YouGov: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)

The fifth federal opinion poll of the week is the best of the bunch for Labor.

A busy week of federal polling continued yesterday with a new result from YouGov, which had Labor’s two-party lead out from 51-49 to 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 36% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 8% (up one). Leadership ratings were not included on this occasion, but there was an Anzac Day-inspired question inviting respondents to choose between assertions that Australia “should be prepared to fight for our country’s values”, favoured by 46%, and that “we should be sceptical of politicians who want to commit troops to wars not necessary to the direct defence of Australia”, favoured by 42%. There was a marked tendency for younger respondents to favour the latter (44% to 34% among the 18-to-24 cohort) and older respondents the former (60% to 34% for those aged 65 and over). The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1514.

Results from a YouGov state poll for Queensland will be published at 2pm today in the Courier-Mail. UPDATE: For now it only offers the finding that 53% would prefer Steven Miles to Annastacia Palaszczuk as Premier and 47% vice-versa. Voting intention evidently to follow tomorrow morning.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,485 comments on “YouGov: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. I am gobsmacked by this statement from Bishop Mar Mari Emmanuel …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/apr/25/australia-news-live-anzac-day-police-raids-sydney-anthony-albanese-bondi-stabbings-terror-threat?page=with:block-66299fad8f08b7ccbb88c57a#block-66299fad8f08b7ccbb88c57a

    I do not condone any acts of [alleged] terrorism or violence. However, noting our God-given right to freedom of speech and freedom of religion …

    He believes God gave us the right to freedom of religion?

    Words fail … 🙁

  2. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 7:53 am
    Frednk
    White is not modern Australia but what the ANZACs fought for was.
    Australia’s reward for 60,000 dead was some trust territories and international acquiescence to the White Australia Policy.
    ————-
    That’s an odd reading of history when WWI wasn’t about being white and Australia was only there because British was.

  3. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 7:53 am
    Frednk
    White is not modern Australia but what the ANZACs fought for was.
    Australia’s reward for 60,000 dead was some trust territories and international acquiescence to the White Australia Policy.
    =================================================

    Much happier to see a greater concentration on Kokoda then Gallipoli. The Choco’s are better representation of the Australian spirit. Then those used and tricked by the European powers to fight a poorly planned landing at Anzac Cove. The Choco’s were actually fighting to protect Australia. They were much maligned and derided by the ADF establishment as reject soldiers. Yet they held out until the 9th Division was allowed to return home by the Imperial power that thought it owned them. Without any fleet transport protection by the English too. I much prefer Choco’s as front and centre of any celebration of Australia’s fighting spirit than ANZAC’s for this reason.

  4. nadia88:

    “Very true Oliver, and I’d say the Greens are in with a chance to pick up two additional seats being McConnel & Cooper.”

    Do you mean Macnamara?

  5. Badthinkersays:
    Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 8:57 am
    Murdoch rags especially Janet Albrechtsen doesn’t have any shame.
    They tried to destroy the victim because they felt she could be destroying their beloved party with some serious allegations. (You can see that FUBAR’s criticism of Higgins.)

    If anything, The Australian‘s reporting of the scandal reinforced the public perception of a Liberal Party cover up.
    As it turned out, there was never any such cover up, though strangely, the ‘Anti Labor’ Murdoch masthead hasn’t dwelt on that undoubted truth.
    ====================================================

    The new LNP cover up is to pretend there was no cover up. By quoting the words of Justice Lee. Which only specifically refer to the the actions of Fiona Brown during the week following the rape. By pretending they actually apply to the whole period following the rape and to all the LNP operatives involved during that period. They are in fact covering up the real facts. As they don’t apply to anyone but Fiona Brown and her actions in the week following the rape. As that was what Justice Lee was referring to and it was only evidence that was examined on this issue too. No other Liberals and no other time period was examined on this issue. So it would be impossible for exoneration of them or their action to have been exonerated by Justice Lee. If their actions were never examined in court.

  6. The Vienna Military Museum houses the relics of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, ie the car he was driving in, the uniform he was wearing when shot and the couch he died on.

    What is powerful about it you view the relics and then you go through a doorway into the WW1 exhibit which makes the point his death led directly to 10m deaths in WW1 and indirectly WW2 and 50 m deaths.

    one of the most consequential conspiracies and assasinations in history.

  7. Does this sound familiar?

    For days ministers have insisted that the march through central London should not proceed out of respect for commemorations being held on 11 November.

    In a thinly veiled attack on the Met police commissioner, Sir Mark Rowley, over his decision not to ban the march, the home secretary, Suella Braverman, accused the police of taking a tougher approach to rightwing groups than to “pro-Palestinian mobs displaying almost identical behaviour” in an article on Wednesday.

