A busy week of federal polling continued yesterday with a new result from YouGov, which had Labor’s two-party lead out from 51-49 to 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 36% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 8% (up one). Leadership ratings were not included on this occasion, but there was an Anzac Day-inspired question inviting respondents to choose between assertions that Australia “should be prepared to fight for our country’s values”, favoured by 46%, and that “we should be sceptical of politicians who want to commit troops to wars not necessary to the direct defence of Australia”, favoured by 42%. There was a marked tendency for younger respondents to favour the latter (44% to 34% among the 18-to-24 cohort) and older respondents the former (60% to 34% for those aged 65 and over). The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1514.
Results from a YouGov state poll for Queensland will be published at 2pm today in the Courier-Mail. UPDATE: For now it only offers the finding that 53% would prefer Steven Miles to Annastacia Palaszczuk as Premier and 47% vice-versa. Voting intention evidently to follow tomorrow morning.
@S. Simpson at 5:25pm
How so?
Kirksdarke we could have a debate on here about the similarities and differences between oranges and apples, but what’s the point? All you need to do is look at the historical record.
S. Simpson @ #194 Thursday, April 25th, 2024 – 5:26 pm
Yet that is the core of the Free Speech Absolutists argument. It’s why that clown and puppet of Clive Palmer, Ralph Babet, re-posted the graphic Bondi stabbing rampage videos, because of his supposed ‘free speech rights’. When all it really is is a malevolent agenda, using the rubric of ‘free speech’, to force governments to allow anything and everything into the media, social and otherwise. To the extent that we will lose control over being able to distinguish between what is real, what are facts and what is disinformation and propaganda. It will also coarsen the conversation in the public square to such an extent that people will become inured to atrocity. That’s not what I want. 100%
S. Simpsonsays:
Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 5:32 pm
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If you actually support a megalomaniac dictator like Putin?. Why are you worried about so called threats to western democracy?. As one of Putin’s aims is to bring it down anyway.
The Hitler comparison is thrown around these days like it means nothing. For example, comparing Netanyahu to Hitler is also just as absurd and offensive.
Yep, just another day in the tickety boo Russian military:
Timur Ivanov, Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, has been arrested by the Basmanny Court of Moscow on charges of receiving a bribe on an especially large scale.
According to the court’s press service, as reported by Interfax, Ivanov will remain in custody until June 23 as part of the ongoing investigation into his alleged involvement in a corruption scheme.
(msn.com)
And it is this corruption that goes to the core of why the Russian military machine is NOT all its propaganda cracks it up to be. Silly Westerners keep believing it though. 😐
Well for a start it’s pretty clear that both Hitler and Putin have similar goals in what they wanted/want to do to Ukraine.
S. Simpsonsays:
Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 5:25 pm
Comparing Putin to Hitler is outright hysterical, completely ridiculous offensive in the extreme, and just plain wrong.
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Z fascism has nothing in common with swastika fascism?.
Entropy you are putting words in people’s mouths again to serve your own ends. Apparently because I said that Putin isn’t as bad as Hitler therefore I must like Putin?
Entropy, it is probably no worse than Banderite fascism. All far-right ideologies can go to hell.
Parroting his propaganda is the reason you must like Putin.
The fact is that if Russian soldiers end up crossing the Dneiper and Ukraine ends up as a depopulated, dysfunctional, landlocked rump state (as per Mearsheimer’s prediction which I also believe) some people on this thread will still insist that this whole exercise in pumping billions into the MIC was worth it because we “degraded” the Russian military.
I love an ANZAC day draw. It means neither Collingwood or Essendon fans are happy.
William, I don’t like Putin at all. I wish Russia was a democratic state that respected human rights and free speech, rather than a corrupt authoritarian gangster state which it is under Putin. Putin is a bastard with no care for universal human rights, free speech or democracy. But just because Putin is a bastard doesn’t mean we shouldn’t criticise or question the actions or hypocrisy of our own side (the West).
The best news about Russia is that Putin turns 72 in October. He’s starting to run out of time.
I doubt the Russia State will cover up for an infirm Putin in his 80’s. Human frailty will be like blood in the water for the Russian elites.
Just minutes after you accused others of comparing apples with oranges, you suggested there was a parallel to be drawn between “Banderite fascism” and “Z fascism”, as if the former defined the Ukrainian state in like fashion to the latter vis-a-vis Putin’s regime.
Yeah you lost the argument at “banderite facism” Simpson.
S. Simpsonsays:
Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 5:48 pm
Entropy you are putting words in people’s mouths again to serve your own ends. Apparently because I said that Putin isn’t as bad as Hitler therefore I must like Putin?
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It was based on your post seeming to show some degree of support for him. Though i did word it as question not a statement.
“If you actually support a megalomaniac dictator like Putin?.”
I’m happy for you to clarify what your position on him is though. My current feeling is you at least have a pro-Russian Tankie like ideology. From the posts i’ve read but would be very happy to know you actually don’t.
