Reports continue to suggest both parties expect a tight result in the Dunkley by-election, which this site will be over like a rash during counting tomorrow evening, being likely the only place that will publish results at booth level as they are reported. The Australian reports Liberal internal polling pointing to a swing of about 5%, just short of the 6.3% needed to win. Labor is reportedly concerned that its chances will be harmed by low turnout: as of Wednesday, 15.15% of enrolled voters had cast early votes, which compares with 17.93% and 17.08% at the same stage before last year’s by-elections in Aston and Fadden.
Other electoral news of the last week:
• A weekend Liberal preselection vote for the Perth seat of Curtin, which the party lost to teal independent Kate Chaney, resulted in a 192-64 vote win for Tom White, former Uber chief executive in South Korea and staffer to state MP Peter Collier, ahead of Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter now employed in government relations at naval shipbuilder Luerssen Australia.
• Michelle Grattan of The Conservation quotes a Labor sources saying it is “highly unlikely” the party will contest the by-election for Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook, the date for which remains to be confirmed. Reports increasingly indicate Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce, initially presumed the front-runner, faces stiff competition from Simon Kennedy, McKinsey partner and unsuccessful Bennelong candidate. Pesce has mostly moderate backing, including from state party leader Mark Speakman, while Simon Kennedy has mostly conservative supporters including Tony Abbott and Dominic Perrottet, although an exception appears to be moderate Senator Dave Sharma. Rounding out the field of four are Gwen Cherne, veteran family advocate commissioner, and the little-fancied Benjamin Britton, an army veteran and former United Australia Party candidate. The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports ANZ banker Alex Cooke, whose campaign slogan would have written itself, has withdrawn.
• A suggestion that Liberal moderates including powerbroker Michael Photios hope to persuade independent Wentworth MP Allegra Spender to join their party and faction in the “medium term”, potentially with an offer of a front bench position, has received short shrift from the proposed target. The Financial Review reports those concerned are “unconvinced it will be possible to wrest the once safe Sydney seat away from her”, and believe her 4% margin “has grown since she entered parliament”.
From Abbreviated Pundit round up in DailyKos.
Itamar Eichner of Ynet News who was the first to report that Minister without portfolio and Knesset opposition leader Benny Gantz will be traveling the United States today for high-level talks about the situation in Gaza; apparently without the initial approval of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“This visit comes at a time when efforts to secure a hostage exchange deal have been ongoing for quite some time, and amidst reports in the U.S. that the American government is losing patience with Netanyahu’s conduct in the war – and allegations that he is being restrained by his government partners Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
The Prime Minister’s Office expressed anger at the publication of Ynet and clarified that Gantz is flying without the Prime Minister’s approval, contrary to the government regulations, which “require every minister to coordinate his trip in advance with the Prime Minister, including approval of the travel plan.”
According to Netanyahu’s associates, “the Prime Minister clarified to Minister Gantz that the State of Israel has only one Prime Minister.” From Washington, Gantz is expected to continue to London.
Earlier this week, President Joe Biden emphasized that Israel must pursue peace with the Palestinians for its long-term survival. He cautioned that the country’s “incredibly conservative government” risked losing international support, during an appearance on “Late Night with Seth Meyers.”
“
andrewmck at 11.57 pm
Antony Green’s elections site has the primary swing to Labor at 0.9%.
Turnout in 2022 in Dunkley was 90%, whereas for the by-election it will be about 80%.
Some of the Palmer/Hanson votes from 2022 went to Bergwerf, the local conspiracy nutter, who increased his vote by nearly 1% despite dropping down from no. 1 on the ballot paper.
Labor is satisfied with the result. It should be a bit concerned about the poor preference flow.
There was almost 20% of the vote in minor party/candidate prefs, down from 27% in 2022.
Looking at the details, Animal Justice (69% pref flow to Labor in 2022) and the Libertarians (77% flow to Libs) should have cancelled each other out, as the AJP vote was a bit higher.
Then you have three groups: 8.1% combined for the Greens and Victorian Socialists, 4.8% for Bergwerf and 1.4% for the nostalgists (Aust Dems).
Labor would usually get about 6.5% out of that 8.1%, giving it an advantage from those left wing prefs of almost 5% (6.5 – 1.6 = 4.9).
Yet, above the primary vote lead of 2%, Labor has gained only another 3.4% from prefs, so, out of the Bergwerf and Aust Dem prefs, it probably went backwards by about 1.5%.
So Labor went backwards on nutter Bergwerf’s voters’ prefs significantly, when they were just over 50% for Labor in 2022. Aust Dem voters prefs would probably have favoured Labor by about 2 to 1, despite the split ticket.
Conspiracy voter prefs are more likely to trend away from the government, whatever it is.
While Bergwerf is a serial candidate peculiar to Dunkley, his type of voters are not. They would be the low info, high prejudice and super high ignorance voters who fell for Palmer.
Even if Palmer does not intervene in 2022, because Labor fixes the playing field somewhat, or because Palmer has debt problems or can’t see any benefit because Labor should win, the erstwhile Palmer voters will still be around, as obstinate and ignorant as before, or more so.
In an election where some seats will be close, with a higher turnout than in this by-election meaning there will be somewhat more of such voters than have just voted, they could still have some marginal significance, even if Palmer’s con-job on the public is not repeated.
From DailyKos Abbreviated Pundit roundup
“Trevor Hunnicutt of Reuters reports that among the officials that Minister Gantz will meet with are Vice President Kamala Harris, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, and members from both parties of Congress.
The talks, first reported by Reuters, are expected to span topics including reducing Palestinian civilian casualties, securing a temporary ceasefire, the release of hostages held in Gaza and increasing aid to the territory, a White House official said.
