Two new Victorian state polls suggest Labor has re-established its dominance in the state, despite the evident handicap of Jacinta Allan’s unpopularity. Newspoll in The Australian has Labor leading the Coalition 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 35%, Coalition 35% and Greens 12%, compared with 2022 election results of Labor 37.0%, Coalition 34.4% and Greens 11.5% and 55.0-45.0 to Labor on two-party preferred. However, Allan records dire personal ratings of 30% approval and 61% disapproval compared with 35% and 40% for Liberal leader Brad Battin, who leads 41-36 as preferred premier. A question on confidence in the Coalition’s readiness to govern breaks 60-40 against. The poll was conducted June 23 to 30 from a sample size to be advised. While there have been numerous Victorian state polls since the last election, I believe this is the first from Newspoll.
The Herald-Sun reports a RedBridge Group poll crediting Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5, reversing a 51-49 deficit in the last such poll in April. Labor is up four on the primary vote 33%, with the Coalition down three to 38% and the Greens up one to 14%. Twenty-seven per cent say the Allan government has the right focus and priorities, with 55% holding a contrary view, while 26% think the Coalition deserves to win the next election, 45% holding otherwise. The poll was conducted June 19 to 30 from a sample of 1183.
UPDATE (8/7): The Australian has further results from Newspoll, finding 59% support for the Suburban Rail Loop with 32% opposed, and asking if respondents were “worried” or “confident” in four different policy areas: state debt (78% worried, 13% confident), law and order (76% worried, 20% confident), hospitals (71% worried, 25% confident) and housing (78% worried, 16% confident).
Also no party has had 4 terms or more since the Bolte/Hamer peroid. History would have to be rewritten if it happens but I trust history more than the polls which don’t paint the full canvas.
@Daniel T, I just think the completion of those two major projects will win back a little bit of goodwill. We’re only talking 1-2% being needed here and there to save seats too.
One perfect example is Sunbury – an absolutely “must win” seat for the Liberals that is within the first 17 on the pendulum they need – and fits the profile of exactly the type of seat they need to win. Outer suburban but (like Melton) also a recent history of being semi-regional, more white / less diverse population, the kind of seat where voters may have felt neglected by Labor in recent years etc. It has a margin of 6.4%, certainly winnable for the Liberals. But Sunbury will absolutely be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Metro Tunnel, so Labor even salvaging 1-2% of the vote that may have otherwise swung away (particularly “the west has been neglected” vote) will probably help them retain the seat, and I can’t see the Liberals winning without gaining seats like Sunbury.
Also I totally agree that Hastings, Bass & Pakenham are all likely to flip to the Liberals. I’d confidently chalk them up as Liberal gains right now. Melton & Yan Yean are very likely to flip too.
On Prahran, I don’t think Hibbins’ behaviour had much to do with the result at all. It was more the perfect storm of other unique byelection factors:
– No Labor candidate totally changing the dynamic of the race;
– Ex-Labor MP getting 13% and directing preferences to Liberals;
– No chance of Liberals forming government (allows protest vote);
– No focus whatsoever on party or leader, it was purely a candidate vs candidate contest;
– No Labor candidate also meant no attack campaign against Libs (Greens didn’t run one), but there was a very aggressive campaign against the Greens from multiple angles;
– VERY low turnout, which data indicates was extremely concentrated to the Port Phillip (St Kilda & Southbank) parts of the seat which are the Greens’ best
Not only that, but the byelection also occurred only 2 weeks after the absolute peak of the Liberals’ polling in Victoria (the infamous Resolve poll that had Labor on 22% and the Liberals on 42%).
Despite all those factors, Westaway still only won the 2CP by about 800 votes, and only managed a 36% primary vote (-6 compared to the statewide poll). Remember, the Liberals have lost Prahran with a 44% primary vote before. Any one of the factors listed above not being present could have closed that 800 vote gap.
Some other context around Prahran is that demographic & boundary changes, as well as a broader political realignment, have shifted it from being a seat that leaned slightly Liberal compared to the state result in 2014 (when it included Toorak), to a seat where the Liberal result was -7 compared to their statewide result in 2022.
