Tasmanian election aftermath: no confidence motion and EMRS poll

Barring a late reversal, the saga of the Tasmanian election seems set to conclude with the Liberals clinging to power.

The Tasmanian state election finally arrives at its moment of truth with the return of state parliament from 10am today, at which Labor’s constructive vote of no confidence will be voted on. With the Greens announcing yesterday that they will not support the motion, it appears the vote will confirm the Liberals in government. The two between them command 19 votes out of 35, to which can be added independents David O’Byrne and Kristie Johnston. A Liberal promise to halt aquaculture expansions pending an independent review, which was slammed by Labor, even won positive noises from Craig Garland and Peter George. Only Carlo Di Falco of Shooters Fishers and Farmers, who has proclaimed the Liberals’ proposed ban on greyhound racing a “line in the sand”, would appear to be firmly in Labor’s corner. Labor has enlisted an upper house independent, Ruth Forrest, to serve as Treasurer in Dean Winter’s prospective government, but this doesn’t yield any advantage in the confidence motion – and may indeed have harmed it, given O’Byrne cited it as evidence that Labor could not offer stable government.

Meanwhile, a poll conducted Tuesday to Thursday by EMRS from a small sample of 503 finds 35% in favour of a no confidence motion and 49% opposed. It records 74% support for the Liberals’ greyhound phase-out, with 14% opposed, and 61% supporting its abandonment of opening 40,000 hectares of native forest for harvesting, with 24% opposed. A preferred treasurer question has Ruth Forrest on 40% and Labor’s former Shadow Treasurer Josh Willie on 10%, while for the Liberals current and former Treasurers Eric Abetz and Guy Barnett score 25% and 15% respectively.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

364 comments on “Tasmanian election aftermath: no confidence motion and EMRS poll”

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  2. “They just can’t bang the rocks together” is a steal from Douglas Adams. I use the metaphor frequently.

    “We’ll be saying a big hello to all intelligent lifeforms everywhere and to everyone else out there, the secret is to bang the rocks together, guys.“

  5. Thanks Pegasus. Nothing in there suggests a radical change from Winter’s approach but he does sound naturally more collaborative.

    Just a thought about the leadership and why Haddad didn’t get up-who would have been her deputy? Presumably you would need a male from a different electorate which only left Broad, Winter himself and the newly elected Mitchell. All pretty lacklustre options but I guess Broad would have been the only logical choice.

  14. https://pulsetasmania.com.au/news/opposition-warns-of-pain-ahead-as-interim-state-budget-revealed/

    Thinking it through the Nov 2025 Interim Tasmanian Budget isn’t that hard to characterise. Bob Hawke/ PJK era reasons to act (even an island off the mainland at the arse of the world) seem to rhyme with banana republic.
    May be micro-economic reform.
    More trade, diplomacy, Zeitgeist of BRICS, non-aligned, no longer allies and partners and friends, living in uncertain times.
    Murmurs about leadership, values or principles come down to funded and unfunded choices. … there was pre-election Tasmanian State Treasury advice, unfiltered. Picked advisors reports.
    Not a lot on addressing the 1/ 5 that seem to skip meals.
    Maybe unpolished trickle down.
    More socialising the losses and privatising the profits?
    Asset recycling including GBEs seems inevitable. I suppose today’s Commonwealth Bank, Jetstar resprayed …
    And some cash will go to paying down debt.
    Spending by a larger parliament seems to be paid for through a smaller public service (more tail, fewer teeth, just ask that warfighter with a make up studio over at the Pentagon DC), as a wealth tax, GST rearranging, if not speed cameras for your safety, food integrity licensing fees coming to farmers’ markets, seem to take a back seat to propping up salmon farming, traditional heavy manufacturing (paper mill, smelter), even transporting electrons to the mainland supposedly without any impact.
    With the water coming over the dyke the state government returned in minority – and still smarting from that, without it translating into promises on salient issues – because voters want opposition and crossbenchers involved – seem intent on calling in the decorators, rather than regret not thinking ahead on infrastructure and are not calling emergency management services for sand bags.
    Let alone reconsidering outdated baby boomer era outlooks, uncle Erich, well he’s not for turning. The only question is how many Gen Z futures will roll to prop up his chair.
    It is yet more New Holland Disease, focused on blowing up humanity, clearing land and climate disruption resources.
    A white trash of Asia quarry to red/ mainland/ PR of China. RSN Hobart International Airport, that is seasonal Auckland flights, will see augmentation from non-stop Singaporean and China flights. Apparently exports and tourists.
    The choices unarticulated seem to come down to chop it down, may be dam it, dig it up and ship it out.
    However it seems unlikely the produce and experiences will benefit from destruction or pollution.
    Neither will the state brand be enhanced. Especially since even FewFacts has raised defaulting or a Versailles on Lake Bloody Griffin orchestrated bail out?
    Unlike through holistic, regional, sustainable development including value added manufacturing, services, knowledge and experiences.
    Perhaps the MPDC and stadium being touted really is so visionary it will be constantly bursting with entertainment (where in Oceania did Tay Tay play during her world tour) and games, though other such projects on the smaller islands of Japan, with many more transport links, and populations many times Australia’s nearby, have been unable to deliver on envisaged outcomes (the usual rule of thumb on the use of public money in this case seems to be divide the benefits touted by three and times the costs grudgingly leaked by three).
    Even mainland relocations like wineries transplanted – because climate disruption isn’t real – needing comms/ energy/ housing/ transport/ water infrastructure.
    An educated workforce. (Plenty of projects including for those completing year 12 in secondary, even tertiary education.)
    Government services.
    Plenty of opportunities, including sorting the cost of living, public safety (catamarans/ littoral corvettes up the Derwent – learn from Ukraine – and autonomous boats instead of $$Ns) and national security (apparently gun ownership in Tasmania is high, knowing how to shoot straight could well be useful), despite the PLA-N actual circumnavigation one PM+ imagined re-enacting.

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