Reports continue to suggest both parties expect a tight result in the Dunkley by-election, which this site will be over like a rash during counting tomorrow evening, being likely the only place that will publish results at booth level as they are reported. The Australian reports Liberal internal polling pointing to a swing of about 5%, just short of the 6.3% needed to win. Labor is reportedly concerned that its chances will be harmed by low turnout: as of Wednesday, 15.15% of enrolled voters had cast early votes, which compares with 17.93% and 17.08% at the same stage before last year’s by-elections in Aston and Fadden.
Other electoral news of the last week:
• A weekend Liberal preselection vote for the Perth seat of Curtin, which the party lost to teal independent Kate Chaney, resulted in a 192-64 vote win for Tom White, former Uber chief executive in South Korea and staffer to state MP Peter Collier, ahead of Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter now employed in government relations at naval shipbuilder Luerssen Australia.
• Michelle Grattan of The Conservation quotes a Labor sources saying it is “highly unlikely” the party will contest the by-election for Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook, the date for which remains to be confirmed. Reports increasingly indicate Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce, initially presumed the front-runner, faces stiff competition from Simon Kennedy, McKinsey partner and unsuccessful Bennelong candidate. Pesce has mostly moderate backing, including from state party leader Mark Speakman, while Simon Kennedy has mostly conservative supporters including Tony Abbott and Dominic Perrottet, although an exception appears to be moderate Senator Dave Sharma. Rounding out the field of four are Gwen Cherne, veteran family advocate commissioner, and the little-fancied Benjamin Britton, an army veteran and former United Australia Party candidate. The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports ANZ banker Alex Cooke, whose campaign slogan would have written itself, has withdrawn.
• A suggestion that Liberal moderates including powerbroker Michael Photios hope to persuade independent Wentworth MP Allegra Spender to join their party and faction in the “medium term”, potentially with an offer of a front bench position, has received short shrift from the proposed target. The Financial Review reports those concerned are “unconvinced it will be possible to wrest the once safe Sydney seat away from her”, and believe her 4% margin “has grown since she entered parliament”.
Cat, an example:
Insurance for my 13yo Hyundai i30 is up 21% this year. The insurance bill is now about 1/6th the value of the vehicle. That’s insane, and it’s hardly a case of wanting to have it all.
ParkySP says:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 9:31 pm
Rainman. “hung drawn and quartered”?FMD. That’s as stupid a thing I’ve read.
———————————————————————-
You must not read much.
And, actually I said crucified. Maybe, if you read more you’d know the difference.
And I was being figurative, whereas you are just being a dick
Dutton to flick nuclear switch in pre-budget battle(the Oz)
The Opposition Leader is set to unveil the Coalition’s signature energy policy, including a plan identifying potential sites for small modular nuclear reactors.
Im sure all the sites will be in Labor electorates.
Another change of ends in the tie break.
Oz (Albrectsen) reporting Reynolds settled handsomely with ACT government over DPP’s comments about her.
Glad they’re revealing it with plenty of time for the gov to get public servants to cost how ridiculously expensive it will be, and for plenty of commentary on how none of the SMRs are actually deployed and are all severely over budget.
“ The ACT government has apologised to former Liberal minister Linda Reynolds and paid substantial damages over accusations by former chief prosecutor Shane Drumgold during Bruce Lehrmann’s rape case that the senator had engaged in “disturbing conduct” that included political interference in the police investigation.
Senator Reynolds launched defamation action in December in the wake of findings by the Sofronoff board of inquiry that Mr Drumgold’s allegations against her were baseless and “grossly unethical”.
The settlement is believed to be the fifth successful legal action by the former defence minister over allegations against her,”
Good. There’s a few posters here who should take note – but they probably aren’t worth anything.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/linda-reynolds-wins-apology-and-damages-over-shane-drumgold-political-interference-slur/news-story/be68cebd993c9e9ded95e6f688fb3606
Dutton knows nobody will build SMRs here in the near future. So if he isn’t coming up with and budgeting for massive federal subsidies for them, this is just more of the same anti renewable and pro coal and pro climate change energy policy we have seen from these c@nuts for 2 decades.
