DemosAU: Liberal 34.0, Labor 26.3, Greens 15.1 in Tasmania

A second poll for the Tasmanian state election is much more encouraging for the Liberals than the first, with both recording strong support for independents.

Results from a second poll of the Tasmanian election campaign, conducted by DemosAU for an unidentified peak body, have been published in full by Pulse Tasmania, providing breakdowns by division from substantial sub-samples, the overall sample being 4289. The results are markedly more favourable to the Liberals than the YouGov poll, though both have similar field work periods: June 19 to 26 for DemosAU, June 15 to 25 for YouGov. Both major parties are down on the 2024 result, the Coalition from 36.7% to 34.0% and Labor from 29.0% to 26.3%, with the Greens up from 13.9% to 15.0% and independents from 9.6% to 19.3%.

The tables below account for both pollsters’ divisional breakdowns, together with the results from 2024 election.

LIB ALP GRN IND NAT SFF JLN
DemosAU
Bass 33.5 27.5 18.8 11.1 5.1 4
Braddon 44 25.2 9.3 15.6 2.6 3.3
Clark 26.2 23.6 22.7 27.5
Franklin 29.1 22.6 12.9 35.4
Lyons 35.9 31.9 13.1 8.4 3.7 7
TOTAL 34 26.3 15.1 19.3 2.3 3
YouGov
Bass 36 34 12 15
Braddon 35 34 5 19
Clark 24 27 17 30
Franklin 31 38 9 20
Lyons 34 34 13 15
TOTAL 31 34 13 18
2024 election
Bass 38 29.8 12 8 2.4 8.1
Braddon 45.6 24.7 6.6 7.5 2.9 11.4
Clark 27.1 30.5 20.9 17.6 1.5
Franklin 34 27.3 19.8 11.8 4.9
Lyons 37.6 32.8 10.9 4 4.8 8.3
TOTAL 36.7 29 13.9 9.6 2.3 6.7

My own take on how the DemosAU result would play out is that the Liberals could just about hope to maintain their 14 seats, or fall one short; Labor would likely be up one to 11; the Greens could win five six, depending on whether the Liberals get 14 or 13; there would be five independents, up from three; and the Nationals would fail in their bid to account for three seats currently held by the Jacqui Lambie Network. YouGov suggests it’s Labor that could get to 14, reducing the Liberals to 12, the Greens to five and independents to four. To summarise:

Bass. Both polls, though especially YouGov, had an independent vote high enough to suggest that former Jacqui Lambie Network member Rebekah Pentland has some hope of retaining her seat as an independent. Whereas DemosAU suggests this would be in the context of a status quo result (three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens plus Pentland), the YouGov poll, both in terms of its small-sample breakdown and its general thrust, suggests Labor has some hope of taking a seat off the Liberals. The DemosAU poll suggests a second seat for the Greens would in fact be more likely than a third for Labor.

Braddon. Both polls suggest the issue is what will become of the seat won in 2024 by the Jacqui Lambie Network, with DemosAU finding little encouragement for the Nationals in their bid to fill the gap. DemosAU suggests it will come down to a race between a fourth Liberal and a seat for the presently unrepresented Greens, while YouGov’s breakdown suggests a third seat for Labor. Both are encouraging for independent incumbent Craig Garland.

Clark. DemosAU’s 27.5% independent result, which almost matches YouGov’s 30%, suggests incumbent Kristie Johnston will be joined by former senior Liberal Elise Archer, although a lot depends on how it breaks down. With the Liberals over two quotas and Labor and the Greens not far off, the result suggests an independent could poll relatively strongly but still fall short – a status quo result.

Franklin. DemosAU has an extraordinary 35.4% for independents, which suggests that Peter George’s ticket will perform very strongly without depriving independent incumbent David O’Byrne, or win a second seat if it does. The remainder would have Liberal down from three to two, and Labor and the Greens unchanged on two and one. Conversely, the YouGov numbers suggest a third seat for Labor at the expense of a second independent.