    “It may be that senior officers are more concerned with how much flak they are likely to get than whether this perceived unfairness alienates the majority,” Braverman wrote in the Times. “The government has a duty to take a broader view.”

  8. Tricot @ #102 Thursday, April 25th, 2024 – 11:20 am

    We in WA are still waiting for our main Anzac event to take place………….
    Apropos ANZAC ……I have been fortunate to live in a time of relative peace – thanks (largely) to the sacrifice of the WW2 generation. I have been able to visit many of the sites/sights of conflict from Anzac Cove, to the Western Front and Asian countries.
    The vast array of white crosses in Flanders is a view I will never forget.
    It makes one sad to see how young most of those who died were – and makes one angry about the sheer waste of life for causes which, today, I find offensive- especially in WW1.
    In the totally rebuild of the Town Hall in Ypres there is a comment that WW1 was “The war to end all wars” but on a wall there is a show of all the dozens conflicts – world wide – which have occurred since 1918.
    It is a cliche, but when will we ever learn?

    Richard Attenborough & Len Deighton nailed it in 1968..
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_LhOO6Q6p8

  9. Cooper is a state seat in Queensland as well as a federal seat in Victoria (named after different Coopers). I’d agree that the Queensland one is a good chance for the Greens – even if their own vote is unchanged, a primary vote swing of 5% from Labor to LNP would drop Labor to 3rd and elect the Greens on their preferences.

    (The federal seat – which is my home turf – is pretty safe for Labor as long as Ged Kearney is around, but will be a serious contest when she retires).

  10. Mexicanbeemer @ #102 Thursday, April 25th, 2024 – 11:29 am

    Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 7:53 am
    Frednk
    White is not modern Australia but what the ANZACs fought for was.
    Australia’s reward for 60,000 dead was some trust territories and international acquiescence to the White Australia Policy.
    ————-
    That’s an odd reading of history when WWI wasn’t about being white and Australia was only there because British was.

    Peter Cochrane is an historian I greatly respect:
    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/books/fight-for-the-white-race-was-at-the-heart-of-our-world-war-i-policy-20180718-p4zs5b.html

  11. Macnamara is probably no longer as high a chance any more due to the high Jewish population and the Greens stance on Gaza. What will win them votes in some parts will lose them in others.

  12. I have been doing the family search thing recently and discovered a great Uncle who was killed at Lone Pine. He was only 22 and had been at Gallipoli for two weeks. What a tragedy.
    My family is littered with military service in futile wars since the Napoleonic wars. Apart from my Great Uncle all survived. Scarred physically and emotionally but alive.

  13. I was surveyed this morning. Don’t know who the survey company was. Wide ranging political views survey including voting history, voting intension and key issues (cost of living, immigration etc).
    Looked pretty standard/legit except for the section on views about nuclear energy.
    There were quite a few nuclear energy questions including the following:

    1. Australia is the only one of the world’s 20 largest economies to either not have nuclear energy, or be moving towards it. Australia should be taking steps towards developing nuclear energy here.

    2. As much as 90% of Australia’s baseload power, generated by coal, is due to leave the system by 2035. We should take steps toward developing nuclear energy, to fill this gap.
    These all required a response of Strongly Agree, Agree, Neutral, Disagree or Strongly Disagree.

    This looked to me like push polling on this issue (not the rest of the survey).
    I wonder how much this sort of polling is influencing the narrative that the majority of Australians support nuclear energy?

  14. “Badthinker” would have us believe the LNP have been exonerated over a cover up on the Higgins rape. Did Justice Lee examine what any Liberal person knew or did about it but Fiona Brown?. Yet in the exoneration of Fiona Brown’s actions by Justice Lee. “Badthinker” would have you believe all LNP operatives have been exonerated on this issue. Which is far from the truth. Let’s take the PMO’s office for instance. Morrison commenced numerous internal inquiries into what the PMO’s office knew and did in relations to the Higgins rape. None of which ever saw the light of day. Nothing says a cover more than when all the investigations into a cover up get covered up too. In fact in the Australian lexicon nothing says the outcome of a claytons inquiry designed to mask and divert from the facts. Then the term a “Gaetjens report”.

  15. Oliver Sutton says Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 6:52 am

    ‘AFP reviewing whether police leaked material from Bruce Lehrmann’s criminal trial’

    Well, sort of …

    “Without me getting technical, there is not an investigation,” Kershaw continued. “But reviewing the material to see if there is a threshold for an investigation.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/25/afp-review-bruce-lehrmann-criminal-trial-leaked-material-allegation-ntwnfb

    Let’s see:
    . The material was leaked
    . A witness has testified under oath that Bruce Lehrmann was the source of the leak
    . Bruce Lehrmann is known to be a cad, at least according to the courts

    Unless the AFP threshold for investigating leaks is only those the Government really doesn’t like, I would think this should be sufficient to cross the threshold.