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 9:37 pm
I’m not seeing a Cost of Living Crisis. I’m seeing a, Everything Has a Cost Crisis of Decadence. And people just want to be able to have it all.
_____________________
What’s your tip on the % increase in Health Insurance premiums ?
Eff 1st of April.
Announcement shouldn’t be too far away now after being delayed due to the Dunkley byelection.
The AFL is a joke with respect to head high hits.
Not having a send off rule is a joke.
@Team Katich
It’s because it makes conservative reactionaries feel impotent when they see such big things like windmills being erected but not emitting anything, unlike those virile manly coal power plant chimneys.
Have to agree with you on that, fubar.
I also like shellbell’s suggestion.
FUBAR says:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 9:57 pm
I wonder if Sharaz and Higgins’ lawyers have recommended they settle – it looks like being very expensive otherwise.
Anyone who thinks the worst that is happening right now is some upper middle-class types being forced to cut down on frivolous expenses needs to get out of their bubble and actually associate with people on lower incomes once in a blue moon. The sacrifices that they are making at the moment are more along the lines of “skip meals so that you can make this week’s rent” than “choose to have an instant coffee instead of a latte from the local cafe / money-sink.” The continued existence of people with money and / or bad spending habits doesn’t change that fact.
‘The Zionist Federation of Australia warned misinformation would stoke division at home, saying troops only used deadly fire when they feared for their lives in accordance with international law.’
Source: theguardian.com
Well, that’s obviously bullshit. Were Israeli soldiers fearing for their lives when they shot the hostages they were supposed to be rescuing, who had stripped down to their underwear and were waving a white flag?
Edited to add source.
Asha says:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 10:12 pm
Correct.
And the basis of a solution to that is plentiful affordable entry level housing for first home buyers On the outskirts of cities.
shellbell: “Oz (Albrectsen) reporting Reynolds settled handsomely with ACT government over DPP’s comments about her.”
I guess that makes the ACT government a cash cow
Night, all.
Rainman says:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 10:14 pm
“Were Israeli soldiers fearing for their lives when they shot the hostages they were supposed to be rescuing, who had stripped down to their underwear and were waving a white flag?”
… because you know so much about close quarter battle in urban environments and that engagement?
AFL needs send off. 2004 grand final. Alistair Lynch who is a big bloke threw several huge punches at Darryl Wakelin. Anyone connected could have floored Wakelin.
Lynch was retiring after match so any penalty meaningless.
Its on youtube.
AFL doubled grand final penalties. Useless.
And there were earlier bad examples.
Send off would fix it 99% at least.
Spud pushing for nuclear power because…..?
Figures from a few years ago show 17 times more expensive than renewables.
Govt should get start to finish figures and publish them. Even doubling the cost of power will cripple the nation.
No one can believe the figures the L/NP put out because they have lied so often on major issues in the past.
Mr Ed
And the stupid public back them according to Newspoll.
Asha @ #962 Sunday, March 3rd, 2024 – 10:12 pm
And I was commenting from the position of having been ‘out of my bubble’, as you put it. I went to the electorate of Dobell yesterday to pick up a sound bar for my TV, which is a completely different demographic to my own electorate of Robertson and full of the hard-pressed types that most people associate with ‘doing it tough’, and that’s where I saw the biggest shopping mall on the Central Coast teeming with people spending money. I fully expected it to be a lot quieter than it actually was. So I think I have a better handle on it than you might think, Asha, as you make your observations on Australia… from Asia.
FUBAR says:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 10:18 pm
Rainman says:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 10:14 pm
“Were Israeli soldiers fearing for their lives when they shot the hostages they were supposed to be rescuing, who had stripped down to their underwear and were waving a white flag?”
… because you know so much about close quarter battle in urban environments and that engagement?
———————————————————————-
Maybe you should ask that of the Zionist Federation of Australia.
They’re the ones making the bullshit claim that Israeli ‘troops only used deadly fire when they feared for their lives in accordance with international law.’
