DemosAU: 59-41 to Labor (open thread)

The third pollster to take to the field since the federal election gives Labor its strongest result to date.

DemosAU has published its first federal poll since the election, producing Labor’s strongest result to date: a two-party lead of 59-41, compared with an election result of 55.2-44.8, from primary votes of Labor 36% (34.6% at the election), Coalition 26% (31.8%), Greens 14% (12.2%) and One Nation 9% (6.4%). The accompanying release has breakdowns by gender, age, education and residential tenure. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 1199.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,443 comments on “DemosAU: 59-41 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. TPOF

    I understand that the Holocaust refers to the murder of Jews in Europe by the Nazis, but it originally meant all 20 million people that were killed in concentration camps. I don’t know why it ended up only referring to Jewish people, but that’s how people describe it now.

    But saying it is antisemitic to refer to other genocides as a Holocaust is a bit weird.

  2. There does seem to be two English words the Israel lobby guard the usage of very Jealousy the “h” one and the “a” one. Which is strange considering Hebrew is their official language.

  3. TPOF it will be a long time before we can truly know how many casualties are, government buildings, libraries, hospitals, universities and other record keeping institutions have all been intentionally destroyed. And I dont really know what word you would use for the practice of intentionally destroyingsources of food production like bakeries, and forcing everyone to line up in narrow corridors lined with barbed wire and gunned down. I agree with you on a lot of things, like the hatred of the AFP (dogs), so I think if you really do feel strongly about the issue then please read more. Perhaps ironically, Israeli newspapers like Haaretz are very open about the war and often do great and revealing journalism. As for the stance that many Israeli’s oppose this.. I just don’t know. I want to believe you but even after two years its hard to ignore things like this

    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/64-of-israelis-believe-there-are-no-innocents-in-gaza-poll/3594355

    https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2025/05/30/poll-israelis-expel-palestinians-gaza-genocide/

    I dont link these to try and disparage a whole population or country, but because these are the people who will decide the future of their nation, and currently there doesnt seem to be a party advocating an opposite policy in the country, and they are capable and willing to deliver more bloodshed. It just feels like someone needs to step in, traditionally this has been America but they reguse, so the question the world should be asking is how do they get America to listen.

  6. TPOF

    “Any one, other than Jews (or Roma), who was not useful to be worked were left alone.”
    Well, they had plans to kill them all, but they never got that far. It was part of their plans for Lebensraum

  8. Socrates @ #1314 Monday, July 14th, 2025 – 7:17 pm

    Omar Comin / Fargo61

    “ What I will never forget about him and the Greens, is that in 1995 QLD state election they directed preferences to the Libs/Nats in five marginal electorates including Mulgrave, Springwood and Mansfield. Those three seats were all lost by Labor, and resulted, after the 1996 Mundingburra re-election, of the end of the Wayne Goss government.”
    https://www.afr.com/politics/the-voting-virus-that-threatens-paul-keating-19950803-k6jn5
    ——————————————————
    +1 re Drew Hutton. An absolute political animal who saw the Greens as his ticket to a political career. I was a Qld State public servant at the time. I came across Hutton via work in two projects back then.

    First there had been a state proposal to turn most of Cape York into a national park, employing local Aboriginal people to act as rangers. It would have been a huge step forward for both the environment and native title. Yet Hutton ignored it in preferencing the Nationals, who killed the idea when elected.

    Second several of the Green targeted seats were in the path of a road project called the South Coast Motorway, which would have been built parallel to the Pacific Highway. Dutton and the protesters nicknamed it the Koala highway saying it would decimate koala numbers in habitat along the route.

    This turned out to be false. We got ecologists to study it. Turned out the koala numbers were misleading and the biggest killer of koalas were the dogs of rural property owners who lived along the route. Most of the protesting residents planned to subdivide their properties. They had no intention of saving the koalas.

    Socrates thank you for that fascinating bit of history. I wonder if Hutton regrets that preference deal today.

    In claiming to prevent a koala genocide, he may have precipitated a koala holocaust.

