DemosAU: 59-41 to Labor (open thread)

The third pollster to take to the field since the federal election gives Labor its strongest result to date.

DemosAU has published its first federal poll since the election, producing Labor’s strongest result to date: a two-party lead of 59-41, compared with an election result of 55.2-44.8, from primary votes of Labor 36% (34.6% at the election), Coalition 26% (31.8%), Greens 14% (12.2%) and One Nation 9% (6.4%). The accompanying release has breakdowns by gender, age, education and residential tenure. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 1199.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,443 thoughts on “DemosAU: 59-41 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. In the UK they call them ‘nonces’, which is also the term used for the random number used to initiate the Bitcoin blockchain. I do not believe this to be a coincidence.

  2. Ashasays:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 5:21 pm
    For the life of me, I will never understand the lunatic anti-trans fervour that has exploded in the last few years. All the shit going on in the world right now and these nutbars choose that to be the issue they dedicate their time and energy on. Forget about the economy or housing or healthcare or the various wars going on overseas, no, the most important thinf for these sociopaths is that we make life even harder for a vulnerable minority that represents a tiny segment of the population. Imagine that being your legacy!

    _____________________

    I have a couple of theories, not endorsing any but very amateur psychoanalysis. It is a coalition of:

    – Soft/hard religious apocalypse’ists who, not able to afford having 15 children, are irrationally fearful of not getting grandchildren from their one child (the “stop drag story time” crowd).

    – Economically conservative gays who disapprove some of the leftie connections to the LGBT community.

    – Lesbian boomer lefties so relevance deprived after the 1970s they need a new target to hate on.

    – I have absolutely no explanation of J. K. Rowling.

    I don’t agree that it is “driven by hate”, rather hate is a symptom of broader grievances and trans folk are unfortunately an easy target.

    I also believe there is no native (to Australia) anti-trans movement, it is all imported culture war – from right wing LNP types who can no longer win elections on the economics, to a small group of lefties who’s intellectual framework is stuck at Germaine Greer.

  3. Its all good Upnorth I think I get where you’re coming from now. I guess we disagree on that I think they made the right call . To me it seems like he has just fallen on the trans mind virus that seems to break a lot of people’s brains and the fact this has been ongoing for two years seems to me like they wanted to keep him and convince him to change his mind. His outreach with regional communities might have made him a good communicator in promoting social unity and weakening the power of the anti trans rhetoric that plays so well in those communities.

  4. BW:

    Who (when and why) first set up a Commonwealtg police force?

    It was Billy Hughes after an anti-conscription protester pelted him with an egg or a tomato or something, wasn’t it?

  5. I have no view on male to female trans (which is the only kind in genuine contention) other than live and let live. I don’t know any trans people but have met some in the past and see some of them on TV, such as Cate MacGregor. I also listened to The Trauma Cleaner, which is a fantastic book I would recommend to anyone. They are a very small portion of our population, much smaller than gays and lesbians, which probably make them a particularly safe target for right wing culture warriors.

    I accept though that some women (and, often, men associated with them) have experiences or fears about some transgender women that are genuine. Some are expressing their views in a non-violent or aggressive way. The crap heaped on them and the aggressive cancel culture being applied to them is worrying. People who express their views in a non-violent and non-aggressive way are entitled to express their views – even if you don’t like them.

    In that regard, they are no different from pro-Palestinian (or indeed pro-Israel) supporters who are non-violent and simply gather in public places to express their feelings.

    So I am a bit disturbed by the strong attacks on Drew Hutton here. Whatever you think of him otherwise, he is entitled to express his views. It is for the Greens to decide whether his views are inconsistent with their policies and whether he should remain a member. Of course, the hypocrisy of the Greens in the way they have progressed this issue is another matter.

  6. Fargo61 @ #1299 Monday, July 14th, 2025 – 6:33 pm

    I have no comment to make on whatever Drew Hutton did or didn’t say to upset the Greens.

    What I will never forget about him and the Greens, is that in 1995 QLD state election they directed preferences to the Libs/Nats in five marginal electorates including Mulgrave, Springwood and Mansfield. Those three seats were all lost by Labor, and resulted, after the 1996 Mundingburra re-election, of the end of the Wayne Goss government.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/the-voting-virus-that-threatens-paul-keating-19950803-k6jn5

    Premier Wayne Goss – according to the polls, Australia’s most popular political leader – had seen his 19-seat majority in State Parliament decimated. And many analysts blamed a surge in support for Independent, Green and Democrat candidates for that collapse in Labor’s support base. For the first time, Greens and Democrats decided to direct preferences across a number of seats to Coalition candidates.

