Three-and-a-half weeks on, there remains no resolution to the July 19 Tasmanian election, which ended with Liberal on 14 seats, Labor on 10, the Greens on five, independents with five and one from Shooters Fishers and Farmers, with neither Liberal nor Labor winning the confidence-and-supply guarantees needed from cross-benchers. Owing to an unusual provision in the Tasmanian Constitution Act, in which ministers’ terms expire automatically seven days after the return of the election writs, the Governor was obliged to recommission Jeremy Rockliff’s Liberal government last week, inclusive of a ministerial reshuffle. But its survival is not ensured beyond the return of parliament next Tuesday, at which Labor leader Dean Winter plans to move a “constructive no confidence motion”, meaning one that puts Labor in government rather than requiring yet another election. There appears a good chance that this will be accomplished with the reluctant support of the Greens and at least three independents, even without formal commitments to support it through a full term in office.
Labor is determined not to enter anything that might be characterised as a deal with the Greens, without taking the principle to its ultimate conclusion by allowing the Liberals to remain in government, as was done in similar circumstances after the 1996 election. The Liberals are duly looking for four votes out of the six non-Greens cross-benchers, and appear unable to find them: independents Craig Garland, Peter George and Kristie Johnston have all signalled hostility in varying degrees, despite the Liberals offering a multi-party “budget panel”, a ban on greyhound racing and the protection of 40,000 hectares of forest from logging. Labor’s disinclination to follow suit presumably reflects confidence in the strength of their position, despite mounting expressions of frustration from both independents and Greens.
Democracy Sausage says:
Sunday, August 17, 2025 at 5:06 pm
O’Bryne was always going to do a deal with Rockcliff, no surprises there!
Labor at this point would do better to concentrate on being an effective opposition for the next term of government, and if that means replacing Dean Winter as leader with someone else, so be it. The chances of them magically falling into government in the next few days look very remote to me.
To be frank, you can’t form government with only 10 seats out of 35 and the lowest primary vote in Tasmanian electoral history.
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Here’s the thing Democracy Sausage – The progressive party vote is irretrievably split in the Tasmania (Indeed across all of Australia) At effectively 2/3 ALP and 1/3 Green. Then there are the anti-conservative independents.
Tasmanian Labor will never have a majority 2PP or a majority of seats. The 10/5 split is about the highest water mark.
If they ever want to be in government they will need to bridge the impossible gap:
Tassie ALP is forestry, mining, Salmon farming. 10 seats
Tassie Greens are conservationists (more so than on the mainland) 5 seats
Then there are the Teal types. 4-5 seats
The filthy libs have 14. That is also their high-water mark.
Then there is the traitor O’Byrne!
The ALP and Greens have to work out their differences or it is perpetual Lib minority governments in the fair apple Isle.
I’m not sure that the industrial base of the Tasmanian ALP and the green tree huggers have a lot in common (outside a social conscience) – but they need to find it.
No need to gnash their teeth – Dan Winter totally misread this. The Federal result was a complete rejection of Dutton and Trumpism. I don’t remember the Tassie Libs running around with MAGA hats.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/08/tasmania-2025-what-went-down-when-gray.html
Tasmania 2025: What Went Down When Gray Met The House In 1989
MABWM: “Then there is the traitor O’Byrne!”
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He’s not really a traitor, more of an outcast. The national leadership of his party dismissed him from the role of LOTO and then expelled him.
Liberals were only a few percent off majority government. Not at all convinced the days of majority government here are done.
After all the rumours and scuttlebutt, looks like Labor are staying pure and not offering up anything the those pesky Greens Political Party or Independents for their votes.
Very commendable for Labor to stay pure…and in opposition. A fantastic retort to the allegation so often made of others.
Does feel a little like the Blazing Saddles kidnap scene – vote for me or I’ll get it in the neck.
Hm. Tasmanian Labor are as thick as the federal Liberals.
The commentary regarding the Tasmania political brouhaha, both on the MSM with its published comments and on this site have been fascinating and revealing.
At this stage I’m “none the wiser” after digesting everyone’s efforts as to a possible outcomes and the reasoning for such outcomes.