  16. Victoria says Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 9:20 am

    Comment on twitter. Which aligns with my thinking I’ve had for years, that Trump will be found to be a bona fide traitor to his country and by extension to its allies.

    ———-++++
    A friend of mine messaged me today, saying, “…it’s now documented that Trump would get paid by Pecker for rumors and salacious stories about celebrities and whatnot while on The Apprentice. So, Trump sells information to others for money. This is just too right on the nose. $10k here. $30k there. All for stupid, unimportant celebrity gossip. Wonder how much he charged for state secrets? Nuclear info? Two Billion, maybe?”

    It’s one of those truths that slams you right between the eyes.

    I wonder if he declared that income on his tax return (or the US equivalent).

    There would be a secondary benefit to doing this for Trump, the paper’s hardly likely to attack a valuable source.

  17. Lars Von Trier says Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 11:50 am

    The Vienna Military Museum houses the relics of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, ie the car he was driving in, the uniform he was wearing when shot and the couch he died on.

    What is powerful about it you view the relics and then you go through a doorway into the WW1 exhibit which makes the point his death led directly to 10m deaths in WW1 and indirectly WW2 and 50 m deaths.

    one of the most consequential conspiracies and assasinations in history.

    We might get back to Vienna in a couple of years. I might add that to the itinerary. Thank you.

  18. Franz Ferdinand’s uniform still has the blood on it. It was actually bullet proofed with silk but the bullet struck in the collar area which was not protected and cut the artery in the neck.

  19. e.g.w.says:
    Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 12:06 pm

    “Australia is the only one of the world’s 20 largest economies to either not have nuclear energy, or be moving towards it. Australia should be taking steps towards developing nuclear energy here.”
    ==================================================

    I don’t believe this statement is true either. I’m pretty sure Germany and Italy are in the top 20. Both don’t have nuclear currently and certainly not moving towards it. As both got rid of it. There could be more but Italy and Germany spring to mind.

  20. My grandfather joined up in 1916 and served in Europe. I’ve seen his military record and it’s rather large – full of charges and fines. He was gassed in 1917, treated in England and returned to the front in early 1918.

    He died before I was born. I only heard two stories from my father. One was when my grandfather and a mate took the socks of someone they didn’t like and filled them with sand before a training march (it was explained to me that this meant the guy was carrying a couple of extra pounds in his backpack). The second I won’t repeat.

  21. An Arizona grand jury on Wednesday indicted seven attorneys or aides affiliated with Donald Trump’s 2020 presidential campaign as well as 11 Arizona Republicans on felony charges related to their alleged efforts to subvert Joe Biden’s 2020 victory in the state, according to an announcement by the state attorney general.

    Those indicted include former Trump White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, attorneys Rudy Giuliani, Jenna Ellis, John Eastman and Christina Bobb, top campaign adviser Boris Epshteyn and former campaign aide Mike Roman. They are accused of allegedly aiding an unsuccessful strategy to award the state’s electoral votes to Trump instead of Biden after the 2020 election. Also charged are the Republicans who signed paperwork on Dec. 14, 2020, that falsely purported Trump was the rightful winner, including former state party chair Kelli Ward, state Sens. Jake Hoffman and Anthony Kern, and Tyler Bowyer, a GOP national committeeman and chief operating officer of Turning Point Action, the campaign arm of the pro-Trump conservative group Turning Point USA.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/04/24/arizona-2020-election-charges-meadows-giuliani-ellis/

  22. We have a homelessness crisis

    We have a DV crisis

    We have a CoL crisis

    The PM needs to stop with the celebrity stunts, the rock star photo ops, the brand management and get back to the office and get to work on coordinating some real solutions.

  23. Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 8:28 am
    We need to think seriously about changing some of our medals.
    The Victoria Cross is one such, and the most important.
    It is tied to a colonial and imperial heritage which is increasingly irrelevant to the majority of the population.
    The cross is also a christian symbol.
    Around half of the population is secular.
    Much of the religious population do not follow the cross.
    We need the ADF to be representative in the broadest sense – across genders and reflective of our multicultural nation.
    It can’t do that if the highest individual battle honour is compromised.

    —————
    You’re a bit like Pol Pot ….. you want your year zero.

    Or the Chinese Red Guard with their war against “The Four Olds: ‘old ideas’, ‘old culture’, ‘old customs’, and ‘old habits.”