    And in certain seats – such as Springwood where the Democrats came within 500 primary votes of victory – those preferences saw the removal of a Labor member (in Springwood’s case the demise of prominent Environment Minister Molly Robson).

  7. With Albo and WA’s iron ore magnates in China, I thought it might be a good time to give a brief overview of the global iron and steel industry, which is responsible for ~8% of global CO2 emissions.

    Historically, iron has been made in a blast furnace (BF) with coke (almost pure carbon, C) used to reduce iron oxide (FeO*) to metallic iron (Fe):

    2FeO + C –> 2Fe + CO2

    * This is a simplification, most ores contain haematite (Fe2O3) or magnetite (Fe3O4).

    The simplest way to decarbonise the ironmaking process is to reduce iron ore using direct iron reduction (DRI) with green hydrogen instead of using a BF. In 2023, some progress was made in this regard but not enough:

    https://steelwatch.org/commentary/has-steel-sector-decarbonisation-progressed-in-2024/

    More detailed information is available here:
    https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-iron-and-steel-tracker/dashboard/

    Steel is made from iron, mostly using a basic oxygen furnace (BOF) or electric arc furnace (EAF). EAFs generally produce lower emissions than BOFs, especially if scrap steel is used. Globally, about 2/3 of steel is made using a BOF but in 2023, EAFs increased their share:

    https://globalenergymonitor.org/report/pedal-to-the-metal-2024/

    In China, EAFs produce < 10% of total steel production while there is a BOF overcapacity.

    To reduce overcapacity and achieve net-zero goals, China needs to halt new approvals and retire some of the existing BFs and BOFs.
    https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/urge-for-reform-blast-furnace-glut-in-china-erodes-profitability-and-hinders-green-steel-transition/

  8. ”If Clinton or any other left-leaning politicians are in the Epstein files…”

    … it would have been leaked by now.

  9. 12.17 AEST
    Andrew Forrest says he has asked Anthony Albanese to form a bilateral agreement with China in the face of threats from artificial intelligence.

    Speaking in Shanghai, the Western Australian businessman said just now:

    “I asked our prime minister if he could work together with China to form a bilateral agreement where we escape the threats coming from AI to employment, both in China and Australia, and generate a serious jobs boom in both China for green steel, and particularly for Australia in green iron.

    We forecast hundreds of thousands of new jobs, plus multiplier effects across this. Across China we have people. They want a peaceful long-term relationship with Australia. Across Australia, we have people who want a peaceful, long-term relationship with China. The prime minister has brought us into the realm of that peaceful long-term relationship.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/jul/14/australia-news-live-anthony-albanese-china-nsw-koala-deaths-greens-ntwnfb?page=with%3Ablock-687467cd8f08a97237f2e2e6#block-687467cd8f08a97237f2e2e6

  10. Bean says:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 6:44 pm
    Its all good Upnorth I think I get where you’re coming from now. I guess we disagree on that I think they made the right call . To me it seems like he has just fallen on the trans mind virus that seems to break a lot of people’s brains and the fact this has been ongoing for two years seems to me like they wanted to keep him and convince him to change his mind. His outreach with regional communities might have made him a good communicator in promoting social unity and weakening the power of the anti trans rhetoric that plays so well in those communities.
    中华人民共和国
    All good cobber. You are good in my books.

  11. Omar Comin / Fargo61

    “ What I will never forget about him and the Greens, is that in 1995 QLD state election they directed preferences to the Libs/Nats in five marginal electorates including Mulgrave, Springwood and Mansfield. Those three seats were all lost by Labor, and resulted, after the 1996 Mundingburra re-election, of the end of the Wayne Goss government.”
    https://www.afr.com/politics/the-voting-virus-that-threatens-paul-keating-19950803-k6jn5
    ——————————————————
    +1 re Drew Hutton. An absolute political animal who saw the Greens as his ticket to a political career. I was a Qld State public servant at the time. I came across Hutton via work in two projects back then.

