to Shooters Fishers and Farmers ahead of a fourth Liberal. The Bass seat could be a fifteenth seat for Liberal, an eleventh for Labor or a second for Shooters.

Bass. Liberals Bridget Archer and Michael Ferguson and Labor’s Janie Finlay have been elected so far, and will shortly be joined by Cecily Rosol of the Greens, with the final stages of the count to determine the last three seats. Either or both of Jess Greene and Geoff Lyons can win further seats for Labor; Rob Fairs will certainly win a third seat for the Liberals, and could be joined by Simon Wood or Chris Gatenby; and Michal Frydrych may or may not win a seat for Shooters Fishers and Farmers. In the race for Labor’s certain second seat, Lyons held a slender lead over Greene of 2399 to 2304 on first preferences, but Greene has edged into a lead of 2798 to 2762 on the preference distributed so far. Greene has done better than Lyons out of Labor, Greens, Liberal and Nationals preferences, so it appears likely Lyons will have to rely on Labor winning a third seat. Julie Sladden trails out the four remaining Liberals: should they win a fourth seat, her preferences will likely decide the winner out of Wood and Gatenby, who are currently on 2094 and 1905 respectively. Wood did better than Gatenby out of Bridget Archer’s preferences, but Gatenby did better out of the excluded Sarah Quaile.

Clark. The result here will be two each for Liberal, Labor and the Greens, plus independent Kristie Johnston. The point at issue is who out of incumbents Simon Behrakis and Madeleine Ogilvie will join newcomer Marcus Vermey as the second Liberal. Behrakis’s lead has narrowed from 656 (5122 to 4452) on first preferences to 117 (6311 to 6194), most of which was down to the exclusion of Ogilvie’s fellow female Liberal Jessica Barnett, which narrowed the gap by 452. The next distributions will involve the election and exclusion of Labor and Greens candidates, few of whose preferences will flow to the Liberals, which makes the decisive factor the preferences of former Liberal independent Elise Archer, who scored 2141 first preferences and is now on 3422. My intuition is that these will very substantially flow to the Liberals and largely favour Ogilvie, to the extent that she should be rated the favourite.

Lyons. With two Liberals already elected and a third shortly to follow, Labor assured of two and the Greens assured of one, the other seat will come down to Carlo Di Falco of Shooters Fishers and Farmers and a fourth Liberal. Di Falco has 5656 votes while four Liberal candidates remaining in the count have 13,018 between them, some of which will leak. Two Liberals, Mark Shelton and Stephanie Cameron, could both squeeze Di Falco out if there votes were evenly divided, but that’s not the case: Shelton has 5488 and Cameron has 3107, which leaves Cameron needing most of the preferences shortly to be distributed from the two other Liberals, Richard Hallett and Poppy Lyne, who have 4513 between them, to get ahead of Di Falco. If there is any hope for Cameron, it’s in Lyne’s 2091 votes and the tendency of preferences to flow strongly between female candidates. With Labor and Greens preferences unlikely to have much bearing on the situation, the only remaining variable is the 2833 votes currently locked up with lead Nationals candidate John Tucker. Nationals exclusions to this point suggest Tucker’s preferences will favour the Liberals over Shooters slightly if at all, and the ones that go to the Liberals will be split between Shelton and Cameron.

Saturday

Surprises cannot be ruled out, but as counting for the Tasmanian election enters its second week, only one major issue looks to be in doubt: the last seat in Bass, which will likely mean either a fifteenth seat for the Liberals or an eleventh for Labor in the 35-seat House of Assembly. The cross-bench, on which everything now hinges, is likely to consist of five Greens, four independents who would each seem in normal circumstances more likely to favour Labor than Liberal, and one from Shooters Fishers and Farmers.

I haven’t been following counting over the past week because the general picture of a Tasmanian election is clear enough in terms of vote share by the Sunday – the important question from that point is how preferences will flow, which we don’t find out about until the first preference count is complete. The Tasmanian Electoral Commission relates we are on the cusp of that stage, notwithstanding that postals arriving as late as Tuesday will be admitted to the count:

From noon tomorrow (i.e. today), preparations for the Hare-Clark count begin with the amalgamation of ballot papers. This step brings together ballot papers for each candidate, from all polling places, to enable the distribution of preferences. Further preparations for the Hare-Clark count will include a preliminary distribution of preferences for leading candidates who have already exceeded the expected quota. This will take place on Monday and then pause until all final postal votes are returned.

