Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor; Resolve Strategic: 56-44 (open thread)

Predictably emphatic Labor leads from two pollsters returning to the field post-election, but dissonance on Sussan Ley’s personal ratings.

On the eve of the first sitting in parliament, two big poll series leap back into action:

• The Australian brings us a Newspoll finding that Labor leads 57-43 (55.2-44.8 at the election) from primary votes of Labor 36% (34.6% at the election), Coalition 29% (31.8%), Greens 12% (12.2%) and One Nation 8% (6.4%). Anthony Albanese leads Sussan Ley 52-32 as preferred prime minister and records 47% on both approval and disapproval, with Ley at 35% approval and 42% approval (the uncommitted balance being lower than I would have figured). Nothing yet in the way of field work dates and sample size, but it would have been Monday to Friday and around 1200 if previous practice has been maintained. UPDATE: Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1264.

• Nine Newspapers have the first Resolve Strategic poll since the election, showing Labor’s two-party lead at 56-44 from primary votes of Labor 35%, Coalition 29%, Greens 12% and One Nation 8%. Anthony Albanese leads 40-25 as preferred prime minister and has a combined very good and good rating of 45% and combined poor and very poor of 42%. Ley does quite a bit better here than in Newspoll with respective numbers of 38% and 29%, the four-way response option perhaps encouraging the vaguely committed in the gentle direction of “good”, as she was rated by 30%. Questions on outlook for the coming year record a marked disparity between personal circumstances (28% each for get better and get worse) and national outlook (25% better, 42% worse). Thirty-two per cent support and 33% oppose gender quotas for the Liberal Party, with the respective numbers for Coalition voters at 27% and 44%. The sample was 2311, with field work dates not identified. UPDATE: last Saturday, July 13, to Friday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,181 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor; Resolve Strategic: 56-44 (open thread)”

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  1. Wat Tyler @ #1141 Tuesday, July 22nd, 2025 – 10:31 pm

    I still remember the despair and hopelessness in the aftermath of the 2004 election. Especially when those Senate results were finalised. What made it worse was the instability of the post-election Latham leadership followed by the pissweak second Beazley era made it feel like hope was still very distant.

    Yeah, I felt the cruelty of Howard’s last term in 2006, I’d just finished high school in November 2005 and then two months later in January they were pretty much frogmarching me up for worthless “work for the dole” schemes, in which my pleas of “But I’m starting a TAFE course in February” were responded to with “Shut up.”

  2. And then, of course, a month later, Bush won re-election with the Republicans making significant gains in Congress and across the country. What a time of absolute despair.

  5. Asha @ #1150 Tuesday, July 22nd, 2025 – 10:08 pm

    Wat:

    Wasn’t there a quote from a senior Labor figure at the time to the effect of:

    “This is a disaster. We are going to need at least two terms to get back into government.”

    Yeah, I remember comments to that effect. Couldn’t remember who it was but I remember the sentiment.

  7. Wat:

    And, of course, me being a young man at the time who was especially pissed at the Iraq War, supporting Latham more because of how critical he was of the war and Bush (I’m sorry I didn’t have the magical ability to tell he would be a creepy fascist One Nation member two decades later), I really resented the country for resoundingly voting the way it did.

    I was too young to vote at the time, but otherwise I was in exactly the same position.

  8. And, of course, let’s not forget “The next Liberal PM isn’t in parliament yet” (or was it “hasn’t been born yet”?) after 2007.

  10. Upnorth
    Just saw it but you picked the trivia and missed the main prize.
    In the 1848 elections of the NSWLC prior to self government the electors of the Port Philip area staged a protest aimed at separation by nominating highly unlikely characters. Earl Grey was elected but Wellington, Palmeston, Brougham, Russell and Peel all missed out., each getting a miserable 4% (or 17) votes

  11. Kirsdarke @ #1151 Tuesday, July 22nd, 2025 – 10:09 pm

    Wat Tyler @ #1141 Tuesday, July 22nd, 2025 – 10:31 pm

    I still remember the despair and hopelessness in the aftermath of the 2004 election. Especially when those Senate results were finalised. What made it worse was the instability of the post-election Latham leadership followed by the pissweak second Beazley era made it feel like hope was still very distant.

