In addition to new posts on Saturday’s Tasmanian election and state polling numbers for Queensland, there is the following:
• Gisele Kapterian, the Liberal candidate who fell 26 votes short against independent Nicolette Boele in Bradfield, has announced she will launch a Court of Disputed Returns appeal against the result. The accompanying media statement indicates that Kapterian will seek revisions to formality rulings for ballot papers that were reserved for the adjudication of the returning officer, as was done after the 2007 election by Labor’s Rob Mitchell following his 12-vote defeat at the hands of Liberal member Fran Bailey in McEwen. On that occasion, the court re-examined 643 ballot papers and admitted 76 votes for Bailey and 66 for Mitchell that had originally been deemed informal, while excluding seven votes for Mitchell and two for Bailey, with the effect that Bailey’s winning margin in fact increased to 27. The court’s determinations were used as the basis for revised AEC guidelines on formality, which should in theory have meant future court rulings producing fewer changes. Should the court make enough revisions in Kapterian’s favour, it could either declare her the winner (though it seems few expect this) or void the result and send the voters of Bradfield back to the polls. Climate 200 has been spruiking polling suggesting a clearer win for Boele should that transpire.
.png){kind=link}
• DemosAU has published results on federal and state voting intention in Queensland, the latter of which are covered in an earlier post. The federal results have Labor leading 53-47, compared with an election result of 50.6-49.4 in favour of the Coalition. The primary votes are Labor 35% (31.0% at the election), Coalition 31% (34.9%), Greens 12% (11.8%) and One Nation 13% (7.8%). The poll was conducted July 4 to 9 from a sample of 1027.
• The Australia Institute has a YouGov poll finding 49% saying the AUKUS agreement makes Australia more safe and 20% less so, but that 66% favour a parliamentary inquiry into the matter (it was first put to respondent that “reviews” had been announced by the US and UK, with only 12% opposed. The poll was conducted June 27 to July 3 from a sample of 1522.
Upnorth – A Labor Partisan says:
Sunday, July 20, 2025 at 5:01 pm
China increasing its renewables but is it worth it?
….’
==============
It gives China a massive means of economic coercion over India and Bangladesh. India knows it and has done some relevant squawking. But not A-E. Apparently.
FWIW, China’s hydropower developments have had a shattering impact on China’s biodiversity. Ditto on that of Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam.
It’s been over a week, but there’s finally a new NEM record:
https://openelectricity.org.au/records/au.nem.battery_discharging.power.interval.high?datetime=2025-07-20T17_55_00&offset=10_00&focus=1752998100000
It’s more than twice as big then a year ago.
Collingwood didn’t just lose. They lost after leading almost the whole match and losing it in the final minutes. That really annoying loss – It made my day.
William Bowe says:
Sunday, July 20, 2025 at 5:56 pm
How about that local sports team.
______________________
Did you see that ludicrous display?.
Boerwar says:
Sunday, July 20, 2025 at 6:19 pm
Upnorth – A Labor Partisan says:
Sunday, July 20, 2025 at 5:01 pm
China increasing its renewables but is it worth it?
….’
==============
It gives China a massive means of economic coercion over India and Bangladesh. India knows it and has done some relevant squawking. But not A-E. Apparently.
FWIW, China’s hydropower developments have had a shattering impact on China’s biodiversity. Ditto on that of Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam.
中华人民共和国
And Thailand BW. Lots of concern here about what’s happening upstream.
Stone the Crows. What’s happening to the Goldies?
Collywobbles abound.
Newspoll tonight Nadia?
@nadia88 says: Sunday, July 20, 2025 at 6:01 pm
Welcome back nadia88, I’m interested to see your readings on several polls, especially the closer we get to certain elections (e.g., NSW, VIC, QLD, Federal)
On the topic for the IND vote which is around 8% (which doesn’t seemed to have changed since the last poll, which overstated it by 1%), what would be your reading of the current fates of the Teals (sitting MPs, Daniels or prospective candidates) based off this poll?
You correctly called Zoe Daniels losing Goldstein (maybe not so much with Fowler, but everyone on PB was saying Dai Le would lose Fowler so I’ll let that slide) so maybe your more bullish attitudes against independents might be a useful mindset to adopt for future elections.
Also ik it’s way too early to make predictions, but some self-reflection and preparation for the future won’t hurt 😛
I don’t mind the pies. Other than that corporate stooge McGuire who fooled their supporter base into leaving VP, they’ve been a good club with a good social conscience and a fun rival for my mob the baggers.
William Bowe @ #1784 Sunday, July 20th, 2025 – 5:56 pm
How about that local sports team.