Whereas preference distributions for Senate and mainland upper house counts are a black box until the button is pressed, the preference distribution process for Tasmanian elections are a rich source of interest, as the TEC provides progress scores of each distribution as they occur. With all that in mind, a summary of each seat in turn, with most of the useful insights leaning heavily on the reportage of Kevin Bonham:

Bass. The clear part of the result here is Liberal three, Labor two and Greens one, with the last seat likely to go to be a fourth Liberal or a third Labor, though a range of dark-horse possibilities include a seat for Shooters Fishers and Farmers and a second for the Greens. The biggest point of interest so far as Monday’s distribution of candidates with full quotas is concerned is the 0.55 quota surplus of leading Liberal Bridget Archer, with observers at the coalface indicating that as much of a quarter of this is leaking out of the Liberal ticket, particularly to the advantage of female Labor and Greens candidates.

Braddon. The result here is clear: four Liberal (Jeremy Rockliff, Gavin Pearce, Felix Ellis and Roger Jaensch), two Labor (Anita Dow and Shane Broad) and one independent (Craig Garland).

Clark. While this seems a clear result of two each for Liberal, Labor and the Greens plus independent Kristie Johnston, a point of interest remains as to which of Liberal incumbents Simon Behrakis and Madeleine Ogilvie win the party’s second seat, the first being a clear win for newcomer Marcus Vermey. Behrakis leads Ogilvie by 5109 to 4441 on first preferences, and Kevin Bonham’s direct observations from scrutineering suggest Ogilvie is unlikely to close the gap.

Franklin. Kevin Bonham has some observations of interest to those invested in the deep lore of Tasmanian politics, but the result is not in doubt: two Liberal (Eric Abetz and Jacquie Petrusma), two Labor (Dean Winter and Meg Brown), one Greens (Rosalie Woodruff) and two independents (Peter George and David O’Byrne).

Lyons. On top of a clear Liberal three, Labor two and Greens one, my post-election review suggested the last seat was very likely to go to Carlo Di Falco of Shooters Fishers and Farmers, with some chance for a fourth Liberal and the Nationals. The Nationals were probably never really a chance, and the odds on a fourth Liberal look to have shortened further. Kevin Bonham relates that scrutineering indicates independent and Nationals preferences are not closing the gap to the degree required by fourth Liberal Stephanie Cameron, whose chances have been further harmed by a weakening in her share of first preferences.

Click here for full display of Tasmanian results.

End of night

I’ve been wrong before about Hare-Clark, but my take on the result is that the Liberals are looking 14 or 15 seats, meaning they have either broken even or gained one; Labor will win 10 or 11, meaning ditto; the Greens have broken even with five; the three independents elected in 2024 will be joined by a fourth; Shooters Fishers and Farmers should win their first ever seat and are a chance of a second; and the balance is accounted for by the evaporation of the Jacqui Lambie Network, none of whose three members have prospered either as independents or Nationals. Four of the five divisions seem to me to have straightforward results, the exception being Bass, though others might also cast doubt over Lyons.

The Liberals gained about 4% everywhere except Franklin, where independent Peter George’s 17.6% drained all comers. This reflected an 8% to 10% Jacqui Lambie Network vote from 2024 being up for grabs in the three regional divisions, only around 2% of which went to the Nationals in Bass and Braddon, increasing to a bit over 4% in Lyons. Conversely, the JLN vacuum didn’t prevent Labor dropping by a few points across the board, though not seemingly at a cost of any seats.

Eric Abetz won the evening’s creative electoral accounting prize for trying to make something out of the Greens’ 6.4% drop in Franklin, but this was clearly down to support for Peter George from voters who would happily have stayed green in his absence. Elsewhere the Greens were up by between 0.4% in Clark and 4.3% in Bass, with some help from a no-show from Animal Justice who polled 1.5% statewide last year. Only half of an increase in the aggregate independent vote from 9.6% to 15.3% was down to George: Craig Garland in Braddon and Kristie Johnston in Clark doubled their vote share, and the competition from George didn’t prevent David O’Byrne from gaining handily in Franklin.