    First there had been a state proposal to turn most of Cape York into a national park, employing local Aboriginal people to act as rangers. It would have been a huge step forward for both the environment and native title. Yet Hutton ignored it in preferencing the Nationals, who killed the idea when elected.

    Second several of the Green targeted seats were in the path of a road project called the South Coast Motorway, which would have been built parallel to the Pacific Highway. Dutton and the protesters nicknamed it the Koala highway saying it would decimate koala numbers in habitat along the route.

    This turned out to be false. We got ecologists to study it. Turned out the koala numbers were misleading and the biggest killer of koalas were the dogs of rural property owners who lived along the route. Most of the protesting residents planned to subdivide their properties. They had no intention of saving the koalas.

  12. The Liberals are going to challenge the election result in Bradfield – so who is paying for the court challenge and the lawyers? The NSW Liberal Party division aren’t in a good state financially. Ms Kapterian presumably thinks she’s entitled to a seat in parliament.

  13. GA

    Senator Mehreen Faruqi has responded to reports the husband of antisemitism envoy Jillian Segal is co-director of a company that made a major donation to rightwing conservative lobby group, Advance.

    In a statement, Faruqi said:

    The Prime Minister has questions to answer as to what due diligence was conducted prior to Ms Segal’s appointment.

    These revelations just add to the problems of an antisemitism report that does more to stifle free speech than to protect minority groups … the whole system of ‘envoys’ is redundant when we already have a Race Discrimination Commissioner empowered to combat all forms of racism.

    If the Prime Minister was serious about tackling racism – in all its forms – his government would commit to urgently funding and implementing the National Anti-Racism Framework, which provides a blueprint for an anti-racist Australia that protects everyone: First Nations people, Jews, Muslims, and other racialised minorities.

  14. Socrates @ #1314 Monday, July 14th, 2025 – 7:17 pm

    Omar Comin / Fargo61

    “ What I will never forget about him and the Greens, is that in 1995 QLD state election they directed preferences to the Libs/Nats in five marginal electorates including Mulgrave, Springwood and Mansfield. Those three seats were all lost by Labor, and resulted, after the 1996 Mundingburra re-election, of the end of the Wayne Goss government.”
    https://www.afr.com/politics/the-voting-virus-that-threatens-paul-keating-19950803-k6jn5
    ——————————————————
    +1 re Drew Hutton. An absolute political animal who saw the Greens as his ticket to a political career. I was a Qld State public servant at the time. I came across Hutton via work in two projects back then.

    First there had been a state proposal to turn most of Cape York into a national park, employing local Aboriginal people to act as rangers. It would have been a huge step forward for both the environment and native title. Yet Hutton ignored it in preferencing the Nationals, who killed the idea when elected.

    Second several of the Green targeted seats were in the path of a road project called the South Coast Motorway, which would have been built parallel to the Pacific Highway. Dutton and the protesters nicknamed it the Koala highway saying it would decimate koala numbers in habitat along the route.

    This turned out to be false. We got ecologists to study it. Turned out the koala numbers were misleading and the biggest killer of koalas were the dogs of rural property owners who lived along the route. Most of the protesting residents planned to subdivide their properties. They had no intention of saving the koalas.

    Makes you wonder how such a person got to achieve life membership of the Greens! It doesn’t sound like the sort of person who has dedicated their life to green causes. Quite the opposite, actually.

  15. Just migrated over to Firefox. I couldn’t do it. I can’t visit post here without my sweet, beautiful C+ Extension. God help me if it expires on this browser too.

  16. The New South Wales Liberal party will launch a court challenge after losing the Sydney seat of Bradfield, asking a judge to recount some of the ballots that led to independent Nicolette Boele’s 26-vote margin. Boele was declared the winner on 4 June, defeating the Liberal party’s candidate Gisele Kapterian after a month-long count. The seat has been held by the Liberal party since its creation in 1949.
    The Australian Electoral Commission initially said Kapterian won on the first distribution of preferences by eight votes, before a recount was ordered. The final result followed rulings on ballot formality. At the end of the recount, Boele had 50.01% of the total vote, ahead of Kapterian’s 49.99%.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jul/14/nsw-liberals-court-challenge-sydney-seat-bradfield-nicolette-boele-gisele-kapterian

  17. PB wouldn’t be PB without someone accusing somebody of “racism” on a daily basis. It sustains the place, makes the accuser feel a better person than the other fellow, and excites the blood far into the night.

