The Tasmanian state election finally arrives at its moment of truth with the return of state parliament from 10am today, at which Labor’s constructive vote of no confidence will be voted on. With the Greens announcing yesterday that they will not support the motion, it appears the vote will confirm the Liberals in government. The two between them command 19 votes out of 35, to which can be added independents David O’Byrne and Kristie Johnston. A Liberal promise to halt aquaculture expansions pending an independent review, which was slammed by Labor, even won positive noises from Craig Garland and Peter George. Only Carlo Di Falco of Shooters Fishers and Farmers, who has proclaimed the Liberals’ proposed ban on greyhound racing a “line in the sand”, would appear to be firmly in Labor’s corner. Labor has enlisted an upper house independent, Ruth Forrest, to serve as Treasurer in Dean Winter’s prospective government, but this doesn’t yield any advantage in the confidence motion – and may indeed have harmed it, given O’Byrne cited it as evidence that Labor could not offer stable government.
Meanwhile, a poll conducted Tuesday to Thursday by EMRS from a small sample of 503 finds 35% in favour of a no confidence motion and 49% opposed. It records 74% support for the Liberals’ greyhound phase-out, with 14% opposed, and 61% supporting its abandonment of opening 40,000 hectares of native forest for harvesting, with 24% opposed. A preferred treasurer question has Ruth Forrest on 40% and Labor’s former Shadow Treasurer Josh Willie on 10%, while for the Liberals current and former Treasurers Eric Abetz and Guy Barnett score 25% and 15% respectively.
GFY2 – I would have thought a potential broken bone is something that would have been advised to go directly to hospital for. I hope that GP didn’t charge you too much for doing little more than writing a referral.
I can confidently say, it was Labor’s fault.
“I can confidently say, it was Labor’s fault.”
Dean Winter pushed over GFY2?
GoW, I know for a fact that Winter ignored the advice from several of his paid advisors not to pull the trigger on the NCM. The type of people a political leader surrounds himself with to give frank and fearless advice, who have a view on the impact of a pathway that isnt clouded by personal ambition or clouded perspectives (and that is being kind).
After the events of the past 2-3 months I don’t think Labor will be moving a NCM anytime soon. Indeed the new leader may make this a virtue as a sign that Labor won’t repeat the events of the past few months.
But it also means IMO a mid-term change of government is unlikely.
However it also means the crossbench can’t bring down the Liberal Govt if they can’t see progress on the issues important to them, reducing their leverage.
Conversely if the Libs feel trapped by the crossbench and Labor is unwilling to help, their only means of escape will be calling another election which will be viewed poorly by the electorate. It would be a path they would be reluctant to take.
The last two points are a recipe for instability going forward.
Mostly Interested: the pre-election or post-election NCM?
Rebecca @ #306 Wednesday, August 20th, 2025 – 9:04 pm
Pre-election
Sorry Ghost, but the continued mention of a “Purple Alliance” is really highlighting how daft you are. Do you realise the colour purple is made up of red and blue? Green and blue = teal or aqua. Can you at least get the colour right?
Just some simple colour mixing theory from grade 1 for you 🙂
Hitherto undiagnosed GDS has mortally wounded a few posters. They have lost all perspective.
The Tasmanian parliamentary ALP humiliated themselves with their dog catches car no confidence motion some months ago. They then ran a campaign almost as inefficient as Temu Trump did federally.
They then stuffed up the post election negotiations.
Clearly all the fault of the Greens.
Hint: Labor hubristically forced an election, and lost it. They got 10 seats. 10! Time for some introspection. 2pp of 63% in May. 10 seats in August. It couldn’t be their own fault, could it?
This was a monumental disaster for Tasmania. I am unimpressed.
The other symptom of GDS is a very selective memory when it comes to Labor and Liberal teaming up to vote for dodgy laws.
That kind of collaboration is fine, but hell hath no fury if anyone else dares team up with your enemy.
Mabwn,
That’s a bit harsh, judging the new fiddlesticks government so early into their term.