I’m certainly not prepared to add any more “fuel” to the speculation and do wonder as to the “sense of engagement” by the “average” Tasmanian in the “brouhaha”.
There’s been plenty of changes in 222 years that’s for sure.
“Interesting observation. Perhaps this is all a bit of a charade on Labor’s part, and their true preference is for more time in opposition, dreaming of the day when they can win 18 seats off their own bat.”
I concluded this a few days ago. But they obviously have to keep up the charade – and if they somehow stumble into government in spite of everything and no concessions to Greens, so be it and they’ll cross that bridge when they come to it.
You could well be right in saying majority government is still a possibility down there Kevin, hard to see it being a Labor one any time soon though
Interesting that the Tasmanian Liberals could become a role model for others, keep the religious right in check and be willing to negotiate to stay / get in power
Not that they are over the line yet though, we’ll see how tomorrow plays out
Bit of a lesson for Labor as well, if it happens, don’t take the Greens support for granted
HBG: “Interesting that the Tasmanian Liberals could become a role model for others, keep the religious right in check and be willing to negotiate to stay / get in power.”
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I think the key figure in all this is Abetz, who is playing a smart game. He is well aware that he is not that popular beyond the Christian right, and that he would always struggle to win the support of any sort of crossbench.
Hence, he probably could have pushed to become Premier in the aftermath of the 2024 election, but he continued to back Rockliff. Again, he could have replaced Rockliff after the no-confidence motion succeeded, but he chose not to do this.
Now, if the Libs survive Winter’s motion, Abetz will be occupying very powerful and prominent position as Treasurer, with the opportunity to become something of a hero if he can fix the budget mess. He can also work on trying to appeal a little more to the political centre and then, if Rockliff were to volunteer to move on at some point during the current term, he might be able to move into the top job without bringing down the government.
It will be difficult to pull off, but it’s surely his only chance of ever being able to serve as Premier other than in a Lady Jane Grey sort of scenario.
As for Winter’s situation. It appears increasingly likely that the Libs will hold on as a consequence of agreeing to ban greyhound racing, to put a new logging project on hold, and to instigate a review into the salmon farming industry.
So far, we haven’t seen any significant concessions on the stadium, but I suspect there’ll be something announced after the Tasmanian Planning Commission’s final report is tabled (possibly this week). Some concessions will have to be made, or else the proposal will probably not get through the LC. (At least under the Libs. I assume that the path would have been easier because, despite her staunch opposition in the past, Ruth Forrest would have been forced to vote for the proposal as a consequence of being a member of the Cabinet. I assume that she was always intending that this would be her last term.)
If you look at what the Libs have put on the table, it doesn’t amount to all that much. So a lot of Labor supporters must be thinking “why couldn’t we have done that?”
My contention, which I feel more and more certain about, is that Winter’s failure to negotiate effectively all revolves around the salmon industry and just how far Albo has gone out on a limb to support it. I don’t believe that the national executive of the party is allowing Winter any room to negotiate on the issue. Nor on the stadium for that matter. Captain’s call and all that.
‘meher baba says:
Monday, August 18, 2025 at 8:09 am
…’
Abetz as Lady Jane Grey?
hoo haaa!
There is nothing quite like the smell of voters being scorched by the BOPpers in the morning.
Little did the Dogs voters know that they were going to be the sacrificial cows.
Maybe Dean should just sit on his hands tomorrow and spare himself the humiliation.
Tomorrow is a long time away Mundo !
It’s the evening before the morning after.
When in doubt, just keep doubting.
Everyone knows where Dean Winter is standing. The others!
So tomorrow is the big day, and it looks like the Greens now won’t back Labor, according to the Mercury.
This article provides a bit of a run down of tactics tomorrow.
Link: https://tasmaniantimes.com/2025/08/constructing-no-confidence-a-house-on-sand/
Funny how all the talk of the past year has been that Labor would need to be “forced” into a Greens alliance in Federal Politics, but the first time the Greens Political Party began an alliance it was with the Liberal Party in Tasmania.
Vote Green – Get Liberals.