    TPOF is usually a pretty readable commenter, but this time has lost his marbles on Gaza. He seems determined to characterise my post this morning as anti-Semitic. He goes through it line-by-line almost, parsing what I wrote always in the worst possible way.

    For one thing, I was accused of saying (what amounts to), “Fuck the Jews…”. In fact, the day before I quite specifically said,

    “F**k the lot of them, Jews and Muslims alike, including their stupid religions, and their delusions that their holy lands were given to each of them severally by God.”

    The point being that I can’t stand either side’s justifications for their barbaric actions.

    If I was writing a PhD thesis, or a book I’d go through the instances of Muslim dickheadery that I’ve observed lately, but I’m not doing either. Instead, I made a post on a blog, a comment on the current push to defund Australian universities because one particular very small (but very loud) section of our community is demanding it due to alleged anti-Semitism on behalf of some students and staff at said universities. I noted the “special” place Jews have reserved for themselves in Western consciences because of the Holocaust, to the exclusion of homosexuals, Gypsies, and political prisoners of the Nazis. I might also add the millions killed by Stalin in Russia, and the further millions killed by Japan in China, around the same time as the Holocaust was being perpetrated in Europe. All were badly done by.

    But not all are going about the systematic murder of their neighbours, the misappropriations of their homes and homeland, the ruination of their lives and livelihoods, the liquidation of future generations and the wholesale blackmail and corruption Western politics. That fundamentalist, US-based, eschatological Christian nutjobs are mixed up in all of this (because they believe that the Jews must re-establish the boundaries of King David’s Israel before Jesus can return – after which the Jews can “Get f**ked” all over again, incidentally) just makes it worse.

    I thought this was a place where you could express your point of view without being labelled as a racist for deviating from the warm and fuzzy “Exodus” movie version of Israeli history, where all the Jews wanted was a homeland, given to them by God, and to live at peace with their Arab brothers. It was a movie TPOF, not reality. A homeland is all the Arabs want, too. They believe God is on their side as well. Throw the fundamentalist Christian maniacs (who think both of the other two religions are wrong) into the mix, funding and arming most of it, and you do not end up with a recipe for happiness. They can’t all be right.

    Inventing thought crimes and closing universities does not help either. Quibble about the details, parse the hell out of it, twist what I write like a pretzel, but in the end you must concede I do have a point. Innocent children are dying by the thousands. How can that ever be justified?

  18. Upnorthsays:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 7:00 pm
    Bean says:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 6:44 pm
    Its all good Upnorth I think I get where you’re coming from now. I guess we disagree on that I think they made the right call . To me it seems like he has just fallen on the trans mind virus that seems to break a lot of people’s brains and the fact this has been ongoing for two years seems to me like they wanted to keep him and convince him to change his mind. His outreach with regional communities might have made him a good communicator in promoting social unity and weakening the power of the anti trans rhetoric that plays so well in those communities.
    中华人民共和国
    ==============
    Hey Upnorth…

    I notice you post this crap {中华人民共和国 } in just about every-one one of your stupid posts.

    How are trans-rights going in the Communist Republic of China?

    You are the site hypocrite!

  19. Kirsdarke she is a horrible POS, but more importantly her works suck. I say more importantly because if she had risen to the level of her actual literary merit, no-one would have heard of her and we wouldn’t be discussing (well mostly me shitposting into the void but I’m going to try and justify it to myself) her transphobic views. No I don’t care if it brings children joy.

    I think this is an important distinction and I give you the example of Diddy the diddler. An utterly talentless hack who obtained fame by sampling an execrable Phil Collins turd without permission, resulting in all royalties being paid to Collins. He then spun this ‘success’ into wealth and status through a career producing straight-to-VHS hip-hop which I assume people are now embarrassed to admit they listened to. Why does this matter? Because the music industry hype machine should have filtered this mediocre creep out, but instead people got raped at ‘freak offs’.

    I get that this is a long and weird bow to draw, but what I’m trying to say is Rowling is shit and should have been cancelled well early on the basis of being crap, rather than it ever having come to this.

  20. I can’t find an unpaywalled source, but AFR and SMH have articles up saying the Libs have launched a challenge on the Bradfield result.

