DemosAU: 59-41 to Labor (open thread)

The third pollster to take to the field since the federal election gives Labor its strongest result to date.

DemosAU has published its first federal poll since the election, producing Labor’s strongest result to date: a two-party lead of 59-41, compared with an election result of 55.2-44.8, from primary votes of Labor 36% (34.6% at the election), Coalition 26% (31.8%), Greens 14% (12.2%) and One Nation 9% (6.4%). The accompanying release has breakdowns by gender, age, education and residential tenure. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 1199.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,443 thoughts on “DemosAU: 59-41 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 29
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  1. 26% – a fitting result for a party whose core policy is demonising renewable energy. Keep going guys, perhaps they will lose party status and become a luddite fringe group in the “others” column.

  2. Thanks for covering this poll William. Any one poll can be taken with a grain of salt but the combination of these three suggests very strong support towards Labor since the election and conversely a drop to very low levels for the LNP.

    Given this poll was done over Saturday/ Sunday it seems Albo’s leaked Curtain oration did no harm to Labor.

  3. The MOE is +/-3.6% but there’s no comfort for the LNP, showing a 5.8% loss in primary vote support.
    They’ve bled some votes to ALP, as well as PHON, & Greens improved too.
    The demographic breakdown is even more worrying, proving again their voter base is dying off each year.

    Missing is a breakdown of the LNP into its L & NP parts. Based on the last election results it’s likely the losses were from the Liberal portion.
    For younger voters the Libs are irrelevant .
    The party is on the road to oblivion.

  4. #weatheronPB
    Quiet rain last night,
    left its essence on the earth.
    Rising cool, damp air.

    A distant lover’s gift,
    a reminder from before,
    and a promise to restore.

  9. Hi ‘Fess,
    I’ve been installing my new Windows 11 computer (which is just my son’s old Windows 11 computer which I inherited after he bought a new one).

    So a general call out if I may to the exact name of the C+ Extension? Thanks in advance. 🙂

  13. Cat

    I liked the Curtain speech and thought it was good. But the talking heads in RW media questioned it. They were projecting their own views not the public’s.

  15. It is the modus operandi of Murdoch-associated and other RW talking heads to be paid sceptics and shills for the Boss Class. This means that we take what they say with a big lump of salt. Occasionally, upon close scrutiny, they may say something truthful, but that is a rare occasion indeed.

  16. Labor is winning ALL DemosAU demographic breakdowns – age, gender, education and residential tenure. No group of Australian voters wants a bar of the Coalition right now.

  17. Ugh. This:

    This extension is no longer available because it doesn’t follow best practices for Chrome extensions.

    I know ar put in a fix but it seems to have unfixed itself again. 🙁

  18. World News & Politics Patrol:

    Police raid headquarters of French far-right National Rally party: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/09/police-raid-headquarters-of-french-far-right-national-rally-party

    Trump announces 50% tariff on Brazil over Bolsonaro trial, ‘unfair’ trade: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/09/trump-brazil-tariffs-bolsonaro.html

    Ukraine catches Chinese spies trying to steal secrets of missile that sank Russia’s flagship: https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/07/09/ukraine-catches-chinese-spies-trying-to-steal-secrets-of-missile-that-sank-russias-flagship/

    Russia Reacts to Trump Saying He Threatened To Bomb Moscow: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-reacts-trump-saying-he-threatened-bomb-moscow-2096546

    Hegseth did not inform the White House before he authorized pause on weapon shipments to Ukraine, sources say: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/08/politics/hegseth-did-not-inform-white-house-ukraine-weapons-pause

    Russia Launches Record Drone Attack at Ukraine After Trump Calls Putin Out: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-war-drone-putin-trump-2096445

    Houthi rebels launch deadly attack on Red Sea cargo ship: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-10/houthis-blow-up-ship-in-red-sea/105514676

    Thames Water refuses to claw back bonuses paid using £3bn emergency loan: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jul/09/thames-water-paid-out-millions-in-bonuses-using-3bn-emergency-loan-documents-reveal

    Anglo-French talks over migration deal hanging in balance: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jul/09/anglo-french-talks-over-migration-deal-hanging-in-balance