    Yeah, I felt the cruelty of Howard’s last term in 2006, I’d just finished high school in November 2005 and then two months later in January they were pretty much frogmarching me up for worthless “work for the dole” schemes, in which my pleas of “But I’m starting a TAFE course in February” were responded to with “Shut up.”

    While I am not going to say it’s better now but I remember being on the dole back in those days and having to deal with the most psychotic people. Especially the middle aged ones who’ve spent their whole life being easily employed, who weren’t used to the idea that walking into a shop or a factory and saying “Can I have a job?” and getting one then and there wasn’t really a thing anymore (and that was before the modern HR complex.)

    The “trainers” were especially nasty. I remember one of them saying words to the effect of “Our job is to get you off the dole. You can either do that by getting a job, studying full time or getting kicked off by us for not fulfilling your obligations. It doesn’t make a difference to me which one happens.”

    If anyone ever saw the show The League of Gentlemen, the job search trainer from that was pretty true to life (albeit with a few exaggerations for comic effect)

  13. Asha @ #1157 Tuesday, July 22nd, 2025 – 10:14 pm

    And, of course, let’s not forget “The next Liberal PM isn’t in parliament yet” (or was it “hasn’t been born yet”?) after 2007.

    “Yeah. They’ll be around for a decade or so. That’s the typical length for an Australian Government nowadays. Rudd will be PM for around 10 years and they’ll probably let Gillard have a go after that, so we might have a female PM by the end of this. That’s exciting.

    Whoever the next Liberal PM is probably have to be a moderate and the party would need to be more modern and accept climate change as real. They’ve lost that fight. A climate change denier will be unelectable going forward.”

  14. ”
    Ashasays:
    Tuesday, July 22, 2025 at 5:19 pm
    But, yeah, it wouldn’t surprise me if a significant portion of the Palestinian population does support Hamas to some extent, considering the vast majority of these very poor and uneducated people would have spent their entire lives being killed, bombed, and starved by their neighbours, and as such would be incredibly susceptable to propaganda from Hamas. It’s kind of hard to have a nuanced stance on international affairs when your house has been blown apart, your family all killed, and you haven’t eaten in a week.
    ”

    Even the well fed Americans fell for Trump and MAGA propaganda.

    Israeli fell to the Propaganda machine of Netanyahu and Likud party

    So, what chance Palestinians have?

  15. Wat:

    I still remember my absolute joy when Abbott won the Liberal leadership. I believe my exact words were: “Kevin Rudd must be laughing his arse off.”

  16. Wat Tyler @ #1157 Tuesday, July 22nd, 2025 – 10:47 pm

    Kirsdarke @ #1151 Tuesday, July 22nd, 2025 – 10:09 pm

    Wat Tyler @ #1141 Tuesday, July 22nd, 2025 – 10:31 pm

    I still remember the despair and hopelessness in the aftermath of the 2004 election. Especially when those Senate results were finalised. What made it worse was the instability of the post-election Latham leadership followed by the pissweak second Beazley era made it feel like hope was still very distant.

    Yeah, I felt the cruelty of Howard’s last term in 2006, I’d just finished high school in November 2005 and then two months later in January they were pretty much frogmarching me up for worthless “work for the dole” schemes, in which my pleas of “But I’m starting a TAFE course in February” were responded to with “Shut up.”

    While I am not going to say it’s better now but I remember being on the dole back in those days and having to deal with the most psychotic people. Especially the middle aged ones who’ve spent their whole life being easily employed, who weren’t used to the idea that walking into a shop or a factory and saying “Can I have a job?” and getting one then and there wasn’t really a thing anymore (and that was before the modern HR complex.)

    The “trainers” were especially nasty. I remember one of them saying words to the effect of “Our job is to get you off the dole. You can either do that by getting a job, studying full time or getting kicked off by us for not fulfilling your obligations. It doesn’t make a difference to me which one happens.”