——————————————
They made the world a better place today 🙂
Collingwood haters make me smile. By their hate we know our greatness.
Gold Coast Bums.
Thanks fess/Vlad/Rex & paulA,
Not too sure if we have a Newspoll tonight. Parliament opens on Tuesday, and sky has a tendency to drop a poll just before parliament opens, so I suppose we’ll find out in about 3 hrs.
As you know, I’m always up for a poll. Resolve was handy tonight, but yes hopefully the first Newspoll this electoral cycle.
Howdy too, to Mavis, Been There & Dr.D, if you are still on the site.
Catch up, I suppose, in about 3 hrs.
Hi Nadia
Great to see you back. You did a great job in the lead up to the election.
40% Lib primary in Tassie, a fresh Resolve poll, and the scent of a newspoll tonight, and……. nadia88 bobs up for another round of ALP primary vote death-riding.
Love it
Hi Nadia
Nice to see you back.
Hack summed up P1 completely earlier today.
After that, nothing needs to be said forevermore!
Keep that embedded in your mind any one that intends to engage with P1.
Cheers Hack.
Good to see you back, Nadia.
Israel hunger games shooting continues with impunity. Where is NATO Secretary General Rutt’s threat to Israel to impose sanctions let alone secondary Tarriffs on Israel?
India rejects NATO chief’s threat of secondary sanctions over ties with Russia, cautions against ‘double standards’
India said asserted that its energy procurement from Russia is based on national interests and market dynamics.
https://www.livemint.com/news/india-rejects-nato-chiefs-threat-of-secondary-sanctions-over-ties-with-russia-cautions-against-double-standards-11752771687200.html
Been There @ #1818 Sunday, July 20th, 2025 – 6:47 pm
Some people can handle the truth and some cannot. ‘Twas always thus.
The Hanrahans and the Happy Clappers have very different methods, but ultimately the same goal – to disguise the reality that Australia is nowhere near meeting our emissions targets, and that we are still contributing to the problem, not contributing to the solution.
The Torres Strait Islanders and Tuvalu have found out the hard way. Who’s going to be next? More Pacific Islanders? Or will it be the beachside suburbs of Sydney or Melbourne?
40 year low says The Australian -libs polling.Newspoll now.
Seat warmers in charge at moment will be removed from libs leadership closer to fed election.
Currently, Manufacturing accounts for around 6% of Australia’s Gross Domestic Product and trending downwards as per ABC News graphics
meherbaba posted that Tas Labor campaign was targeted towards ‘blue collar’ job voters
That alone will not win election for Labor. We know that from Menzies-Holt-Gorton-Mcmahon Liberal era.
During that Manufacturing was way over 30%.
“Core support for the Coalition has collapsed to the lowest point in 40 years following Labor’s convincing election victory, despite poor approval ratings for Anthony Albanese’s leadership at the start of his government’s second term.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian – the first to test the electoral mood since the May 3 election – also shows that primary vote support for both major parties has fallen to an historical trough of 65 per cent.
When preference flows are factored in, Labor has extended its two-party-preferred lead of 55.2-48.8 per cent at the election to 57-43 per cent over the Coalition.
This is the equal highest lead for Labor on this measure since August 2022, reflecting a 1.8 percentage point increase on its election result, which produced its highest number of seats in parliament. This is on the back of a 1.4 percentage point improvement in Labor’s primary vote to 36 per cent.
Support for the Coalition has suffered a further decline since it recorded its lowest ever election primary vote of 31.8 per cent.
Its primary vote now stands at 29 per cent.
This is the worst recorded primary vote for the Liberal/Nationals parties since Newspoll first compared primary vote levels across the federal parties in November 1985.
It is also 11 points down on the Coalition’s recent peak of 40 per cent just eight months ago, when the Albanese government was considered to be heading towards a potential election defeat.
While some of the Coalition’s vote has transferred to the Labor column, there has also been a drift on the right to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, which has gained 1.6 percentage points to 8 per cent.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-coalition-vote-collapses-as-labor-snags-a-second-honeymoon/news-story/f511fc58eac90093dddcf9f7939231a4?amp
If only Australia would save the Tuvaluans by cutting its emissions, you know it makes sense !!
“The first Newspoll conducted after the 2022 election saw Mr Albanese’s approval rating soar to 61 per cent.
Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s approval ratings are consistent with newly elected opposition leaders, with 23 per cent of voters not committing to a view of the relatively unknown leader.
Approval of Ms Ley’s performance after two months in the job is at 35 per cent, which is two points lower than Peter Dutton’s approval rating at the same point in the cycle of his leadership.