  9. Nath

    Oakeshott Country
    I think you said you spend sometime near Carcassonne, home of the legendary Puig Aubert, the French GOAT who was known to smoke a gauloise while taking a conversion.
    ________________________________
    Well Paul Keating did alert us to the Polynesian population in that area:

    Oh, yes, there’s Polynesians all the way down from Aix en Provence, Carcassonne. They pop out of the woodwork into the Loire Valley. You know, you see them doing the Polynesian dances in the back end of the Loire Valley, in the walled city of Carcassonne,

    You really do win quote of the day!

    The link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8Ezrneflwc

    Classic Keating!

    But, actually, now, we do have many hefty guys playing rugby in le Sud-ouest! Including more than a few Polynesian players. And don’t forget that Peter FitzSimons was one of the hefty guys playing in the South of France in the 1980s.

    I am not a very sporty person, but I was a rugby tragic supporter of Parramatta (my father’s team), and now support the Riff (my kids’ team), and South Sydney, where I have lived for 20 or so years.

    So, when I am in Sainte-Foy-La-Grande, I go with friends to watch and support the Pays Foyen rugby team. And 2 euro beers! And I love to see our local Polynesian players. I almost feel like I am back in Oz!

    From this I take that rugby is a great leveller.

    And, it is difficult to overstate how much a part of the community rugby is there. It brings the community together, and if someone is not doing well, the rugby team helps them out.

  10. Here is a hypothetical. If Bradfield goes to a by election. Can Labor win it and should they bother running.?

    My feeling is Labor could win it but I’m not sure they should bother.

  11. Entropy says:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 9:51 pm
    Here is a hypothetical. If Bradfield goes to a by election. Can Labor win it and should they bother running.?

    My feeling is Labor could win it but I’m not sure they should bother.

    _____________________________________

    They should not run. They have a massive majority already. If it is retained by Boele, she will be much harder for the Liberals to shift than a Labor member at the next election.

  12. They should not run. They have a massive majority already. If it is retained by Boele, she will be much harder for the Liberals to shift than a Labor member at the next election.
    —————————————————————-

    My feeling too. While they probably could win it they are less likely to retain it then Boele is. Also the amount of money both Teals and Libs are willing to throw at seats like this. It is better to let the Libs throw lots of money at it and Labor to save theirs.

    Though I’m quite disappointed it will be a very long time before we find out what the actual 2PP for Bradfield is. It appears to be quite controversial as KB’s estimate is around 5% different to the one the AEC published. Which is a massive difference between estimate of this kind.

  13. EDIT: Just saw WB’s note on “Holocaust” posts. Let the following, written before I’d seen William’s post, be my last thoughts on the subject.

    TPOF,

    Pious utterances that I’m wrong and racist, but you’re too tired to pursue it don’t cut it. Easy accusations of anti-semitism are exactly what I’m complaining about. The phoney moral exasperation of those such as yourself, ostensibly exhausted by bigots who can’t possibly understand their moral superiority and insight, is laughable.

    As soon as you start parsing and nitpicking as regards exact definitions and various remote nuances to prove that murdered Jews are somehow more special, distingushable or important than murdered Slavs, Armenians, Chinese, Ukrainians, Rwandans, homosexuals, Gypsies, and all the rest, you’ve lost the argument.

    In particular, your insinuation that because “Holocaust” is a word that has come to be applied to the Nazi murder of Jews in European death camps (See? I’m not a Holocaust denier either, another unhinged allegation you make) and therefore cannot be used in any other context, is wrong. The etymology of the word “holocaust” goes back way before the 1940s. If you want to confine your righteous opprobrium to the massacre of Jews alone, then the Hebrew “Shoah” is the better description.

    The word “holocaust” refers to massacres involving violent death and fire. A better word for what Israel is doing to Gaza today, in 2025, would be hard to imagine.

  14. I hope the court accepts the case and orders a new election because “lol, yolo”, and also because you can never have enough pp posts calling Boele a sleaze.

