The Tasmanian state election finally arrives at its moment of truth with the return of state parliament from 10am today, at which Labor’s constructive vote of no confidence will be voted on. With the Greens announcing yesterday that they will not support the motion, it appears the vote will confirm the Liberals in government. The two between them command 19 votes out of 35, to which can be added independents David O’Byrne and Kristie Johnston. A Liberal promise to halt aquaculture expansions pending an independent review, which was slammed by Labor, even won positive noises from Craig Garland and Peter George. Only Carlo Di Falco of Shooters Fishers and Farmers, who has proclaimed the Liberals’ proposed ban on greyhound racing a “line in the sand”, would appear to be firmly in Labor’s corner. Labor has enlisted an upper house independent, Ruth Forrest, to serve as Treasurer in Dean Winter’s prospective government, but this doesn’t yield any advantage in the confidence motion – and may indeed have harmed it, given O’Byrne cited it as evidence that Labor could not offer stable government.
Meanwhile, a poll conducted Tuesday to Thursday by EMRS from a small sample of 503 finds 35% in favour of a no confidence motion and 49% opposed. It records 74% support for the Liberals’ greyhound phase-out, with 14% opposed, and 61% supporting its abandonment of opening 40,000 hectares of native forest for harvesting, with 24% opposed. A preferred treasurer question has Ruth Forrest on 40% and Labor’s former Shadow Treasurer Josh Willie on 10%, while for the Liberals current and former Treasurers Eric Abetz and Guy Barnett score 25% and 15% respectively.
The new “purple coalition” (the Liberal Greens) will provide an exciting political “stadium” for Tasmania’s future.
Good luck everyone!
And from the front page of the Tasmanian Advocate:-
Good luck Tasmania!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-19/tasmanian-parliament-sitting-no-confidence-explained/105662634 …
Winter is not here!
He is not there either.Winter is not coming he’s in nowhere land looking at two terms in opposition if they do not hatchet this loser.
Dragged people to the polls for nothing due to his impatience.Could have won gov outright if he had waited.
Managed to bring Greens closer to libs that’s a big achievement!
The dogs are being phased out by 2029 (oh yeaaaah)… a couple of ‘reviews’… salmon farming is booming… forestry, BAU… the stadium is going ahead… cuts to public services and the public service.
Go you good Greens!
Training day at work for me so I’ll miss the fun unfortunately
Will Winter even bother with the no-confidence motion given it has no chance of getting up? I guess it will have some symbolic significance Labor will try and take advantage of down the track
OR
Will there be a shock development with Labor rolling Winter before Parliament sits?
Dare to dream
All the best with your new minority Liberal Government Tassie, delivered by Labor’s stubbornness
Enjoy the day Folks
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-19/analysis-tasmanian-labor-stubbornness-to-cost-them-power/105669186 ….
The sour grapes displayed by some of the Labor luvvies on PB at them moment are rather pitiful.
There was clearly a pathway for Labor to make a deal with the crossbench, and Labor made a resolute decision not to travel down that pathway. That’s because they weren’t prepared to make even small compromises on certain key “principles” that even the Liberals appear to have been willing to do relatively minimal deals on:
– environmentally-unfriendly industries;
– an unnecessary and unaffordable stadium that will only make the existing hole in the budget even worse; and
– the continuing cruelty of greyhound racing.
You people should rally behind your party with pride. I’ve got a few sample slogans for you:
“Death to the noxious Maugean skate!”
“Logging jobs, not forest animals!”
“Corporate boxes at the footy ahead of cancer treatment and cardiac care!”
“Let’s not just keep greyhound racing, we need to bring back bear-baiting as well!”
Isn’t this the sort of stuff that made you join the ALP in the first place? Come one, show some support for your team!
Yes, and the Liberals suck just as badly. But at least they seem to be prepared to sit down at a table and talk to a group of crossbenchers who now collectively represent a significantly larger share of the Tasmanian population than your stupid party does.
The sad fact for Labor is that, election after election, they run with pretty much the same policies as the Libs. And the electorate keeps telling them: “On the whole, we prefer those policies, but we also prefer to have the Liberals implement them.” So can somebody explain to me how that approach is ever going to work for Labor?
