DemosAU has some rare and precious polling to offer on attitudes to the electoral system and democracy in general, including finding that narrow 53-47 majorities favour both the existing system of compulsory preferential voting and the alternative of optional preferential voting over the worst electoral system in the world, first-past-the-post, which inevitably scores better than it deserves owing to the virtue of simplicity and a sense many have that preferences are harmful to their own side of politics. Compulsory was favoured over optional preferential voting by a similarly slender margin of 54-46. Proportional representation did less well, trailing compulsory preferential by 60-40, optional preferential 59-41 and first-past-the-post 54-46, though the concept would not have been well understood and the survey question did not endeavour to explain it.
Results to a range of other questions reflected the election result’s broader theme of satisfaction with the Australian status quo as compared with the cautionary tale of the United States, most explicitly in that 71% disagreed that Australia “needs a Prime Minister like Donald Trump”, with 19% agreeing. Seventy-five per cent expressed trust that votes were counted fairly compared with 13% for distrust, and 64% agreed the Australian Electoral Commission was independent and impartial, with 11% disagreeing. Only 23% agreed that 120,000 per cent of voters per member of the House of Representatives was too much, with 53% preferring the alternative proposition that “the number of MPs should not be increased”. The poll was conducted in two part, through “random device engagement ” and “conversational AI”, the former encompassing 1000 respondents on June 13 and 14 and the latter 713 from April 19 to 29.
Nine Newspapers also offers further results from the weekend Resolve Strategic poll showing 20% support for changing the GST rate, with 47 opposed; 31% support for reducing or abolishing negative gearing, with 26% opposed; and 36% supporting and 27% opposing reducing or abandoning capital gains tax concessions when inheriting or selling a property.
Elsewhere, the Court of Disputed Returns petition filed by Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian to challenge her 26-vote defeat by independent Nicolette Boele in the Sydney seat of Bradfield has been published. Out of the 795 ballot papers that were reserved for the determination of the Australian Electoral Officer, making them potentially subject to legal review, Kapterian argues that 56 were votes for her that were wrongly deemed informal, and 95 were informal votes that were wrongly admitted for Boele. The relief sought is simply that Kapterian should be declared the winner – the potential for the result to be declared void and a fresh election is held is limited by the fact that the Australian Electoral Commission believes there were only two cases of multiple voting, which carry the potential to render the true result unknowable. The court will presumably offer Boele the opportunity to raise objections of her own, such that succeess for Kapterian depends on the court making significantly more revisions in her favour than against. A video by constitutional law academic Anne Twomey gives the matter a thorough going-over, while political scientist Simon Jackman (who shares your correspondent’s interest in the matter as a consultant to Climate 200) argues the court should make use of machine learning by way of limiting human subjectivity in adjudicating on ambiguous handwriting.
Upnorth – I suspected that would be the case. Like a lot things which are illegal there are somehow easy to get.
On AUKUS the US review was due to be finished last Friday and there have been several commentaries released recently.
Stilgherian talks to Lowy Institute defense analyst Sam Roggaveen about AUKUS and compares it with the Echidna Strategy he advocates.
Roggaveen makes the obvious points that nuclear submarines of the types proposed are more suited to fighting China than defending Australia. Secondly that the details of building, maintaining and operating SSNs will require the ADF to work more closely with UK and USA forces than had been the trend before AUKUS.
https://stilgherrian.com/edict/00249/
This represents a victory for the “forward defence” strategy advocates over the “defence of Australia” strategy advocates.
Roggaveen goes over similar points here in The Monthly. Its a good short read.
https://www.themonthly.com.au/june-2025/essays/sub-text
And just on first speeches, I watched the first speech of Senator Michelle Ananda-Rajah – technically her second, as she made one 3 years ago as the Member for Higgins.
Championing medical research as part of Australia’s bright future.
B. S. Fairman says:
Monday, July 28, 2025 at 8:27 pm
Upnorth – I suspected that that would be the case. Like a lot things which are illegal there are somehow easy to get.
中华人民共和国
Nothing is illegal in Thailand – unless you get caught – and have the wrong lawyer.
Is a puzzlement!
中华人民共和国
This whole place is a puzzlement mate thus the Thai saying “Sabai Sabai” – relax, relax. Bit like “she’ll be right mate” in Oz – the difference here many times it’s wrong.
======================================================
Have you googled “Is a puzzlement!” then again might be better you don’t. As the what comes up first when I google it could get you in trouble. Maybe someone else in Australia can google it to confirm this?
