Miscellany: Bradfield challenge, Queensland and AUKUS polling (open thread)

A legal challenge to the result in Bradfield confirmed, plus a poll finding federal Labor in a still stronger position post-election in Queensland.

In addition to new posts on Saturday’s Tasmanian election and state polling numbers for Queensland, there is the following:

• Gisele Kapterian, the Liberal candidate who fell 26 votes short against independent Nicolette Boele in Bradfield, has announced she will launch a Court of Disputed Returns appeal against the result. The accompanying media statement indicates that Kapterian will seek revisions to formality rulings for ballot papers that were reserved for the adjudication of the returning officer, as was done after the 2007 election by Labor’s Rob Mitchell following his 12-vote defeat at the hands of Liberal member Fran Bailey in McEwen. On that occasion, the court re-examined 643 ballot papers and admitted 76 votes for Bailey and 66 for Mitchell that had originally been deemed informal, while excluding seven votes for Mitchell and two for Bailey, with the effect that Bailey’s winning margin in fact increased to 27. The court’s determinations were used as the basis for revised AEC guidelines on formality, which should in theory have meant future court rulings producing fewer changes. Should the court make enough revisions in Kapterian’s favour, it could either declare her the winner (though it seems few expect this) or void the result and send the voters of Bradfield back to the polls. Climate 200 has been spruiking polling suggesting a clearer win for Boele should that transpire.

• DemosAU has published results on federal and state voting intention in Queensland, the latter of which are covered in an earlier post. The federal results have Labor leading 53-47, compared with an election result of 50.6-49.4 in favour of the Coalition. The primary votes are Labor 35% (31.0% at the election), Coalition 31% (34.9%), Greens 12% (11.8%) and One Nation 13% (7.8%). The poll was conducted July 4 to 9 from a sample of 1027.

• The Australia Institute has a YouGov poll finding 49% saying the AUKUS agreement makes Australia more safe and 20% less so, but that 66% favour a parliamentary inquiry into the matter (it was first put to respondent that “reviews” had been announced by the US and UK, with only 12% opposed. The poll was conducted June 27 to July 3 from a sample of 1522.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,840 comments on “Miscellany: Bradfield challenge, Queensland and AUKUS polling (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 37
1 2 … 37

  1. In a statement posted on her Instagram account on Monday night, Kapterian said: “After careful consideration of the two different results of the counts in Bradfield, we have taken the decision to go to the umpire.”
    ____________
    No, there was only ONE result. The automatic recount was conducted under extreme scrutiny and adjudication.

  2. Does the Sore Loser in Bradfield, who thinks the Liberal Party and her should be entitled to the seat, not realise that carrying on like a Sore Loser will only piss off her electorate should a barrister (Gladys’ boo?) twist the arm of the judge to award the seat to Giselle, and give Nicolette Boele the best motivation she could have ever hoped for to run again and likely win in a landslide next time?

  5. C@tmomma it would be a shock if the court reversed the result, surely they would order a new by-election in these circumstances, assuming they have concerns? I suppose it depends on the nature of the disputes around the disputed ballots.

    I was going to delete this because it was addressed directly in William’s post which I somehow didn’t read, but I think I’ll just leave it here as a warning to others not to make my mistake.

  8. I’d be very surprised if the Liberals could win a by-election in Bradfield, voters don’t like being forced back to the polls, just look at how badly Labor is polling in Tassie

    Their hope would be that they can turn the result over when the contested ballots are reviewed again, or do they look at them all again? Seems like wishful thinking but see how it goes

  9. Well observed by David French:

    Once Trump leaves office, there will be no one left to end the internal arguments and direct everyone to fall in line. If the Democrats have a problem of too many purity tests, Republicans will soon experience the consequences of putting together a coalition that may have too few. In red America, you can believe anything so long as you support Trump.

    Remove that man, and only the grievances remain, and many of MAGA’s grievances are against other Republicans. The GOP coalition contains pro-vaccine and anti-vaccine factions, internationalists and isolationists, normie Republicans and wild conspiracy theorists.