“The Vice President will express her concern over the safety of the as many as 1.5 million people in Rafah,” the official said, adding that Israel also had a “right to defend itself in the face of continued Hamas terrorist threats.”
A statement from Gantz confirmed that he would meet with Harris, as well as with U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Republican and Democratic members of U.S. Congress.
“Minister Gantz personally updated the prime minister on his own initiative on Friday of his intention to travel, in order to coordinate the messages to be transmitted in the meetings,” the statement said.”
HaC
+1 from me
davo says:
‘Saw this in the SMH today, is it true…?’
“One Nation and the UAP received 7.87% of the primary vote in Dunkley at the 2022 election however the Liberal Party only managed a swing of 3.6% in the absence of these parties at the by-election.”
=======
No, it’s utter bollocks.
It’s comparing primary vote shares (in 2022) with a 2PP swing (in 2024). Two completely different concepts. Kindergarten-level pseudo-psephology.
When you say ‘in the SMH’, davo, do you mean in an article, or in a reader’s comment? If the latter, well hey, there’s a lot of ignorance out there. If the former, affirmation of the sorry state of political ‘journalism’ in our mainstream media.
‘The CEO and director of the Bureau of Meteorology, Andrew Johnson, revealed to staff the cost of its delayed IT overhaul – one of Australia’s most expensive ever – despite repeatedly telling senators such details must be kept under wraps for cabinet secrecy reasons.’
Awkward.
‘Johnson declined senators’ requests in October to disclose the cost of the bureau’s computer upgrade, labelled Robust.’
Ah, so the billion-dollar bill will be ‘Robust-debt’?
(I’ll get me coat …)
‘Morrison might not have held a hose, but Dutton doesn’t hold a policy’
Ouch!
(Peter Hartcher, paywalled)
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-might-not-have-held-a-hose-but-dutton-doesn-t-hold-a-policy-20240303-p5f9em.html
‘Planning for possible King Charles visit to Australia begins’
‘… a visit to Australia by the King, who would be joined by Queen Camilla, [is] on the cards for October …’
Health permitting, of course.
70 years after his mum’s first visit. I did but see her passing by.
According to family legend, the one-year-old me had been primed to say ‘Hooray for the Queen!’ and wave a flag.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/planning-for-possible-king-charles-visit-to-australia-begins-20240303-p5f9et.html
Dogs Brunch,
You asked if there was something about the Irish that predisposed them to be fascists, and it is a very good question.
I think the answer is depends in the timing, as in yes, some decades really did have that effect.
OC provided some interesting information when talking to LVT, and answering Nadia88, including about the Blue Shirts (which I believe morphed into Fine Gael). Fianna Fáil is also a centre right party, but real centre right, not like our current Federal mob here in Australia.
I often look at the difference in my two Irish families, that of my mother, and that of my father. My mother’s family bounced around between East Cork, Boston, and Melbourne from around 1900 until WWII. Because of English succession laws applying to Catholics, the family farm had to be sold and all children inherited equally. They maintained close ties with Ireland, and were very Catholic. Religion was all-encompassing, and free-thought was not encouraged. The English and the Protestants were the big enemies, with the communists being added during the Spanish Civil war. I think her family were Franco supporters, but I know she definitely had time for Mussolini.
My mother would talk a lot about B.A. Santamaria.
My father then would say “What! Bloody old Bob Santamaria!”
So, my father’s family also emigrated to Australia and the US, but in the 1840s. In fact one came to Australia on an “assisted passage” in the 1820s or 30s. On one side at least the emigration came about because, again, the family farm had to be sold and the money split between all siblings. While my father’s family were Catholic, it was religion, not an ideaology. the values of the family were all about education, and what I would call the social gospel.
I have concluded that the time they left Ireland was the important difference. Ireland had changed, and the the revolutionary movement of the early 20th century was exclusively hard-line Catholic, and so during the 20th century up until around 1980, this influenced the Irish population.
Regarding more modern times, I landed at Cork airport in 2019, and while waiting for the bus to Galway city, I browsed through the tiny collection of books at the newsagents.
There was one, and I wish I had bought it, because I have never found it again, that discussed how Ireland had changed, with the changes being book-ended by two papal visits: JPII in 1979, and Pope Benedict in 2016. In 1979 Ireland was poor, the church had way too much say in peoples lives, including difficulty in accessing contraception, and it was bleeding people to immigration. By 2016, Ireland has shrugged off the church, legalised (or was close to doing so) both gay marriage and abortion, both allowed by referenda.
I wonder about the people you met who have been in Australia for 20 years? They would have left in the midst of this change, and may have older attitudes. I worry it is also because Ireland has non-anglo immigrants now, and the people we see in Sydney are here for a good time, working as traffic controllers (woman) and labourers (men). It is a demographic that is probably very right wing in Ireland, and maybe they travel here because Australia is a “White” country?
The Irish people I have met through work could not be more different.
They must feel like I did on going to Honolulu, Waikiki Beach, for a conference in 2016. Everyone second person was Australian, of the “cashed-up” bogan variety. It was scarily like the Gold Coast. Definitely not a representative sample of Australia, or at least I hope.
I could write a whole essay in this, so I will stop now.
Douglas and Milko @ #1004 Monday, March 4th, 2024 – 3:21 am
+2
How do you do it? I’m not tech savvy enough to know how to make the change!
New thread.
Rainman @ #972 Sunday, March 3rd, 2024 – 10:31 pm
BeauSyphilis actually thinks that confronting three men in their undies waving white flags is an “engagement”. That’s what they taught him as a young feller, when he went to ‘killing strangers’ school, to fulfil his life’s ambition.