Lyons. Here the DemosAU result allows for an independent only if one out of the seven ungrouped contenders dominates the others. Otherwise it looks more like three each for Liberal and Labor (a gain of one in Labor’s case) and one for the Greens. YouGov’s numbers suggest an independent win to be more likely without offering clarity as to whether Liberal or Labor would be reduced to two seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

31 comments on “DemosAU: Liberal 34.0, Labor 26.3, Greens 15.1 in Tasmania”

  2. With rumours that the yet to be released 3rd poll (possibly EMRS) falling somewhere in between its starting to become hard to ignore that after this election the status quo will more or less remain the same.

    If thats the case then everyone will be asking, so what was it all for, and now what. The parties will be no closer to agreement on the fundamentals regarding the budget position, and there isn’t any revenue fixes in place.

    Everyone keeps pointing at the Greens as a solution to stable government but on all three occasions that either the Libs or Lab have teamed up with them a decade of opposition awaits at the very next election. This isn’t necessarily the Greens fault, but Tasmanian voters backlash against them and the partnership party. That just can’t be ignored. And it’s why no one has approached them on the 3 times in the last year to form government.

    There is really social antipathy between the voters.

  3. As a Greens supporter I was genuinely thinking 4 might be the best they would do this time, Kevin gave me a lot more confidence they’d keep their 5 and now I have hopes of 6 and am dreaming of 7

    Surely getting to 6 would force Labor’s hand?

    Understanding the history down there but still, the voters would be sending a message that they want Labor to try and make it work imo

    Noting that doesn’t necessarily mean Greens in a minority Labor government although if Labor don’t get to at least 13 they’d almost need some to cover the workload

    You would the think the Liberals would struggle from even 14 given a no from the Greens (or should they think about it if Labor refuses to work with them?) and the likely mix of independents

    Of course Labor + independents still a possibility as well if the numbers add up

    Interesting to hear the Liberals announce a policy around a state owned insurance agency

  5. Hard Being Green, I struggle with the idea of ‘voter sending a message to Labor’. On the whole they aren’t , the fragmented electorate are just getting more tribal.

    The third who vote for Labor certainly aren’t sending that message. The third who vote for Liberals certainly aren’t sending that message. The sixth of the electorate voting for independents aren’t saying Labor you must work with the Greens. And I would argue the sixth of the electorate who vote for the Greens are just voting for the Greens, not some coded message to Labor.

    I know the text version of this sounds snarky, it isn’t meant to be, its just I don’t see some secret message to Labor in the voting intentions of greens voters. I do see a very overt message given by the rest of the voters in Tasmania when one of the two larger parties does partner with the Greens, all the evidence is they get electorally punished for years afterwards. That’s a pretty clear message.

  6. I think the relevance of the outcomes of minority governments in the 80s and 90s is a bit questionable at this point, given that there are voters who are now middle-aged who would’ve barely been out of nappies when the Field government was elected and in primary school for the Rundle Government. The Bartlett-Giddings government is a poor example due to that uniquely being a formal coalition, which I think just about everyone agrees is mutually detrimental at this point.

  7. In some ways, the Tas Libs have done what the Fed Labor party has done, hold the center. It’s pushed Tas Labor into the irrelevant space and they cant get out of it. There isnt a lot of wiggle room. Also in Tas the right has not fractured like it has at the federal level, but the Tas left is hopelessly fragmented.

    The Labor right are like the Liberal left so voters dont see any differentiation. So no real reason to switch. The other issue is the sorry state of Tasmanian finances and the timidity of both parties means no new golden age for the state. Below 4% unemployment, but the wages are lower and the houses more expensive.

    The state’s finances dont allow you to buy your way out of the issues either.

    Without knowing the details of the proposed state owned insurance business, I can see why voters might like it. Lower insurance rates is a good promise, revenue for the state is also a good promise. And a state owned business isnt even a tory idea, thats what I mean the Libs hold the center

  8. Two men say they’re Jesus, one of them must be wrong. And there’s a protest singer, he’s singin’ a protest song.

    (Dire Straits – Industrial Disease)

    Someone is flat wrong, these two polls are not consistent with each other and present drastically different narratives. Trying to assume which one is right is probably a mug’s game unless we get more info.