Oh, sorry, I forgot. It’s all entirely the fault of the Greens.
One for the ages. Labor refusing to take power, prefering the Liberals.
Green get meagre pickings, but, it’s better than nothing.
New election coming sometime in the next 18 months?
Come on MB, the membership are white hot angry with the parliamentary party. Much of that doesn’t play out on this forum.
Just try to imagine the “negotiations” between Labor and the Greens and the environmentally-focused indies.
Crossbenchers: “We need concessions on salmon farming and forestry.”
Winter: “Nope. I can’t move an inch on those issues. But you will have to support me because I’m going to repair the hole in the budget.”
Crossbenchers: “Oh, great! That means that you must be seriously considering dropping the stadium.”
Winter “No way. That’s non-negotiable. We’ve got a much better plan. We’re going to increase taxes and make unpopular cuts to health, education and public works. But here’s the really good part. We’re going to make Ruth Forrest Treasurer so that the voters think it’s all her fault rather than ours. That will reduce the appeal of independents in general so that in the next election we’ll get a swing towards us from you lot.
And eventually we can get back to majority government and then we can go back to the good old days of cutting down the forests in every wilderness area and then flood them all. Lots of renewable energy and, better still, lots of highly-paid unionised jobs. What’s not to like with that scenario?”
The worst thing about that little satire is that it does actually reflect the true wishes of some of the people who drive Tassie Labor’s policy positions.
It’s not the economy, stupid. It’s not incompetence, stupid. It’s something else.
MI: “Come on MB, the membership are white hot angry with the parliamentary party. Much of that doesn’t play out on this forum.”
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Some of them certainly are. But, as I’ve posted before, they might do well to look a fair way further north for the people who are acutally behind this. Let’s name it up, how would Albo have reacted if Winter had agreed to a review of the salmon-farming industry?
It went the other way. Tas Labor put pressure on the feds to get something to throw to the blue collar base. But forgot the greenish part of their base (because Tas Labor lack political smarts of a uni union)
Labor’s insistence before the election that they would govern alone or not at all was supposed to send voters flocking back to them in search of stability. Instead it reinforced the view that Labor had no chance of forming government and triggered a bandwagon effect for the Liberals.
An ignorant observer such as myself might think there’s a lesson in that, but I’m sure the strategists in the Labor party see it differently.
Dean Winter appears to have acted right out of the Albo playbook…Relying on positive environmental reforms the ALP made in the 1980’s to argue trust us we will do the right thing, whilst refusing to budge on coal, carbon, salmon, EPA, greyhounds, gas etc etc
I do wonder if this outcomes presages a similar arrangement when the Labor numbers federally inevitably fall back to the recent mean. (Although the Libs and Nats continue doing their best to stay as far away from government as humanely possible)
As the the Labor faithful in Tasmania being white hot with anger – are they all shouting down a well? Or into the wind?
And, for all those who maligned the Tasmanian voters and their bad choices, the ability to distinguish between Fed and State party offerings does tend to suggest that the average voter down here is cleverer than the average PB poster.
I wonder how many Greens voters down here are going to be pissed off with the backing of Rockliff and his wreckers?
TW, outsiders perhaps dont realise, but modern political parties do their best to ignore their membership. That’s not just a Labor trait.
goll says:
Tuesday, August 19, 2025 at 5:39 am
The new “purple coalition” (the Liberal Greens) will provide an exciting political “stadium” for Tasmania’s future.
Good luck everyone!
=======================
Yes, I suspect the term G.L.N.P will get a run again on this site.
24 minutes to go.
The photo’s in this arvo’s newspapers of the Greens & Libs standing together in Parliament will be priceless, that is if they allow camera’s into the Legislative Assembly.
TropicalWonderland says:
Tuesday, August 19, 2025 at 9:30 am
…..
And, for all those who maligned the Tasmanian voters and their bad choices, the ability to distinguish between Fed and State party offerings does tend to suggest that the average voter down here is cleverer than the average PB poster.
============================
One rule I always follow is “the voters always get it right”.
Tasmanian’s are pretty cluey, as are the identified Tas based posters here.
Will be a fascinating term of Parliament.