TropicalWonderland,
Good luck with your new found collaboration!
Best of luck to the new fiddlesticks alliance now tasked with the enormity of rectifying the dog’s breakfast left behind by the previous Liberals+government and its leader Rockliff.
The anti Winter/Labor brigade have a opportunity to deal with the fiasco ridden Liberal mess.
Good luck to the Greens, red inside or not, the assortment of Independents and the Tasmanian voters in the coming term.
Things can only improve , can’t they?
@goll,
How long will the Tassie Libs be able to soldier on?
I reckon they’ll have another election within 18 months.
And the punters will return the same balance of seats. 14/10/5/5/1. Who knows what the 1 will be!
“Sorry Ghost, but the continued mention of a “Purple Alliance” is really highlighting how daft you are. Do you realise the colour purple is made up of red and blue? Green and blue = teal or aqua. Can you at least get the colour right? Just some simple colour mixing theory from grade 1 for you ”
In the RBG colour system mixer used in most digital formats, green and blue can absolutely form a close enough to purple colour.
“Good luck to the Greens, red inside or not, the assortment of Independents and the Tasmanian voters in the coming term.”
The Greens, Libs and Independents have finally got what they always wanted, Government without those pesky workers movement representatives.
I’m sure Tasmania will soon be the land of milk and honey with sunlit uplands and a bounty to share for every person in the state. The debt will be gone, the ferries will run on time and everyone but those awful Laborites will celebrate the new AFL team and the state will be the envy of Australia, if not the entire world.
When it gets all silly, you know that posters have lost the argument (that they didn’t believe in anyway).
I suppose it does still make a change from the ‘open threads’ – normally that’s Labor vs. Green fights (and woe betide anyone with leanings further to the right straying onto there. . .), but the Tassie thread makes a change as it’s Labor vs. Labor fights: that is, Labor realists vs. diehard Labor apologists – with a scattering of Greens and others sticking their oar in (mea culpa).
I think Tasmanian Labor qualifies as the worst opposition in the country simply because if they weren’t so stubborn they could be the government
None of the other duds are in that position
Ok, now it’s been confirmed in the Mercury, and KB also mentioned it, I was aware the PLP vote went 9:4 to Winter. But he was convinced not to face a member ballot which he would have lost in a landslide.
Sorry for the long link, its gifted and from FB
https://www.themercury.com.au/news/politics/tas-labor-leadership-spill-josh-willie-emerges-as-likely-challenger/news-story/b6aa3e4da81e7983163def57a9a9aefb?fbclid=IwY2xjawMTJ_1leHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETF5OURZWDlCdjVqMG11bEJXAR5sVSeHtPdU9YAIopUp6gU29EqbVT5epfLNHZuHNJpkUASzvx8VMy5kMe4vew_aem_HpqN4l0lpoyG0gHvxpCTCQ&giftid=FmoIIwL95W
Hard Being Green: I think that’s being a little harsh to Tasmanian Labor. Not even they can come even close to Alex Antic’s SA Liberals getting about 33% of the 2PP (not primary) in recent polls.
The latest two Tasmanian elections were very good elections not to win.
The Rockliff Liberal government, the cause of much of the political malady in Australia’s smallest state has won both of the last two elections and now with the assistance of the Greens and some independents has the opportunity to rectify the division, fiscal ineptitude and distaste for all things political it has created.
The “pile on” regarding Dean Winter and Labor will be stretched for a while yet however a reality will eventually emerge from the Rockliff mist.
It could be argued that Dean Winter was the only one to maintain a political position during the entire democratic process.
The Independents have shown their “colours”, voting for a no confidence motion, and then surrending to the “confidence less” Rockliff, to become part of the government.
The Greens have reacted as Greens do, meekly surrendering their long held and loudly proclaimed positions and deciding to hold hands with their most ardent political opponent.
Where this embryonic new political lifeform ends up has the makings of a blockbuster soap opera of epic proportions.