If the federal election is anything to go by, that trend away from the Liberals is continuing because the statewide 2PP in Victoria was 56-44 in May; but the result overlapping Prahran (and this factors in postal votes in a way that is probably generous to the Liberals) was around 67-33 against the Libs. So they were -11 within Prahran’s boundaries compared to Victoria overall.
With all those factors in mind, it’s almost impossible to see the Liberals winning Prahran when both Labor & Greens are running in a general election, as it would require outperforming their overlapping federal result by a whopping +17, and outperforming their 2022 result by +12.
I don’t think even the Liberals see Prahran as being part of their path to government.
Oh hey, support for the Suburban Rail Loop strong just like I always said, and absolutely opposite where the Vic media and Libs would have had you believe for the last year.
What a shock.
With the Libs the way they are now, they’d probably lose a Hawthorn By-Election if the Credlin wing succeed in pushing Pesutto out of politics.
Probably more likely to a Teal than Labor, who probably wouldn’t run.
@ Trent
Tuesday, July 8, 2025 at 2:54 pm
As a Victorian expatriate who hasn’t been close to the political scene there since 1980, just a shout out to say thanks for taking the time and effort to pen such eloquent, informative and persuasive contributions to PB. Much appreciated!
Very informative Trent. You know your Victorian politics.
Thanks arraitch and YaramahZ! 🙂 I’m just glad to finally have some new state polling to get an idea of where things are tracking at the moment too.
One thing I will mention is that while I predict Labor might lose anywhere between 6-10 seats to the Liberals, they could actually offset some of those losses by gaining between 1-3 seats from the Greens (out of Richmond, Prahran & Melbourne) compared to 2022, and the Liberals could very possibly lose Hawthorn to a Teal as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if the result ends up being something like a -3% 2PP swing against Labor translating to a seat count of around 50 ALP, 35 LNP, 2 GRN, 1 IND. Which I think Labor would be very content with.
Trent, do you think 2030 will go coalition? providing there isn’t a coalition government in Canberra.
Do you think Jess Wilson would win in 2030 if she is leader and the party modernizes? And if Ben Carrol is premier by then, do you see Labor winning an unprecedented 5th term or do you think the coalition get back in a landslide in 2030? Do you think it will be like NSW 2011 after 16 years?
We are actually very busy in Melbourne. But three big infrastructure projects (west gate tunnel, level crossing removal, and metro tunnel) are ending and if you want to keep that capability, you have to find another project for them to work on, or you lose it. The capability that is. When you want to start it up again, you end up having to pay more money. Usually a lot. It just so happens that there is another road job, and rail tunnel job (SRL, NE link), but then airport link? Like i said, we’re busy in Melbourne. It’s just a cold calculation though. What is the cheapest way to build infrastructure? This way. I’m not the decision maker, I just help make it happen, but the infrastructure that we’re getting for the quality of the product? Bargain.
A bit of context of large infrastructure projects; i work delivering them. Just about those areas that are affected by them completing and the election next year…. They change and quickly. Those places. Those three big projects just completing will be felt in those areas a lot. As far as the level crossing removal project, NO ONE says that was a bad decision anymore. Anymore.
2030 is too hard to say this far out. Either party could win it and I think it would be close. I could definitely see Jess Wilson winning an election as leader at some point, and at some point the Liberals will be due for an electoral victory too. 2030 may be it, especially if Labor have been in government at both levels for 8 years (since the 2022 federal election) by that point.
But unless there’s a seismic shift in the political landscape, I can’t envision the Coalition winning any landslides in Victoria. The electoral map is just not their friend, I’d see 47-48 seats as their ceiling, and that for the foreseeable future the pattern will probably be that the Liberals occasionally interrupt long periods of Labor government with narrow victories similar to 2010.
@Pi, I remember all the anti-Skyrail controversy in Murrumbeena around 2015-16. There was such a fear campaign about it. Then it opened. The 2018 election rolls around, double-digit swings to Labor in Murrumbeena. I’ve never heard a single person say a bad word about the Skyrail since it opened.
Honestly for all we know the Liberal Party could split between Moderates and Conservatives by 2030. They’re well on their way to doing that by 2026 at the moment.