To deal with the five divisions in turn:

Bass. The Liberals clearly have enough for three seats (3.31 quotas), Labor for two (2.21 quotas) and the Greens for one (1.32 quotas), but the seventh seat is unclear. The Greens face the problem that their incumbent, Cecily Rosol, should soak up most of the party’s lower-order preferences without getting elected until near the end of the count, meaning their other candidates will fall by the wayside. Two Liberals (Bridget Archer and Michael Ferguson) and one Labor (Janie Finlay) will be elected early in the count, with Rosol winning only when the last other Green is excluded. Incumbent Rob Fairs will then win a a third seat for the Liberals, and either Jess Greene or Geoff Lyons (both newcomers, though the latter a former federal member) a second for Labor. The last seat will come down a fourth Liberal (impossible to pick out of incumbent Simon Wood and newcomers Julie Sladden and Chris Gatenby), a third Labor (whichever out of Greene or Lyons didn’t win the second) and Michal Frydrch of Shooters Fishers and Farmers. The starting point for this game of musical chairs is 0.37 quotas for Shooters, a 0.31 surplus over their third quota for the Liberals, and a 0.21 surplus over the second quota for Labor. Labor will presumably get a fair chunk of the Greens’ surplus, and the 18.3% vote for the distinctly moderate Archer means a higher-than-usual share of the Liberals’ own vote is likely to leak out of the ticket, some of it to Labor (and presumably not much to Shooters).

Braddon. The Liberals are only a fraction short of four quotas, meaning incumbents Jeremy Rockliff, Felix Ellis and Roger Jaensch are to be joined by a fourth in former federal member Gavin Pearce. Labor is only just shy of two, ensuring re-election for Anita Dow and Shane Broad. Independent Craig Garland doubled the vote that got him narrowly got him elected last time, and had more reason to be cheerful than his ABC TV interview suggested. The Greens, with 0.58 quotas, are no threat to him, and the Nationals managed only 1.6%, ending the short parliamentary career of Miriam Beswick, who ran with the party after winning a seat for the Jacqui Lambie Network in 2024.

Clark. A straightforward status quo result in terms of party seat share: the Liberals retain two, with Simon Behrakis re-elected and newcomer Marcus Vermey to unseat Madeleine Ogilvie; Josh Willie and Ella Haddad are re-elected for Labor; Vica Bayley and Helen Burnet are re-elected for the Greens; and independent Kristie Johnston is handsomely re-elected with 15.2%, after dipping from 11.0% to 7.7% in 2024.

Franklin. Peter George’s win looks like coming at the expense of the Liberals, with Eric Abetz and Jacqui Petrusma re-elected but Nic Street missing out. The party has a seemingly solid 2.70 quotas, but stands to receive next to no preferences. Despite the 6.4% gouge taken out of their vote by George, the Greens have 1.11 quotas, ensuring re-election for party leader Rosalie Woodruff, and their preferences together with George’s should ensure that Labor’s 1.82 quotas converts to re-election for Dean Winter and Meg Brown, and that 0.88 is enough to re-elect former Labor leader and now independent incumbent David O’Byrne.

Lyons. It is clear the Liberals will win three seats, re-electing incumbents Jane Howlett, Guy Barnett and Mark Shelton; that Labor will win two, with Jen Butler re-elected and former federal member Brian Mitchell unseating Casey Farrell, who recently filled Rebecca White’s vacancy; and that Tabatha Badger will retain her seat for the Greens. I don’t see the last seat going to anyone other than Carlo Di Falco of Shooters Fishers and Farmers, though others are more circumspect. He has 0.58 quotas and will not suffer leakage, being the only candidate on the ticket. His competition are the Nationals on 0.34 quotas, which means former Liberal member John Tucker; and a fourth Liberal, Stephanie Cameron, given that party’s 0.32 surplus over their third quota. Postals and the New Norfolk pre-poll booth have the potential to change the equation a bit, but past experience suggests not much. So presumably either Tucker or Cameron goes out and their preferences decide the last seat between Di Carlo and the other. I tend to think nearly as many Nationals preferences would go to the Shooters as the Liberals, but if the Liberals go out, maybe there’s some hope for Tucker.

Election night

10.18pm. If anyone’s finding my live results of value, please note that the considerable effort has thus far gone unremunerated, a situation any one of you can correct using the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the site and post.

9.45pm. Bird of Paradox in comments reiterates a point I made during my podcast appearance with Ben Raue that has since slipped my mind, which is that a fair chunk of the 41.4% Liberal vote comes from an 18.3% vote for Bridget Archer, much of which might be from people otherwise not favourably disposed towards the party. My previous assessment had Bass at three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens and the last seat a race between a fourth Liberal and a second Green – I’d suggest leakage from Archer would shorten the odds on the latter.