    Republican ideological diversity is its temporary strength. It could build a tent big enough to win very close to a majority of the popular vote. But by pulling a critical mass of disgruntled Americans into one party, Republicans have created a culture of constant conflict, and those conflicts are often rooted in completely false beliefs about American life.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/epstein-links-still-haunt-trump-and-the-maga-mob-s-getting-restless-20250714-p5meoo.html

  11. Donald Trump threatened to punish Russia’s main trading partners with 100 per cent tariffs if Vladimir Putin does not sign a peace deal to end the war in 50 days.
    he US president warned of “very severe tariffs” on countries such as China and India unless the Russian president came to the negotiating table.
    “We’re going to be doing secondary tariffs. If we don’t have a deal in 50 days, it’s very simple, and they’ll be at 100 per cent,” Mr Trump told reporters in the Oval Office in a move designed to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing.
    Mr Trump also promised to send billions of dollars of military equipment to Ukraine in a deal paid for by other Nato countries. He said the weapons would be “top-of-the-line” but did not specify what they would be. Sources said long-range missiles may be part of the package.
    Sitting with Mark Rutte, the Nato Secretary General, in the Oval Office, the US president told reporters that he was disappointed in Putin, whom he suggested was “all talk” about ending the war. “I’ve been hearing so much talk. It’s all talk. It’s all talk, and then missiles go into Kyiv and kill 60 people,” he said.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2025/07/14/trump-tells-putin-sign-peace-deal-50-days-face-100pc-tariff/

  12. Once an independent is elected, they tend to be hard to dislodge. If Ms Boele isn’t challenged, the Liberals could well be thinking that she has a good chance of retaining the seat in 2028 and beyond. My guess is that the Liberals have decided to take a punt on getting the seat back, which may hopefully (from their point of view) mean they can resume their forever hold on Bradfield.

    Just my guess, of course.

  13. “Lawfare” is only bad when done by the “wrong” people (i.e. left wing, environmentalists or those supporting “woke” causes, etc…).

  14. “The key players in Australia’s most lucrative industry and their biggest customer are on the same page about the importance of ‘green’ iron, according to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

    The nation’s iron ore producers are jostling to stay relevant as China looks to cut down on its emissions amid pollution concerns in the Middle Kingdom. Beijing wants its steelmakers to decarbonise as part of this broader policy initiative.

    The likes of BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue are studying ways to transform the iron ore they extract from Western Australia’s ground into iron using renewable energy sources, a product termed ‘green’ iron, which will then be shipped to China to make ‘green’ steel.”

    https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/green-iron-ties-stronger-after-meeting-between-china-and-australias-four-biggest-iron-ore-miners-says-albo-c-19349788?

    Australia produces 31% of the world’s iron ore but only 0.3% of the world’s iron.

  15. World News & Politics Patrol:

    EU warns that its trade with the US could be effectively wiped out if Trump follows through on his threat: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/07/14/business/europe-us-trade-tariff-wipe-out-intl

    Houthi official says fighting will continue ‘until Israel is erased’: https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sk6xq00wixe

    ‘Moscow Won’t Stop Unless It’s Stopped by Force’ – Zelensky Warns in High-Stakes Talks With Kellogg: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/56268

    Spain and Ireland to join more than 20 states to declare ‘concrete measures’ against Israel: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/spain-and-ireland-join-more-20-states-declare-concrete-measures-against-israel

    IDF eliminates Hamas terrorist who held Emily Damari hostage: https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/411642

    Trump sets 50-day tariff deadline for Russia to end war in Ukraine: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-war-trump-rutte-1.7584415

    Malaysia lashes out at Trump’s pick of ‘Zionist’ envoy Nick Adams: ‘not welcome here’: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/people/article/3318096/malaysia-lashes-out-trumps-pick-zionist-envoy-nick-adams-not-welcome-here

    Iran’s Army Makes New Threat: “War for 10 Years”: https://www.newsweek.com/iran-army-ten-years-war-military-boost-president-pezeshkian-2098552