The image of Eric directing the bulldozers in the direction of St Bob’s Greens tieing themselves to old growth forests is a must see.
The possibilities are endless.
You never know, it might all work out.
Dean Winter will in all likelihood enjoy it all from afar as the one billion dollar stadium (actually 3.5 billion on opening) is completed some time in the next decade, the Devils having been established, playing reasonably well at a mixture of currently used venues across
Tasmania and the tourist continuing to visit Tasmania for entirely different reasons.
The Salmon will long ago have departed to the high seas and less controversy.
The Marinus link will become the albatross it always appeared to be and the ferries used as temporary classrooms.
Someone will need to be contracted to act for the government to sort the fiscal calamity, the hospitals and schools will be in a state of being heritage listed, while the roads a nostalgic novelty.
Australia, the lucky country will continue to bail out Tasmania if for no other reason than to prevent the Chinese from gaining a foothold with numerous offers of infrastructure assistance and job offers that will mysteriously create.
The next three years will keep the Tasmanian press busy continuing to blame Dean Winter for all the woes.
“The Greens have reacted as Greens do, meekly surrendering their long held and loudly proclaimed positions and deciding to hold hands with their most ardent political opponent.”
That’s strange, I could’ve sworn the Greens were intransigents who always let the perfect be the enemy of the good. I’m certain I read that somewhere. Can’t remember where.
Maybe I just imagined it.
Cognitive polyphasia is a real thing.
https://x.com/gunnertas/status/1946758406087528824, contrast between federal and state elections …
Schrodingers green party
In a superposition of “too principled and wont conpromise to help labor”
And
“Will sell out at the firsr opportunity”
Depending on what the Labor rightist needs it to be at the time.
And it is unbelievable that the Richardson ‘whatever it takes’ spirit has left Labor.
You get into government then betray the Greens later if needed.
The ‘sit this one out’ claim is a convenient lie. There are always things to do in government and circumstances may improve, which is why Rockcliff is taking that chance.
Nobody should be surprised to see Labor making such a courageous stand on principle.
After all, you can’t change anything from opposition, so sometimes you just have to… err… never mind.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-21/jeremy-rockliff-outlines-tasmanian-liberals-first-actions/105676256 …
They suffer from a vivid imagination as well!
A bit of an essay, sorry.
What the likes of goll and Ghost of Whitlam don’t get (and Boerwar does get, but he likes to troll as if he didn’t get it, as is his wont) is that, in Tasmania, the Libs and Greens are not necessarily arch-enemies, although they certainly have been at times.
Since the 1981 knifing of Premier Doug Lowe, who adopted a soft pro-environment stance comparable to that of the ALP across the rest of the country, Tassie Labor has mostly been at least as anti-environmental as the Libs. But the situation has fluctuated over time. Under Robin Gray in the 1980s, the Libs were far more committed than Labor to destroying wilderness areas. In 1989-1992 Labor under Michael Field was prepared to strike a deal with the “Green independents” (as they then called themselves) and some good things were done for a while, until Labor decided that it would be to their electoral advantage to break with the Greens.
Then, in the mid-1990s, Liberal leader Tony Rundle found some common ground with the Greens. It wasn’t a total disaster for the Libs, but the rising influence within the party of Uncle Eric and his pro-logging mates in Launceston (especially the McQuestin family, which remains powerful) took the Libs out of the picture for a couple of decades until the failure of the proposed pulp mill on the Tamar and the liquidation of Gunns in 2013 put a huge dent in the forestry industry and gave more strength to other voices within the Liberals which had seen clear fell logging as damaging to their brands (eg, the tourism and real estate sectors).
It is worth noting that, while Robin Gray did well with his strongly anti-environmental stance in the 1980s, the party was far less successful with the renaissance of that stance during the 1990s, remaining in opposition from 1998-2014 (although, of course, it did help the Federal Liberals in Tassie seats in the 2004 election). Since then, Hodgman, Gutwein and Rockliff – all of whom are slightly green-tinged (at least for Liberals) – have done pretty much all they can to keep a lid on the forestry wars, which seems to have been beneficial for them and also for other parts of the economy (including, for a while, salmon farming).