    There is something pathological about the need to obliterate the past for a self-righteous present. Particularly when it’s other peoples’ past

  24. bcsays:
    Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 12:09 pm
    =============================================

    According to the article they investing if the AFP leaked it. As Bruce is not AFP he falls outside that remit. This appears more a sort of inquiry designed to exonerate the AFP than catch a culprit though.

    While maybe i’m being harsh on them. If the below statement is taken as the terms of reference of this claytons inquiry. I’m probably not.

    ‘AFP reviewing whether police leaked material from Bruce Lehrmann’s criminal trial’

  25. Being ANZAC Day it’s worth revisiting the Taipan crash & why the helicopters were grounded & destroyed when the fault lay with the night vision headset.. by the time the independent enquiry led by Justice Margaret McMurdo is over there will be another reason to stop wasting money on the ADF..

    “Army Aviation had been in receipt of a series of reports identifying systemic problems with the helmet-mounted sight display, the TopOwl image intensifier and the forward-looking infrared system for the Taipan helicopters – a series of concerns raised in reports from 2020 onwards. That’s right, isn’t it?” Senator Shoebridge said.

    “(You received) a formal report, from the Army Aviation Test and Evaluation Section that says the helmet-mounted sight display for the Taipan helicopter was a substantial risk of multiple deaths due to controlled flight into terrain and that the display of ambiguous aircraft attitude (aircraft orientation relative to Earth’s horizon) in the helmet-mounted sight display was an unacceptable risk to flight safety.

  26. Is it just me or is the One Day of the Year changing again.
    The mindless, commercial Anzackery that has been prominent for the last 20 years seems to be dissipating and being replaced by ennui. No doubt there will be a surge as the last WWII veterans die in the next 5 years but maybe Anzac Day will then fade away.

    (I don’t watch much TV but do McDonalds still have an ad where “an angel in a polyester uniform” thanks a WWII veteran and gives him a free cup of shit coffee?)

  27. Rikali, I highly doubt BW is suggesting we literally go back and modify/destroy historic medals. I agree that our current symbols need to be redesigned to match modern Australian culture. Changing does not mean destroying history, and its a sad little strawman used all too often by the right.

  28. No doubt there will be a surge as the last WWII veterans die in the next 5 years but maybe Anzac Day will then fade away.

    Dunno about that. I just drove past The Clock hotel in Surry Hills and the queue of mostly young people to get in to play 2-up was right down the street. There must’ve been hundreds of people lined up to join the already packed venue.

  29. Rex Douglassays:
    Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 12:27 pm
    We have a homelessness crisis

    We have a DV crisis

    We have a CoL crisis

    The PM needs to stop with the celebrity stunts, the rock star photo ops, the brand management and get back to the office and get to work on coordinating some real solutions.
    =================================================

    It is actually a public holiday. Are you proposing we all work on our public holidays?. Work life balance is very important to mental good health. Which is probably also a contributing factor to DV?.
    So less the angry man with constantly negative and angry rants. As this is exactly one of the mental health issues that need dealing with here. Particularly those on social media doing it. As it appears to encourage others, to also be spiteful and angry about whatever issue that annoys them.

    According to Rex if your not in the office you are not making a valuable contribution. When did Rex become the poster boy for the workaholic ethic?.

  30. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 12:20 pm
    “Lest we forget”

    Living in Paddington ( Sydney) we have have 20+ pubs at last count.. most are more than overflowing ( huge queues in street) with 20 somethings about to get pissed & ugly.. Lest We Forget indeed.. an ugly day. Another thing Howard fucked up with his dog whistle

  31. Lordbairn

    I do not oppose change per se but the argument for change is often a prelude not to forging something new/unique to Australia but just the lazy introduction of more shit from America.

  32. Confessions @ #130 Thursday, April 25th, 2024 – 12:36 pm

    No doubt there will be a surge as the last WWII veterans die in the next 5 years but maybe Anzac Day will then fade away.

    Dunno about that. I just drove past The Clock hotel in Surry Hills and the queue of mostly young people to get in to play 2-up was right down the street. There must’ve been hundreds of people lined up to join the already packed venue.

    That sounds like we are returning to the ANZAC Day of the 1960s.
    Possibly less preferable than the one of the 2000s

    The worst day of my life was being a casualty officer at Concord Repat on Anzac Day 1979.

