Reports continue to suggest both parties expect a tight result in the Dunkley by-election, which this site will be over like a rash during counting tomorrow evening, being likely the only place that will publish results at booth level as they are reported. The Australian reports Liberal internal polling pointing to a swing of about 5%, just short of the 6.3% needed to win. Labor is reportedly concerned that its chances will be harmed by low turnout: as of Wednesday, 15.15% of enrolled voters had cast early votes, which compares with 17.93% and 17.08% at the same stage before last year’s by-elections in Aston and Fadden.
Other electoral news of the last week:
• A weekend Liberal preselection vote for the Perth seat of Curtin, which the party lost to teal independent Kate Chaney, resulted in a 192-64 vote win for Tom White, former Uber chief executive in South Korea and staffer to state MP Peter Collier, ahead of Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter now employed in government relations at naval shipbuilder Luerssen Australia.
• Michelle Grattan of The Conservation quotes a Labor sources saying it is “highly unlikely” the party will contest the by-election for Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook, the date for which remains to be confirmed. Reports increasingly indicate Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce, initially presumed the front-runner, faces stiff competition from Simon Kennedy, McKinsey partner and unsuccessful Bennelong candidate. Pesce has mostly moderate backing, including from state party leader Mark Speakman, while Simon Kennedy has mostly conservative supporters including Tony Abbott and Dominic Perrottet, although an exception appears to be moderate Senator Dave Sharma. Rounding out the field of four are Gwen Cherne, veteran family advocate commissioner, and the little-fancied Benjamin Britton, an army veteran and former United Australia Party candidate. The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports ANZ banker Alex Cooke, whose campaign slogan would have written itself, has withdrawn.
• A suggestion that Liberal moderates including powerbroker Michael Photios hope to persuade independent Wentworth MP Allegra Spender to join their party and faction in the “medium term”, potentially with an offer of a front bench position, has received short shrift from the proposed target. The Financial Review reports those concerned are “unconvinced it will be possible to wrest the once safe Sydney seat away from her”, and believe her 4% margin “has grown since she entered parliament”.
From previous thread:
nadia88: “Oliver has said 58-42 ALP (Final tally)”
No, that weren’t me! Someone else. (Tell ‘em they’re dreamin’!)
I’m a long way from Dunkley, with no local insights to inform speculation on the by-election outcomes. And anyway, by-elections are notoriously volatile and unpredictable.
If I were to presume to venture an armchair guesstimate, maybe a narrow Labor retain. Something like your estimate of 51.5, nadia.
As for the primaries: as I noted in a past post, this time around UAP and PHON are not running, but Vic Socialists are. So, fewer options for voters’ first preference on the right flank, but an alternative to Labor on the left flank.
All other things being equal, Labor could bleed a few percent to the Socialists, while many of the 8% who voted UAP or PHON last time might revert to the Liberals.
So there’s a prospect of a gain of a few percent in the Liberals’ primary vote, and a drop of a few percent in Labor’s vote, *for no other reason than the choice if alternative candidates* this time, compared to last time.
That fact won’t, of course, deter the Liberals and their media megaphones from claiming a vote of confidence from any primaries swing.
BTW, love your work, nadia. Please persist with the psephology.
“… Tom White, former Uber chief executive in South Korea and staffer to state MP Peter Collier …”
From corporate CEO to political office boy?
Or was it the other way around? A spectacular fall, or a meteoric rise?
“Reports increasingly indicate Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce, initially presumed the front-runner, faces stiff competition from Simon Kennedy, McKinsey partner and unsuccessful Bennelong candidate.”
A popular local figure being supplanted by a blow-in from outside the Shire?
As if that would ever happen in Cook! 😉
Secretive firm behind voice no campaign billed taxpayers almost $135,000 via Coalition MPs, documents show
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/01/whitestone-strategic-voice-referendum-no-campaign-liberal-coalition-party-funding
Indeed, Pueo:
“The strategy firm has invoiced at least $134,750 from elected representatives over two years, including Coalition senators Price, Claire Chandler and Alex Antic, former senator Amanda Stoker and shadow defence minister Andrew Hastie.”
Parakelia 2.0, for those who remember the Liberals’ previous pea-and-thimble trick to slip taxpayer dollars into campaign coffers.
