Kiama by-election: September 13

With the ignominious end of Gareth Ward’s political career, a significant New South Wales state by-election looms for the marginal seat of Kiama.

The New South Wales government has acted quickly to bring on a by-election in Gareth Ward’s South Coast region seat of Kiama, with the Speaker yesterday announcing a polling date of September 13. This follows Ward’s conviction a fortnight ago on sexual assault charges and resignation from parliament on Friday, forestalling an imminent motion for his expulsion. Ward held the seat as a Liberal from 2011 to 2021, when he resigned from the party and the ministry amid a police investigation that resulted in him being committed to trial in March 2022. Despite being suspended from parliament from this point, Ward retained his seat as an independent at the March 2023 election with a 0.8% margin over Labor, with the Liberals running a distant third.

The by-election will be contested by both major parties, with Labor sensing an opportunity to improve on its current 45 seats out of 93 and the Liberals confirming on Monday that they would take the field. It comes at a difficult time for the Liberals, whose standing in the polls looks to have deteriorated in the wake of the federal election, with the Sydney Morning Herald reporting suggestions Mark Speakman’s leadership is under threat. Local news website The Bugle suggests Labor is likely to again endorse Katelin McInerney, a former Illawarra Mercury journalist and official with the Media Entertainment and Arts Alliance, though another possibility is Kiama councillor Imogen Draisma. Former Shoalhaven councillor Serena Copley is named as a possible Liberal candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

43 comments on “Kiama by-election: September 13”

  2. Should be an interesting contest. Minn’s deserves a backlash but the Liberals are falling apart

    Greens should do ok but I’m hoping a progressive independent puts their hand up

  3. Very hasty scheduling of a by-election, and in the middle of footy finals too.
    A think it may be an ALP pickup. Sounds like the gov’t is feeling confident, and the state Libs look to be in disarray. A leadership spill of Speakman during the campaign won’t go down well either.

    Here is the quick link to the recent statewide Resolve figures, previously referenced by WB several weeks ago.

    Link: https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html

    You need to click on the “NSW” button to get the recent figures.

  4. Labor came very close in Kiama at the last state election but Gareth Ward sewed up preference deals that allowed him to squeak back in.

    If any Independent does put their hand up I would be turning to investigative journalism to try and track any connections to Ward, the renowned puppet master of local Liberal politics.

  5. I expect Labor will pick this up.

    Ward was an outstanding local member (putting aside his big personal faults) and without him I don’t think the Libs have much hope especially considering their disarray and Labor’s generally strong position in NSW.

    Kate Dezarnaulds is an independent who ran in Gilmore and finished 3rd ahead of the Greens but 25% behind the Libs at the 3CP stage of the count. It appears she will now try her luck in Kiama.

    You might consider her progressive: she had some Climate 200 backing but as far as I have ever been able to determine, her only definite policy statement was that she was opposed to nuclear power (good). She makes lots of motherhood statements about being opposed to division & denial and being in favour of “practical solutions” to a smorgasbord of issues without actually saying a word about what those practical solutions might be. She will probably do well around her home territory of Berry but I can’t see her exciting the rest of the Kiama electorate too much.

  6. https://thebuglenews.com.au/NewsStory/kate-backs-up-for-kiama-by-election-to-end-division-distraction-and-denial/689bfb9f45d596002e78a162

    After running for office for the first time earlier this year in the Gilmore federal election, Kate Dezarnaulds will run as an independent at next month’s by-election for the state seat of Kiama.

    Dezarnaulds finished third behind re-elected Labor member Fiona Phillips and Liberal candidate Andrew Constance at the 3 May federal poll.

    The Independent for South Coast organisation, which Dezarnaulds represented in the Gilmore campaign, had always intended to nominate candidates in the region at the next state election.

    Looks like Dezarnaulds is running. This could be an interesting 3-way contest, since from what I hear she’s based in Berry, which is in the centre of the Kiama state electorate.

  7. The backlash against Ward should be enough by itself to tip the seat considering the margin.

    The other surrounding circumstances give me no reason to assume otherwise.