9.25pm. Struggling Labor election night panellists have been invoking the potential for late-reporting pre-poll booths to turn things around, as their Coalition equivalents did on the night of the federal election. However, the first three pre-polls are not encouraging on this count. Two are in from Bass: George Town, where the Liberals are up 7.4%, and Scottsdale, where they are up 5.2%, which compares with 3.8% on election day results; and Burnie in Braddon, where they are up 3.4% compared with 4.2%.

8.08pm. So assuming I’m right about all that — and minds better attuned to mine that Hare-Clark will have been focusing their full attention on this while I was hunting bugs — I’ve got Liberal matching their 14 from the previous parliament and hoping for as many as 16. A status quo of 10 looks like the best Labor can hope for, and they may be down to nine. The Greens look like holding their five seats with possibilities of one or two gains through a second seat in Bass or a first in Braddon. The three independents are re-elected and will be joined by Peter George and possibly one of his running mates, plus Shooters look like having a seat. None of the JLN class are making a mark, whether as independents or Nationals.

7.59pm. Shooters are doing very well in Lyons, suggesting Carlo Di Falco could be joining three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens. Brian Mitchell looks like being a third recently departed federal member to win a state seat, taking one of Labor’s two off incumbent Casey Farrell with Jen Butler re-elected. The three Liberal incumbents are untroubled.

7.56pm. Peter George doing well enough in Franklin to potentially elect a running mate off his coat-tails, which would come at the expense of a third Liberal if it happened – the rest looks like Labor two, Greens one plus David O’Byrne. Labor newcomer Jess Munday is polling disappointingly, suggesting Labor’s seats to remain with the incumbents. Eric Abetz and Jacqui Petrusma will be elected, with Nic Street the loser if George gets that second seat.

7.52pm. A big shift in Clark from Labor to Kirstie Johnston, but it still looks like a status quo of two Labor, two Liberal, two Greens and Johnston, with Elise Archer failing to register. Madeleine Ogilvie looks like losing one of the two Liberal seats to newcomer Marcus Vermey, the strongest on the Liberal ticket.

7.50pm. A big result in Braddon suggests this is a good night for the Liberals, suggesting four seats with former federal member Gavin Pearce taking the second without unseating any of the incumbents, namely clear leader Jeremy Rockliff followed by Felix Ellis and Roger Jaensch. Labor are down as much as the Liberals are up, such that they might even be reduced to Anita Dow — Shane Broad, if he gets up at all, will first have to overcome Vanessa Bleyer of the Greens. Craig Garland has a quota in his own right, making the result four Liberal, one Labor, one Greens and Craig Garland, with the last seat either a second Liberal or first Green.

7.46pm. In Bass we’ve got big movement from Labor to the Greens, suggesting polls showing the Greens a shot at a second seat might have been on the money. Shooters are polling well no doubt because of an imbalance of rural booths in the current numbers. The Liberals are up, so my initial impression here is Liberal three, Labor two and Greens one, with the last seat a battle between a fourth Liberal and a second Green. Janie Finlay assuredly gets Labor’s first seat with Jess Greene and Geoff Lyons fighting for the second; huge result for Bridget Archer, to be followed by Michael Ferguson and Rob Fairs, with Simon Wood doing no better than lower-order newcomers in the race for a possible fourth seat; anyone’s guess who a second Green might be. Rebekah Pentland is failing to register as an independent.

7.40pm. I think I might have fixed the problem now, so will finally have some analysis to offer shortly.

7.15pm. I believe there is a problem with my projections, which are at present too favourable for the Liberals, but the system should at least be of use for observing results and swings at booth level.

6.50pm. So anyway, we’ve got one small rural booth in for each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons, and a mobile result from Clark from which my swing figure won’t tell you anything useful. But the first three all have Liberal well up and Labor well done. Early days though obviously, with about 400 votes in all.

6.48pm. Eric Abetz on the ABC wishes he had swing figures from the Irishtown booth. The only and only place you can find such a thing is through the link above.

6.44pm. A little later than I’d have figured, there are some numbers and my system seems to be processing them okay.

6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Tasmanian state election count. Polls are now closed and we should be getting the first results from small rural booths fairly shortly. Through the link above you will find live updated results throughout the night and beyond, inclusive of an effort to project party vote shares in each of the five divisions through booth-matched swings.