Fess
Thanks -this is important!
Bludgeoned Westie says:
Monday, July 28, 2025 at 7:55 pm
@nadia88says: Monday, July 28, 2025 at 7:52 pm
“The Repeal “Bill” will fail very quickly.”
~~
It definitely will, but the reason why I’m giving it more light than it deserves is because I have a feeling that Joyce is trying to air out the dirty laundry of the Nationals and reveal who supports or opposes Littleproud’s leadership through a public vote on his bill.
==========
B-Westie & Boer,
Yes, I believe you are correct. I’ll add that I believe the Federal LNP is at a similar cycle to the U.S. Republicans around 2009 when the “Tea Party club” emerged. There is a base in both these parties who are determined to take control of the party and rid themselves of the so called “labor lite” forces. They need a leader of course, but one is yet to emerge. Eventually one will emerge.
Drawing parallels with the U.S republicans, they began to seize control of the party during the period 2009-2010, eventually helping the republicans pick up 63 seats at the 2010 mid terms.
They used their power to destroy John Boehner (a fellow republican), and continued on their way until they finally destroyed (de-selected) Liz Cheney from Wyoming.
Anyway, completely going off script for me.
Catch up for the next polls. Hopefully Essential and YouGov soon!
Stoogey Lurker @ #2440 Monday, July 28th, 2025 – 8:00 pm
“We demand to be taken seriously”
Entropy says:
Monday, July 28, 2025 at 8:32 pm
Is a puzzlement!
中华人民共和国
This whole place is a puzzlement mate thus the Thai saying “Sabai Sabai” – relax, relax. Bit like “she’ll be right mate” in Oz – the difference here many times it’s wrong.
======================================================
Have you googled “Is a puzzlement!” then again might be better you don’t. As the what comes up first when I google it could get you in trouble. Maybe someone else in Australia can google it to confirm this?
中华人民共和国
No I know it’s hat you mean matey. 100%. Buuuuut me not go there. The “Bangkok Hilton” isn’t pleasant this time of the year.
Omar Comin’, Stoogey Lurker
Thanks for the photo. Who needs quotas when you have diversity like that 😀
nadia88 @ #2460 Monday, July 28th, 2025 – 8:43 pm
That’s a leprechaun
“Team Katich says:
Monday, July 28, 2025 at 5:11 pm
For those amazed that the LNP are doubling down on election failings, I would suggest that the GOP, after losing twice to Obama with traditional respectable candidates, scrapped down into the bottom of the barrel to find electoral gold with Trump.
I would also suggest that the LNP method is tried and true – similar to what kept them in power through the A/T/M years and seemed to work well enough for Howard. Policies are for mugs. Culture wars, nationalism, populism, sniping, stirring – in todays MSM – works often enough and so much easier than a constructive battles of ideas and solutions. ”
C@t’s already replied on this, and I agree with her – I get that’s the way the Anguses and Canavans think, but at this point doing it ignores the huge evidence that Australians do not like Trump or that style of chaos (different culture, preferential voting, lack of huge religious right cult vote) and also the current ALP has learned the campaigning lessons of Hillary 2016 and Shorten 2019. It is simply not going to work for the Coalition.
Australia only voted for proto-Trump Abbott because the Labor government imploded and the media worked its arse off with the Libs selling the idea of Abbott as a reformed character. As soon as he tore off the mask post election Australia had major buyers’ remorse and Abbott didn’t last.
Thanks, Omar.
Spot on, Kirs. & Soc.
Pi@7.39 pm
Thanks. I will check this out.
Wow! Way more than what I need, but then by needs are basically just to replicate a Google search, and an academic search through something like NASA ADS (https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/)
But if I was looking to put an AI / LLM algorithmic search for, say, a who university, then 20 K sounds like a bargain.
Thanks. This is great insight into where this technology is going!
Have you googled “Is a puzzlement!” then again might be better you don’t. As the what comes up first when I google it could get you in trouble. Maybe someone else in Australia can google it to confirm this?
中华人民共和国
No I know it’s hat you mean matey. 100%. Buuuuut me not go there. The “Bangkok Hilton” isn’t pleasant this time of the year.
——————————————————
I get a bald bloke who looks to be in Kimono PJ’s.
Garth Hamilton sits in Liberal party room.
So that is 5 out of 20 Nats. Only 6 more and they can kick Littleproud in his littleproud.
SL
np, just add #image.jpg on the end of whatever the url of the image is
B. S. Fairmansays:
Monday, July 28, 2025 at 8:51 pm
Garth Hamilton sits in Liberal party room.