  21. “I thought this was a place where you could express your point of view without being labelled as a racist for deviating from the warm and fuzzy “Exodus” movie version of Israeli history,”

    Not so warm and fuzzy when one considers what happens to the people of Jericho.

  22. Liberal candidate for Bradfield Gisele Kapterian has ended weeks of speculation and will on Tuesday lodge an appeal against the election outcome in the once blue-ribbon north Sydney seat.

    Kapterian fell short in Bradfield by 26 votes to teal candidate Nicolette Boele in a recount, leaving Bradfield the most marginal seat in the country. Kapterian won the initial count by eight votes.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/liberals-mount-court-challenge-in-last-ditch-bid-to-reclaim-bradfield-20250714-p5mewz.html

  23. While obviously not the worst effect of her views, one annoying thing about JK Rowling’s opinions being so prominent is it makes it hard to engage in a critical retrospective of the Harry Potter series. Because there’s a lot to unpack and analyse there that’s difficult to do when some will think you’re just increasing her prominence (and the money she makes) and others who will engage in a critical assessment but overcompensate and choose to make the most bad faith, scathing criticism of the series.

    Obviously it’s nothing compared to how her views affect trans people – especially those who grew up with her work and looked up to her. My gripe is trivial. But it’s still annoying.

  24. I’m an active Greens member in Victoria.

    As discussed with upNorth last week, while upNorth, with upNorth, my observation is that the inner city urban Greens are quite different to the leafy tree changer Greens (where I live). It is an interesting dynamic. To generalise, the regional tree huggers just want to hug trees. The inner city Greens want a revolution. I sit comfortably in both camps.

    A sizeable portion of the inner city Greens are in fact both young and gender diverse. IN the regions they are older and some are just a little TERFy. More than I am comfortable with. Indeed we have lost two branch members over the issue in the last 12 months.

    The first, an old green friend of mine in ‘regional’ Victoria found himself on the outer (a la Drew Hutton) with respect to this issue. He was ‘just asking questions’. I’ve tried to talk him around but he just can’t deal with it. He is a good guy in all other respects. The other bloke made my skin crawl. I didn’t bother trying to talk him down. He was just too far gone to even try. And talking to him was an ordeal… you know the type.

    It is always interesting to find the hill people choose to die on.

    It is a non-issue!!!!! FFS!!!!!

    Saving the planet is far more important.

  25. Edgepork David

    “ I can’t find an unpaywalled source, but AFR and SMH have articles up saying the Libs have launched a challenge on the Bradfield result.”

    If true, I think the NSW Liberals are as mad as the Victorian branch.

    Unless there is some evidence of error or wrongdoing it probably won’t succeed. If it does the judge might order another election. What will voters think of that?

  26. The Trump administration’s selection of Nick Adams, a self-styled “Alpha Male” author and social media provocateur, as the next US ambassador to Malaysia has triggered outrage in the Muslim-majority nation, with critics questioning the motives behind the decision.
    Washington announced on Thursday that Adams, who has a history of inflammatory remarks, had been selected for the diplomatic post. The decision has prompted alarm among diplomats and Southeast Asian observers, many of whom see President Donald Trump’s choice as prioritising political loyalty over diplomatic expertise.
    Adams, a naturalised American and former member of Australia’s Liberal Party before immigrating to the United States in 2012, has regularly courted controversy with his misogynistic remarks, Islamophobic tirades – such as the claim that Trump’s opponents sought to “teach Islam in schools” – and vocal support of Israel.
    Members of Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s ruling coalition have decried Adams’s appointment as an “insult” to the Muslim-majority country, especially its decades of support for Palestinian rights.
    https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/people/article/3318096/malaysia-lashes-out-trumps-pick-zionist-envoy-nick-adams-not-welcome-here

  27. Phil Coorey has the scoop..

    “After careful consideration of the two different results of the counts in Bradfield, we have taken the decision to go to the umpire,” Kapterian told The Australian Financial Review after lodging the petition on Monday.

    Kapterian said the challenge, which was lodged Monday evening and was still being processed, was in no way a reflection on the integrity of the electoral system, but “given the highly subjective nature of decisions relating to interpreting voter intentions”, she felt it necessary to have a judge scrutinise the disputed ballots.

    “We are requesting a targeted final examination of a small number of line-ball ballots that were reserved and considered by the Australian electoral officer during the counts,” she said.