    Some of Mamdani’s far-left allies want to primary Hakeem Jeffries and other NYC Democrats: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/09/politics/hakeem-jeffries-zohran-mamdani-democrats-primaries

    Zohran Mamdani leads general election poll for NYC mayor: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/09/zohran-mamdani-leads-general-election-poll-00443469

    Susan Collins Was Facing a Tough Re-Election Even Before Voting Against Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’: https://time.com/7301062/susan-collins-big-beautiful-bill-polls/

    In the latest installment in “Dude, What Law Did I Just Pass?” some Republicans were shocked to learn of a provision in Donald Trump’s behemoth budget bill that will tax gambling losses, HuffPost reported Tuesday: https://newrepublic.com/post/197733/republican-senators-stunned-rule-trump-budget-bill

    Jeffrey Epstein’s brother laughs at ‘stupid’ FBI memo defending controversial suicide ruling: https://www.foxnews.com/us/jeffrey-epsteins-brother-laughs-stupid-fbi-memo-defending-controversial-suicide-ruling-report

    Trump Commends Liberian President for Speaking ‘Such Good English.’ It’s Their Official Language: https://www.latintimes.com/trump-commends-liberian-president-speaking-such-good-english-its-their-official-language-586470

    FEMA’s response to Texas flood slowed by Noem’s cost controls: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/09/politics/fema-texas-flood-noem

    Far-right conspiracy theories spread online in aftermath of the Texas floods: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/09/texas-floods-conspiracy-theories

    Nvidia becomes first company to hit $4 trillion valuation: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/nvidia-becomes-first-company-worth-4-trillion-what-to-know-rcna217721

    Comey Tracked by Secret Service After Post Critical of Trump – After the former F.B.I. director put a picture on Instagram of seashells arranged to say “86 47,” law enforcement tailed his car and tracked his cellphone, steps usually reserved for serious threats: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/09/us/politics/james-comey-secret-service.html?unlocked_article_code=1.VE8.w55f.rrC8gPirU8SX

  19. Main item right now in the Guardian Australia ‘Australia News’ live blog:

    “Russia responsible for downing of flight MH17, human rights court rules”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/jul/10/australia-news-live-anthony-albanese-antisemitism-melbourne-chris-minns-sydney-ntwnfb

    The European court of human rights has found that the shooting down of flight MH17 using a missile supplied and transported to eastern Ukraine by the Russian Federation, resulting in the deaths of all 298 civilians onboard, was in breach of the European human rights convention.

    Flight MH17 was travelling from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur when it was shot down by a Russian surface-to-air missile while flying over eastern Ukraine in 2014 as fighting raged between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces. Among the victims were 196 Dutch citizens and 38 Australian citizens or residents.

    There are many Russians residing in Australia. What would Russia do in response, if our government rounded up 38 of them, lined them up against a wall in front of the cameras, and shot them all dead?

  20. This is a documentary review that gives insight into what has gone wrong in Brazilian politics in the past two decades. US style RW christian fundamentalists have risen to 30% of the populationm, and vote in blocs to dominate politics out of proportion to their numbers. They were behind the rise of Bolsonaro. Worth a read. We are talking Hillsong style churches where “pastors” own private planes.
    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2025/jul/09/apocalypse-in-the-tropics-review-how-brazilian-politics-succumbed-to-rightwing-fundamentalism

    Relevant to an Australian political party too IMO.

  22. “Businesses ‘cautiously optimistic’ as Albanese prepares to visit China”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/jul/10/australia-news-live-anthony-albanese-antisemitism-melbourne-chris-minns-sydney-ntwnfb

    Australia China Business Council’s president, David Olsson:

    “While everyone’s cautiously optimistic, I think we all recognise that the relationship remains somewhat fragile, and that’s why these regular government to government dialogues is just so important,”

    Thank goodness we have a Prime Minister, in Anthony Albanese, who remains undeterred by the knockers, and instead gets on with the serious business of shoring up our engagement with our largest trading partner.