  15. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 9:14 pm

    …. Now be a sport: fuck off.
    =============================

    Classic pearl from the earl, directed at that group of posters who don’t fit within the 90% pro-Labor lobby here. ie: the “others”.
    I gather you want the site 100% Labor oriented.
    90% is just not enough.

  18. Pedantsays:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 10:12 pm
    Re earlier comments about Trump’s absurd nominee as US Ambassador to Malaysia: the Malaysians have a perfect right under Article 4 of the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations to refuse to accept him, without having to give a reason. https://legal.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/english/conventions/9_1_1961.pdf
    ——————————————————————

    Though from what I read of the guy. It shouldn’t be to hard to come up with at least ten valid reasons without trying to hard at all.

  19. Au contraire, Paul the A: I enjoy my sport with the great unwashed.

    Unfortunately, you provide such poor game. You self badged ‘conservatives’ have been hard boiled on a solid diet of outrage politics that you are nothing more than reactionary cookers: always looking to punch down on folk that you blame for all your perceived sleights and losing your lolly over any of your targets actually punching up and connecting (witness T De Merde’s six month white privilege wigout over Usi sticking it to that fat blimp who sits astride Queensland Cricket – Dutton’s mate).

    94: suffer in your Sox.

  20. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 10:21 pm
    Au contraire, Paul the A: I enjoy my sport with the great unwashed.
    ==========
    The tide turns in politics and the affairs of man, as you well know.
    I’ll be around.
    I’ll enjoy doing it slowly.

  21. paul Asays:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 10:10 pm
    Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 9:14 pm

    …. Now be a sport: fuck off.
    =============================

    Classic pearl from the earl, directed at that group of posters who don’t fit within the 90% pro-Labor lobby here. ie: the “others”.
    I gather “dumb-brain” you want the site 100% Labor oriented.
    90% is just not enough for loons like you, is it.
    中华人民共和国
    Actually you and your “mate” are the “Pig Ignorants” here. Taylormade is just a joke and will remain so.

    I voted to legislate, “that means make LAW”, by an Act of Parliament, the recognition of same sex civil relationships within my jurisdiction. This happened well before the Australian Plebiscite on same sex marriage and the resulting Federal Legislation.

    Earlwood, and the Sydney crew who have met me, plus MABWM whom I dined with last week in Bangkok know my story and my family history.

    I’m proud of my small role in taking the lead in the recognition of same sex relationships. It was pioneering and your “Pig Ignorance” of the facts diminishes your contributions here.

  22. Upnorth – you can take your pro-China rhetoric and shove it up your jumper.
    You know exactly what they stand for.
    Can’t have it two ways pal, except on this site, where you are protected by the “pro-Labor 90% clique”.
    Yes, the “others” are aware of the “groupthink” here.
    You and your Labor mates agreeing with each other, all day, every day. It must be a real turn on.

  23. paul Asays:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 10:37 pm
    Upnorth – you can take your pro-China rhetoric and shove it up your jumper.
    You know exactly what they stand for.
    Can’t have it two ways pal, except on this site, where you are protected by the “pro-Labor 90% clique”.
    Yes, the “others” are aware of the “groupthink” here.
    You and your Labor mates agreeing with each other, all day, every day. It must be a real turn on.
    中华人民共和国
    Cobber have a Bex and good lie down. You’ll do a fu fu tube.

  24. TPOF,

    I would normally agree, except I don’t like lazy accusations of racism and Shoah denial. They are far too frequent here, and lately in society in general. Revelations from evidence in the recent court case between the ABC and Antoinette Latouff have demonstrated the latter in spades.

  25. “paul A says:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 10:25 pm
    Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 10:21 pm
    Au contraire, Paul the A: I enjoy my sport with the great unwashed.
    ==========
    The tide turns in politics and the affairs of man, as you well know.
    I’ll be around.
    I’ll enjoy doing it slowly.”

    ______

    The problem, sport with your intended ‘doing it slowly’ plan is … well, it’s you: you are the problem.