Disapproval of Ms Ley’s performance was 42 per cent, which is broadly in line with the 41 per cent recorded by Mr Dutton in the first Newspoll after the 2022 election.
Mr Albanese retains a commanding lead as the preferred prime minister on 52-32 over his rival, but this is a better number for Ms Ley compared with Mr Dutton in his first outing as Liberal leader when Mr Albanese led him by 59-25 on this measure.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-coalition-vote-collapses-as-labor-snags-a-second-honeymoon/news-story/f511fc58eac90093dddcf9f7939231a4?amp
Oh dear. Coalition PV sub 30%. How will a certain clutch of Bludgers cope! 😆
Confessionssays:
Sunday, July 20, 2025 at 7:24 pm
This is the worst recorded primary vote for the Liberal/Nationals parties since Newspoll first compared primary vote levels across the federal parties in November 1985.
It is also 11 points down on the Coalition’s recent peak of 40 per cent just eight months ago, when the Albanese government was considered to be heading towards a potential election defeat.
Oh dear. Coalition PV sub 30%. How will a certain clutch of Bludgers cope!
中华人民共和国
Oh the humanity!
2 countries British and Irish Rugby team called Lions defeats Australia and they think that is great. Shaking my head emoji.
Upnorth:
And boy can you tell the Oz is really dirty about this because they are still referencing those glory months when Peter Dutton was bound for victory!
Oh gosh goes better Confessions.
“The Australian Government has made significant progress over the past year in implementing and delivering new policies designed to reduce emissions. The expanded Capacity Investment Scheme, reformed Safeguard Mechanism and New Vehicle Efficiency Standard are now in place or will start soon. The government’s $22.7 billion Future Made in Australia package of measures, announced in the 2024–25 Budget, seeks to facilitate major new private sector investment in the emerging clean industries that can power Australia’s next era of prosperity.
These and other government policies have improved the prospects of cutting emissions in line with Australia’s 2030 emissions reduction target.”
https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2024-11/2024AnnualProgressReport.pdf
Flesh wound numbnuts!
Confessionssays:
Sunday, July 20, 2025 at 7:29 pm
Upnorth:
And boy can you tell the Oz is really dirty about this because they are still referencing those glory months when Peter Dutton was bound for victory!
中华人民共和国
And with Uncle Rupert up to his armpits in Alligators in the US they might be struggling even more.
”
pied pipersays:
Sunday, July 20, 2025 at 7:18 pm
40 year low says The Australian -libs polling.Newspoll now.
Seat warmers in charge at moment will be removed from libs leadership closer to fed election.
”
PP
If Sussan Ley is a seat warmer, then who is the messiah in the current Liberal lot?
New thread.
”
pied pipersays:
Sunday, July 20, 2025 at 7:33 pm
Flesh wound numbnuts!
”
LOL PP.
Mavis
Love it!
A hallmark of the academics places I worked was that people turned up without shoes, with holes in their clothing, and proud of the fact that they had not washed their hair in a couple of years.
One of the very interesting things to note was that when they needed a real job, they could quickly put their hands on a haircut and a suit (and I say this as being female – I certainly eventually acquired suits!).
It was quite funny watching how dreadlocked Combi surfy Jamie suddenly became a spokesperson for the WA government.
So, basically, most of us understood that you needed to play-act at being respectable, but in academia, there used to be the idea that if you were really good at what you did, you could thumb your nose at the norms, à la Einstein.
About 10 years ago, I was at the Redfern Park Saturday markets (alas, a victim of COVID), and I saw a rather unkempt fellow, with shabby clothes. He must have pinged my uncanny valley radar, because I thought “You are either homeless, or an academic”.
His female partner and daughter the turned up, carrying Belvoir Street theatre cotton bags, and so he was put in the academic category.
But, looking back on all of the above, it is probably not helpful to anyone to encourage people to join the grungy elite to advertise their academic credentials.
“nadia88 says:
Sunday, July 20, 2025 at 6:01 pm
Latest Resolve Poll (the 1st since the election).
{Comparison figures with the election result}.
* ALP 35% (down 0.5)
* LNP 29%. Ohhhh, golly gosh. Sub _ _. Moving on, (down 2.8)”
______
Baked in.
Does your return precede that of L’twit?
Assuming no foul play, I don’t think Mamdani has much to worry about. He’s very good at parrying culture war garbage.
Meanwhile the midterms aren’t looking as optimistic as they should:
https://x.com/forecasterenten/status/1978469463415755117?s=46&t=K6FGbp50eRxca8zB8gIl_A