DemosAU has published its second poll of the Tasmanian state campaign, conducted for Pulse Tasmania, and the first from any pollster to go the extra mile in producing results on which individual candidates respondents plan to vote for – a matter of crucial importance under Hare-Clark, particularly in the context of historically high support for independents. It does so from a large sample of 3421, allowing for useable breakdowns for each of the five divisions. The topline figures record a deterioration in Labor’s position without suggesting the Liberals will emerge any stronger in the next parliament than the last: the Liberals are on 34.9%, down from 36.7% at the 2024 election, and up from 34.0% at the last DemosAU poll around three weeks ago; Labor are on 24.7%, down from 29.0% in 2024 and 26.3% in the previous poll; the Greens are on 15.6%, up from 13.9% in 2024 and 15.1% in the previous poll; and independents are on 20.3%. The poll was conducted July 6 to 10 from a sample of 3421.
To deal with each division in turn:
Bass. The result here is distinctive in having the Greens up 8.0% on the 2024 election to 20.0%, with the Liberals down 0.4% to 37.6% and Labor down 3.8% to 26.0%. To my semi-trained eye, this would be clearly consistent with three seats for Liberal, two for Labor and one for the Greens, with the last seat possibly going to a second Green (which would be a turn-up) or none-of-the-above. Incumbent former Jacqui Lambie Network independent Rebekah Pentland is on 4.3%, trailing another independent candidate, Launceston councillor George Razay, on 5.1%, with the Nationals on 3.5% – tight mutual preference flows could put one of these in contention. However, Kevin Bonham, who is far deeper into the lore of Hare-Clark than I am, doesn’t rate that possibility on these numbers, and in fact thinks Labor could take a third seat if all the non-incumbent Greens candidates get excluded before the business end of the count. The candidate breakdowns also suggest recently defeated federal member Bridget Archer is a shoo-in to take one of the Liberal seats (and given her ideological profile, I suspect a lot of that is personal support that will then leak away from the Liberal ticket), with Simon Wood the Liberal incumbent most likely to make way for her. Labor’s Jaine Finlay looks likely to be joined by Jess Greene, with former federal member Geoff Lyons in contention if Labor gets at third seat.
Braddon. The Liberals are on 40.8%, down 4.8% on 2024; Labor is on 23.5%, down 1.2%; the Greens are on 9.5%, up 2.9%; and independent incumbent Craig Garland is on 13.7%, up 8.6% on the vote that very narrowly got him elected last time. This looks to me like a case of the Greens winning the seat that went to the Jacqui Lambie Network in 2024, for a result of Liberal three, Labor two, Craig Garland one and Greens one. Former federal member Gavin Pearce looks like taking one of the three Liberal seats, with Roger Jaensch squeezed out, and Labor incumbent Shane Broad does not look assured of re-election on these numbers, which would come as a surprise.
Clark. The Liberals are on 28.1%, up 1.0% on 2024; Labor is on 25.6%, down 4.9%; the Greens are on 22.7%, up 1.8%; and independents are on 23.6%. A 27.5% result for independents in a previous poll by DemosAU late last month had me rating the possibility that former senior Liberal Elise Archer might join incumbent Kristie Johnston as a second independent, but the breakdown has her on only 4.3%, suggesting a status quo result where Liberal, Labor and the Greens win two seats each. The breakdowns suggest newcomer Marcus Vermey is a strong chance of taking a Liberal seat from one of the incumbents, Simon Behrakis and Madeleine Ogilvie.
Franklin. As with the previous DemosAU poll, the big story here is an independent vote of 35.2%, resulting in falls for the Liberals (down 2.3% on the 2024 election to 31.7%), Labor (down 4.9% to 22.4%) and especially the Greens (down 9.1% to 10.7%). The breakdowns reveal that the candidacy of Peter George, who polled 21.7% at the federal election, does not account for the entirety of the independent surge – David O’Byrne, former Labor leader and now independent incumbent, is on 13.7%, up 4.9% from 2024, with Peter George on 18.2%. Presumably this means a result of two Liberal (down from three, with Nic Street losing out), two Labor (with incumbent Meg Brown in a close race against newcomer Jess Munday for the second of the two seats), two independents and one Greens (who came close enough to a second seat in 2024 that the plunge in their support seems unlikely to endanger their incumbent, party leader Rosalie Woodruff).