    For as long as folk of your ilk are running amuck inside the Big Anti-labor Party there is no pathway back. Ever. In short, your team is fucked because you (and your ilk) are fucked in the head and the general voting public (including Textor-Crosby’s famed ‘low information – low interest’ voters that those sithlords have spent 25 years in leading around by the nose) have worked you out. But please – ‘you do you’ and keep putting folk like Angus Taylor up as the frontmen for your party. Please. Seriously. I have no problems with an 8 term Labor government. … is that ‘doing it slowly enough’ for you sport?

  26. “Former federal Labor leader and controversial One Nation figure Mark Latham is at the centre of ­allegations from a former partner that he forced her into degrading sexual acts, demanded she call him “master” and threw dinner plates at her, in an explosive application for a domestic violence order.

    Mr Latham on Monday issued an emphatic denial about the claims, saying they were “absolute rubbish” and declaring he had not yet been served with any order.

    In application documents filed with the NSW Local Court, his former partner of almost three years, Nathalie May Matthews, has claimed that he engaged in a “sustained pattern” of abuse, including emotional, psychological and financial manipulation, pressured her to have sex with other people and participate in depraved acts, and drove his car at her.

    Ms Matthews, 37, who owns an e-commerce global logistics firm based in Dubai, Perth and Sydney, is seeking an order preventing Mr Latham from going within 100m of her, alleging an “ongoing, reasonable fear of harassment, intimidation, and potential harm”.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/mark-latham-denies-former-partner-nathalie-matthews-shocking-abuse-claims/news-story/030e7a1ac2871525b812d2e37de1cffc?amp

  27. “Liberal candidate for Bradfield Gisele Kapterian has ended weeks of speculation and will on Tuesday appeal against the election outcome in the once blue-ribbon North Sydney seat.

    Kapterian fell short in Bradfield by 26 votes to teal candidate Nicolette Boele in a recount, leaving Bradfield the most marginal seat in the country. Kapterian won the initial count by eight votes.

    Boele’s win marked the first time in 75 years that the seat was not held by the Liberals, but despite the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) declaring her the winner, Kapterian did not concede.

    In a statement posted on her Instagram account on Monday night, Kapterian said: “After careful consideration of the two different results of the counts in Bradfield, we have taken the decision to go to the umpire.”

    “Today’s decision is taken to ensure the intentions of the votes of Bradfield were accurately reflected in the final count,” her statement said.

    “The legislation anticipates the need to look again at the ballot papers, given the highly subjective nature of decisions relating to interpreting voter intentions. In this instance, a final arbitrator does exactly what the AEC officials were doing throughout the count.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/liberals-mount-court-challenge-in-last-ditch-bid-to-reclaim-bradfield-20250714-p5mewz.html

  30. Granny Annysays:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 11:12 pm
    The cookers are going after Dan.
    ——————————————————–

    He lives rent free in their heads.

  32. Saw this on that moronic website:

    “We believe that Democracy only works when voters participate.”
    Victoria and then Australia did just that. Your lot were obliterated.

  33. This whole talk of who is pro or anti China is silly. I am not pro China but I am not blindly anti-China either.

    If the whole AUKUS episode proves anything, it is that the strategic theorists are proven right once again. Nations make strategic decisions based on their interests not shared history and values. Australia has greater economic interests with China than USA.

    All those high sounding words used to justify AUKUS are starting to look very hollow as our “great and powerful friend” first threatens to damage. australia’s economy unless we bow to his demands on things like the PBS.

    Now we’re being shaken down for more cash contributions to the US military or we may not get subs or much other defense.

    Elbridge Colby’s words could not be better designed to drive a wedge into support for AUKUS. AUKUS seems to have ben seen by the Biden administration as an attempt to keep Australia and USA close as our trade interests diverged. Yet the hard bargaining way it has been negotiated means that AUKUS may only accelerate the shift of Australia and USA apart.