So that is 5 out of 20 Nats. Only 6 more and they can kick Littleproud in his littleproud.
——————————————————–
They can then bury him as a carbon offset.
Douglas and Milko says:
Monday, July 28, 2025 at 8:33 pm
Fess
“We use Co-Pilot at work because you can set the output to ‘work’ rather than ‘web’, thereby ensuring that whatever you’re plugging into the platform doesn’t end up on the internet.”
Thanks -this is important!
__________
Same. Copilot uses OpenAI i.e. ChatGPT. Cannot select models though. You can ask it not to hallucinate which is nice.
Gemini and Claude also have sandboxed environments for paid versions. Claude has the better writing style from what I can determine.
There is also Perplexity. I am not as familiar with it but I know a couple of academics that use it. Also not sure whether your data is used to train.
Now that the Parliament has officially opened for its first sitting after the federal election, we’re off to the races with redrawing the electoral map for the next federal election, expected in 2028. No rest for the wicked. The redistributions in this parliamentary term are expected to be much less dramatic than those seen in the previous term. It seems unlikely that any state will see a change in their entitlement of seats in the House of Representatives. If so, the only redistributions will be the four triggered due to seven years passing since the previous redistribution. Conveniently, this will mean that the four states and territories that did not redraw their boundaries will get a new map in this term, while the other four will be left alone.
In this post I will run through the timing of these processes, and the data we now have to give us a hint about how these redistributions will play out.
Under Australian law, the federal electoral boundaries for a state or territory will be redrawn for one of three reasons:
A change in that state’s entitlement to seats in the House of Representatives
Seven years has passed since the conclusion of the last redistribution.
The number of electors in at least one third of divisions deviates from the average enrolment by more than 10% for at least two months.
The third criteria has never been triggered, thanks to the AEC’s strict rules on drawing boundaries (more on that later).
Under the second rule, there are four jurisdictions due to commence redistributions this year. Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory all completed their last redistributions in 2018. The seven-year mark was reached earlier this year for Queensland and Tasmania, but those redistributions were deferred until after the federal election. South Australia and the ACT have both reached the seven year mark this month. So they should all start very soon.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/60950
Littleproud is about to oversee a repudiation of net zero by the Nats. On that issue he and Beetroot are on the same page. It’s like the game of charades around repudiating the voice. And they will attempt and probably succeed to drive the libs in the same direction.
Thinking about the ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, brokered by Malaysia, I think it is a good outcome in multiple respects.
We could point out the complete absence of USA from any negotiations. This is another example of the withdrawal of USA from its global policeman role.
Yet it is also encouraging for the future that Anwar Ibrahim, in his role as current chair(?) of ASEAN, has negotiated a ceasefire without outside influence. This is a maturing of ASEAN, which in the past has been more of a talkfest than a forum to resolve conflicts.
This is important for Australia because in terms of international forums, ASEAN is our closest neighbour. Australia is a lot safer in a region with a stable ASEAN.
@Kirsdarke – “Also I find it something of a laugh/cry situation that everything that these anti net-zero Coalition politicians say about renewable energy is actually what the fossil fuel energy industry is doing right now.”
It would be quite funny to bait them into complaining about lobbying for renewables and then put to them a list of ex Coalition MPs and staffers turned lobbyist for fossil fuels, but that’s one to keep in the back pocket while they are not in actual command of the Coalition.
subgeometersays:
Monday, July 28, 2025 at 9:02 pm
Littleproud is about to oversee a repudiation of net zero by the Nats. On that issue he and Beetroot are on the same page. It’s like the game of charades around repudiating the voice. And they will attempt and probably succeed to drive the libs in the same direction.
——————————————————————–
Next step is to remove Leys. In the LNP equivalent of the “Night of the Long Knives”. I think it will be known as the “Night of the Big Swinging Dicks”.
HB – Well, Tassie is only gone to change at the edges. It is still going to have 5 seats and they are only going to roughly cover the same areas.
Equally, the ACT is just likely to be a small adjustment. Canberra will get a little big physically as the outer areas have grown – More of Woden Valley will probably go in.
Queensland is likely to see a bit more action as some of the electorates are a bit heavy at the moment. Some of the peri-urban seats will become more suburban etc. Like Longman.
South Australia won’t be as politically significant as Labor holds most of the seats.
Entropy says:
Monday, July 28, 2025 at 8:48 pm
Have you googled “Is a puzzlement!” then again might be better you don’t. As the what comes up first when I google it could get you in trouble. Maybe someone else in Australia can google it to confirm this?