While the Libs were out of government between 1998 and 2014, Labor was also for the most part strongly pro-logging, especially under Paul Lennon. But, in 2010-2014 David Bartlett and Lara Giddings were somewhat reluctantly prepared to work with the Greens, even giving them some ministries. I still think that, despite the belief of most Laborites down here, the Bartlett and Giddings governments went pretty well and that their demise had more to do with things like an overall sense among the voters that it was time for a change, along with declining economic circumstances. Of course the collapse of Gunns didn’t help in the north, and might well have been perceived by some voters as being somehow associated with the presence of Greens in the Cabinet, although it was actually mostly due to mismanagement (and worse) by the company’s leadership.
In 2018, Rebecca White ran a Labor campaign that was probably a little more Greens-friendly that most in recent decades, including promising to do something about the pokies. Since then, Labor has reverted to its Lennon-era approach to environmentally damaging industries.
So what is the choice for the Tassie Greens (and similarly minded indies like Garland and George)? A Liberal Party that is still intrinsically supportive of environmentally-damaging industries but, when push comes to shove, isn’t truly as committed to them as Labor is because, they correctly perceive that these industries are almost certain to decline in relative economic significance over time.
However, from Labor’s perspective, the unionised workers in these declining industries remain a key part of their core base. And they seem to have no interest whatsoever in dealing with the Greens. So why wouldn’t the Greens and greenish indies be inclined to make a very lukewarm arrangement the Libs, as they have done?
A further consideration is stability. If Labor had been prepared to move somewhat towards the Greens, one can envisage a block forming that would 10 Labor plus 5 Greens plus George and Garland. But where would the 18th vote on the floor of the house have come from?
Would O’Byrne support Labor? I would imagine he might well ask to be allowed to rejoin the party and be given a ministry, which would be seriously disruptive.
Would Johnston? Quite possibly but, as we have seen, I don’t think her ongoing support can ever be relied upon.
Di Falco? He’d presumably want things that might worsen Labor’s appeal to the tree-hugging voters who have been deserting Labor in droves since 2014.
And how about Razay? Who knows?
As you can see, a Labor Government would quite possibly be even less stable than the Rockliff Government of 2024, and we all saw how that went.
On the other hand, the Greens alone are capable of preventing a successful motion of no confidence against the Libs. That gives them a certain amount of power, which they will I hope they will use very judiciously.
Folks, what the Greens and the greenish indies have just done is what is known as “strategy”: a word that I’m not sure is in the vocabulary of Tassie Labor at the moment. Good on them. As I have posted before, I have no time for the Greens’ policies in regard to the economy, border protection or international relations. But, when it comes to protecting wild areas and native flora and fauna, they are on the side of the angels.
Mostly Interestedsays:
Thursday, August 21, 2025 at 9:37 am
And it variations compounded to suit!
Corleonesays:
Thursday, August 21, 2025 at 9:38 am
And
Many a Labor supporter would be enjoying the spectacle of the Liberal/Green Coalition in place presently in Tasmania and forming wry smiles at the serendipity it evokes.
I’m looked ng forward to the “strategy” as this new coalition unrolls itself if and when it tackles the multitude of Liberal conceived hurdles that need to be attended to.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Tasmanian_government_formation …
There’s no “Lib-Greens coalition” in Tasmania at the moment.
There’s not even confidence and supply.
At this point, there’s not even evidence of a “lukewarm arrangement” as referred to above, though that may become evident or emerge.
There is, however, a “Greens-Indy-SFF” coalition against an unfit and unprepared Labor government taking office – they just voted against it. As is known from everything most of them said, the first part of the motion declaring ‘no confidence’ in Rockliff was simply an inconvenience with regarding declaring confidence in Dean Winter, that they confidently ignored in spite of Labor’s games in designing the motion this way and twisting it to dominate the narrative in the (seemingly pliant) media.