UPDATE (18/7 9pm): Now YouGov, which began the campaign with a poll painting a much rosier picture for Labor than its peers, ends it in the same fashion, while still finding them having faded over the course of the campaign. The Liberal vote is unchanged at 31%, with Labor down four to 30%, the Greens up three to 16% and independents up two to 20%. It also provides a two-party preferred result (redundant of course under Hare-Clark, except for purposes of comparison) showing Labor leading 55-45, and has Dean Winter leading Jeremy Rockliff by the same amount. The poll was conducted July 7 to 18 from a sample of 931.

Tasmania’s unwanted and unloved state election campaign is drawing to a conclusion, and the Poll Bludger will as always be the place to watch the action as it unfolds tomorrow evening, courtesy of a live results facility that will look broadly similar to last year’s, perhaps with a few bonus features if I can work them out in time.

The one bit of substantial late polling comes courtesy of the Liberal Party, which has been providing regular numbers from its internal research by EMRS to The Mercury, and I for one am trusting enough to think they’re not just making them up. The latest result apparently encompasses 1000 responses from two waves of polling this week and last week, the latter of which was reported earlier in The Mercury, and records no change in having the Liberals leading 37% to 26%, with the Greens down one to 14% and the collective independent vote up one to 19%.

Two other minor items of polling: the same Mercury report that has the EMRS numbers relates that Pyxis (the company responsible for Newspoll) finds 34% think the government deserves to be re-elected compared with 53% for “time to give someone else a go”; and Pulse Tasmania reports a Community Engagement finding that 28.3% out of 872 respondents surveyed in the division of Franklin favour David O’Byrne for Labor leader ahead of 15.7% for Dean Winter.

For any who missed it, here’s another embed of my appearance with Ben Raue of The Tally Room, which was recorded on Monday.

The Mercury today reports on a third round of EMRS polling for the Liberal Party, the previous two of which were detailed in the previous post, with the latest encompassing a sample of 518 (the first two were reportedly 550) surveyed from Sunday to Tuesday. The latest result has a reported Liberal lead of 37% to 26%, out from 34.5% to 28.2% in the June 29 to July 1 round, with the Greens up from 13.9% to 15%, independents effectively unchanged at 18%, and the Nationals managing only 3% (remembering that they are contesting only three of the five divisions). Jeremy Rockliff leads Dean Winter 43-30 as preferred premier, in from 45-29 in the first round of polling a fortnight. The report is currently available only in the print edition but will likely be in the online edition by morning.

The Australia Institute has also been ekeing out result of a YouGov poll of 842 respondents conducted from June 12 to 16, which have not encompassed voting intention. The latest batch finds 55% believe Labor should attempt to form a minority government with Greens and independent support if unable to win a majority, with only 31% disagreeing, as compared with a respective 48% and 37% for the Liberal Party. An earlier round had 74% agreeing salmon companies should have to pay royalties for leases over public waters and 14% disagreeing, following a question saying economist Saul Eslake thought it a good idea, and 36% favouring “seeking more federal funding” as the best response to budgetary challenges, ahead of 29% for increasing mining royalties and 12% with replacing stamp duty with land tax on primary residences.

At the end of the first week of the three-week early voting period, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission relates that 16,817 votes have already been cast at pre-poll voting centres, more than double the 7,650 from the equivalent stage of last year’s election. There is no further news on the polling front, which doesn’t come as too much of a surprise, unless you count a social media post from RedBridge Group director Kos Samaras saying he “believe(s) there is another in the field (not ours) that has the Liberals in front by a fair chunk”, which would be consistent with the DemosAU poll and inconsistent with YouGov. The indefatigable Kevin Bonham says he is “aware of a third (private) poll which I may say more about that falls somewhere between these two, with a far lower but still quite high independent vote (around 12%) and the Liberals slightly ahead, with both majors in the low 30s”.

The dominant electoral story of the past week is the Liberal Party’s suggestion that it will challenge the eligibility of Jessica Munday, high-profile non-incumbent Labor candidate for Franklin, on the grounds that her seat on the WorkCover Tasmania board constitutes an office of profit under the Crown. This would presumably involve a challenge through the Court of Disputed Returns in the event that she is elected, which if upheld could lead to another candidate being declared elected or a fresh election being held in Franklin. Kevin Bonham notes the obvious recourse of a recount of the existing votes, as occurs when a seat falls vacant, “would be unsatisfactory as this would reward a party that had run an ineligible high-profile candidate”.