The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, has labelled the eSafety commissioner’s demands for the global removal of footage of the alleged Wakeley stabbing as “silly”, a comment that appears to put him at odds with his deputy, Sussan Ley.
In an interview on Thursday, Dutton appeared to side with Elon Musk on a key part of the government’s dispute with X over online video of the incident, saying Australia “can’t be the internet police of the world” and that federal law should not influence what content can be seen overseas.
To be clear, I don’t buy into the Russian propaganda that the Ukrainian government is a Nazi-like or fascist regime. Banderites do have influence to an extent though with the government and military though which is disturbing. I am not even sure what the Z symbol represents, but my point was that there are fascist ideologies lurking on both sides.
@S. Simpson at 5:59pm
I’d liken that to John Curtin in April 1942 deciding to unconditionally surrender to Admiral Yamamoto aboard the Japanese Battleship Yamato in Sydney Harbour because fighting a war against the Japanese Empire is just too difficult and violent and such and we should just accept their rule.
Except he didn’t. As hard as it is to stomach, the world community should morally support Ukraine as much as it can, because Russia’s actions against it under Putin are not acceptable.
And even if Trump wins the election this year, pulls all funding from Ukraine and says “Meet you in Kiev in May for your victory parade, Vladimir~” those actions would be on him.
This is why Labor is heading for a increased 2nd term majority
The current federal lib/nats leadership team
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/25/sydney-church-stabbing-x-content-removal-elon-musk-peter-dutton-esafety-commissioner?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, has labelled the eSafety commissioner’s demands for the global removal of footage of the alleged Wakeley stabbing as “silly”, a comment that appears to put him at odds with his deputy, Sussan Ley.
Russia has lost the ability to mass manufacture military equipment. So all the heavy weapons destroyed – artillery, tanks, APC, helicopters – are basically irreplaceable. Yes, the can make a handful of tanks and guns but to make up for what has been lost will take decades. The industrial base that existed in Soviet times has been erased.
The same goes for the ammunition stockpiles that they had. If Russia was able to produce all of its own needs it would not be going to North Korea and Iran for supplies. The Soviet stuff was made for storing too – check out the youtube videos of how you open AK ammo with a can opener – but some of it has not been stored too well either. But once it is gone it is gone for ever.
It also does not help that a lot of the heavy industry needed to make the tanks, planes etc. was put by the Soviets in Ukraine. Take for example, the Russian space program relies upon rocket motor components made in Ukraine. Once they are out what they have in stock they will not be able to launch any more space missions.
Entropy and others, here is my view in a nutshell: I initially fully supported sending military support to Ukraine to fight off the Russian invasion UNTIL it became crystal clear that to me that Ukraine has no chance of winning, primarily down to
A. lack of manpower compared to Russia (which matters greatly in a war of attrition) and,
B. that the international community had no serious will in providing Ukraine with what if actually needs to drive the Russians out.
When these two things became clear to me my view shifted to that Ukraine should sue for peace. That’s where I stand today on this issue and those are the reasons for my stance.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/04/25/yougov-52-48-to-labor-open-thread-3/comment-page-5/#comment-4265965
As much as a I don`t like Dutton, trying to ban publication outside Australia is highly unlikely to work. Musk seems intent of fighting it and he could almost certainly make Australia trying to censor what an American website publishes in America a political issue in America and a foreign government censoring American websites in America is likely to have significant political opposition in America.
One minute the L/NP want to introduce a “misinformation” bill, the next minute they are saying it’s a bad bill and should be scrapped, the next minute they want to crackdown on social media, the next minute their leader is contradicting the deputy leader. The L/NP have no principles on anything and are Labor’s best asset.
Comparing Hitler with Putin is beside the point. Both are/were evil. However, Hitler is long gone and almost universally reviled, while Putin is with us now, a clear and present threat.
@S. Simpson at 6:24pm
The main problem with that is that any peace with Russia will be essentially a “Das vedanya! See you again in 3-4 years when we’ll be back to take the rest.”
Tom hard to see Australia being able to obtain jurisdiction in the US to restrict what X can publish in the US.
S. Simpson says:
Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 5:25 pm
Comparing Putin to Hitler is outright hysterical, completely ridiculous offensive in the extreme, and just plain wrong.
*************
So I take it you’re happy with the Trump – Petain comparison.
Kirksdarke, that can’t be ruled out and we need to be wary of that, however, one way of possibly avoiding that could be for NATO to sit down with the Russians, ask what their intentions are and go from there. I don’t believe that NATO has ever tried that, at least not formally anyway, even before the current war.
S. Simpson says Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 6:24 pm
And in 1941 many people were saying the UK had no chance either.
andrewmck, Trump was arguably harsher on Russia than Biden is so I am not sure about that comparison.
@S. Simpson at 6:45pm
I believe that Putin has made it quite clear that he wants to restore Russia to its 1914 Imperial borders, which involves invading Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia among others.