  23. Further to that lead item in the Guardian Australia ‘Australia News’ live blog:

    “Russia has committed flagrant human rights abuses in Ukraine since 2014, rules ECHR:
    Extrajudicial killings, sexual violence and forced labour among accusations upheld by court in judgment”
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/09/russia-has-committed-flagrant-human-rights-abuses-in-ukraine-since-2014-rules-echr

    Russia has committed flagrant and unprecedented abuses of human rights since it invaded Ukraine in 2014, including extrajudicial killings, sexual violence and forced labour, the European court of human rights has found.

    The court’s grand chamber unanimously held that between 11 May 2014 and 16 September 2022, when Russia ceased to be a party to the European convention on human rights it had committed “manifestly unlawful conduct … on a massive scale”.

    Pro-Russia armed groups entered the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine in 2014 and Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022.

    In its judgment, published on Wednesday, the court said there was evidence of widespread and systemic use of sexual violence, accompanied by acts of torture, such as beatings, strangling or electric shocks. Civilians and prisoners of war were subjected to mock executions, the severing of body parts and electric shocks, including to intimate areas of their bodies, the court said.

    The depravity of these actions by pro-Russian militia and Russian armed forces makes me sick. They indicate a level of cruelty and savagery which, IMO, renders the perpetrators unable to any longer be dignified with the name of ‘human’.

    It is for this reason that I adamantly insist that any Russian soldier under arms in Ukraine must either: (a) surrender to the Ukrainian Armed Forces; (b) desert back to Russia; (c) refuse orders from their commanding officers; or (d) die.

  24. Further to the above, the ECHR found Russia guilty of the following crimes in Ukraine:

    – Indiscriminate military attacks.
    – Summary executions of civilians and Ukrainian military personnel.
    – Torture, including the use of rape as a weapon of war.
    – Unlawful and arbitrary detention of civilians.
    – Unjustified displacement and transfer of civilians.
    – Intimidation, harassment and persecution of all religious groups other than adherents of the historically Moscow-aligned Ukrainian Orthodox church.
    – Intimidation and violence against journalists and new laws prohibiting and penalising the dissemination of information in support of Ukraine.
    – Forcible dispersal by the Russian military of peaceful protests in occupied towns and cities.
    – Destruction, looting and expropriation of property.
    – Suppression of the Ukrainian language in schools and indoctrination of Ukrainian schoolchildren.
    – Transfer to Russia, and in many cases, the adoption there of Ukrainian children.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/09/russia-has-committed-flagrant-human-rights-abuses-in-ukraine-since-2014-rules-echr

    Russia is a rogue terrorist state and Putin is a genocidal war criminal. Any world leader who shakes that animal’s hand is an accomplice to those crimes after the fact and deserves absolute censure.

  25. The ECHR spoke specifically to Russia’s systematic use of rape in their invasion and occupation of Ukraine:

    The court said: “The prevalence of sexual violence and rape by Russian soldiers in occupied territory is especially abhorrent. The evidence shows the extreme violence of the circumstances in which women were raped or sexually assaulted and the intent to terrorise, humiliate and debase them … In addition to the impact on the direct victims, the raping of women and girls in the context of an armed conflict has also been described as a means for the aggressor to symbolically and physically humiliate the defeated men.

    “Rape or the threat of rape is also used to drive communities off lands or to heighten terror during attacks. The evidence also attests to the horrific sexual violence frequently perpetrated upon male detainees. The sexual abuse, torture and mutilation of male detainees is often carried out to attack and destroy their sense of masculinity or manhood.”

    The judges said that sexual violence and rape were deployed in Ukraine after the February 2022 invasion “as part of a military strategy to dehumanise, humiliate and break the morale of the Ukrainian population, as individuals and as a community, and to assert dominance over Ukrainian sovereign territory”.

    What kind of men are these Russians, to feel so strongly urged to assert their own masculinity by indulging in such brutal, bestial sexual behaviour of their own in this way?

  26. Steve

    “ Scanning the headlines, I see that The National Rupert is taking the USA’s side over pharmaceuticals.”

    In economic terms attacking the PBS really is a direst attack on Australia’s interests. Australia spends 10.5% of GDP on health whereas USA spends 16%. The PBS is one of the main differences.

    Chalmers is correct. In any trade negotiations with USA the PBS must be off the table. The saving from PBS is worth more than our entire defense budget (2.3%).