Asha @ #963 Sunday, March 3rd, 2024 – 9:42 pm
Wrong. We live in a Utopia of Plenty. As of 23 May 2022, Australians have it wonderful and do not need anything more. It is just a decadent moral decay of people wanting everything and psy-ops from our enemies which pushes the narrative that there is any crisis. Anyway, I know for a fact there is no struggle because I spend my day at the shopping centre scanning people’s trolleys to see how extravagant their grocery purchases are and watching how many people go into JB Hifi. No joke, I saw a woman leave Centrelink one day and then cross the street to go to Maccas for lunch. She probably is one of those AUWU bums who just want to live a life of luxury on the dole and probably complained that the more than generous raise to her amount last year wasn’t enough. I bet, if you looked around her house, you’d probably find lots of high priced items like TVs and video game consoles, probably along with drug paraphernalia and alcohol containers. They’re just cosplaying poverty – they have rich parents who support them but they want to slum it up for a little while so they can impress everyone at the Greens Political Party Labor-bashing nights!
(meant sarcastically in case that’s not painfully obvious.)
The “poors” were congregating and spending (an unobservable amount of) money.
Sheesh.
Hamas thanks the US DoD for the delivery of thousands of combat rations.
Dandy Murraysays:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 9:46 pm
Cat, an example:
Insurance for my 13yo Hyundai i30 is up 21% this year. The insurance bill is now about 1/6th the value of the vehicle. That’s insane, and it’s hardly a case of wanting to have it all.
=============================================
Unfortunately the chances of golf ball plus sized hail from super storm cells is on the rise. I wonder why?. Good news for panel beaters and wind screen repairers though.
FUBARsays:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 10:57 pm
Hamas thanks the US DoD for the delivery of thousands of combat rations.
=============================================
Piss off FUBAR, people are starving to death. At least show the dregs of humanity if that’s all you have.
Anecdotes are not data.
Will people please respect the moratorium? I’m so tired of this shit being sprayed around every political place on the internet.
Yes we all know what’s going on, nobody is going to change their minds, just, please stop it here and find somewhere else to bicker in perpetuity.
Wat Tyler says:
Wrong. We live in a Utopia of Plenty. As of 23 May 2022, Australians have it wonderful and do not need anything more. It is just a decadent moral decay of people wanting everything and psy-ops from our enemies which pushes the narrative that there is any crisis
____________
Who could forget that woman from last year complaining about the rent crisis while owning a tv and decadently displaying a range of snacks in a clear case of Labor Bad.
Just to clarify, I’m well aware that the present crisis is something happening all across the world, not just in Australia, and that much of it – especially the double whammy of global inflation and skyrocketing rents and mortgages – is the result of factors that the government only has limited means to reverse, at least in the short term. And while I do certainly think there’s more that they can and should do, it does seem as though those holding the levers of power in the federal government are well aware of the problems and are putting some genuine effort into dealing with this. I guess we’ll find out for sure come budget time in a few months.
But the way that some Labor supporters (note: I said supporters, not MPs) on high enough incomes to be insulated from the crisis insist on denying that there is anything wrong – I presume because they think it reflects poorly on the team that they barrack for – just shits me to tears. It particularly shits me given that they would those yelling the loudest about a cost-of-living crisis if the Coalition were still in office right now.
Ultimately, it’s also counterproductive for the ALP too, since if such thinking begins to infect the party’s elected representatives and backroom strategists (thankfully, that doesn’t seem to be the case thus far), it could quite seriously hamper the government’s reelection efforts.
The United Nations due to its bias was excluded from the food distribution due to their own biased actions.
They played a role in the tragedy that unfolded through taking sides.Israel could not trust them.
Spence says:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 10:23 pm
AFL needs send off. 2004 grand final. Alistair Lynch who is a big bloke threw several huge punches at Darryl Wakelin. Anyone connected could have floored Wakelin.
___________
It was Shane Wakelin but yes, a terrible display of cowardice from Lynch who appeared to be trying to kill him.