Lyons. The Liberals are on 35.5%, down 2.1% on 2024; Labor is on 26.2%, down 6.6%; the Greens are on 16.3%, up 5.4%; and the Nationals get their best result with 6.2%. Presumably this means the three Liberal incumbents being re-elected; Labor winning two seats, with former federal member Brian Mitchell to displace incumbent Casey Farrell; and Tabatha Badger to be re-elected for the Greens. The last seat is hard to pick – together with the 6.2% Nationals vote, we find independent Angela Offord on 6.2%, Shooters Fishers and Farmers on 4.1% and “others” on 5.6%. Offord had not hitherto been on my radar, and I suspect her strong result reflects the fact that she was the only named independent response option. Kevin Bonham concurs with my instinct that the Nationals would do well enough out of Shooters preferences to be the likely winner on these numbers.
UPDATE: Here I am discussing the election on Ben Raue’s Tally Room podcast immediately after the DemosAU poll dropped on Monday morning, hopefully achieving semi-coherence through a fog of illness and pseudoephedrine:
Not sure if this is paywalled, but has the whole video if anyone cares.
https://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/jeremy-rockliff-dean-winter-set-to-face-off-in-only-televised-election-debate-of-2025-campaign/news-story/fa9fc2539b0de0dbe563ac851f49c494
Looking at KB’s aggregate of polling from the 2024 Tas Election, final figures were
Lib 36.9ALP 25.3 Green 13.2 JLN 9 IND/Other 15.7( IND12.7 other 3 )
Seat estimate for this aggregate 15-10-4-3-3.
Final Results were
Lib 36.67ALP 29 Green 13.89 JLN 6.67 IND/other 13.77
LIB 14 ALP 10 GRN 5 JLN 3 IND 3
Which isnt to far off in my books, with the Major party polling combined 62.2 and getting 65.67, which is only off by 3.47% and means less then 2/3 of ppl voted for a major party last time despite the similar circumstances of government instability and campaigning on majority government being necessary.
latest poll (i dont think KB has done an aggregate yet) has
Lib 34.9, ALP 24.7 giving a total of 59.6, plus the National Party 2.7, of which I am sure at least some voters would have state/federal confusion and view them as part of Coalition, so say 60.something for major parties.
This is less than 2% different to last election polling, and only 5% less than last election results, with (in my opinion) more independent appeal this time due to incumbancy benefits and anti major party issues being so strong (Stadium mainly but also Salmon).
The question is where the JLN 6.67% will go and how independent/other votes will split and leak (is leak right term for independents), but I personally see no reason to think that the independent/other polling-vote is off by more than margin of error. What that means in terms of seats is another question
Few surprises at Tasmanian leaders debate as Jeremy Rockliff and Dean Winter go head-to-head
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-16/analysis-rockliff-winter-debate-2025-tasmania-state-election/105536758
“Tasmania’s two major party leaders are sticking to their lines to the bitter end, going head-to-head in a debate that yielded little substance ahead of Saturday’s state election.
:::
On questions of a possible hung parliament, Mr Winter reiterated his resolve not to do a deal with the Greens.
:::
“We’ve repeatedly said we will not do deals with the Greens under any circumstances, and we won’t govern with the Greens.”
:::
Both leaders reinforced their support for a stadium at Macquarie Point, and there was little difference between their support for the salmon industry and native forest logging.”
I’m working on an aggregate. Not sure I can get it done tonight.
Thanks Pegasus, not sounding positive for a progressive parliament. Hopefully the outcome forces Winter’s, or Labor’s, hand
A combined major party vote, excluding the Nats, of under 60% will hopefully send a message, Labor under 25%?
More polls please
Tasmania is limping towards an election nobody wants. Here’s the state of play
https://theconversation.com/tasmania-is-limping-towards-an-election-nobody-wants-heres-the-state-of-play-260504
“It’s been a curious mix of humdrum plodding laced with cyanide levels of bitterness, with the most likely result being another hung parliament.
:::
The vibe of the campaign has veered wildly between pedestrian and acrimonious. Candidates have struggled to connect with a disgruntled public, and a combination of the stadium saga and political mudslinging have distracted from Tasmania’s serious challenges.
:::
Disappointingly, both Labor and Liberal leaders have repeatedly demanded the other side stop playing “political games”, while merrily engaging in skulduggery of their own.
:::
Polling shows that the two major parties are on the nose, particularly with younger voters. Labor and Liberal are fairly aligned on some of the headline issues that divide the electorate, including the stadium and salmon farming.
:::
Here’s hoping that the next government is willing to collaborate and compromise – for the good of the state and to restore trust in our political system.”