    The Australian these days is a rag not worth reading.

  28. newy boy, as much as I support and sympathize with the Ukrainian people, I very much doubt your “adamant insistence” will have any effect other than to make you feel better.

  29. Grok has gone full Nazi.
    https://www.npr.org/2025/07/09/nx-s1-5462609/grok-elon-musk-antisemitic-racist-content
    CEO of twitter has resigned.
    https://x.com/lindayaX/status/1942957094811951197
    Russia, Duma have passed a law allow the FSB to run their own prisons.
    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/07/09/russian-lawmakers-greenlight-restoration-of-fsb-run-prison-network-a89734
    Australia is to get 200% tariffs on pharmaceutical in one or is it 5 years time.
    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/video/us-threatens-200-tariffs-on-one-of-australias-largest-exports/ahpb12fh7
    Albo is to meet Xi
    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/anthony-albanese-confirms-meeting-with-chinese-president-xi-jinping-during-china-trip/news-story/e1419c003ef467c451528b5333767bbe
    People claiming XI is a puppet.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fnf7-KJj9OY

    The world has gone crazy. The inmates have taken over the asylum. Do the Liberals till want Albo to go and kiss the ass of the crazy uncle in the corner?

  30. A species of huge, flightless bird that once inhabited New Zealand disappeared around 600 years ago, shortly after human settlers first arrived on the country’s two main islands. Now, a Texas-based biotech company says it has a plan to bring it back. Genetic engineering startup Colossal Biosciences has added the South Island giant moa — a powerful, long-necked species that stood 10 feet (3 meters) tall and may have kicked in self-defense — to a fast-expanding list of animals it wants to resurrect by genetically modifying their closest living relatives.
    To restore the moa, Colossal Biosciences announced Tuesday it would collaborate with New Zealand’s Ngāi Tahu Research Centre, an institution based at the University of Canterbury in Christchurch, New Zealand, that was founded to support the Ngāi Tahu, the main Māori tribe of the southern region of New Zealand. The project would initially involve recovering and analyzing ancient DNA from nine moa species to understand how the giant moa (Dinornis robustus) differed from living and extinct relatives in order to decode its unique genetic makeup, according to a company statement.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/09/science/giant-moa-colossal-biosciences

  31. Fulvio, what I am getting at is that nobody should complain when Russian soldiers die in Ukraine. Those soldiers can defect, desert or conscientiously object to following heinous orders. Those who don’t, don’t deserve to be there.

  33. C@tmomma @ #17 Thursday, July 10th, 2025 – 8:03 am

    Ugh. This:

    This extension is no longer available because it doesn’t follow best practices for Chrome extensions.

    I know ar put in a fix but it seems to have unfixed itself again. 🙁

    C@t
    I have the C+ largely working in kiwi browser on my mobile, Firefox on my laptop.
    Might be worth trying those.

  34. For a bit of fun, and to further evaluate the usefulness of AI, I asked Google’s Gemini to compose a letter to the editor on an influential US newspaper to put readers in the true picture about Australia’s PBS. It did a good job!
    “To the Editor,

    Recent discussions in the United States regarding pharmaceutical pricing and potential tariffs on imports, including from Australia, highlight a critical misunderstanding of how some nations ensure affordable access to medicines for their citizens. As an Australian, I wish to offer a brief explanation of Australia’s Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) and why it should not be characterized as discriminatory.

    The PBS is a cornerstone of Australia’s universal healthcare system, designed to provide all Australian residents with timely, reliable, and affordable access to necessary prescription medicines. Its core objectives are simple: to reduce the financial burden of medication on individuals and families, ensure equitable access regardless of income, and maintain the long-term sustainability of the national health budget.

    When a new medicine is considered for inclusion on the PBS, it undergoes a rigorous evaluation by the independent Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC). This committee, comprising medical experts, health economists, and consumer representatives, assesses the medicine’s clinical effectiveness and safety compared to existing therapies. Crucially, it also evaluates the medicine’s “value for money” – that is, whether its benefits justify its cost to the Australian taxpayer. This isn’t about arbitrary price setting; it’s about ensuring that public funds are spent wisely to achieve the best possible health outcomes for the entire population.