Yeah – this is the inevitable outcome of this self-induced shitshow.
No – I don’t believe the voters ‘always get it right’ (way too high-minded) – but a result which reflected disappointment and frustration about this whole thing? This was definitely it.
Labor and my fellow Laborites need to understand – in the short-medium term, there is likely no path to government in HC jurisdictions without the Greens. Labor’s entire strategy seemed to be about making sure their own lovvies were satisfied…
Which, and yes to utterly repeat myself, just showed how catastrophically Labor shat the bed FROM THE OUTSET. They misjudged the NC motion, they didn’t seem prepared for an election, their policy offerings were bad to …fine with not much differentiation, then despite their vote going BACKWARDS they were in the position with a centre-left Assembly to form a government … and then refused to deal with most critical bloc to get from a position even pretending to be good-faith.
I’m no fan of the Greens party, but FFS live in reality.
Shit show – Winter should resign and anyone who advised him should quit.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/08/tasmania-2025-endgame-live.html
Tasmania 2025: The Endgame Live
Resumption of parliament today.
Peter George has just said nein as well, and Fontcast yesterday reckoned Di Falco would back down (be interesting to see if he does or not).
Labor need all of Di Falco, Razay, Garland for the claim that the Greens have put Liberals in government to fly.
MI: “It went the other way. Tas Labor put pressure on the feds to get something to throw to the blue collar base. But forgot the greenish part of their base (because Tas Labor lack political smarts of a uni union)”
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I hate to say it, but I don’t think that most of the greenish element of the Tasmanian population would consider itself to be part of the Labor “base” these days: perhaps some still at the national level, but certainly not at the state level.
I really can’t see much future in Labor’s attempting to appeal to blue collar workers. They are a declining breed, and – while they generally remain strong supporters of their unions – are increasingly inclined to vote Liberal. They are inclined to that point of view I mentioned earlier, that is, happy with Labor’s overall policy position, but inclined to prefer to see it implemented by the Libs.
As many tradies these days own investment properties, they are chary about voting for a party that they fear might implemented changes to negative gearing and CGT at the Federal level, and perhaps raise land taxes at the state level. So I think that, once they are lost to Labor, it’s very hard for the party to win them back.
And why bother? Over time, I think the demographic balance between the blue collar part of the electorate and the middle class greenish element is going to keep shifting towards the latter. The main thing Labor seems doing at either the national or state level these days to appeal to this group is to support large investments in renewables. Which – surprise, surprise – deliver more unionised jobs. Labor no longer seems to give much of a stuff about environmental protection or biodiversity, particularly when it gets in the way of major projects.
Is this attitude sustainable in the longer term? We’ll see.
Kevin B: “Labor need all of Di Falco, Razay, Garland for the claim that the Greens have put Liberals in government to fly.”
——————————————————————————-
Didn’t Razay say earlier that he would back whichever party was able to gain the confidence of the house. In that case, he’d now surely be quite likely to vote against the motion?
And, if by some chance Garland and Di Falco both decide to support the motion, we’d have a strange sort of “Schrodinger’s cat” scenario in which the Greens were both responsible and not responsible for keeping the Libs in government.
That is, because it was the Greens’ decision that they would oppose the motion that made it inevitable that Rockliff would survive the vote of no confidence and thereby attracted Rozay’s support, but the actual vote on the floor would be 12-23, meaning that it would have been 17-18 if the Greens had supported it, so their votes didn’t end up mattering in a mathematical sense.
The machinations of the biggest town council in Australia, eh?
Pretty damning for Winter that he couldn’t beat the mob that couldn’t even organise a berth for the expensive new ferries, is bankrupting the town, and features stone age culture warrior Eric Abetz. When does he walk the plank, and is there actually a better replacement in TasPol or do we need to ship them some talent from the mainland?
@Kevin – “Kevin B: “Labor need all of Di Falco, Razay, Garland for the claim that the Greens have put Liberals in government to fly.”
As meher noted, not really if there is a case that the Greens granting confidence to the Libs swings a vote or two. If the Greens grant confidence to the Libs they will ultimately wear that regardless of whether it strictly swung the vote or not, and should wear it as that’s their decision regardless of what decisions independents make. If they don’t want to wear that decision in 4 years they should make a different decision.