Transport costs (mostly cost of a car) are rising well above inflation and are one of the biggest costs for outer suburban residents.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/03/australian-households-under-pressure-as-cost-of-car-travel-rises-at-triple-the-rate-of-inflation
This is actually a big opportunity for how Labor pitches the Vehicle Efficiency act. When Biden introduced similar regulations he called the package the Inflation Reduction Act. This highlighted that it would save households money.
Labor should do the same. Cars create emissions by burning fuel. Less emissions means less fuel burnt means less fuel cost. This is how to sell the policy, not climate change even though it will help reduce greenhouse emissions.
Night all.
Asha, I think GG had it right when he fingered you as a Liberal plant.
Pied pipersays:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 11:24 pm
The United Nations due to its bias was excluded from the food distribution due to their own biased actions.
They played a role in the tragedy that unfolded through taking sides.Israel could not trust them.
=============================================
I trust the UN well above those other wankers. The fact that you don’t only reinforces that.
Reminds me of Jon Stewart’s “food-chilling motherfuckers” joke about “poor” people who are flush enough to own a fridge (but impossible to find a vid).
“ Widespread concerns about President Biden’s age pose a deepening threat to his re-election bid, with a majority of voters who supported him in 2020 now saying he is too old to lead the country effectively, according to a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College.
The survey pointed to a fundamental shift in how voters who backed Mr. Biden four years ago have come to see him. A striking 61 percent said they thought he was “just too old” to be an effective president.
A sizable share was even more worried: Nineteen percent of those who voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, and 13 percent of those who said they would back him in November, said the 81-year-old president’s age was such a problem that he was no longer capable of handling the job.
The misgivings about Mr. Biden’s age cut across generations, gender, race and education, underscoring the president’s failure to dispel both concerns within his own party and Republican attacks painting him as senile. Seventy-three percent of all registered voters said he was too old to be effective, and 45 percent expressed a belief that he could not do the job.”
New York Times
FUBAR. Looking forward to the return of the Orange Man?
Saw this in the SMH today, is it true…?
FUBARsays:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 11:34 pm
=============================================
I have no plans to vote for him.
This poll confirms it: Immigration is all Republicans have left
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/3/2/2226945/-This-poll-confirms-it-Immigration-is-all-Republicans-have-left?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_6&pm_medium=web
“Immigration shot to the top of Gallup’s February polling on what Americans say are the country’s most vexing problems, finishing at 28%, an 8-percentage-point uptick in a single month.
Here were February’s top five issues, compared with January’s:
1. Immigration: 28% (+8 points from January)
2. Government: 20% (-1 point)
3. Economy in general: 12% (unchanged)
4. Inflation: 11% (-2 points)
5. Poverty/Hunger/Homelessness: 6% (+1 point)
The main driver of immigration’s rise to the top of voter concerns was Republicans, 57% of whom name immigration as the country’s top problem—a 20-point surge since January.
Gallup notes that survey, taken from Feb. 1 to Feb. 20, encompassed a timeframe when the bipartisan border deal was announced but ultimately failed to pass the Senate after Donald Trump urged congressional Republicans to kill it.”
Davo:
It’s true in the sense that the figures quoted in the first sentence are correct. However, I think the conclusion drawn in the second sentence is, um, flawed, to say the least.
nath says:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 11:36 pm
“FUBAR. Looking forward to the return of the Orange Man?”
No, but if the Democrats don’t do something soon about getting another candidate it is looking likely. This is looking a lot like the Voice Referendum – the arrogance of the left is going to defeat them.
Preference flows are what matter. It is a meaningless statement without that.
Flawed is being generous Asha. Deranged is another term. Is Scott freelancing for the SMH?
@davo
A bit hard to tell until the full preference distribution is done in a week or so, but that’s probably not the main story there.
With the absence of UAP and ON candidates, those that would have voted 1 UAP/ON and 2 Liberal instead voted 1 Liberal, and those that would have voted 1 UAP/ON and 2 Labor instead voted 1 Labor.
I think the most likely story is that there was a shift of about 4% from the Greens to Labor and another shift of about 4% from Labor to Liberal, and the rest of the Liberal swing comes from the 1 UAP/ON 2 Liberal voters voting 1 Liberal.