For the true political tragics, another episode of the Tasmanian political insider chatfest Fontcast dropped this morning.
https://www.fontpr.com.au/fontcast
The reasonably diverse group of commentators are unanimous in predicting that Rockliff has done more than enough to retain power, and that it is possible that only the 10 Labor MPs are going to vote for Winter’s motion. The other main gossip was that the Libs are putting forward Jacquie Petrusma as Speaker, and, assuming that Rockliff’s various deals hold fast, she will be elected to the office.
And in further news, the Greens are going to vote against Winter’s motion.
https://pulsetasmania.com.au/news/greens-refuse-to-support-labors-no-confidence-motion-against-liberal-government/
It’s all over, red rover.
The Labor Party in Tasmania has to be incredibly stupid, when will they realise that they will never ever get into government as a stand alone party. They will only get into government with the Greens as a coaliton partner to think that they will one day is just a fantasy.
They need to get realistic and in the real world and stop being dictated by big unions who seem to run them for their interests and not the interests of Tasmanians.
Ok, found it. Here is the latest EMRS poll from Tassie.
Sample: 503. Poll Period: 12-14 August.
It’s got primaries as well on pg.4, but that’s not important.
Main issues are on pg.9; hiring freeze & abandoning the AFL stadium are the biggies, as provided by Omar with his newspaper link, on the main thread.
Link: https://www.emrs.com.au/sites/default/files/documents/EMRS%20Pre-Parliament_Poll_2025.pdf
Hey meher & others.
Yes the Tassie situation was bubbling on the main thread this past half hour, but I knew this thread was still ticking along.
Greens Have No Confidence in Liberals or Labor
https://tasgreensmps.org/media-releases/greens-have-no-confidence-in-liberals-or-labor/
“Since the election on 19 July, the Greens have done everything possible to work across the parliament to realise the change we told Tasmanians we’d fight for.
Over the last two weeks, we met with Labor multiple times and had many phone conversations about possible policy compromises and outcomes. We made it clear from the outset, and repeatedly after, that the Greens expected some movement on the issues we campaigned on.
We know business as usual is failing this state, yet Labor refused to move. Dean Winter has shown no capacity or intention to negotiate in serious good faith with the Greens, or to make policy compromises.
Over the last five days, there have been several formal and informal conversations and letter exchanges between the Greens and other crossbench MPs, with Dean Winter and other members of the Labor caucus.
Labor’s final position on their policies was communicated by letter last night. They confirmed in writing their refusal to consider policy compromise on the key issues the Greens were elected to fight for – to stop the stadium and prioritise spending on health and housing, and to protect the marine environment and our forests.
In contrast, over the last week the Liberals have announced some significant policy shifts – on greyhound racing, salmon farming and on native forests. Jeremy Rockliff appears to understand the minority parliament dynamic he finds himself in – and the need for compromise. Dean Winter has not.
That said, announcements won’t be enough. The Liberals need to act on all three policy announcements they’ve made as soon as possible if they want to maintain a stable parliament. The Greens will hold them to their commitments from day one.
We want to make the Greens’ position clear to all Tasmanians ahead of Parliament tomorrow. We do not have confidence in the Liberals, but neither can we have confidence in Dean Winter’s Labor.
The Greens cannot support the motion Dean Winter has foreshadowed – a motion of no confidence in Jeremy Rockliff, and of confidence in himself to lead a Labor government.
The Greens will continue to work collaboratively from the crossbench to maintain a stable and functional minority parliament. We won’t stop holding the government to account. We will keep putting forward real legislative changes, seeking to find opportunities to work across the parliament – and fighting for this island and its people.”
Two thoughts on today’s developments:
1) How badly do you have to screw up to get the Greens, O’Byrne and Kristie Johnson, all of whom are Labor sympathetic while having some very significant differences, to all refuse to support a no-confidence motion in a Liberal government?
2) I think meher baba part-predicted the ultimate outcome upthread when he predicted that one way to solve the policy impasses on the stadium and salmon between the major parties and the crossbenches might be to agree to having reviews for them.
The Liberals’ decision to call a review into the salmon industry – and Winter’s politically suicidal decision to publicly attack the Liberals for doing so – was the death knell for any chance he had to form government.
That’s a lot of words for “We’re forming an alliance with the Liberal Party”.
Rebecca: Of course, Rockliff now faces the dilemma of what to do with the recommendations arising from the review into salmon farming. Assuming it is genuinely independent, it might conceivably make any of the following recommendations:
1) there is too much salmon farming and it needs to be significantly reduced;
2) the amount of salmon farming is about right, so there must be an ongoing moratorium on any expansion; or
3) salmon farming isn’t as environmentally-damaging as all that, and we can have more of it without too many problems.
2) would upset Peter George, Craig Garland and the Greens, while 3) would probably make them apopletic. It would be almost impossible for Rockliff to implement 1) without being rolled as Liberal leader.
Best-case scenario: the review gets bogged down and take a couple of years to complete. If I were Rockliff, I wouldn’t be overly generous in funding it.
Maybe Winter will amend the motion at the last minute to something different, perhaps just making a vote of confidence in Rockliff as Premier without installing Winter as an alternative part of the same motion.
Ghost of Whitlam: “That’s a lot of words for “We’re forming an alliance with the Liberal Party”.”
Have you noticed that just about nobody responds to you. Perhaps you aren’t expressing yourself forcefully enough and your message might not be getting through. How about you start posting the same thing over and over again?
Oh drat, that won’t work because you’ve already been doing that for quite some time.
Ghost
There might have been 1% of truth in your claim of Greens allying themselves with the Liberals if the vote upcoming had purely been a vote of no confidence in the Liberals.
But it isn’t – it’s a vote to simultaneously install Dean Winter as Labor Premier of Tassie in Rockliff’s place.
And as the Greens keep saying (goodness, I doubt I’d agree with them more than a couple of times a year on anything but they’re right as many Labor supporters also agree), there’s no case for providing confidence in Dean Winter and Labor to lead a government in Tassie. So the Greens are forced to vote against the motion that would, yes, remove Rockliff but would, yes, also install Dean Winter as Premier.
It’s not that hard if you’re not trying to spread an agenda in the misconception that PB is a place where people might be easily influenced to your partisan rendering of the matter (which I am quite sure you don’t believe yourself, it’s just ‘marketing’).
Rosalie Woodruff does need to make sure in her remaining media interviews pre and post vote (esp pre) that she gets that message across to Joe Public that the motion would install Dean Winter as Premier so that’s why she (i.e. the Greens) can’t support it, and she otherwise might be voting for the motion as she’s no Liberal fan. Otherwise Labor might win that particular PR attempt with the segment of hard left voters who don’t follow the detail too closely.
“Have you noticed that just about nobody responds to you”
Whoops, you just did.
Go police the internet somewhere else crybaby.
Ghost of Whitlam: “Go police the internet somewhere else crybaby.”
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Piss off nointer.
“Greens, who are Labor sympathetic”
Are the Greens Political Party really Labor sympathetic? The Greens voters are, but the Political operatives hate Labor and go along with whatever the Liberal Party latest attack lines are, and as we see now in Tasmania, would rather install a Liberal Party government!
Whenever the Greens get a sniff of power it gets used in alliances with the LNP to attack Labor for trying to improve the lives of the working class. Look at how MCM and Bandt acted in the last Federal Parliament for example.
“But it isn’t – it’s a vote to simultaneously install Dean Winter as Labor Premier of Tassie in Rockliff’s place.”
Yes. And the Greens picked the Liberal Party. No matter how it’s spun, the end result is a Greens-LNP alliance.
Colourful and Disgraced are the same thing but the scale is based on how much proof there is.
MI: Yes Winter is in a bit of strife. However, check out that EMRS poll today that shows Josh Willie at 10 per cent popularity as possible Treasurer – lower even than Guy Barnett on 15 per cent. Hardly a ringing endorsement of Willie as Winter’s replacement. Jess Munday didn’t make it into parliament, so she’s not a contender. Who else is there? Janie Finlay?