Honestly – even as someone who is open to minority governments, given the likely outcome … Libs the largest party with 13-15 seats, Labor status quo and the rest being a Green/Indie mix, I don’t see many outcomes for people to be particularly happy about.
Labor, if it was serious about its justification for the election – noting their messaging is “don’t give the Libs 15 years”… what’s their argument for them governing? I get Labor’s bloody-mindedness about not working with the Greens, given they are toxic to many ancestral Labor voters… however, if Labor refuses to form Government AFTER the election if they’re in the position to, the WHOLE LOT deserve to be thrown out. “The Liberals are truly terrible and don’t deserve to govern (I agree btw – even if for a long time I pointed to the Tas Liberal Governments as models for centre-right moderate-ness the Federal Liberals needed to look at) … but if they’re not clearly returned to government, we won’t form a government, unless it’s the precise make up we want?”
… so after all of this, we could end up with more or less the EXACT same make up? An election no one wants, with a result reflecting the electorate is mad at everyone… leading to more gridlock?
JFC.
The problem is jt1983 we now have two Tasmanias and finding common ground is getting harder. I inhabit both worlds. I’m involved with grassroots local football (AFL) and attend every Saturday and I also have good friends who are more in the Arts/environmentalist sphere and it’s easy to see how they see the same issues so differently. They argue incessantly on social media and will never see eye to eye. Not sure what the answer is.
The two Tasmanias is a north/south divide. The opportunities outside of Clark and Franklin are very limited. But the whole Capital City versus the rest of the state isnt a Tasmanian problem alone, its just that we have a 50/50 split on population, unlike everywhere except Qld. Qld at least has great economic opportunities outside of the capital if you want to go and get them, Tasmania does not. As an example, I took a pay cut to take on a higher level job when we move back from Brisbane to Hobart.
At the base of this is household economics. And the electorate is showing that, but the political parties havent come up with a solution, in fact are going in the opposite way.
@David – absolutely. If anything, Hare-Clark in this environment feels like it’s especially ineffective.
I love Tasmania, and actually considered moving there -but there are very few appropriate jobs, the pay is terrible AND the property situation in Hobart is horrific.
From those I know and talk to – who definitely skew toward me, professional, middle-class white collar etc etc, but they’re not all in Hobart – say some pretty common things in terms of how they see this election.
1. “We don’t want this election – it didn’t need to happen”
2. “Labor could have made this work, but they’re trying to have it their own way”
3. “We have massive issues with health, housing and basic services… but everyone is still fixated on this f***ing stadium” – my own view is the stadium needs to be massively scaled back and the investment redirected to health and education infrastructure… but I also think the AFL should be absolutely ashamed of themselves.
Based on this and what they’re hearing from their more diverse friends – the Liberals have lost the right to govern, but Labor hasn’t earned the right (and their approach in the lead up and the early part of the campaign made this even worse) – everyone expects the result to be clear as mud and wouldn’t be shocked if there’s not another election within the year. Even my Labor/Green voting friends down there would basically prefer a Liberal majority over a redo of the last year.
If the opinion polling is to be believed, the result on Saturday will be a mirror image of 12 months ago – a minority Liberal Government with the support of 3 or more independents. Which begs the question – did Dean Winter err in the first place by bringing on that motion of no confidence against the Premier? Because Labor, at least on the current evidence, won’t improve on the 10 seats they won in 2024, and even if they got to 11 seats – there’s no prospect of any deal with the Greens, because Dean Winter has ruled it out again and again. So Jeremy Rockcliff will carry on as Premier, and the stadium will be erected despite the opposition to it in Tasmania.
If Labor does badly on Saturday, Winter will have to go as leader, what are the alternatives to him? Oh, and exiling David O’Bryne from the ALP has come back to bite them, he’s a reliable independent supporter for the Liberal Government now, no doubt out of pure revenge against his former colleagues.
State Labor obviously thought the fantastic federal results on May 3 would translate into the state sphere – clearly not, it would seem.
For real change to come, the Greens must start to become more representative of the views of the whole population instead of just another fringe political party whose mission in life is to explain to most everyone else why they are wrong all the time. They would also have to signal ahead of time, and to act out in the event, a willingness to compromise in good faith.
I am not losing any sleep over either possibility.
Soz – I can’t blame the Greens for this one.
It really, really seemed like Labor was the dog chasing the car – they didn’t have a plan, strategy etc and frankly, didn’t even have a slogan until nearly a fortnight in?
Especially since the strong antipathy for the Greens among the trad Labor voters and especially within the more traditional organising base down there is much more stuck on the pretty catastrophic end of the Giddings Govt.
