The Age reports on the first Resolve Strategic Victorian state poll since March, resuming the pollster’s practice of alternating between bi-monthly New South Wales and Victorian state polls from samples of 1000 that combine the relevant sub-samples from two of its monthly national polls. The results show a remarkable recovery in Labor’s fortunes, in common with Newspoll and RedBridge Group polls from July. Labor’s primary vote is up eight points from May to 32%, with the Coalition down by the same amount to 33% and the Greens down two to 12%. The size of the remainder, which consists of 9% independents and 13% others, makes two-party preferred hard to estimate, but it could be conservatively put at 53-47 in Labor’s favour. The change in preferred premier is relatively modest, Brad Battin maintaining a lead of 32-25 over Jacinta Allan, in from 36-23.
frednk @ #48 Saturday, August 23rd, 2025 – 6:54 pm
I’m thinking probably not, Labor’s most marginal seats are Outer Suburban/Regional seats like Bass, Pakenham, Hastings and Ripon. I don’t think they’ll retain those.
Then again if the Liberal party fractures, that changes everything. And they certainly do look like they’re going down that path.
Kirsdarke
I agree. And that is where the real action is going to be. But there is still room for the liberals to really mess up. They are trying hard.
Oh the Vic Lib schism is on! They have reached the political tipping point where they hate each other more than they hate the government.
It’ on like Donkey Kong.
As noted in the main thread, there is now talk of bringing back Kennett as Liberal party president. His bombast wore us out, much to his surprise in 1999, and he still smarts about it, 26 years on.
Out in Western Metro there is a massive stack and anti-stack brewing over Deeming’s seat. She will go apoplectic. Dog help us all.
Why does Resolve Strategic not poll specifically for the One Nation Party vote in Victoria as it does for the Greens Party? As a Victoria, I am fairly certain the vast majority (around 9%) of the 13% of the Others vote (which does not include the additional 9% vote for Independents) is a One Nation Party vote. The trend to One Nation is a nationwide trend seen at the May Federal election and continuing in the polls since the Fed election.
I suppose it would be logical to poll One Nation separately in Victoria like they do in Queensland, since ON got around 6% of the vote in Victoria at the Federal election when running in all seats.
I think they probably will if One Nation gets more than 5% of the vote at the 2026 state election, just Resolve likes the lines of its graphs to run through the polling cycle and a ON line appearing out of nowhere in the middle of 2025 would be a bit suspect.
But it would be nice to see how One Nation is tracking in Victorian state polls, if they get a vote in high single digits then there’s a significant amount of Upper House seats they could potentially gain.