MB, I dont think he’ll step down. The parliamentary party are pretty gutless and probs won’t roll him. I haven’t been this angry at Labor since the 2004 federal election.
It’s pretty funny watching Labor partisans here trying to attack the Greens for actually achieving some of their policy objectives. Labor have achieved none of their own, and are further away from power than that were before their ill-advised no confidence motion.
It’s a shambles. Bizarre to watch. It’s worse than Albo’s Voice strategy. Unbelievable.
They could be in power tomorrow but refuse to be.
I can’t imagine Willie being too thrilled at Winter’s out-of-the-blue demotion attempt, and he’s still the obvious alternative if some of the Labor caucus decide they’d like a crack at government for a change. It’s not like anyone knew who Winter was when he became leader.
If the Labor caucus re-elects Winter after blowing it this time, it seems like they’re in for some Playford-era-SA-time on the opposition benches.
On a different note, any chance William might moderate Ghost of Whitlam? The incessant low-effort bot-quality posts are just clogging up these threads, and this stuff really drags down discussions on PB these days.
I guess Labor could argue that its strategy of refusing to deal with the Greens and to budge on any of its major policies is identical to that adopted by Will Hodgman in 2010 and which saw the Libs achieve majority government at the following election in 2014.
The difference of course is that, in the 2010 election, Hodgman achieved a more than 7 per cent swing towards his party, lifting their proportion of the primary vote to 39 per cent. On this occasion, Labor has experienced a 3 per cent swing against them, reducing their proportion of the primary vote to around 26 per cent.
It’s a long way from 26 per cent to majority government.
I am simply astonished by Tasmanian Labor’s political stupidity.
It also just doesn’t square with Labor losing seats to independents who aren’t on board with that 1970s view of the Tasmanian economy.
Like, what’s the path for Tasmanian Labor to winning majority government without the seats of Kristie Johnston in Clark, Peter George in Franklin, and Craig Garland in Braddon, the vote for all of which largely comes from usually Labor-leaning voters, and which you’re basically writing off until they retire by doubling down on the resources stuff? How do you win another eight seats if you can’t unseat those three in what would be otherwise winnable seats? And that’s not even getting into the seats lost to the Greens – are you going to win back Greens voters by doubling down on that?
Anyone in Labor who believes this stuff can’t count, and is clinging to assumptions based on governments that failed so long ago that Dean Winter was somewhere between nappies and primary school.
Kevin Bonham on X
“Some people already starting to refer to a “Liberal/Green coalition” on account of the Greens stating they will not support Labor’s proposed motion.
To put it mildly this is incorrect.
I’ll put it less mildly if it persists beyond the next few days.”
https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/1957339698990563708
Kevin Bonham on X
“”The Labor Party, who require the most support to form government, has doubled down on their behaviours and policies that led to their worst election result in over a century.””
https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/1957311945440469332
One is left thinking that Tasmanian Labor believe that their policy objectives are best served by keeping the Liberals in power.
It’s moronic, and unlike the mainland Liberals, you can’t put it down to nutjobs at Sky News having an outside influence on their branches and policies.
This is a catastrophe entirely of their own making.
The Teals are the winners if the Greens disgrace themselves again tomorrow and the Greens have an opportunity to fix some wrongs.
What direction will the Greens decide?
They have a litany of political errors.
The smirk or the grimace for Abetz ?
Good luck to them!
I’ll be interesting if you maintain that opinion at another election if the Liberals are able to make a fool of the Greens tomorrow.
Are there any Teals in Tasmania?
Odd comment.
Rebecca, pretty much.
Tas Labor has over successive parliments shed its conservationist inclined voters to independents. These voters didn’t go to the Greens. But the current leadership of Tas Labor isn’t talented enough to be able to walk both sides of the street, instead it just lies down in the middle of the road and blames everyone else when it gets run over.
@goll.
What is your take on this?
It’s a travesty for Tasmania every which way you look at it. Rockliff should go, but Labor are too fucking stupid to make it happen.
madPJKfan, you’d have to say Peter George looks like one. But Teals in the fashion of taking blue ribbon Liberal seats, probably not.