中华人民共和国
No I know it’s hat you mean matey. 100%. Buuuuut me not go there. The “Bangkok Hilton” isn’t pleasant this time of the year.
——————————————————
I get a bald bloke who looks to be in Kimono PJ’s.
中华人民共和国
Today being the Kings Birthday Holiday all I can say is Long Live the King and the Chakri Dynasty.
Mongut was very good King of Thailand and was one of the major reasons the Kingdom was never colonised like its neighbours.
But digger I beg for your mercy. I cannot entertain you further on this matter.
Socrates says:
Monday, July 28, 2025 at 9:04 pm
Thinking about the ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, brokered by Malaysia, I think it is a good outcome in multiple respects.
We could point out the complete absence of USA from any negotiations. This is another example of the withdrawal of USA from its global policeman role.
Yet it is also encouraging for the future that Anwar Ibrahim, in his role as current chair(?) of ASEAN, has negotiated a ceasefire without outside influence. This is a maturing of ASEAN, which in the past has been more of a talkfest than a forum to resolve conflicts.
This is important for Australia because in terms of international forums, ASEAN is our closest neighbour. Australia is a lot safer in a region with a stable ASEAN.
中华人民共和国
+1
Mongut was very good King of Thailand and was one of the major reasons the Kingdom was never colonised like its neighbours.
But digger I beg for your mercy. I cannot entertain you further on this matter.
—————————————————————
That’s fine, I’m trying to get Nath to make an appearance. So I’ve laid some scraps to tempt him.
Entropy says:
Monday, July 28, 2025 at 9:16 pm
Mongut was very good King of Thailand and was one of the major reasons the Kingdom was never colonised like its neighbours.
But digger I beg for your mercy. I cannot entertain you further on this matter.
—————————————————————
That’s fine, I’m trying to get Nath to make an appearance. So I’ve laid some scraps to tempt him.
中华人民共和国
Mention Orchids 🙂
Wrt the PHON senate net zero motion that Canavan and Antic backed:
“Only five out of the coalition’s 27 senators showed up for the motion, but one was in the chair and exercised his right not to vote, while Liberal senators Jane Hume and Andrew McLachlan voted against it.”
https://michaelwest.com.au/news/coalition-splinters-as-heat-rises-on-net-zero-policy/
Thanks again, Omar.
Upnorthsays:
Monday, July 28, 2025 at 9:19 pm
Entropy says:
Monday, July 28, 2025 at 9:16 pm
Mongut was very good King of Thailand and was one of the major reasons the Kingdom was never colonised like its neighbours.
But digger I beg for your mercy. I cannot entertain you further on this matter.
—————————————————————
That’s fine, I’m trying to get Nath to make an appearance. So I’ve laid some scraps to tempt him.
中华人民共和国
Mention Orchids
————————————————————–
That would be a little to subtle a reference for Nath I fear. So I raised his second favourite topic more obviously. Of course this post and previous also raise his favourite topic.
Quote: “If there’s anything around here more important than my ego, I want it caught and shot now!”
“That’s fine, I’m trying to get Nath to make an appearance. So I’ve laid some scraps to tempt him.”
Mention the past leader of the ALP who saw off two Coalition prime ministers last decade, that will do it, nath of an evening is usually posting while watching that man’s house with binoculars.
Thanks HH at 9PM.
I’m absolutely chuffed at those figures presented by Ben Raue.
My calculations from last week, were exactly the same on the division entitlements down to 2 decimal points. ie: 0.36 for QLD and 0.26 for WA.
I’m assuming Ben is a mathematician of some sort – I only completed Yr 12 maths – but I keep a record of the seat entitlement as a sort of silly hobby. Good to get vindication, and I gunned maths in Year 12 way back in 2003. Here was my post from a week ago if anyone wants to fact check it. He agrees also that QLD is unlikely to jag a 31st division at this point.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/07/20/newspoll-57-43-to-labor-resolve-strategic-56-44-open-thread/comment-page-6/#comment-4572187
Arkysays:
Monday, July 28, 2025 at 9:31 pm
“That’s fine, I’m trying to get Nath to make an appearance. So I’ve laid some scraps to tempt him.”
Mention the past leader of the ALP who saw off two Coalition prime ministers, that will do it, nath of an evening is usually posting while watching that man’s house with binoculars.