    “In this instance, a final arbiter does exactly what the AEC officials were doing throughout the count: they look at a ballot paper to determine matters like whether a number is legible, or whether a five is an eight etc.

    “Pursuing this final step will provide collective confidence that the final result reflects the true wishes of the voters in Bradfield and remove any remaining doubt created by the two conflicting counts.

    “Every vote counts.”

    If the challenge is successful, the Liberals would lift their seat count to 44 nationally, and their NSW count from six to seven.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/every-vote-counts-libs-mount-challenge-against-bradfield-result-20250714-p5meul

  28. Socratessays:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 7:57 pm
    Edgepork David

    “ I can’t find an unpaywalled source, but AFR and SMH have articles up saying the Libs have launched a challenge on the Bradfield result.”

    If true, I think the NSW Liberals are as mad as the Victorian branch.

    Unless there is some evidence of error or wrongdoing it probably won’t succeed. If it does the judge might order another election. What will voters think of that?
    ============================================================

    If Kevin Bonham’s ALP 2PP is close to accurate plus the latest opinion polls. The ALP would be favourite to win that by election, assuming they poll above Boele at 3CP cut off.

    “4. In the case of Bradfield, for this article I use my own 2PP estimate of 50.64 to Labor”
    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/

  29. The Trump administration’s selection of Nick Adams, a self-styled “Alpha Male” author and social media provocateur, as the next US ambassador to Malaysia has triggered outrage in the Muslim-majority nation, with critics questioning the motives behind the decision.

    What’s to question? The fact that he has a history posting islamaphobic content is precisely the reason why he has been appointed to that particular position.

    He could’ve been sent to some Nordic or European backwater but what would be the point of that?

  30. Sydney Morning Herald:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/liberals-mount-court-challenge-in-last-ditch-bid-to-reclaim-bradfield-20250714-p5mewz.html

    ”… NSW Liberal members pushed for party bosses to fund a court challenge and indemnify

    Liberal candidate

    Kapterian in a bid to have her failed election result overturned, which could prompt a byelection.

    However, senior Liberals are pinning their hopes on the judge presiding over the Court of Disputed Returns examining several dozen ballots and ruling them invalid, and therefore declaring Kapterian the winner of the seat…”

    They want to roll the dice for a chance at overturning the result without a by-election (my interpretation).

  31. TPOFsays:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 8:08 pm
    BB

    You can criticise Netanyahu and the Israel government. You don’t need to invoke the Holocaust.
    ————————————————–

    Isn’t that hypocritical considering how often you do?

  32. It’s not ‘justified’ BB. It’s a fallacy to suggest that people are seeking that justification.

    The fact that keeps on getting forgotten by the people who want to use these issues for their own base political purposes, is that Australia has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the events that are happening in the middle east, never did, and likely never will. Most of these people are simply looking for a justification for screeching at someone. The rest of Australia is interested in the footy and every other such local event.

  33. I have to ask “upnorth”, about your constant postings of the Peoples Republic of China.
    You understand there are no trans, or gay, rights in that country. They lock them up in camps. There are no trans rights demo’s in Beijing. Got it bigot.
    Why your obsession with China?
    U anti gay? Be honest.

  34. @Holdenhillbilly Thank you.

    I’ve been waiting for developments in this case. I was pretty sure there were no substantive grounds relating to the conduct of the election; any complaint would have to come down to votes excluded from the count.

  35. Stoogey Lurker, Monday, July 14, 2025 at 6:54 pm:
    ————————

    SL, that post was brilliant. Thank you.

  36. Now, I previously accused the envoy sor antisemitism of soft thinking, and I don’t seem to be on my Pat Malone on that one. As ever, Mehreen Faruqi can be relied on to throw two bowers on the pile and trump anyone on the charge of soft thinking by some margin.

    How on earth does the PM have any “questions to answer”? He appointed someone to a position whose husband has directly opposing political opinions to his own. What’s wrong with that???

    The questions he has to answer are whether his Government will implement any of the plan. We are getting strong signals that they won’t have a bar of defunding Universities, stronger signals from the gutless wonders that run the joints I might add, which is a good thing that they’re listening to the right people. Part of their political appeal really.