    Russia to import 1 million skilled workforce from India: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/nri/work/russia-to-import-1-million-skilled-workforce-from-india/articleshow/122437135.cms

    Rugby schoolgirl punished for wearing Union flag dress and celebrating British heritage at school’s cultural day: https://www.warwickshireworld.com/community/rugby-schoolgirl-punished-for-wearing-union-flag-dress-and-celebrating-british-heritage-at-schools-cultural-day-5223621

    First poll including new Corbyn party released: REF: 34% CON: 17% LAB: 15% Corbyn/Sultana party: 15% LDM: 9% GRE: 5% (GB Politics)

    Trump Kept Gold Club World Cup Trophy for Himself So FIFA Had to Give the Winners a Replica: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-kept-gold-club-world-cup-trophy-for-himself-so-fifa-had-to-give-the-winners-a-replica/

    Trump Admits Melania Told Him Putin is Talking BS on Ukraine: https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-gives-vladimir-putin-a-50-day-ultimatum-on-ukraine/

    The Department of Justice on Monday asked the Supreme Court to deny Jeffrey Epstein associate Ghilaine Maxwell’s appeal of her sex-trafficking conviction, a move that comes as the department has recently come under fire for its handling of Epstein’s case files: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/doj-rejects-ghislaine-maxwells-appeal-scotus-response

    US imposes a 17% duty on fresh Mexican tomatoes in hopes of boosting domestic production: https://www.sfgate.com/business/article/us-imposes-a-17-duty-on-fresh-mexican-tomatoes-20769789.php

    Obama Slams Democrats for Being in ‘Fetal Positions’ as He Calls for Left to ‘Toughen Up’ Against Trump: https://www.latintimes.com/obama-slams-democrats-being-fetal-positions-he-calls-left-toughen-against-trump-586745

    Disabled veteran, a US citizen, released without charges after taken during Camarillo raid: https://abc7.com/post/disabled-veteran-george-retes-taken-during-camarillo-raid-released-union-says/17115884/

  16. England beats India by 22 runs in the Third Test. The WI score of 27 runs is the second-lowest in Test history, just ahead of New Zealand’s score of 26 runs against England at Eden Park, Auckland in 1955.

  17. #weatheronPB
    Sweet cool air surrounds,
    as the strong embrace tightens,
    and seeps past my guard.

    But with childish joy,
    my small clouds puff from me, and
    I have the last laugh.

    Because I know how,
    it’s so snug and warm inside,
    where she waits for me.

  18. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Tuesday, July 15, 2025 at 7:42 am
    Donald Trump threatened to punish Russia’s main trading partners with 100 per cent tariffs if Vladimir Putin does not sign a peace deal to end the war in 50 days.
    he US president warned of “very severe tariffs” on countries such as China and India unless the Russian president came to the negotiating table.
    “We’re going to be doing secondary tariffs. If we don’t have a deal in 50 days, it’s very simple, and they’ll be at 100 per cent,” Mr Trump told reporters in the Oval Office in a move designed to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing.

    Does any country care about Trump’s tariff threats any more?

    I’m surprised that Trump hasn’t announced a massive tariff on Australian goods in retaliation for Albo’s trade mission to China.

  19. ”I’m surprised that Trump hasn’t announced a massive tariff on Australian goods in retaliation for Albo’s trade mission to China.”

    Not yet anyway. Who knows what Trump will do.

  20. I’m not surprised QLD has swung hard to Federal Labor post-election. The Libs have gone from being led by a bloke from QLD to being led by a chick from NSW.

  22. GA

    “At risk of becoming Australia’s first climate refugees, Uncle Paul Kabai and Uncle Pabai Pabai filed the landmark case against the government in the Federal Court in 2021. They claim it failed to protect their homelands among the Torres Strait Islands from climate change.
    :::
    The Commonwealth has argued it is not legally required to consider the best available science or the impacts of climate change when setting emissions reduction targets.”