Not that the strict mathematics of these things often matters to claims (just look at all the claims that float around about the Rudd CPRS).
Tassie Labor is controlled by one man still Paul Lennon, and Dean Winter should have shown some courage and made some concessions instead he has let the Libs be smarter. He needs to resign. What a dill.
Thanks KB, and also for the live feed of Parliament, as provided on your site.
Very interesting day coming up in Hobart.
jt1983 @ 9.53 am. Per your comment about Hare-Clark.
Do you think it’s time to revert Tasmania back to individual electorates, or leave HC in place.
I understand it can be altered by legislation (ie: doesn’t require a state referendum, to do so).
So, Labor got 1 of the 8 crossbench votes it needed, and they got that by supporting public subsidy for an industry whose cruelty to animals is only matched by their cruelty to people.
Good on the crossbench for negotiating some concessions out of the Liberals. Now, to keep up the pressure and get new concessions any time the Liberals need to pass legislation.
Labor have made it clear they have no intention of forming government. I’d suggest it would be better for them to take up positions in the crossbench, and allow someone who wants the responsibility to assume the title of opposition leader.
…& on the live feed, it’s started!
Just gone up from 40 watching to > 200. Boom!
Here’s the live feed link, as provided on KB’s site.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOV8URSo9iM
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/08/tasmania-2025-endgame-live.html
#PoliTAS
meher baba says:
Tuesday, August 19, 2025 at 9:57 am
________
Not disagreeing, the whole world has flipped its political alignments. Tongue in cheek, Tasmania hasn’t produced a world level political mind to solve that issue.
Badmouthing Labor is BAU for the Greens so that is only to be expected – regardless of the circumstances. Compare and contrast the singular lack of Greens bludgers attacks on Rockliff since the election. It is wall-to-wall Labor bad.
The Greens have a clear choice here: support a Liberal Government, and their Clayton’s policy ‘changes’, or not.
Bottom line? Labor can’t make the Greens vote one way or another. It is up to the Greens themselves. So it is up to the Greens to own the consequences. For once.
There are some delicious ironies. There have been hundreds of posts over the years excoriating Abetz.
Treasurer Abetz courtesy of the Greens?
@Boerwar – reminder: Labor needed 8 votes from the x bench, out of 5 greens and 6 others.
Labor managed to convince 1 of the 11. Even if the Greens supported Labor, that’s still only 16 votes.
And, Labor didn’t really even do anything to get the SFF vote, it’s just that the Liberals promised to do the right thing on greyhound racing while Labor did not.
Labor chose to offer the crossbench nothing. That is why the Liberals are forming government.
I am not sure what is weirder, Labor self sabotaging themselves, or partisans trying to blame the greens for it.
Can a Labor supporter tell me what Labor offered the greens?
madPJKfansays:
Tuesday, August 19, 2025 at 12:01 pm
That, Mr madPJKfan, will be revealed as soon as the Greens have a tizzy fit when they find that the Liberals have no intention of rewarding the Greens anything beyond a veneer of superficiality and disdain.
Shall the theme of the new arrangement be “purple reign” or “purple reins”?
I’d love to know what’s going on inside the Tasmanian Labor caucus right now. Not even getting a single crossbencher (of any kind) to back Butler for Speaker. What a self-imposed mess.
It is obvious that the Greens are utterly incapable of framing something as anything other than totally Labor’s fault and are now acting as if the Greens were just a sort of accidental bystanders and that any consequences have absolutely nothing to do with the Greens at all.
The Greens have just spent an entire state campaign calling for an end to native forestry, an end to salmon farming and an end to the stadium. They slagged Labor endlessly on those issues. They did the same during the recent federal election. Again, relentlessly.
They have spent the post election period on bludger relentlessly attacking Labor. A lot of this involved relentless personal attacks on people such as Albanese during the federal election and Winter during the state election: up close, personal and nasty to the point of being vicious.
The personal attacks by Greens politicians have been accompanied by insistent demands that the politicians who are being slagged at the same time MUST just talk with the Greens. These attacks are ongoing and have been particularly nasty today.
Hello?