I’m hoping that Australian election graphics soon get a hold of those useful charts from the USA in Maine and Alaska where they’ve adopted ranked-choice voting where they make nice big arrows from the primary vote to where the 2CP vote ends up, those illustrate voter preferences so well.
davo says:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 11:37 pm
Saw this in the SMH today, is it true…?
One Nation and the UAP received 7.87% of the primary vote in Dunkley at the 2022 election however the Liberal Party only managed a swing of 3.6% in the absence of these parties at the by-election.
In effect the Liberals had a 4.27% swing against them yesterday while Labor increased its primary vote.
*******************
Much as I’d like it to be, no it’s not.
William’s dashboard currently shows a 6.6% Liberal primary vote increase, 0.4% primary increase for the ALP and a 3.7% 2pp swing to the Libs
All, after yesterdays very professional posting on the Dunkley election and all the other great posts from Mr Bowe, my monthly subs were taken today. After reflection on the quality of this site and the owners continue excellence in supplying it I found it quite disturbing that he should come here and regularly ask for donations from readers and regular posters that obviously enjoy the site and what Mr Bowe offers.
While I am not wealthy and understanding that living costs have gone up and will probably continue to they have also gone up for Mr Bowe and the services that he offers all here. I have increased my monthly submission by a small amount from next month and would like to urge others here to look at what Mr Bowe gives in this site and to see if they can also increase their donations a little, if only a couple of dollars, I hope that a little extra in thanks to what this site gives us all will reduce the need for Mr Bowe from embarrassing himself by needing to continue to ask for donations to continue to deliver what for some is hours, days, months and years of companionship, friendship, debate and entertainment.
Mr Bowe, I apologise if I have stepped in where I shouldn’t have but I want you to be able to continue this excellent site without the need to continue to tout for the funds to do so.
Cheers, T
”
Socratessays:
Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 11:29 pm
Transport costs (mostly cost of a car) are rising well above inflation and are one of the biggest costs for outer suburban residents.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/03/australian-households-under-pressure-as-cost-of-car-travel-rises-at-triple-the-rate-of-inflation
This is actually a big opportunity for how Labor pitches the Vehicle Efficiency act. When Biden introduced similar regulations he called the package the Inflation Reduction Act. This highlighted that it would save households money.
Labor should do the same. Cars create emissions by burning fuel. Less emissions means less fuel burnt means less fuel cost. This is how to sell the policy, not climate change even though it will help reduce greenhouse emissions.
”
Couple of things
One of the main reasons for Cost of living crisis is because of Russia and China.
First of all, Russia( Putin) is pissed off because of Ukraine war and sanctions imposed by West due to his callous actions. Second of all, China (Xi) is pissed off because Covid investigations, US hawkish China foreign policy. Add to that supply chain issues.
Second of all, Before COVID, Russia was the main supplier of fossil fuels to Europe keeping their transport and other areas where fossil fuels are used cheaper. After Ukraine war started and accompanying sanctions, fossilfuels became expensive because European countries are buying fossil fuels from new sources like US and Saudi Arabia, which percolated to various other goods.
Third of all, Before COVID, China was “factory of the world”. A lot of finished goods were transported from China. There was either severe disruption either due to COVID or more hawkish US attitude towards China, justified or not.
Finished goods became expensive. Added to that, the double whammy of increase in fossil fuel prices and lag in development of Renewables.
Due to current middle east crisis due to unmentionable war, Arabs are even more pissed resulting in Houthis merchant ships attacks thus increasing the price of farm produce, goods and raw materials further.
Biden Presidency and Trump obscene challenge is adding fuel to the crises.
Governments across the globe are unable to do much to the current situation.
But the most important issue is Climate change. Due to climate change, there is increase in frequency and severity of natural disasters causing immense damage to the people and economy in general. The inadequate ( some say woeful) response to unfolding climate crisis is driving up costs, like insurance, even further.
Since, people are living longer and want to live longer, the expenses of medical services and products are on the increase.