  23. Neoliberalism lite’ is no solution to Australia’s cost-of-living and productivity crises. We must curb wealth concentration

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jul/15/neoliberalism-lite-is-no-solution-to-australias-cost-of-living-and-productivity-crises-its-time-to-curb-wealth-concentration

    “With a national productivity roundtable on the horizon, Anthony Albanese is seeking answers to flagging economic performance, cost-of-living pressures and growing economic anxiety. But productivity debates rarely confront the elephant in the room: four decades of rising wealth concentration has coincided with Australia’s worst productivity performance in living memory.”

  25. Could permit High Street to revisit his theory about ALP wining Bradfield.

    Plus we can hear about tactical voting.

  28. I’d like to know if there’s a breakdown, and no doubt there is, of the booths where the Liberals did best in the new seat of Bradfield. Could they be in the old areas of Warringah? Whereas Nicolette Boele did better in Kylea Tink’s old stomping ground?

  29. Pegasus @ #22 Tuesday, July 15th, 2025 – 8:35 am

    GA

    “At risk of becoming Australia’s first climate refugees, Uncle Paul Kabai and Uncle Pabai Pabai filed the landmark case against the government in the Federal Court in 2021. They claim it failed to protect their homelands among the Torres Strait Islands from climate change.
    :::
    The Commonwealth has argued it is not legally required to consider the best available science or the impacts of climate change when setting emissions reduction targets.”

    You’d think this was satire. But sadly it is not 🙁

  31. “Mr Raby says China’s reliance on Australian iron ore will continue into the future, given the two governments have hammered out a framework for cooperation as China decarbonises.

    Mr Raby adds he sees this transition as a continuation of the current relationship but it’ll require a shift to using renewable energy to produce steel and ideally moving that manufacturing to Australia.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-15/asx-markets-business-live-news-july15-2025/105532220

  33. WI played to their only strength which are the Josephs (who are pretty good) by producing 19th century quality wickets.

  34. If there is a by-election in Bradfield I will vote for the Labor candidate if I thought that they had a realistic chance of winning. It’s very hard to see that. Labor has never come close to winning Bradfield, but some posters here think it possible. I’m also reading that Labor probably won’t run, which would mean that Labor doesn’t think it can win.

    In all likelihood I will vote for Ms Boele again. Hopefully this time she wins by far more than 26 votes.

  35. [‘The federal results have Labor leading 53-47, compared with an election result of 50.6-49.4 in favour of the Coalition.’]

    That’s hardly a ringing endorsement for Ley. And when will Dutton come out of hiding? I’ve not seen hide nor hair of him since May 3. He should publicly apologise for his less-than-stellar election campaign.

  36. C@tmomma/ NathanA from previous thread.

    I think it is reasonable that the PM be asked when he learned about the donations to” Advance”.

    If the answer is “Saturday” then that should probably be the end of it, but if the answer is “Last February before I appointed the envoy” then it could raise further questions about his judgement in making the appointment.

  40. I think that firing Ms Segal now would just compound any issues with Albo’s appointment of her to the role as antisemitism envoy. She should be given a fair go in the role and we’ll see how things work out.

  42. Morning all. Thanks for the International roundup HH. On this one:

    “ Trump sets 50-day tariff deadline for Russia to end war in Ukraine”
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-war-trump-rutte-1.7584415

    I am pleased that Trump resumed US supply of weapons to Ukraine (that other NATO countries have already paid for!) but Trump has been so inconsistent on tariffs that it is hard to know what if any effect this threat might have.

  43. “(it was first put to respondent that “reviews” had been announced by the US and UK)”

    The Australia Institute have really been trashing their brand with the obvious thumbs on the scale of their own polling (and being deliberately misleading when it still doesn’t do what they want, as with their polling on support for minority government in the week of the election).

    I don’t know who they think they’re impressing except the echo chamber.

  44. Cat

    “ Russia to import 1 million skilled workforce from India: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/nri/work/russia-to-import-1-million-skilled-workforce-from-india/articleshow/122437135.cms

    Are you happy to support Modi in this decision, Ven?”
    ——————————————————————
    I think it is fair to ask based on Modi’s record what he is getting in return for this? There is no indication India is getting much. Russia is notorious for treating and paying foreign workers poorly.