I think the reason the liberal prelection process seems so foreign and otherwise inexplicable to those on the other side is because the LNP actually preselect candidates on bogus concepts such as business experience and merit…
If the LNP selected on the alternative set of criteria (which they at least partly did in the Aston by-election) the next election may as well be a lost cause for the LNP.
Green & Gold:
“… the LNP actually preselect candidates on bogus concepts such as business experience and merit …”
Scott Morrison stood for preselection in Cook on the back of controversial and curtailed managerial roles in both Australia and New Zealand. Tandem Trans-Tasman Tourism Terminations.
He scored 8 votes. Michael Towke scored 84 votes.
And yet …
Yet another round of Liberal preselections and still the men are dominating. The Liberals have a safe seat in Cook, exactly the seat they should be preselecting a woman for, but no. It’s shaping up as men all the way.
Women problem? What women problem?
Alcoholic A (Labor) ridicules Alcoholic B (Liberal). Meanwhile sensible people cross the street to avoid both.
I don’t think that bloke Towke would have won the 2019 election, which might I remind you was the ALP’s to win on all accounts…
“Scott Morrison stood for preselection in Cook on the back of controversial and curtailed managerial roles in both Australia and New Zealand. Tandem Trans-Tasman Tourism Terminations.”
Yes, “Controversial” because spicy language in advertising is never a good thing…
Grow up Oliver, and before revert to trite comments such as “He scored 8 votes. Michael Towke scored 84 votes” you might want to dig a little deeper. Towke was accused of branch staking (the same activity Dictator Dan involved himself in just FYI) and embellishing his resume. The allegations where later proven false (after the second preselection which Morison won) and Towke was paid out.
Truth often isn’t congruent with a socialist world view I’m afraid
Green & Gold @ #10 Friday, March 1st, 2024 – 7:05 am
OK. Which SfM are you?
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
The Victorian and NSW governments are driving a state borrowing binge, double the size of the federal government’s borrowings, that one of the world’s key ratings agencies warns is adding to inflationary pressures across the economy, says Shane Wright.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/states-debt-to-hit-600-billion-putting-pressure-on-inflation-20240229-p5f8rp.html
Help to Buy will reach just 10,000 home buyers each year. Labor, meanwhile, is losing ground to the Coalition on housing, writes David Crowe who does say that the Coalition has a blank page policy on it.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-s-housing-fix-helps-a-tiny-pool-of-voters-the-rest-will-notice-20240229-p5f8q5.html
Phil Coorey wonders if Albo’s Voice gamble could turn out like ScoMo’s Hawaii trip.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/will-albo-s-voice-gamble-turn-out-like-scomo-s-hawaii-trip-20240228-p5f8l0
The voters of Dunkley have government and opposition in a guessing game, writes Michelle Grattan.
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-the-voters-of-dunkley-have-government-and-opposition-in-a-guessing-game-224732
With a final, characteristically cringe-worthy valedictory speech in Parliament, Morrison left behind a trail of destruction and a political career devoid of anything even slightly resembling leadership. And he left as he came, rambling inanely (this time, about Taylor Swift), reminding us how much he loves his wife and daughters, refusing to take responsibility for his actions, and preaching fire and damnation and an apocryphal afterlife, while oblivious to the fire and chaos his tenure either wreaked upon this nation or blissfully ignored on his watch, writes Michelle Pini.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-cook-from-cook-the-thief-his-wife-and-the-party-leftovers,18375
The secretive firm behind the no campaign in the voice referendum has claimed almost $135,000 in taxpayer funding, including almost $70,000 from the Coalition senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, as part of its work to help conservative politicians sharpen their messaging to voters. The Guardian reveals that Whitestone Strategic, a political consultancy group that claims to provide “up-to-the-minute technology and campaign clout in the fight for Australian values”, was contracted to the official campaign opposing the Indigenous voice to parliament in 2023.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/01/whitestone-strategic-voice-referendum-no-campaign-liberal-coalition-party-funding
Annika Smethurst opines why a byelection win for Labor in Dunkley could prove to be Albanese’s poisoned chalice. She says neither party wants to be left hosting an election night wake, but there remains a risk that a winner will be lulled into a false – and risky – sense of security one year out from the election.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/why-a-byelection-win-for-labor-could-prove-to-be-albanese-s-poisoned-chalice-20240229-p5f8oe.html
The productivity of our labour has never fallen by anything like as much as 3.7 per cent, which likely means something funny going on with the figures, writes Ross Gittins.He says, “There are few aspects of the economy on which more bulldust is spoken than our productivity. The world abounds with people trying to tell us that our productivity performance is a real worry and the way to fix it is to cut their taxes or give them a government handout. Yeah, sure.”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/good-news-our-falling-productivity-is-too-bad-to-be-true-20240229-p5f8xc.html
Australia and the Philippines will deepen maritime co-operation, including security for civilian shipping and surveillance, as President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr warns his country is on the front line of Chinese efforts that threaten regional peace. Andrew Tillett reports that in a forthright address to federal parliament, Mr Marcos repeated his vow the Philippines would not surrender a square inch of territory to a foreign power, amid intensifying clashes between Chinese and Filipino maritime forces.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/we-won-t-yield-marcos-seeks-australian-backing-to-stand-up-to-china-20240229-p5f8oy
It’s the former PM Paul Keating who understands that the world has changed and we can no longer take American power for granted to keep Asia stable and Australia safe, argues Hugh White in the AFR.