    If anyone ever saw the show The League of Gentlemen, the job search trainer from that was pretty true to life (albeit with a few exaggerations for comic effect)

    Yeah, that’s pretty much what it was like in that environment. Once the TAFE course began in that year I wish I could have more forcefully presented the document saying I was no longer under their mercy without it being an assault, but I think they got the message.

  18. After all this talk of despair, I was going to make a reference to Despair of the Endless but, well, you think the JK Rowling stuff stings? The Neil Gaiman situation is way more upsetting.

  19. Oakeshott Country says:
    Tuesday, July 22, 2025 at 10:45 pm
    Upnorth
    Just saw it but you picked the trivia and missed the main prize.
    In the 1848 elections of the NSWLC prior to self government the electors of the Port Philip area staged a protest aimed at separation by nominating highly unlikely characters. Earl Grey was elected but Wellington, Palmeston, Brougham, Russell and Peel all missed out., each getting a miserable 4% (or 17) votes
    中华人民共和国
    Good one OC and glad you chimed in. I did specify Legislative Assembly in the Question but it is a decent prize!!!

    I take it that like John Bright, The Earl Grey also never took up his seat?

    Sorry must dash. Mrs Upnorth is patient but I am pushing the envelope. Good to hear from you cobber.

  21. TPOF

    Olmert has called the ‘humanitarian city’ plan a concentration camp, and he’s a former Israeli PM. Of course there were other concentration camps beyond the Nazis, eg Churchill’s camps in SAfrica, and Gaza isn’t an extermination camp. But its indefensible.

    Apologies to WB for commenting on this subject

  24. ”
    Pegasussays:
    Tuesday, July 22, 2025 at 8:17 pm
    Ven says

    “But Bob Brown is not irrelevant because he influences people like Astrobleme, Pegasus, Rex, P1 and many others like them”

    Mind reading again? Why do you make these sorts of comments?

    I commented on PB many moons ago that I was glad when Bob Brown was replaced as leader of the Greens.
    ”

    You did!
    I didn’t know that.
    From your comments on Bob Brown positions on various topics, I thought you support him

  25. I don’t expect Albanese to do a Newman so Labor is ok for another term. But only the brave would predict how an Australian population would vote two terms out.

  26. Davidwh:

    Between Labor’s huge majority, the Liberals’ mediocre leadership contenders, and an electoral pendulum that heavily favours the government, it will be very difficult for the Coalition to win in 2028.

    But it certainly isn’t impossible. Anything can happen in three years.

  27. I’m reminded of some words of wisdom I once received: It doesn’t matter what size majority anyone has before an election, the amount of seats everyone has at the beginning of the election is zero.

  28. [Green’s co-founder Drew Hutton has responded to his expulsion from the party, saying the Greens have lost focus on environmental issues and become “authoritarian and aggressive”.

    He claimed the party had become “unlikeable” and there was evidence it was impacting their support amongst voters.

    Mr Hutton was expelled from the party at the weekend for refusing to delete transphobic comments made by others commenting on a Facebook post he made in 2022.

    In an interview with 7.30, Mr Hutton claimed the party refuses to allow frank debate on its transgender policy, which states people have “the right to their self-identified gender”.

    “What I disagree with vehemently is the way that anybody who actually voices any dissent with that policy and do so from a credible position, that there is such a thing as biological sex and there are two sexes, is forced out of the party,” Mr Hutton said.’] – Aunty

    No matter the issue, it’s shocking how the Greens treat their own; whose next on the chopping block – surely not Bob Brown? Are the Greens heading down a similar path to the Democrats? Peg, you must be concerned with this event.

  31. I see Barmy Banana has introduced his net zero repeal bill to parliament. Here’s hoping Labor does a Vogon on it (thank you HHGttG): “…without an order, signed in triplicate, sent in, sent back, queried, lost, found, subjected to public enquiry, lost again, and finally buried in soft peat for three months and recycled as firelighters.”

    @10.09 am
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/jul/28/australia-politics-live-question-time-anthony-albanese-sussan-ley-palestine-gaza-university-education-degree-childcare-abuse-kate-chaney-ntwnfb

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