    That being said, the relative cold shoulder USA gave India through the cold war and even up to the 1990s, (as it tried to retain Pakistan as an ally) has really come back to bite the western world ever since.

  45. [‘President Donald Trump seems to have learned the lesson painfully gleaned by all his 21st-century predecessors: You can’t reset US relations with Vladimir Putin.

    Trump’s path from idolizing the Russian leader to berating him has been a melodrama of personalized geopolitics. But what happens next is far more important.

    The president’s epiphany offers new possibilities for Ukraine, Putin’s critics in Congress and America’s browbeaten allies. But it also comes with risk — most notably of a test of wills between alpha males Trump and Putin, who control the world’s two top nuclear arsenals.

    Trump always tries to up the ante with foreign friends and foes with rhetoric and tariffs. But now he’s up against a ruthless adversary who raises the stakes not with bluster, but with human lives, as intensifying drone blitzes on Kyiv — a clear message to the White House — show.

    Such is Trump’s transactional nature that it’s fair to ask how long his hostility toward his erstwhile friend in the Kremlin will last. And even though he’s talking about helping Ukraine defend itself, it’s hard to see his transformation extending to match the tens of billions of dollars in military and financial aid sent to Kyiv by the US Congress during the Biden administration.

    However, the president told NBC News on Thursday that he has secured a deal through NATO to send new Patriot anti-missile missiles to Kyiv that it badly needs to repel Russian attacks on civilian targets.

    “We’re sending weapons to NATO, and NATO is paying for those weapons, a hundred percent,” the president said. “We’re going to be sending Patriots to NATO and then NATO will distribute that,” he added. The exact parameters of the deal were not immediately clear, and CNN has reached out to the alliance.

    Trump seems to have reached a pivot point. He’s shifted from unfathomably blaming the victim of the war, Ukraine, to accusing the aggressor, Russia, of needlessly prolonging it.

    The question is, how does this change US policy on the war and on Russia, as well as Trump’s own attempts to exert US leadership and the domestic politics around Ukraine?’] – CNN

    A 50-day timeline before the imposition of sanctions gives Putin a lot of time to create far more havoc in Ukraine. But I guess it’s better than nothing.

  46. Soc,
    India is getting a very good deal on fossil fuels from Russia and military weaponry, as I understand it. Also, there is historical context of support from Russia for India in its past, iirc.

    And look, I get that India has a population of 1 billion + people and many poor mouths to feed, but it is also a fast improving society economically and I don’t see the need to cut economic corners and do dirty deals, done dirt cheap with Putin.

  48. The Reserve Bank governor, Michele Bullock, will address the first day of the talks, followed by the productivity commissioner, Danielle Wood, and the treasury secretary, Jenny Wilkinson.

    What a monumental day for Australian Women. 🙂

  49. Cat

    Thanks that explains it. Yes the historic context is what I was referring to between Russia and India.

    During the 1990s there were terrorist attacks from Pakistan into India including on the Indian parliament. As a minimum the Pakistani ISI did not stop them.

    The US response was fairly “meh” as they still wanted to keep Pakistan as an ally for military reasons. IMO this was a big mistake and Russia took advantage. It wasn’t until Hillary Clinton was Secretary of State that the USA finally started pushing back on Pakistani extremists within their government and intelligence agencies.

  50. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jul/15/neoliberalism-lite-is-no-solution-to-australias-cost-of-living-and-productivity-crises-its-time-to-curb-wealth-concentration

    Interesting, except an odd lack of numbers in the piece … perhaps because wealth is becoming LESS concentrated in Australia.

    https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/measuring-what-matters/measuring-what-matters-themes-and-indicators/prosperous/income-and-wealth-inequality

    “More recent data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey shows decreasing levels of wealth inequality in the years since 2019-20, with the Gini coefficient for equivalised household net worth decreasing from 0.609 in 2018-19 to 0.584 in 2022-23.”

Comments Page 1 of 37
1 2 … 37

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *