Three-and-a-half weeks on, there remains no resolution to the July 19 Tasmanian election, which ended with Liberal on 14 seats, Labor on 10, the Greens on five, independents with five and one from Shooters Fishers and Farmers, with neither Liberal nor Labor winning the confidence-and-supply guarantees needed from cross-benchers. Owing to an unusual provision in the Tasmanian Constitution Act, in which ministers’ terms expire automatically seven days after the return of the election writs, the Governor was obliged to recommission Jeremy Rockliff’s Liberal government last week, inclusive of a ministerial reshuffle. But its survival is not ensured beyond the return of parliament next Tuesday, at which Labor leader Dean Winter plans to move a “constructive no confidence motion”, meaning one that puts Labor in government rather than requiring yet another election. There appears a good chance that this will be accomplished with the reluctant support of the Greens and at least three independents, even without formal commitments to support it through a full term in office.
Labor is determined not to enter anything that might be characterised as a deal with the Greens, without taking the principle to its ultimate conclusion by allowing the Liberals to remain in government, as was done in similar circumstances after the 1996 election. The Liberals are duly looking for four votes out of the six non-Greens cross-benchers, and appear unable to find them: independents Craig Garland, Peter George and Kristie Johnston have all signalled hostility in varying degrees, despite the Liberals offering a multi-party “budget panel”, a ban on greyhound racing and the protection of 40,000 hectares of forest from logging. Labor’s disinclination to follow suit presumably reflects confidence in the strength of their position, despite mounting expressions of frustration from both independents and Greens.
@Mostly Interested.
Cheers. Generally no clue about Tassie politics, but at the moment it’s the only game in town, and it’s fascinating. It’s clearly another country.
madPJKfansays:
Monday, August 18, 2025 at 7:21 pm
@goll.
[What is your take on this?}
What is Tasmania’s greatest most valuable asset ?
@goll
I literally have no idea. Surely this is a matter of opinion?
Or are you taking about Erica?
“On a different note, any chance William might moderate Ghost of Whitlam? The incessant low-effort bot-quality posts are just clogging up these threads, and this stuff really drags down discussions on PB these days.”
Incessant? I don’t think I’ve even made 10 posts in this entire thread, and half of them are responding to someone else (or responding to someone responding to me). Who made you the queen of what is and isn’t “quality” posts here?
“What is Tasmania’s greatest most valuable asset”
Being made a state in 1901. I bet if the founders knew 125 years later that Tasmania would only add a couple hundred thousand to it’s population in that time, vs the ACT almost matching it, and the big states going from half million to 5+ it would never have been granted state status.
I can’t believe that the Earthians want a Treasurer Abetz.
The PV requirement for majority government in Tasmania is about 45 percent. Maybe a smidgen less on a lucky day. Anyone delusional enough to think Labor will get anywhere near that mark in the short to medium term is, well, deluded.
Now, far be it for a mortal such as me to dare to advise such consummate master-strategists, but if I were to offer a humble suggestion it would be to catch a tram to Reality Street and learn to negotiate with the odd concession or two.
Perhaps something along the lines of, “Naturally we would prefer to govern in our own right, and were we to be allowed the opportunity to do so, I am confident my team would do an outstanding job. However, the voters have decided differently and we respect the voters’ verdict and will strive to form a government in line with their wishes.”
Or they can keep doing dummy-spits and stay in opposition.
I think that what many non-Tassie posters don’t get is that Tasmanian Labor is a different sort of party to the national party and most of the other state and territory branches.
Compromising a little over something like the stadium or salmon-farming wouldn’t seem like such a big deal to NSW Labor or ACT Labor. But for the people who control Tassie Labor – basically the left faction and their allies in the industrial unions, particularly the AMWU – it’s a matter of life and death.
And, as I’ve posted many times before, the problem with Labor’s stubborness is that, as the educated middle class of the state steadily grows (a growth fuelled by a large intake of migrating mainlanders) and the old school unionised working class steadily declines, clinging to its longstanding positions on these issues results in continuing electoral failure. And, most likely, a gradual but relentless electoral decline towards complete irrelevance.
I am certain that Winter realises that things need to change. But he’s not from the local party’s controlling faction, which has its head firmly buried in the ground. The party is running scared: to be frank, it’s gutless. The party keeps telling itself that if it does so much as to look at any of Greens’ policies, it will be blasted to smithereens by an electoral lightning bolt.
But the party was pretty much blasted to smithereens anyway in the recent election. What they’ve been doing isn’t working: it hasn’t come close to working in any election since 2006.
The time has come to adjust or die.
I would have thought that the natural environment in Tasmania is an asset of immeasurable value without doubt.
The natural environment is all inclusive.
(Employment would be foremost in the voters thoughts when considering voting intentions.)
The potential of Tasmania’s environment and the employment opportunities are underutilised with limitless potential.
The potential for the production of clean energy in such a pristine environment is massive.
The Salmon industry and its future will depend on costs. As technology develops there exists strong likelihood that the the industry’s focus will be away from the surrounds of the coastal water environment.
The Marinus Link Project has massive potential for both employment and environmental consideration.
This project has been badly managed by the Liberals Government.
The stadium, the elephant in the room, is not necessarily a bad outcome. The decision by the Liberals to completely under value Tasmania’s future in the AFL is a disaster as it redirects limited resources from the needs of the environment and employment.
The concepts of an AFL team to be called “the Devils” is perfectly understandable.
Having the conglomerate, the AFL hierarchy undervalue Tasmania and not contribute to the cost of establishing a Devils team is insulting in the extreme and much more. I’ll make reference to the progress Tasmanian cricket has been able to achieve with the support of the governing body.
The reputation and quality of the organic possibilities from the Tasmanian primary industry has not been utilized.
Tasmania seems to be on the cusp of extending the “contract” of a Liberal government, a proven fiscal calamity, environmental vandals with a history of poor transparency and deliberate obfuscation.
According to many comments from contributors on PB, a decision to go forward with a failed Liberal government is a preferred option !
The Liberals with the help of the media have been able to “pull the wool over the ideas” both moving toward the election and subsequently “muddying of the waters” post _no confidence”.
The hypocrisy of the Greens and Independents is unfathomable.
The willingness by many voters, commentators and contributors to put “the slipper in” regarding Dean Winter is a poor judgement of monumental proportions.
What’s Winter guilty of ?
Being honest, remaining steadfast and the now much maligned ability to remain consistent.
No one knows what you’ll get with the Liberals!
Abetz has outlined some fiscal “possibilities”!
Rockliff has the predictability of a Spinnaker!
What’s the names of the rest of the Liberals team!
The Greens remain the “I want to bat first” with the most appropriate environment for the Greens being chaotic.
The Independents have not responded well to their “group” name!
The chorus “Winter refuses to haggle” is mind bogglingly, astonishingly short sighted in the extreme.
Absolutely no one has any idea what tomorrow will serve up in the Tasmanian Assembly.
But it’s almost certain that no one will be happy, financially better off or feeling secure about future.
What a bloody shambles!
If anyone is inclined to reiterate again “that it’s all Winter’s fault” it is almost certain that they have their head stuck somewhere it shouldn’t be!
Disappointing but not really surprising, the Greens can hardly say no to some gains under the Liberals compared to nothing under Labor
It would be interesting to know what people who voted Green down there think about it but outside looking in they didn’t really have a choice in the end
Of course the numbers mean things can change at pretty much any time if Labor wants them to badly enough, I doubt they will
Will something happen that is a step too far for Abetz? I remember someone mentioned an abortion clinic or similar, I can’t imagine he’d be willing to fund something like that as Treasurer if the Opposition and crossbench forced the Government’s hand.
It should be a fascinating term of parliament. What happens with the stadium? Ruth Forrest no longer tied to Labor in terms of supporting it
Meher Baha – your spot on. They have this stubborn view that the Greens are to blame and some on here think the same.
A fifth term Liberal gov’t coming up in a state where all 5 Federal divisions are held by Labor.
It has to be problems within the state branch of the ALP.
Cross posted from the other thread.
‘meher baba says:
Monday, August 18, 2025 at 8:19 pm
BW: “The Greens need to make up their minds and stand for something: salmon farming, dog racing, native tree felling, cutting the public service, cutting public services, building a stadium.”
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Thanks for that. I needed a chuckle.’
==================
doG knows there is not a lot to laugh at down Tassie way.
The way things are going they will have parlayed their electoral pittance into killing off the dogs and installing Abetz.
Some one above asked what was Tasmania’s most valuable asset. So I did some calculations.
Tasmania has around 200,000 people in employment. Median wage around $77,000.
Wage bill around $15 billion, unless I have my figures wrong… far from unlikely.
If so, IMO that makes people Tasmania’s most valuable asset.’
There is nothing more certain than that the Greens know with absolute certainty that something bad is always totally somebody else’s fault and that anything good could only ever happen by grace of the Greens.
Hard Being Green says:
Monday, August 18, 2025 at 8:54 pm
Disappointing but not really surprising, the Greens can hardly say no to some gains under the Liberals…
—————————–
….and a stadium, salmon farming, logging, cuts to public services….
And there is the rub. The Greens ‘gains’ are hitched to massive losses like a horse is hitched to a carriage.
The Greens can’t claim one as a virtue without also fully owning the other as a villainy.
@Boerwar says: Monday, August 18, 2025 at 9:00 pm
“There is nothing more certain than that the Greens know with absolute that something bad is always totally somebody else’s fault and that anything good could only ever happen by grace of the Greens.”
~~~
There’s a time and place to criticise the Greens for their failures, this is not one of them. TAS Labor’s failure to form a minority government is entirely their fault. How do you somehow run to the right of the Liberals when it comes to native logging, greyhound racing and salmon farming?
At the very least Rockliff was willing to compromise with the crossbench by promising to end greyhound racing, review salmon farming (probably kicking that bucket down the road but it’s better than nothing) and roll back licensing for logging. What has TAS Labor offered? “Positive” discussions and criticising the Liberals over banning Greyhound racing?
EDIT: The Crossbench is majority left leaning, theoretically Labor should’ve seen eye to eye with the Greens, Johnston and George; Instead the former 2 won’t be supporting Labor’s motion of no confidence and George seems like he’s more happy with the Liberals rather than Labor
Any Fed implications for the Greens out of this, or too early.
This video speaks volumes about the state of the state
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1732631311470596
“Will something happen that is a step too far for Abetz”
Will something happen that is a step too far for the Greens after they nail their flag to the mast by voting to install the Liberal Party as the Government?
“Any Fed implications for the Greens out of this, or too early.”
N0 in the State itself. The Greens are at best, a weak 3rd place in Bass, Lyons and Franklin. Wilkie retiring would make Clark a Labor landslide and Braddon is a locked in Labor vs Liberal seat. In the Senate they will get 1 seat every election and nothing more or less.
Where this might have some impact is on the mainland where Labor will point out to Greens voters that while the Greens Political Party will talk about being progressive and bring out the big toothbrush again, but their actions are to vote for the Liberals, and ask is this really what a Greens voter wants to vote for.
Labor already made gains in 2025 when the electorate saw the Greens siding with the LNP to block progressive legislation and where they performed Liberal style NIMBY pro-rich campaigns against housing projects in Melbourne & Brisbane in local council.
Does anyone have the slightest clue what Labor’s strategy is? How is this a better result for them than being in power?
madPJKfan @ #169 Monday, August 18th, 2025 – 9:41 pm
It isnt, I think that’s what everyone is saying.
People on here are deluded, the Greens will never lose votes in the State of Bob Brown, he is a hero down their. Wake up Labor needs to sit down and negotiate with them and unless they do they will never get into government. Never period.
@Crispy Wedges and madPJKfan- you have nailed it again.
The “progressive vote” in Tassie is yet again two thirds Labor one third Green. It will ever be thus.
Government is on a platter if Dean Winter wants it, but yet again Winter Always Chickens Out.
Labor refusing government is somehow the Greens Political Party’s fault! Pretzel logic.
Call a vote of no confidence in isolation and the erstwhile Premier will be erstwhile. Tie the votes and lose – why would anyone vote for you without concessions? It is just dumb politics. You can’t govern with 10 seats in a 35 seat chamber. But you can govern with 14 when the Labor opposition lets you.
Forcing the election was stupid – unless there was an end game….. which there was not.
Unfortunately Labor need to have a good hard look at themselves, This strategy never looked like working. As soon as they pushed for an election, my thought was “what are you doing?” Winter made the stadium the main issue and it cost them votes. He should have waited until it was a fate a couple and positioned the ALP to fight on issues it could win on. He is an impatient child.
New thread.