The core question I keep hearing is “Labor can’t have it both ways, how do you look like a serious alternative if you only want things on your own terms – it looks like you don’t respect the will of the electorate?” FTR – I understand the thinking, and the potential political consequences, but there’s playing the long game and knocking the chess pieces over and walking off in a huff.
Winter seems to have been saying in the last couple of days, sort of, that he’d be open to forming a government with the backing of the Greens in a way that doesn’t represent any sort of formal coalition or agreement. I think the Greens will be open to such a deal, but will require their pound of flesh re the stadium, salmon farming and forestry.
It will be an interesting negotiation, especially as I don’t think the two parties between them can hope to win any more than 16 seats, so they’ll need to win the support of two independents who will have their own agendas, and might not be as willing to compromise on the stadium from either perspective (eg, O’Byrne, who is strongly for it, or George and Garland, who are strongly against it, or Johnston, who seems to be mostly against it).
Meher Baba that sounds at least a little encouraging, hopefully something comes of it
I’ll formalise my prediction Saturday morning but I can’t see Labor getting more, or less, than 2 seats anywhere. So that’s 10
Greens are looking at anything from 5-7, I hope 7
Just needing 1 independent would make life easier
Meher Baba that sounds at least a little encouraging, hopefully something comes of it
I’ll formalise my prediction Saturday morning but I can’t see Labor getting more, or less, than 2 seats anywhere. So that’s 10
Greens are looking at anything from 5-7, I hope 7
Just needing 1 independent would make life easier
The only unknown is the accuracy of the DemosAU polling: for Pulse Media !
We’ll all know soon enough.
(but probably not on Saturday night)
Goll what have you got against Pulse Media? Any worse than The Mockery?
What sound advice – it’s all the fault of the Greens Political Party – who need to stop representing the people that vote for them (fringe)and start being more like Labor (centre / sensible).
Have to admire the rusted-on’s ability to deflect blame away from Labor to everyone else but…
New EMRS poll out reported in the Mercury, it would result in a very similar result to the last election if accurate. The major party 60-65% of the vote is breaking the Liberals way 37% to 26%. Still nowhere near enough for majority.
Boerwar, do you not see the irony in your comment at 3.28pm?
Labor will never win an outright majority in Tasmania under Duckworth-Lewis (sic). They cease to be a serious political party if they refuse to form the government the punters vote for.
———
A grand coalition is political suicide for Labor. It would work for the Libs. Why play into the hands of the right? Fools.
———
Suck it ALP or be in opposition 4 Eva!
The stuff from the Mercury. Thats one mad mess of an article to read.
The polling shows the government’s primary vote has lifted from 32 per cent to 37 per cent over the course of the election campaign, while Labor has dropped from 27 per cent to 26 per cent.
The Greens have remained steady on 14 per cent throughout the campaign and independents have declined from 20 per cent to 19 per cent of the stated primary voting intention.
As polling day nears, more than 100,000 Tasmanians have already cast their vote by pre-poll centre, postal vote by phone, up from 74,000 for the same period in 2024, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission said.
Franklin has the most early birds, with 21,168 votes cast so far, followed by Braddon with 21,355; Lyons, 20,595; Clark, 19,426, and Bass with 18,530.
https://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/libs-lead-but-minority-government-certain-emrs-poll-shows/news-story/2737fea36d6c09a77b705275e432a252
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/07/2025-tasmanian-polling-aggregate-v1.html 2025 Tasmanian Polling Aggregate V1
Lib 35 ALP 30.3 Grn 15.3 IND 14.9* Nat 2.5 SF+F 1.9
* adjusted for apparent method flaws in polling
Hoping to add more polling to this tomorrow! #politas
Would the greens offer confidence and supply without conditions?
The Greens haven’t clearly said they would offer unconditional confidence and supply but are in the situation that they voted no confidence in the previous government. So if they are unwilling to support Labor into office that would result in the Liberals being returned or another election being called, both of which would be their fault and make them look silly.
Equally the Greens would be silly to offer confidence and supply with no strings attached for a whole term. So what they could do instead is grant Labor confidence and supply for a limited period, for example. Or in the event of Rockliff digging in they can support a Labor no-confidence motion of the form ‘that this House has no confidence in Jeremy Rockliff as Premier and never has, and has confidence in Dean Winter’.
(At that point Winter should simply be appointed if willing but the Governor in 1989 did some silly stuff before appointing Field.)
New thread.