  8. I am reminded of the huge swing against the Libs in Wagga 2018 when Daryl Maguire was forced to resign in disgrace, and Ward is an order of magnitude worse. The Libs are probably dumb to even run. If they stayed out this time you’d think it would ensure an indie would likely get in over Labor.

  9. Arky @ #8 Wednesday, August 13th, 2025 – 3:23 pm

    I am reminded of the huge swing against the Libs in Wagga 2018 when Daryl Maguire was forced to resign in disgrace, and Ward is an order of magnitude worse. The Libs are probably dumb to even run. If they stayed out this time you’d think it would ensure an indie would likely get in over Labor.

    Yeah, that’s true. With Optional Preferential Voting there is a degree of vote splitting that matters in NSW.

  10. The Libs will be going into a panic trying to figure out who they can put up for election in the seat. Somehow I think they’re in for a well deserved loss.

  12. Given the good people of Kiama have been without parliamentary representation for long enough, so the quick turn around is acceptable. It wasn’t like it was unexpected for a few weeks, therefore the NSW Electoral Commission would have already prepared a list of acceptable dates and would have been ready to go on Monday.

    It will probably be a pick up for the government given the nature of the resignation and the fact that the swing to Labor was delayed at the last election (as in some of the Labor vote went to Ward last time).

  13. Kronomex says:
    Wednesday, August 13, 2025 at 6:14 pm
    The Libs will be going into a panic trying to figure out who they can put up for election in the seat. Somehow I think they’re in for a well deserved loss.

    ‘Professional Politician’ Andrew Constance is probably up for it, and will move if necessary. 😉

  15. >>>>
    ‘Professional Politician’ Andrew Constance is probably up for it, and will move if necessary.

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>

    There are other rumors about his near future.

  16. Don’t know about the good people of Kiama. They voted for him with credible charges out against him. Could have spared us this by election

  17. As an outsider I would assume this was hard for the Liberals to win for good reason.

    Apart from candidate selection, are there any pressing local issues? If there was ever a time to promise Kiama a new school/hospital/bridge/train/footy oval, this is surely it.

  18. David Brown @ #15 Thursday, August 14th, 2025 – 10:33 am

    >>>>
    ‘Professional Politician’ Andrew Constance is probably up for it, and will move if necessary.

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>

    There are other rumors about his near future.

    That’s interesting, although I’m not sure what else he’d be doing. All 4 NSW Liberal Senators are relatively young or recent in their terms so I doubt they’ll give way for him. The nearest “safe” Liberal seat to Gilmore is Hume, so is Constance holding on to be successor for Angus Taylor?

    The only other options other than returning to the NSW Lower House is running for the Upper House.

  19. “NSW Labor has nominated the former journalist Katelin McInerney to run as its candidate in a state byelection in Kiama that will be held on Saturday, 13 September.

    The byelection follows the resignation of the seat’s former MP, Gareth Ward, who is currently in jail awaiting sentence after being convicted of one count of sexual intercourse without consent and three indecent assault charges.

    Ward had held the seat since 2011 – originally as a Liberal, but he won the seat as an independent in 2023 – despite the charges hanging over him. Labor is playing down expectations, with the NSW premier, Chris Minns, saying in a statement:

    We have to be realistic about the challenge ahead. This will be a tough seat for Labor to win – but Katelin knows her community, she understands their priorities, and she will work tirelessly to deliver for them.

    The Liberals have not yet announced their candidate but opposition leader Mark Speakman said Wednesday he thinks it is important to give people a choice.

    Katelin McInerney said of her selection:

    If I have the honour of being elected as the member, I will be a strong local voice and deliver more for our community. I will make sure that we continue to deliver the critical infrastructure and services that our community needs and relies on.” GA live blog 12:33

  20. As an outsider I would assume this was hard for the Liberals to win for good reason.

    Apart from candidate selection, are there any pressing local issues? If there was ever a time to promise Kiama a new school/hospital/bridge/train/footy oval, this is surely it.