Labor have perhaps succeeded in what they intended to do, though there was enough backlash either from the electorate as a whole, or the Labor members, that they felt they had to move against Winter himself.
It is correct what is said above, that Labor didn’t have the courage to seriously aim for government knowing that very hard decisions would need to be made in such a time of budgetary constraint that might send them down the plug hole.
Meanwhile, Rockliff has risen to the challenge of trying to get the square peg into the round hole – I am sure he could have got himself a more comfortable retirement instead. But he actually looked and acted like he was willing and able to get into government in spite of the challenges and did what he needed to accordingly.
Sure he was perhaps looking to protect / build his political legacy, this is politics after all. But it still took a certain amount of courage.
EDIT: I await the next sarcastic reply.
No sarcasm this time, BTSays.
Rockliff at least had the brains to sound* conciliatory towards those who held the fate of his government in their hands. It’s probably a load of cods of course, but it’s more than his opposite number was prepared to do.
* The word ‘sound’ would be in italics if I could remember how to post in italics.
BTSayssays:
Thursday, August 21, 2025 at 3:20 pm
It’s okay , everyone understands the sense of embarrassment it would be for the Greens and Independents, to firstly vote against the Liberals and Rockliff at the no confidence motion, then change to the blue, green and sometimes red stripes of the Independents, to be seen as a purplish hue, all sharing the Liberals pyjamas.
meher baba
‘…Folks, what the Greens and the greenish indies have just done is what is known as “strategy”:…’
=====================
This is hilarious when you use it against the reality test.
The Greens strategy is to give moral support to a government and to get nothing in return for that moral support. So, The Greens manage to get the moral approbrium for supporting the Liberals and tfor any trashing that the Liberals do and fair enough too. The Greens strategy to pretend they can have it both ways will not cut it. They supported the Liberals. They wear the consequences of a Liberal Government. Apart from that the Greens get nothing from the Liberals. I mean nothing. Zero. De nada. Zip. Genius ‘strategy’.
The ‘greenish indies’ (LOL) get the dogs to go round until 2029 – after the next election! They get a review of the salmon with nothing in the bag after that. And they get a temporary delay in the expansion of the forestry extraction. Oh. And they get the stadium that they so thoroughly detest. Apart from all that nothing, they get some more nothing. Genius ‘strategy’.
Rockcliff must be pissing himself laughing.
There must be something about ‘strategy’ in Tasmania that only a Tasmanian genius can understand.
Quite impressed watching Josh Willie’s first news conference as Opposition Leader, a huge improvement on Dean Winter.
As for the Greens – they’ll soon work out that Rockcliff has dudded them.
Eric Abetz stated something about a number of strategies available to repair the fiscal foibles remaining from years of Liberal incompetence while the Liberals were in government.
Will the Liberals reach out to the Greens and Independents to make these repairs?
Foible Isle.
“They supported the Liberals.”
No they didn’t. Continuing to lie about it won’t suddenly make it true.
I repeat:
“There is, however, a “Greens-Indy-SFF” coalition against an unfit and unprepared Labor government taking office – they just voted against it. As is known from everything most of them said, the first part of the motion declaring ‘no confidence’ in Rockliff was simply an inconvenience with regarding declaring confidence in Dean Winter, that they confidently ignored in spite of Labor’s games in designing the motion this way . . .”
And nobody has any evidence to the contrary, that actually they were POSITIVELY (or even tacitly, tbh) supporting the Liberals. Labor played games to wedge the crossbench, and they were seen through and lost because of the very reason that the threat of being accused of siding with the Liberals didn’t wash with them.
Whatever else those crossbenchers are or aren’t – and goodness knows there’s not much I’d agree with most of them on – they had enough self-confidence in their position not to take Labor’s snarky bait, knowing that it was palpably false in their case that they were supporting the Libs.
Ante Meridian:
Normal text – (i) stuff in italics (/i) – back to normal text.
Swap the round brackets for angle brackets, and you’re in business. 😉
Very good BoP. Thanks.