    It is vital to understand that the PBS operates on a principle of non-discrimination. The criteria for listing and pricing medicines are applied equally to all pharmaceutical companies, regardless of their country of origin. The focus is solely on the medicine’s therapeutic benefit for Australian patients and its cost-effectiveness within the Australian healthcare system. Whether a drug is developed in the US, Europe, or Australia, it faces the same scrutiny and negotiation process. The aim is to secure a fair price for a medicine’s value to Australian society, not to disadvantage any particular supplier or nation.

    Australia’s PBS has successfully delivered affordable medicines and improved health outcomes for decades. Rather than viewing such systems as a threat, perhaps they offer valuable insights into how to balance innovation with accessibility, ensuring that life-saving medications are within reach for all who need them.”


  35. Oakeshott Country says:
    Thursday, July 10, 2025 at 8:39 am

    SMH reports that the Trump review will demand a higher price for the submarines AND a guarantee that Australia take part as a foreign interventionist against Red China if the armistice in the Chinese Civil War ends.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/if-we-go-to-war-submarines-come-too-how-us-could-demand-aukus-changes-20250706-p5mcu4.html

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-16/aukus-risks-trump-review-defence-four-corners/105412740

    What do you think Cat, we going to get the subs, or is the 500 million handed over pissed against the wall?

  37. 59-41 is a pretty good place for Labor to be. The margin of error would be about 3%, so it might be 56-44, which is still stronger than the election result. On the other hand, poll might be an outlier. We’ll see the trend in due course, but it looks like Labor has a handy buffer against the slings and arrows of “events”, unpopular but necessary decisions, scandals and stuff-ups (real and beat up).

    The National Rupert is setting out to wear down the buffer. The Trump Tariffs are Albo’s fault. Chalmers wants to tax superannuants like Henry VIII did (or something). Defence produces woke cookbook…

  38. Well public holidays here. Long weekend. Even the good folk of Thailand shout at the top of their lungs –

    Queenslander!

    Hope MABWM is ok after the Tucker I gave him last night.

  40. We all know that Trump sent letters to 14 countries earlier and 4 countries today regarding trade.

    According to Trump on Fox and to Press at WH, once he sent out letters to those countries, it is deal he made with them.

    I never knew making deals is easy, where you send a letter and deal is done.

    https://amp-cnn-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/07/09/business/tariff-trade-deadline-delay-trump-bessent?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17521027804369&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2025%2F07%2F09%2Fbusiness%2Ftariff-trade-deadline-delay-trump-bessent

  41. Steve777 they are completely out of touch with the electorate. Murdoch mouthpiece Sheridan’s editorial in the Australian says Trump is wrecking the US economy and so Albo should do more to suck up to him…? Courier Mail, 20 articles about the CFMEU with pictures of Steven Miles. Get a grip losers, the only thing wearing down is their relevance.

  42. The most important reason for Albo to meet Trump is that Albo will be able to get a one on one feel for the guy. Trump’s word is of course worthless, but it will let Albo get a gut feeling.

  44. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, July 10, 2025 at 7:16 am
    I can see no reason why the Prime Minister’s leaked Curtin Oration speech should have done ANY damage to Labor.
    ========================================================
    I am guessing that 99% of Australian voters would not even be aware of Albo’s speech.
    The 1 % who are would be rusted on political tragics anyway.

  46. From HH’s links at 8.08am

    Chumpistan Senators voted for the big beautiful bill that contained clauses about gambling tax breaks they didn’t know about. It’s not the first time it has been revealed that there were features they didn’t know about.

    But worse in my opinion, the article suggests that if you lose money gambling, you claim the loss on your tax return. Really?

  47. ”The most important reason for Albo to meet Trump is that Albo will be able to get a one on one feel for the guy. Trump’s word is of course worthless, but it will let Albo get a gut feeling.”

    I agree.

    Of course, they had a meeting arranged but Trump called it off.

  48. Oakshott at 8.39am.

    If those conditions on the supply of US subs is correct I think it is a good thing.

    We can now tell them to shove their subs up their arse, sideways.

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