————————————————————-
Keep burleying or chumming the waters he’s bound to bite soon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I91DJZKRxs
Stoogey Lurker @ #2480 Monday, July 28th, 2025 – 9:24 pm
SL, Hanson was right: Cowards is what they are. Cowards. Well, good on Hume and whateverhisnameis I suppose.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/hanson-tests-coalition-resolve-on-net-zero-20250728-p5mi99.html
Has Peter Costello been rolled at the Age?
How dare they publish something critical of the LNP and its One Nation lapdog!
“Bean says:
Monday, July 28, 2025 at 6:30 pm
You gotta love the casual antisemitism thrown into an article about a baby announcement.
Calling it ‘an unlikely political pairing’? Calling him ‘a Jewish divorced dad’?
I think you’re seeing things that aren’t really there. Though I admit that ‘antisemitism’ is the word of the year thus far. If inappropriately applied.”
C@T its a bit like saying, an unlikely pairing, an Aboriginal Man and a Correctional Officer are having a baby.
It is ironic because georgie and josh are an unusual pairing but because of his politics, not his religion. Hopefully that explains why its kinda racist. Not 100% racist but on the scale somewhere
MABWM says:
Monday, July 28, 2025 at 10:29 pm
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/hanson-tests-coalition-resolve-on-net-zero-20250728-p5mi99.html
Has Peter Costello been rolled at the Age?
How dare they publish something critical of the LNP and its One Nation lapdog!
中华人民共和国
Wasn’t he punted when he lost it at Canberra airport in front of a gaggle of Journos?
Wow Bean I had the same reaction as C@tmomma to your original post but now with your elaboration, and going back to read the text of the original article, you are exactly right. If I were capable of shame I would probably be ashamed that I did not see it. Thanks for your perspective, it was most enlightening.
@upNorth, they punted him from Channel 9, but he keeps a malignant hand in at the rAge.
A despicable rogue!
Stay safe, cobber.
MABWM says:
Monday, July 28, 2025 at 10:59 pm
@upNorth, they punted him from Channel 9, but he keeps a malignant hand in at the rAge.
A despicable rogue!
Stay safe, cobber.
中华人民共和国
His nickname when he was in the House was “Dog”, and that came from his own side! I reckon there was a reason he pulled the pin when Howard lost – his own side didn’t want him.
You stay safe too cobber.
Yeah all good, I think I am just tuned to notice lower level racism like that because of my background. Just feels like its imply there is an inherent antagonism with being Jewish and someone being Pro-Palestine. It feels like it reduces being Jewish to being “anti-palestine” which is disgustingly reductive for a religion that is multi-faceted and complex. It is a religion based on learning, debating and understanding and has many many many traditions and schools of thought that vary from region to region, family to family, rabbi to rabbi.
I didnt even know Georgie was pro-palestine, only know her from that disgusting bit the Daily Telegraph did where they photoshopped her breasts. Still gives me the shits when I think about that, the casualty cruelty of it. An absolute disgrace of a company.
Yeah you read it and just subconsciously click “yep it would be normal for them to hate each other, how cute”, and the writer could presumably say “the two clauses of the sentence are not logically connected” if called out on it…lol.
“It’s an unlikely political pairing: She’s a vegan animal lover and he’s a red meat eating koala killer” would’ve been safe.
Sarah Ferguson must get annoyed having Labor ministers on because her gotcha attempts are utterly harmless. Just had Mark Butler on for 7 minutes and couldn’t lay a glove on him over PBS or Trump or Bulk Billing. He was batting away her Liberal talking points like a Indian middle order batter smashing their way to a century with Ferguson playing the role of Stokes rambling angrily while the game slipped away.
Ghost Of Whitlam if we take this metaphor to its logical conclusion, Richard Marles=Mitch Marsh
I sledge the ALP late at night when C@tmomma is hopefully not looking
”
Upnorthsays:
Monday, July 28, 2025 at 11:07 pm
MABWM says:
Monday, July 28, 2025 at 10:59 pm
@upNorth, they punted him from Channel 9, but he keeps a malignant hand in at the rAge.
A despicable rogue!
Stay safe, cobber.
中华人民共和国
His nickname when he was in the House was “Dog”, and that came from his own side! I reckon there was a reason he pulled the pin when Howard lost – his own side didn’t want him.
You stay safe too cobber.
”
Paul Keating called Peter Costello”all tip and no iceberg “
New thread.
If you take artworks and put it though a weighted network is the result plagiarism of multiple artworks or something new?
https://citynews.com.au/2025/student-revolt-against-ai-arts-course-at-top-university/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801