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/foreign-policy-establishment-couldn-t-be-more-wrong-about-dissident-keating-20240226-p5f7r0
Graham Readfearn tells us what happens when an uncosted Coalition thought bubble on nuclear power is presented as a concrete proposal. Anyone reading the Australian’s Newspoll survey might think there was an actual proposal in place to build small modular nuclear reactors around Australia – except there isn’t, he says.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/29/the-australian-newspoll-survey-small-modular-nuclear-reactors-smr-energy-grid-plan
The SMH editorial says that pointing the finger at an ex-MP traitor shows a bigger security threat, the danger that the more serious issues at play here get overshadowed by gossip and innuendo.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pointing-finger-at-ex-mp-traitor-shows-bigger-security-threat-20240229-p5f8pb.html`
The Conversation explains what sabotage is, and why is the ASIO chief worried about it.
https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-sabotage-and-why-is-the-asio-chief-worried-about-it-224731
“Leaving aside the issue of whether ASIO’s announcement that there is a ‘traitor in our midst’ is simply a ploy to get more funds in this year’s Federal Budget (something you can never rule out) why hasn’t ASIO and other security and law enforcement agencies in this country pursued the two greatest practitioners of so-called foreign influence – the United States followed by Israel?”. Asks Greg Barns.
https://johnmenadue.com/traitors-in-our-midst-australias-foreign-interference-laws-are-a-political-ruse/
Meanwhile, a former Liberal candidate, Di Sanh Duong, has become the first person found guilty under Australian foreign interference laws after he tried to put in place a plan to influence then-minister Alan Tudge.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/former-liberal-candidate-jailed-over-chinese-interference-plan-20240229-p5f8o0.html
Margot Saville tells us why Allegra Spender will never join the Liberal Party.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-allegra-spender-will-never-join-the-liberal-party-20240228-p5f8jh.html
With the scalp of poor Mr Mike Pezzullo dangling from his belt, The Age/Sydney Morning Herald journalist Michael Bachelard continues to take a terrier-like interest in the Department of Home Affairs, writes Paddy Gourley.
https://johnmenadue.com/the-home-affairs-security-guru/
Victoria Police has dropped sexual assault charges against a former immigration detainee and convicted sex offender who was released into the community in last year’s High Court ruling. In a colossal bungle, police arrested former detainee Alfons Pirimapun and wrongfully charged him in Melbourne Magistrates’ Court with stalking and sexual assault in Richmond earlier this week.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/police-drop-sexual-assault-charges-against-former-immigration-detainee-20240229-p5f8xh.html
Last week saw the release of the NSW State Disaster Mitigation Plan which outlines a blueprint for managing future disasters; this week marks the second anniversary of the great flood at Lismore and places downstream in the Richmond River valley. This is a moment to ask how we are going in NSW as far as the future management of floods is concerned, says Chas Keys.