    The next round of polling will be especially interesting.

  10. Mostly Interested I guess my take is that if the voters really hated the idea of minority government they’d stop electing one

    Makes sense from there that the parties find a way to make it work

    Good point from Rebecca as well, history doesn’t have to dictate future

    Labor has worked with the Greens, in various forms, in the ACT for a very long time now. Accepting Tassie and The ACT are very different

    Bring on more polls

  12. “I guess my take is that if the voters really hated the idea of minority government they’d stop electing one” – problem is those wanting to vote for a majority cannot work out how until one party takes enough of a polling lead that it’s clear that it can form a majority if more voters get on board while the other side cannot. We’ve seen this before in 2010 where we had 4 former Labor and Liberal Premiers signing a joint letter supporting majority government but to no avail as the voters wanting a majority government had no collective way to ensure it with some voting Liberal and some Labor.

  13. The Libs/Nats have not won a 5th term or more at any juristiction in this country since Joh in QLD. It won’t happen. The stadium, the Libs are unpopular.

    But It’s clear everytime Nick McKim,l and Bob Brown run their mouths it hurts Labor because people are scared of a Labor/Greens gov. I blame Nick McKim for this.

    How does Australia’s longest current serving state government continue on? It is not democratic for 1 party to stay in power for 20+ years like the Bolte/Hamer/Thompson and Nicklin/Petersen/Ahern/Cooper governments did. Most democracies change gov after 3-4 terms and it is time Tasmania did the same.

    I would be willing to challenge anyone who thinks this is what the Tasmanian people “want”

  14. @Mostly Interested –
    “Aggregate, Arky, aggregate.”

    Two polls is not enough to usefully aggregate and the no confidence motion and election being called is enough of a black swan event that aggregating pre election polls in with the new polls isn’t very useful to me. Hence more new polls will be useful.

    I am mindful of the Demos poll being said to be on behalf of an unidentified peak body. The YouGov poll was potentially the start of a narrative that Labor could form majority government if some more people got on board. Commissioned polling being released to say “no actually the Liberals are still in it and Labor is far from majority” is a bit suspicious to me. That said, I naturally want the Demos poll to be wrong so while there is a reason to be suspicious of it it isn’t necessarily wrong just because it would suit me!

    Not being in Tasmania this is not like the Federal election where I had a good sense on the ground that things were going well regardless of whether the polling reflected it.

  16. Just on that point about the relevance of the Field and Rundle government defeats in 2025: Dean Winter had just turned four when Field was elected, and was eleven years old when Tony Rundle was elected.

    A lot has changed in that time.

  17. @Kevin Bonham:
    “The DemosAU poll came out at more or less exactly the same time as YouGov (the same day within hours), there wasn’t any conspiracy there.”

    Thanks, the news of one trickling in here well after the other made me think that they were released days apart despite the field time; commissioned polls being in the field but only released to the public if useful to the commissioner’s narrative is of course an old trick, and I still wouldn’t entirely rule it out, but it can’t have been done directly in response to the YouGov poll then.

  18. Rebecca, but it is part of Tasmanian political folk lore. He would have sat at the feet of people who were adults at that time. I went through the Tasmanian parliament house a little while back, every few steps there’d be a little story which had been handed down. My favourite was where one party used a glass on the floor to eavesdrop on the other party as their meeting rooms were stacked above each other.

  19. If those turn out to be the numbers at the election, what a mess.

    At this rate Tasmania’s going to have annual Lower House elections, just like its Upper House.

  20. Podcast #152: Who will fill the Lambie vacuum?
    https://www.tallyroom.com.au/60826

    The ‘others’ primary vote in Tasmania
    https://www.tallyroom.com.au/60865

    “But for this post I want to focus a bit more on the vote for everyone else, and how it surged in 2024, finally pushing the combined major party vote down to a new low.
    ::::
    But 2024 was off the charts, with more than one fifth of voters electing someone outside of the three main parties. About a third of this vote went to the Jacqui Lambie Network, with three other parties polling about 4% between them, but almost 10% went to independents.