A legal opinion prepared for the Liberal Party goes so far as to raise the prospect of “the result of the general election across all electoral divisions being declared void”, which from this bush lawyer’s perspective seems a bit of a stretch – a view that has the concurrence of Kevin Bonham (again). Labor has responded with legal advice from former Solicitor-General Michael O’Farrell endorsing its position that a constitutional amendment from 1944 distinguishes the state provision from its federal equivalent, such that it does not apply to Munday’s case.

UPDATE (6/7): The Sunday Tasmanian today reports on two rounds of recent EMRS polling for the Liberal Party, from samples of 550 each. The more recent, from June 29 to July 1, had the Liberals leading Labor 34.5% to 28.2%, with the Greens on (I gather) 13.9% and independents on 17.8%. An earlier round from June 15 to 17 had the Liberals on 32.3%, Labor on 28.7%, the Greens on 14.0% and independents on 19.2%. The Nationals hardly registered in either. Results from Franklin, which one would hope combine the samples from both polls, are Liberal 39.2%, Labor 23.0%, Greens 16.1% and independents 21.7%, with the Liberals seemingly expecting a result of Liberal three, Labor one, Greens one and David O’Byrne one, with the last seat a race between independent candidate Peter George and a second Labor candidate. The Liberals are “hopeful of picking up a fourth seat in Braddon after seeing the EMRS results and believe they are also a chance of securing a fourth in Bass”.

Results from a second poll of the Tasmanian election campaign, conducted by DemosAU for an unidentified peak body, have been published in full by Pulse Tasmania, providing breakdowns by division from substantial sub-samples, the overall sample being 4289. The results are markedly more favourable to the Liberals than the YouGov poll, though both have similar field work periods: June 19 to 26 for DemosAU, June 15 to 25 for YouGov. Both major parties are down on the 2024 result, the Coalition from 36.7% to 34.0% and Labor from 29.0% to 26.3%, with the Greens up from 13.9% to 15.0% and independents from 9.6% to 19.3%.

The tables below account for both pollsters’ divisional breakdowns, together with the results from 2024 election.

My own take on how the DemosAU result would play out is that the Liberals could just about hope to maintain their 14 seats, or fall one short; Labor would likely be up one to 11; the Greens could win five six, depending on whether the Liberals get 14 or 13; there would be five independents, up from three; and the Nationals would fail in their bid to account for three seats currently held by the Jacqui Lambie Network. YouGov suggests it’s Labor that could get to 14, reducing the Liberals to 12, the Greens to five and independents to four. To summarise:

Bass. Both polls, though especially YouGov, had an independent vote high enough to suggest that former Jacqui Lambie Network member Rebekah Pentland has some hope of retaining her seat as an independent. Whereas DemosAU suggests this would be in the context of a status quo result (three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens plus Pentland), the YouGov poll, both in terms of its small-sample breakdown and its general thrust, suggests Labor has some hope of taking a seat off the Liberals. The DemosAU poll suggests a second seat for the Greens would in fact be more likely than a third for Labor.

Braddon. Both polls suggest the issue is what will become of the seat won in 2024 by the Jacqui Lambie Network, with DemosAU finding little encouragement for the Nationals in their bid to fill the gap. DemosAU suggests it will come down to a race between a fourth Liberal and a seat for the presently unrepresented Greens, while YouGov’s breakdown suggests a third seat for Labor. Both are encouraging for independent incumbent Craig Garland.

Clark. DemosAU’s 27.5% independent result, which almost matches YouGov’s 30%, suggests incumbent Kristie Johnston will be joined by former senior Liberal Elise Archer, although a lot depends on how it breaks down. With the Liberals over two quotas and Labor and the Greens not far off, the result suggests an independent could poll relatively strongly but still fall short – a status quo result.

Franklin. DemosAU has an extraordinary 35.4% for independents, which suggests that Peter George’s ticket will perform very strongly without depriving independent incumbent David O’Byrne, or win a second seat if it does. The remainder would have Liberal down from three to two, and Labor and the Greens unchanged on two and one. Conversely, the YouGov numbers suggest a third seat for Labor at the expense of a second independent.

Lyons. Here the DemosAU result allows for an independent only if one out of the seven ungrouped contenders dominates the others. Otherwise it looks more like three each for Liberal and Labor (a gain of one in Labor’s case) and one for the Greens. YouGov’s numbers suggest an independent win to be more likely without offering clarity as to whether Liberal or Labor would be reduced to two seats.