That’s the thing Kirsdarke; I don’t think there’s anything left to split off. They drove them all out. I’m talking members here. If there’s any doubt left, maybe Battin getting made bankrupt will remove the doubt? I mean seriously… yikes. This is who they are now. It’s not even contentious to point it out.
Pi @ #113 Tuesday, July 8th, 2025 – 5:14 pm
Well, the party administration did vote to bail out Pesutto, and those on the side of Moira Deeming are very angry about it. The Victorian Liberals appear to be close to a splitting point between those that think Pesutto has suffered enough and those who have had their brains melted by Sky After Dark that want nothing less than his execution. It seems the latter category are very common among Liberal rank-and-file branch members.
The electorate will take a big bite of the shit sandwich and vote the Labor party back in.
Victoria Libs are a total and utter basket case, and the electorate know it is not fit to govern.
The Tory media go on about debt, but it is debt on infrastructure, that stuff that only gets built with a Labor govt.
Murdoch is a spent force both Federally and regionally. Nobody hated on Labor more than the Hun but it has zero effect on voting intentions.
People might be tired of Labor, but are frightened of the rabble that is the opposition.
Daniel Tsays:
Tuesday, July 8, 2025 at 2:37 pm
Also no party has had 4 terms or more since the Bolte/Hamer peroid. History would have to be rewritten if it happens but I trust history more than the polls which don’t paint the full canvas.
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Seeing as 4 terms would be 16 years. There would have only been enough time for it to happen twice at the most between now and the Hamer period. So hardly a rewriting of history if the last time it happened was the 1970’s
Trentsays:
Tuesday, July 8, 2025 at 4:42 pm
2030 is too hard to say this far out. Either party could win it and I think it would be close. I could definitely see Jess Wilson winning an election as leader at some point…
_______________
Not if she’s peddling IPA rubbish.
Don’t get me wrong, I think they will only scrape out a narrow victory by default if/when the electorate decides Labor need a spell on the bench and the Libs present as an electable enough alternative for a term.
A big reason why the Bolte-Hamer Liberal government lasted as long as it did was because Victorian Labor was behaving a lot like the Victorian Liberals in the present day.
T: “the Libs present as an electable enough alternative for a term.”
Well that’s the ‘if’ really, innit?
Yeah a big “if” that I certainly don’t see being the case in 2026.
By 2030 Victoria will very likely be 16 years into a 4 term state Labor government, and also 8 years into a 3 term federal Labor government, so the chances of the electorate* feeling like it may be time for their occasional term on the bench are probably pretty high, but the state Libs will have to find a way to present as a much more viable alternative than they currently do.
* Not me personally, I’d be happy to never see the Liberals anywhere near government in Victoria.
I agree totally with what Trent said about the Metro Tunnel completion and would add the Westgate tunnel completion. Both will add to the feeling that the current Government is starting to deliver projects that are making meaningful improvements to the life of western suburb residents.
”
Kirsdarkesays:
Tuesday, July 8, 2025 at 5:18 pm
Pi @ #113 Tuesday, July 8th, 2025 – 5:14 pm
That’s the thing Kirsdarke; I don’t think there’s anything left to split off. They drove them all out. If there’s any doubt left, maybe Battin getting made bankrupt will remove the doubt? I mean seriously… yikes. This is who they are now.
Well, the party administration did vote to bail out Pesutto, and those on the side of Moira Deeming are very angry about it. The Victorian Liberals appear to be close to a splitting point between those that think Pesutto has suffered enough and those who have had their brains melted by Sky After Dark that want nothing less than his execution. It seems the latter category are very common among Liberal rank-and-file branch members.
”
This reminds me of the hard left operating out of Victorian Trades Hall during Menzies years. They were bent on being pure on their ideology than winning power and doing something for working class people. It was very easy for Victorian Liberal party and Menzies to remain in power.
Snap Kirsdarke@Tues 8:27 pm
See the LNP back in court on the 25th sept. Re the on going drama with Deeming and presuttoooooo…
Warring Liberals set for a grand final clash
As Victorians prepare to kick into the long weekend AFL grand final party, warring Liberals will be tackling each other in the Supreme Court.
The drama that keeps on giving
I hope the drama continues long into 2026.