  33. Entropy: ““Badthinker” would have us believe the LNP have been exonerated over a cover up on the Higgins rape. Did Justice Lee examine what any Liberal person knew or did about it but Fiona Brown?. Yet in the exoneration of Fiona Brown’s actions by Justice Lee. “Badthinker” would have you believe all LNP operatives have been exonerated on this issue. Which is far from the truth. Let’s take the PMO’s office for instance. Morrison commenced numerous internal inquiries into what the PMO’s office knew and did in relations to the Higgins rape. None of which ever saw the light of day. Nothing says a cover more than when all the investigations into a cover up get covered up too. In fact in the Australian lexicon nothing says the outcome of a claytons inquiry designed to mask and divert from the facts. Then the term a “Gaetjens report”.”
    ———————————————————————

    If you read Justice Lee’s verdict, he not only stated clearly that Ms Brown had acted properly, but he also was extremely scathing about how the theory of a cover-up was presented on The Project in terms of Reynolds and others supposedly telling Higgins to forget about the rape or forget about her career. He said pretty clearly that he considered that it had no basis in fact.

    As I read his verdict, he really didn’t leave any scope for someone to develop a theory of a cover-up that somehow bypassed Fiona Brown.

    I struggle to think of a reason why Reynolds and co, or Cash, or Morrison would have wanted to have covered the story up. No media/public relations adviser worth their salt would dream of suggesting it, because it is clearly such an incredibly bad idea.

    What’s your theory as to why they might have wanted to cover it up?

  34. OC:

    All the pubs on Redfern St were open when I drove past just after 10am. I guess today is the only socially acceptable day when you can drink beer before midday.

  35. The medals we have are crosses, stars and circles. They are just shapes. Are you suggesting we should add some squares and triangles?

  36. Confessionssays:
    Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 12:36 pm
    No doubt there will be a surge as the last WWII veterans die in the next 5 years but maybe Anzac Day will then fade away.

    Dunno about that. I just drove past The Clock hotel in Surry Hills and the queue of mostly young people to get in to play 2-up was right down the street. There must’ve been hundreds of people lined up to join the already packed venue.
    ________________
    Could they have gone for the Gunfire Breakfast?

  37. Who can blame people for wanting to play two up? Or to drink beer at 10 in the morning? You’re all sounding like a pack of wowsers.

  38. Is Surrey Hills close to the start of the Sydney March? Don’t know Sydney well.

    In the days we marched with bands in the 80s and 90s the pubs were always open near the start of the march

  39. meher babasays:
    Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 12:44 pm
    What’s your theory as to why they might have wanted to cover it up?
    ========================================================

    She was raped on the 23rd of March 2019. The election was due in a few months time. It would hardly be a good look for the LNP to have the allegation that one Liberal staffer raped another coming out just before an election. It was hardly a good look coming out anytime but just before an election would be the worst of all.

  40. Scratch a rusted on, there’ll be an unreco0nstructed Wowser underneath.
    Bogan, it’s their favourite word to describe ordinary Aussies.

  41. Is Surrey Hills close to the start of the Sydney March? Don’t know Sydney well.

    Yes, Surry Hills is in the inner city.

  42. You left out the prawns. My Uncle would go to the local RSL after the march to drink beer with his mates, play 2 Up and eat bucket loads of prawns. Ah, the back lanes of Inner Sydney after that lot. 😉

  43. Entropy: “She was raped on the 23rd of March 2019. The election was due in a few months time. It would hardly be a good look for the LNP to have the allegation that one Liberal staffer raped another coming out just before an election. It was hardly a good look coming out anytime but just before an election would be the worst of all.”

    I don’t buy it. Yes, a story about one staffer raping another wouldn’t have been great, but I doubt that the ALP would have made much play of it because, there but for the grace of god and all that.

    Any cover up based on trying to bully the victim to remain silent and not go to the police, would be a far worse story: as indeed it was when an allegation along those lines was eventually made in 2021. It would have been an incredibly stupid thing to do, and Morrison (who has a background in PR), Reynolds (whose husband is a PR guy) and their advisers simply weren’t that stupid.

    And, as far as I can make him out, Justice Lee said pretty conclusively that the allegation of a cover-up had no basis in fact.

  44. Laughtong
    Probably a 20 minute walk from the end of the march but from ‘fess’s description I don’t think many of them had much to do with the march or the military in general.
    Just an excuse for early beers and yet another exotic form of gambling.

  45. meher babasays:
    Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 1:21 pm

    “I don’t buy it. Yes, a story about one staffer raping another wouldn’t have been great, but I doubt that the ALP would have made much play of it because, there but for the grace of god and all that.”
    _____________________________________________________

    In a Ministers office in Parliament House in the early hours of a Saturday morning!!
    Come on. If that did not make the front page in every State nothing would.
    “Womens” issues were dragging like an anchor even then.

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