    But arguing that the PM has “questions to answer” is avoiding that argument. It comes across that her problem is not that the broad and punitive measures would adversely affect a lot of people not involved in the issue, but the PMs “character” or something or other.

    The sooner the Greens change their slogan to “Middle class mediocrity lives here”, the better off we’ll all be.

  37. Pi
    “Most of these people are simply looking for a justification for screeching at someone.”

    To use your own words, it’s a fallacy to suggest that people are seeking that justification. If you aren’t interested in what is arguably the most interesting topic of the moment then by all means go watch some footy

  38. “I thought this was a place where you could express your point of view without being labelled as a racist for deviating from the warm and fuzzy “Exodus” movie version of Israeli history,”

    It’s funny you mention that actually, we watched the movie in school and I remember being shocked at how much of a role terrorism played in the founding of Israel. I’m not sure if it was the intention of the filmmaker but I felt bad for the Palestinians.

  39. It appears the Israeli coalition government is likely to fall.

    The issue? Ultra-orthodox men – the haredi – have been exempt from military service. Not anymore. This article from last week.

    The army on Sunday started summoning all 54,000 remaining eligible haredim for IDF service in the largest ever coordinated mass pursuit of that sector, in a campaign that will continue through July.

    These ultra-Orthodox will be called on to arrive for actual service by July 2026.

    This comes after 24,000 haredim were already summoned in split-up rounds of the last year, with very small results in actual haredim coming in for their military service, but under pressure by the High Court of Justice and public opinion to broaden the draft against the backdrop of unprecedented numbers of soldiers from all sectors being killed, wounded, and performing longer reserve service.

    https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-860157

    And apparently Bibi promised the ultra-orthodox MPs he would introduce a law rescinding the call-up. But he hasn’t delivered.

    https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-860630

    And Haaretz has this..

    Ultra-Orthodox parties to leave coalition this week if IDF draft exemption law not submitted in coming hours, party sources say

    Sources in the ultra-Orthodox parties told Haaretz on Monday that if a draft law exempting Haredi men from IDF service is not submitted in the coming hours, they will withdraw from the coalition and the government this week.

    According to the sources, marathon discussions have been taking place in recent hours at the homes of the ultra-Orthodox leaders regarding the question of withdrawing from the government.

    The sources also said that Shas chairman Arye Deri is behind the move but seeks to avoid being viewed as responsible for bringing down the right-wing government. They therefore claim that he is working to have the United Torah Judaism party lead the initiative, with Shas joining later on.

  40. Beansays:
    Monday, July 14, 2025 at 8:23 pm
    “I thought this was a place where you could express your point of view without being labelled as a racist for deviating from the warm and fuzzy “Exodus” movie version of Israeli history,”

    It’s funny you mention that actually, we watched the movie in school and I remember being shocked at how much of a role terrorism played in the founding of Israel. I’m not sure if it was the intention of the filmmaker but I felt bad for the Palestinians.
    ———————————————————

    I think they would have been Canaanites in those days. The ancestors of both modern Palestinians and Isrealis. With the tribes of Israel being Canaanite people who migrated to Egypt and lived there for many generations before returning. If you believe the mythology, which probably has grains of truth to it, but is mostly fictional I expect.

  41. “If the challenge is successful, the Liberals would lift their seat count to 44 nationally, and their NSW count from six to seven.”

    No, Phil Coorey. The Liberal National Party Coalition total seats would go up to 44. The libs by themselves only won 28. The Nationals won 15.

    He knows this. He is deliberately misrepresenting facts.

    But why would those fools challenge this? The punters hate elections. Forcing them to vote again, given their current popularity is a fool’s errand.

    I’m with Sprocket, the ALP would sit it out, in the unlikely event there was a byelection.

    ——–
    upNorth is many things, but a hypocrite he is not. His on-line persona is the genuine article.

    中华人民共和国

    ———

    JK Rowling’s contribution to young people’s fiction is unassailable.

    She personally brought reading, literature and imagination to billions of children. That is Dog’s work right there.

    I am so angry at her for being a filthy TERF!!!!!

  42. Pi we are literally in a military alliance with the main supporter of the genocide. If we can’t project influence on that then why are we even in their team? It doesn’t take a genius to see how terrible of an impact the slaughter has already had for not just the region, or the state of Israel, but also across the world. It will only get worse, and even worse yet if Israel succeeds as they will most likely turn against themselves.

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