“Will the Liberals reach out to the Greens and Independents to make these repairs?”
What happens when the Libs decide to slash public service, environmental programs and various other things the Greens like to pay for the stadium, and then threaten the Greens to vote for it or risk another election.
And if Labor smartly abstains and refuses to get involved, saying it’s a matter for the Purple Alliance to decide, and that they don’t want another election so quickly, then what for the Greens?
The Tasmanian Liberals have enticed the Greens and Independents into a game of “fiddlesticks”.
Every move sort out by either the Greens or the potpourri of independents will be responded to by the Liberals giving them a chance to pick up another stick and risk bringing the purple coalition down in a crumbling mess.
The Liberal aligned media will have a picnic with the Greens and Independents.
The Liberals will delay every attempt to implement any legislation not within their frame of reference.
The Liberals will spend the entire term of government threatening to collapse the Tasmanian political alliance, positioned so close to the edge, the sole purpose being to control Tasmanian government.
The pro greyhound racing independent was the first to experience the precarious footing for the Greens and Independents.
Winter will be proven correct with every maneuver by non Liberal members of the purple coalition.
The Greens and Independents will become “blue in the face” and the Liberals will be all cackling in the Rockliff and Abetz’ domains.
Talk about getting into bed with the enemy. The Liberals created the “mayhem” and the Greens and Independents have raised their “collective” hands and accepted ownership of the the Liberal political and fiscal calamity.
The celebrations in the suite at Salamanca Place are in “full swing” in readiness for the game of “fiddlesticks”!
The Tasmanian Labor section in my Australia’s Worst Opposition article may be helpful to those who are baffled as to why the crossbench would – unanimously – keep a Liberal government in power rather than hand them the keys.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/08/not-poll-australias-worst-opposition.html
Re post by Ghost of Whitlam above – Labor is not going to block Supply; they have a cultural objection to doing so because of what happened to some chap fifty years ago … can’t quite remember his name … I think it starts with W? That’s partly why we’re here, because the most targeted approach to Guy Barnett’s abandoned Budget would have been to block the thing itself or move no-confidence in him, instead of targeting Rockliff. Once they targeted Rockliff it looked like a student politics plot to force the Liberals to replace Rockliff with somebody more beatable. There was a damaging leaked text by a staffer that suggested this was in fact what it was.
Thank you very much Dr Bonham.
You have surpassed even good old goll in funny expression and skewering.
It may be some time before AI gets up to speed with how little a pifteenth is. It seems as small as the chance that the stadium will not cost too much.
Does your ordering of chronic failures known as HM Oppositions imply that Tassie Labor is on track for silver, more chronic at failing even than the Victorian, WA and SA Liberals?
Surely the gap between the primary votes at comparable federal and state elections would be relevant evidence. Or the gap between the proportion of seats held at federal and state levels.
Federally Labor went up by 9.3% in May, and down 3% statewide in July.
On that metric Tassie Labor could lay claim to gold in the worst Opposition contest, because the ACT Liberals have lost two Senate elections running.
Whine whine whine…they didn’t back us despite our (Willie continued) refusal to accept the result of the election and work out a way to govern together.
Hard to work out who is more pathetic – the majority of the elected members of the party who wanted Winter to stick around after their worst election result, ever. Or the Labor diehards on PB who think that blaming the Greens political party, Independents or anyone else is going to help get their party, and the state, out of the massive hole they helped dig.
If more of Dean Winter (or Dean Winter lite) is the answer, then you are definitely asking all the wrong questions.
Kevin,
What a wonderful description!
Dear Tropical,
Please explain again how you see this coalition of “anyone but Labor” are going to manage the rather extensive list of issues that need addressing, the leftover flotsam from all these years of Liberal fiscal ineptitude.
I’ll remain in “the quarry”, banging rocks together while this Coalition rennaissance progresses and look forward to apologizing after this Tasmanian parliamentary term expires and my comments are proven to be off the mark.
Let the “fiddlesticks” begin!