    *****

    Nowra electric rail

  22. Katelin McInerney’s to do list:

    ✅ * Starting the Tripoli Way Extension in Albion Park and upgrades to the Princes Highway, Nowra Bypass, and Moss Vale Road.

    ✅ * Building a new public primary school and public preschool in Calderwood.

    ✅ * Upgrading Bomaderry High and Kiama High and building a new public preschool in Bomaderry.

    ✅ * Delivering the new Shellharbour and Shoalhaven Hospital Developments – with the health workers needed to run them.

  26. Things looking grim for the NSW State Liberals…

    Leadership chatter ebbs and flows when an opposition has minimal hope of winning power at the next election. At the moment, thanks to a range of factors impacting the Liberals, including poor polling, a looming byelection sparked by the conviction of rapist and former Liberal MP Gareth Ward, and jittery backbenchers, the longevity of Speakman as leader is topic du jour among the Coalition.

    But the question for those anxious Liberals is this: Is it better the devil you know?

    Speakman is cerebral and often approaches his role through a barrister’s lens rather than a political one. He has failed to land a blow on the polished Premier Chris Minns, and has allowed his senior lieutenants to make poor political choices, such as befriending the increasingly isolated and unpredictable Mark Latham. Frontbenchers are doing little to develop policy.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/liberal-leadership-rumblings-have-arrived-just-as-the-leader-himself-predicted-20250812-p5mmfr.html

  27. Will a Kiama loss be the final straw for Speakman?

    The wannabees are lining up..

    There are a number of ambitious Liberal MPs who have leadership aspirations. The most commonly cited are moderates energy spokesman James Griffin and health spokeswoman Kellie Sloane. MP for Epping Monica Tudehope (from the right faction) is leadership material, although too new in the job to challenge.

    However, if Griffin or Sloane want Speakman’s job any time soon, they are making no moves. Griffin’s perceived mishandling of a renewables bill, which ended with Liberal frontbencher Wendy Tuckerman quitting the shadow cabinet in protest, has damaged his short-term chances of convincing colleagues he could do the top job. Sloane is in her first term and needs more time.

    Above all else, Griffin and Sloane would be acutely aware that to take the leadership now would be to inherit a poisoned chalice.

    That leaves shadow attorney-general Alister Henskens. Speakman knows Henskens wants his job. In a rare display of political brinkmanship, Speakman used the housing debate this week to take a veiled swipe at Henskens, the right-wing MP for Wahroonga who has been a vocal NIMBY.
    …..
    For now, the leadership speculation will die down. With no obvious replacement and no trigger for a leadership spill, Speakman should be able to breathe easy for a time. The outcome of the Kiama byelection may cause some ripples, but it is difficult to see how a loss in that seat can be attributed to Speakman. The damaged reputation of the Liberals and their links to Ward will be to blame if Kiama turns on the party when voters go to the polls on September 13.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/liberal-leadership-rumblings-have-arrived-just-as-the-leader-himself-predicted-20250812-p5mmfr.html

  28. Katelin will restore the seat’s pre 2011 native footing.

    I’m really looking forward to the opportunity to go back into campaign mode- the next few weeks will be fun

  29. “Griffin’s perceived mishandling of a renewables bill, which ended with Liberal frontbencher Wendy Tuckerman quitting the shadow cabinet in protest, has damaged his short-term chances of convincing colleagues he could do the top job.”

    Penny Sharpe claimed in the LC that she briefed Griffin on the renewables bill* about a week before the bill was to be tabled but for some reason he didn’t inform his colleagues and thus it wasn’t taken to cabinet. The bill passed on the voices in the LA but in the LC it went to a vote (28-10). The Libs voted for, the Nats voted against**.

    * An amendment to the Electricity Infrastructure Investment Act 2020.
    ** Including shadow education minister Sarah Mitchell. I guess cabinet solidarity isn’t a thing anymore.

  30. It appears Gareth Ward will be replaced by a woman. Candidates are:

    Katelin McInerney – Labor
    Kate Dezarnaulds – Teal
    Serena Copley – Liberal
    Tonia Gray – Greens

    And Chris Minns has got an important job to do in Kiama, announcing the Labor candidate..