    It is this shift which explains why Tasmanian politics has become so different now. Hung parliaments are no longer just a question of the major party vote being even, or of the Greens holding the sole balance of power. And both major parties are now so far away from the vote they’d need to win a majority that it is hard to imagine such an outcome.
    :::
    The difference in 2024 is that the others vote spiked everywhere, all at once. The lowest level was 18.75% in Lyons.

    So how about 2025? The Lambie Network is departed, and it’s not clear if any of the successors to them (Pentland and the Nationals) can retain their vote. While there are fewer independent groups, those who did better in 2024 have put their hands up again. I also don’t have a lot of trust in the precise numbers from the polls in this regard. But the two polls we’ve seen so far point to a slight increase in the others vote above the 2024 peak.
    :::
    As long as these numbers are this high, I suspect we will see more hung parliaments elected. So the parties will probably need to find a way to deal with it.”

  22. Daniel T – challenge how – to a duel?
    Don’t election results ipso facto tell you “what the people want?” as opposed to some cockamamie theory based on what a small group of people have told you and you think?
    In the case of Tasmania different voters want different people to represent them and work out how to govern.
    Seems the issue is more like the politicians dont want what the people vote for.

  23. Call me dumb, but surely Labor is better off here biting the bullet and saying, Yes we want a Tasmanian AFL team, but it’s more important to have good schools, hospitals and roads for all of us first. We will do our best negotiating with the AFL to get a Tamanian AFL team but not at the expense of sending our state broke.

    I know the realpolitik here is that you have to guarantee the stadium to ensure the Tas AFL team. But I get the feeling most Taswegians have assumed that this is all doable by government and haven’t comprehended the financial impact of funding such a large initiative at the expense of core services that everyone relies on.

  24. In terms of the stadium, you don’t know if you don’t ask imo

    I’d be asking the AFL to reconsider the terms of the agreement and see if they’ll give some ground

    Hopfully the new government, whatever it looks like, will do that

  25. “conducted by DemosAU for an unidentified peak body”

    Any assessment of how commissioned polls by interested groups overstate their case…it could be green group or industry group. Or the Murdoch press.

    My sporadic, non-compiled memory is they usually favour the beneficiary of the interest. Like a consultant does in their report.

    In this case, probably an industry “peak body” that wants a Liberal government. Who might that be in Tassie?

  28. Shaping up to be an interesting and unpredictable election. Given Indys are probably showing too high in the polls as per Kevin Bonham, perhaps one of the 2 main parties might surge past their previous election showing quite significantly after all.

    You can’t help feeling that the leadership debates could be quite decisive, both in terms of the ‘preferred Premier’ question and its impact on the VI for the respective parties as a result, and in terms of convincing a few more % that, begrudgingly, the stadium is worth doing for the long-term benefits and actually, 1 billion $ could be gained or lost in all sorts of places and let’s not get it out of proportion (after all, Dean Winter just claimed he could save 1 billion $ ‘off the cuff’ if elected, as a start to a more sustainable budget).
    Conversely, the Indys might win the debate on the stadium convincingly (assuming some are in the debate??) and a very fragmented election result eventuates with both main parties sub-30%.

    I assume there are some debates? When are they?

  30. King O’Malley on Thursday at 11.15 pm

    Labor had a clearer position on the stadium fiasco in 2024. Their current position does not help their vote in the N, and probably not in the S.

    According to Dr Bonham on his main guide page, the Libs are repeating their 2024 approach, which was to use “a circular dead cat throwing machine … to get the media talking about anything, literally anything, that isn’t the stadium”. He says they are doing rinse and repeat.

    In an evidently low key campaign, your suggestion would have helped Labor highlight the big difference between Liberal and Labor in terms of their spending priorities. By contrast, Winter’s approach helps the Libs by default, because it does not highlight budgetary mismanagement, which was the main reason Winter gave for his no-confidence motion, which precipitated the election.

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