Treasurer Abetz has nothing at all to do with the Greens?
Really?
madPJKfan.
Labor offered nothing except to dictate to the Greens.
If labor has moved further to the right than the Libs, that’s Labors fault.
As it is, it is quite a sombre moment for all involved.
The greens are satisfied with commitments given regarding Macquarie Harbour and evil greyhound racing.
It’s up to MAGA Labor to work out where they stand.
Rebecca says:
Tuesday, August 19, 2025 at 12:22 pm
I’d love to know what’s going on inside the Tasmanian Labor caucus right now. Not even getting a single crossbencher (of any kind) to back Butler for Speaker. What a self-imposed mess.
========================
I’d love to know what’s going on inside the Greens leadership right now. For two terms in a row they failed totally to achieve any sort of rapprochement with Labor. Could it be that the perenniel habit of nastily slagging Labor politicians is coming back to bite the Greens in the arse?
And Boerwar, you have hardly been mild in your personal attacks on the Greens. Last year you ran the line of Bandt and his toolie Dutton. Ridiculous.
Uh… what did the Greens offer Labor – other than some serious and serial personal vilification?
‘Vlad says:
Tuesday, August 19, 2025 at 12:28 pm
And Boerwar, you have hardly been mild in your personal attacks on the Greens. Last year you ran the line of Bandt and his toolie Dutton. Ridiculous.
…’
===========
Bandt was an intransigent who helped Dutton try to undermine a progressive government. It looks as if the people of their respective electorates got that message.
I wonder if the nasty personal attacks, up to and including calls by various Greens for Labor to replace Winter as leader, influenced Labor at all?
I think some posters on this blog are out of touch with reality.
What you must remember is that when the Greens declare red lines they cannot cross, it’s because they’re intransigent and allowing the perfect to be the enemy of the good. When a Labor leader refuses to negotiate under any circumstances, it’s because he’s making a brave stand on deeply held principles.
And don’t you forget it.
Amidst this thread turning into the predictable Labor vs Green war or Winter being derided as the worst ALP leader ever – the point remains that Rockcliff has 4 more seats than Labor and is closest to the 18 seats required for a majority, so he was always in the box seat to secure minority government, that’s the mathematics of it, no matter how much Labor partisans hate it.
Winter miscalculated by putting up that earlier no confidence motion in the first place, he clearly never expected Rockcliff to go to the governor and ask for an election – you reap what you sow, especially in modern politics. Tasmanian Labor got the election result they probably deserved!
Now the acid test will be on Rockcliff, will he really ban Greyhound racing, will the inquiry into the salmon farming industry be a proper one? Can Bridget Archer solve the health crisis in Tasmanian hospitals? Will the stadium be built without bankrupting the Tasmanian economy?
As for Labor in Tasmania, they need a long hard look at themselves, and a new leader, Winter clearly isn’t up to the task, so would Josh Willie be the one to take them forward over the next few years?
Can’t believe Winter is still Labor leader. Says a lot about their talent pool.
‘Ante Meridian says:
Tuesday, August 19, 2025 at 12:43 pm
I think some posters on this blog are out of touch with reality.
….’
=============
True. 100% true.
What the Greens are ignoring is that Labor has a race memory of being scarred by working with the Greens in the past. It has a current lived experience of incessant attacks, often personal attacks, by the Greens. Calls for Winter to resign or for Labor to replace Winter are a current case in point. (At the federal level Albanese is known to resent the vicious tactics which went with some of the Greens attempts to capture his seat.)
So, how do the Greens initiate a conversation? Sit back and wait for Labor to do so? Apologize for past and present behaviours and promise to play nice in future? Try and build some of the trust that goes with a stable government over a full term?
Ignore all of that and demand talks or else?
Indicate publicly that they are willing to compromise on the stadium, on salmon farming and on forestry?
I don’t know the answer to any of the above questions. But I do suggest that the Greens spend the next three years in building bridges with Labor instead of habitually setting them on fire.
I miss the days when at least the on-topic threads on PB used to have a majority of comments that were something other than barely-coherent, barely-related partisan nonsense from the same two or three accounts too low-effort to even bother trying to engage with everyone else’s discussion.