  31. Mr Constance was a previous state mp for Bega when he resigned why would he contest a state seat again?
    He could possibly still be there if he did not resign

  32. A very good article in the SMH today on Ward. Even without the SA conviction he still sounds like an absolute piece of shit yet somehow smoozed enough of his constituents.

    Shame on the voters of Kiama for returning him in 2023.

  34. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, August 14, 2025 at 5:46 pm

    Katelin McInerney’s to do list:
    _____________________________________________________________________________

    Katelin McInerny can make all the promises she likes but with the Libs not being in power it’s all just fairy dust. Besides if, and that’s a big if, she gets elected it’ll be the same old refrain, “Say what you like BUT if you become a pollie you WILL toe the party line or else.”

  35. In reply to C@tmomma:
    Katelin McInerney’s to do list:

    ✅ * Starting the Tripoli Way Extension in Albion Park and upgrades to the Princes Highway, Nowra Bypass, and Moss Vale Road.

    The Princes Highway has already been upgraded over the last 12(?) years as far as the south bank of the Shoalhaven (Gerringong upgrade; Albion Park bypass; Gerringong-Berry upgrade; Berry-Bomaderry upgrade; new Shoalhaven River bridge).
    Unfortunately the Nowra Bypass will probably remain a pipedream for decades more.
    There is not really much more can be done easily about Moss Vale Rd except hope that the extensive stabilisation of the last three years works (unless somebody wants to build a tunnel under Cambewarra mountain). Everybody wants to keep the Hampden Bridge in KV so restrictions will probably remain unless another bridge is built across the Kangaroo River somewhere – which could be unpopular.

    ✅ * Building a new public primary school and public preschool in Calderwood.

    ✅ * Upgrading Bomaderry High and Kiama High and building a new public preschool in Bomaderry.

    Bomaderry High is most of the way through a big upgrade/rebuild. Kiama High could certainly use an expansion.

    ✅ * Delivering the new Shellharbour and Shoalhaven Hospital Developments – with the health workers needed to run them.

    The Shoalhaven hospital redevelopment/upgrade is well along the way to being finished and should be completed in 2026. The new Shellharbor Hospital is also underway and should be finished in 2027. There shouldn’t be any issues with them getting built. As you hint, getting the health workers, mainly doctors, may be trickier.

    So Katelin McInerney should already be well placed for her share of ribbon cutting, and presumably taking credit, over the next few years.

    [Kronomex – Katelin McInerney is the Labor not Liberal candidate]

  36. DodgyDave says:
    Friday, August 15, 2025 at 10:21 am

    Thanks for setting me straight on that matter. It’s a, “Whoops.” moment.

  38. It ought to be a Labor win on September 13, Kiama is a traditional Labor seat and in the federal election, the corresponding area within the seat of Gilmore swung heavily towards Albanese.
    Not sure either if the whole Gaza thing would hurt Chris Minns as much on the South Coast as it might in more Muslim dominated areas of Sydney.

  39. I’m glad the liberals have put up a candidate.

    It’s important to their voters that they are recognised as being important in every election not just those a party thinks they can win.

    I believe there are only a limited number of circumstances when bye-elections shouldn’t be challenged* by the major parties but “we’re going to lose anyway” isn’t one of them.

  40. @Mick Quinlivan: Andrew Constance has made four unsuccessful attempts at getting into federal parliament since 2020. Now he can’t get a job in the private sector. He is not a smart man and his personal life and health are messy. He has to find a way to make a living, and slinking back into state parliament is probably the best he could do.

  42. Ballot order

    Tonia Gray – The Greens
    Serena Copley – Liberal
    Andew Thaler – Independent
    Roger Woodward – Independent
    Don Fuggle – Legalise Cannabis Party
    Ken Davis – Sustainable Australia Party
    Lisa Cotton – Independent
    Cyrille Jeufo Keuheu – Indepdent
    Felix Nelson – Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
    Joshua Beer – Libertarian
    Ellie Robertson – Animal Justice Party
    Kate Dezarnaulds – Indepdent
    Katelein McInerney – Labor

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