Granting him any of those just because he’s throwing a geopolitical tantrum would be ridiculous.
Remember when Penny Wong and Katy Gallagher were opposed to government advertising?
Now we have http://www.taxcuts.gov.au and an advertising campaign to match.
Do these ads actually have a positive effect for the govt of the day. Both sides seem to love doing them – so there must at least be a belief they do.
All of this noise by Labor and the Coalition, amplified by their mates in the mainstream media, about social media crackdowns is also intended as a distraction from both parties unwillingness to seriously deal with the cost of living crisis. Punters see right through it.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/04/25/yougov-52-48-to-labor-open-thread-3/comment-page-5/#comment-4265973
I agree. However, the E-Safety Commissioner is currently trying to get Twitter to take it down world-wide:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-24/esafety-commissioner-x-elon-musk-in-court-over-injunction/103760572
S.Simpson:
“Trump was arguably harsher on Russia than Biden”
Yep I’d say that’s arguable.
S. Simpsonsays:
Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 6:24 pm
Entropy and others, here is my view in a nutshell: I initially fully supported sending military support to Ukraine to fight off the Russian invasion UNTIL it became crystal clear that to me that Ukraine has no chance of winning, primarily down to
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While i don’t agree with your assessment and believe west should do all it can to support Ukraine with conventional weapons still. I’m glad to hear your views are not as extreme as i thought they may have been on this.
Notice that Putin is not too keen to get the Central Asian republics back. Too many of the wrong type of people? And not enough natural resources.
Trump greatly aided Putin and his regime by pressing his allies in Congress to delay over $60 billion of aid to Ukraine for several months.
C@t says,
And it is this corruption that goes to the core of why the Russian military machine is NOT all its propaganda cracks it up to be. Silly Westerners keep believing it though.
Have a look a Perun’s YouTube episode on Corruption in the military.
https://youtu.be/i9i47sgi-V4?si=pBgF5H-Dr24u2Rxg
Just on the earlier argument about who is worse Hitler or Putin, I think when you’ve murdered six million people – men women and children – in gas chambers and burnt their bodies in specially built furnaces, it takes a bit of topping.
Lars Von Trier
There is another problem not only for Dutton but Angus Taylor , since they can not give details on the nuclear thought bubble
The game changer in the budget – Premium in responsibly , the federal lib/nats will not be able to match it
Bystandersays:
Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 7:23 pm
Just on the earlier argument about who is worse Hitler or Putin, I think when you’ve murdered six million people – men women and children – in gas chambers and burnt their bodies in specially built furnaces, it takes a bit of topping.
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Can you point to any post saying Putin is worse than Hitler though?. Posts were comparing him to be like Hitler in some ways. I certainly don’t remember any post suggesting he is worse though. Though we have no idea what he might do if he gets full control of Ukraine and how draconian he may be willing to act to keep that established control. Hopefully he never gets control of Ukraine for us to find out though.
Scott, if rates go up again it’s good night Irene for Labor.
I think the dream was rates coming down in the run up to an election. That seems d.o.a as a scenario
No Lars Von Trier
‘B. S. Fairman says:
Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 6:23 pm
Russia has lost the ability to mass manufacture military equipment. So all the heavy weapons destroyed – artillery, tanks, APC, helicopters – are basically irreplaceable. Yes, the can make a handful of tanks and guns but to make up for what has been lost will take decades. The industrial base that existed in Soviet times has been erased.
The same goes for the ammunition stockpiles that they had. If Russia was able to produce all of its own needs it would not be going to North Korea and Iran for supplies. The Soviet stuff was made for storing too – check out the youtube videos of how you open AK ammo with a can opener – but some of it has not been stored too well either. But once it is gone it is gone for ever.
It also does not help that a lot of the heavy industry needed to make the tanks, planes etc. was put by the Soviets in Ukraine. Take for example, the Russian space program relies upon rocket motor components made in Ukraine. Once they are out what they have in stock they will not be able to launch any more space missions.’
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Probably the most important determinant of battlefield outcomes in Putin’s invasion is artillery.
The Russians have, in practical terms, an unlimited supply of tubes in reserve.
They are getting scads of shells from North Korea and possibly from China as well.
Various ratios are quoted but one that strikes me as probable is that the Russians outnumber Ukraine in artillery on the battlefield by about five to one.
Those with an interest in the delays inherent in gaggle politics (such as the delays the Greens are inflicting on Australia with respect to the AAT reforms) would know that delays are damaging.
Ukraine suffered a lot of casualties and losses of ground as a consequence of the GOP fucking around as if time were not of the essence. Whether the US aid will arrive quickly enough and in quantities enough for the Ukraine army to reset the front at ‘stalemate’ remains to be seen.
Scott – Dr Jim committed the govt to 2-3% inflation .
The last quarter was 1.0% and it averages 3.6% now
The markets are now saying no rate cuts in 2024
The truly important difference between Putin and Hitler is that Putin is alive.