  36. NathanAsays:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 8:18 pm
    Now, I previously accused the envoy for antisemitism of soft thinking, and I don’t seem to be on my Pat Malone on that one. As ever, Mehreen Faruqi can be relied on to throw two bowers on the pile and trump anyone on the charge of soft thinking by some margin.

    How on earth does the PM have any “questions to answer”? He appointed someone to a position whose husband has directly opposing political opinions to his own. What’s wrong with that???

    The questions he has to answer are whether his Government will implement any of the plan. We are getting strong signals that they won’t have a bar of defunding Universities, stronger signals from the gutless wonders that run the joints I might add, which is a good thing that they’re listening to the right people. Part of their political appeal really.

    But arguing that the PM has “questions to answer” is avoiding that argument. It comes across that her problem is not that the broad and punitive measures would adversely affect a lot of people not involved in the issue, but the PMs “character” or something or other.

    The sooner the Greens change their slogan to “Middle class mediocrity lives here”, the better off we’ll all be.

    +1 gazillion

    Also, I would like it if Green Pegasus, or any other Greens supporter, could provide a link to Mehreen Faruqi condemning the latest attempted firebombing of a Jewish synagogue.

  38. ”
    Pisays:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 8:44 pm
    Bonza: ” with human suffering,”

    You’re addicted to seeking out the media that satisfies that urge for you. It is literally on the other side of the world, and the only reason you’re interested in this particular set of events, is because of the social media engagement algorithm that feeds you. Like a junkie.

    Bonza: “It has also been a different kind of interesting to see the way in which some people’s brains melt on this particular issue.”

    You almost get it.
    ”

    Pi is unfortunately wrong even when compared with his logic i.e. we should be only be interested in our neck of woods especially with what is happening in Australia.
    Why?
    1. Jews and Muslims are at loggerheads with each other in Australia due to that war and Albanese appointed special envoys for Judaism and Islam to provide reports regarding that loggerheads in the name of anti-Semitism and Islamophobia, which is probably one of the biggest mistake in his 1st term as PM and which came to bite in him second term as PM.
    2. Indonesia, our nearest neighbour to North and largest Muslim country in the world, are carefully watching our government regarding Gaza war (no I won’t provide any links for that).
    3. Whether you like and accept it or not, Netanyahu repeatedly “screeched” ‘anti-semitism’ at Australian government, when he is the one committing ethnic cleansing in Gaza. That should raise the blood of anyone in Australia.
    4. Why did Australia participate in WW1 & WW2 although it had nothing to do with Australia (Curtin wanted soldiers back from ‘other side of the world’ only when Japan attacked Australia.)?

  39. Trump said that Putin fooled Clinton, Bush Jr., Obama and Biden but did not fool him.
    A projection so laughable I started laughing loud as soon as I heard it.

  40. Ghost of Whitlam at 12.20am.

    “Saw this on that moronic website:”

    Further to that, check out some of the stuff in their “shop”.

    https://www.monicasmit.com/shop/

    Hair loss treatment, a gadget to shield you from EMF in your home, cheap at $200. I have referred these cookers and charlatans to the ACA, hopefully they will get a shonky award.

  41. paul A @ #1420 Monday, July 14th, 2025 – 10:25 pm

    The tide turns in politics and the affairs of man, as you well know.
    I’ll be around.
    I’ll enjoy doing it slowly.

    What are you for, exactly, Paully the A. Nominate a policy, any policy, of the ricketty coalition that you support, if you can find one. Robodebt? Insulting China? Sticking your head up the orange carbuncle’s arse? Holidaying in Hawaii while your nation burns? Nuclear bullshit boondoggles? Climate change denial? What? What drives and inspires you to support losers like Sussssan and/or the corrupt water seller?

    Enlighten us, please. You and TailoredMerde and BeauSyphilis/Foobar and your ilk are political mysteries. Dills in search of a principle, which you can never find, because they don’t exist in the Murdoch/Rinehart moral wilderness.

    Do it slowly, to prolong the amusement.

  42. Our alliance is based on ANZUS. This obliges us to consult with either country should either be attacked. We have a talk fest alliance. Nothing more and nothing less.

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