https://johnmenadue.com/revisiting-the-use-of-floodplains/
“Where does ScoMo rank in the pantheon of former PMs?”, ponders James Massola.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/where-does-scomo-rank-in-the-pantheon-of-former-pms-20240228-p5f8hf.html
The rebuild of the Western Australian Liberal Party has suffered a setback after one of its star recruits in waiting was unable to find a way through the preselection process. Hayley Cormann, a high-profile barrister and the wife of former federal finance minister Mathias Cormann, finished last in Wednesday night’s three-person race to secure the Liberal nomination for the once safe seat of South Perth.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/hayley-cormann-defeat-dents-liberal-rebuild-in-west/news-story/1fe81ebb3bf47005991ad8f0b4a9f8ae?amp=
Robyn Grace reports that public schools in Victoria got $570 per student last year – their private rivals raked in $15,000.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/public-schools-got-570-per-student-last-year-their-private-rivals-raked-in-15-000-20240229-p5f8up.html
Matt O’Sullivan tells us about the big problems with NSW’s fleet of new long-distance trains.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/uncomfortable-over-budget-running-late-big-problems-for-state-s-new-trains-20240220-p5f6dh.html’
Renewable technologies will get cheaper, price spikes from retiring coal plants will be avoided and exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets will be reduced, argue Toby Phillips and Guy Debelle who lay out three reasons the green energy transition will be non-inflationary.
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/three-reasons-the-green-energy-transition-will-be-non-inflationary-20240226-p5f7qt
Australian-led international research has found consistent evidence of an association between ultra-processed foods and an increased risk of 32 damaging health conditions. The researchers conducted the most comprehensive review so far of the evidence of a link between these foods and health. It was up-to-date and involved 10 million participants. Jill Margo takes us through the report which was published in the British Medical Journal.
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/landmark-research-links-processed-food-with-32-ways-to-die-20240229-p5f8u0
The competition watchdog will have to pay legal costs of the CFMEU and builder Hutchinson, after a Federal Court ruling overturned a combined penalty worth $1.3m and a finding they had breached competition law. Yesterday the construction union and subcontractor won on appeal and will no longer have to pay penalties of $750,000 and $600,000 each. Previously they had been found to have entered into an agreement to boycott Waterproofing Industries Queensland at a Brisbane building site in 2016.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/legal-affairs/federal-court-says-construction-union-did-not-boycott-and-accc-must-pay-costs/news-story/cd8297450203b8d711d4430ef7d10ff2?amp=
The Australian is complaining that the ABC is planning a “hit job” on one of Australia’s most prestigious schools, Cranbrook. The broadcaster’s flagship current affairs program, Four Corners, is set to air its investigation into the $41,800-a-year school in Sydney’s eastern suburbs on Monday night.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/concerns-over-abc-hit-job-on-the-prestigious-cranbrook-school/news-story/2698456ebbb968cd809ec315b510b7ba
Jenna Price hates moneyed-up Millennials as much as they hate Boomers like her.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-hate-moneyed-up-millennials-as-much-as-they-hate-boomers-like-me-20240226-p5f801.html
The current asbestos crisis in Sydney is likely to worsen without proper management, writes Mark Allen.
https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/sydney-asbestos-crisis-the-tip-of-the-iceberg,18376
According to Alexandra Smith, the state’s powerful union movement has launched a new assault against poker machines, insisting the NSW Labor government dramatically cut the number of pokies by at least 25,000 over the next five years.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/unions-say-minns-government-must-slash-pokie-numbers-in-clubs-pubs-20240229-p5f8q1.html
Welcome to topsy-turvy Britain, where it’s opponents of Israel’s war who are the extremist ‘mob’, writes Owen Jones. He says a new consensus has emerged in British politics: peaceful protesters are dangerous, hateful extremists, but apologists for the mass slaughter of tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians are mainstream, respectable moderates.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/29/britain-israel-war-palestinians-gaza
The US may get a one-week shutdown reprieve, but chaos in Congress continues, writes Stephen Bartholomeusz who says the dysfunction is unlikely to end as long as Trump and the conservatives and the MAGA cult in the House have a disproportionate voice in its affairs.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-us-may-get-a-one-week-shutdown-reprieve-but-chaos-in-congress-continues-20240229-p5f8o6.html
Martin Pengelly writes that Stephen Moore, a conservative economist whose controversial remarks about women cost him a seat on the Federal Reserve board in 2019, is now co-author of a plan to radically reform the US treasury as part of Project 2025, a vast right wing effort to advance radical policy proposals for Donald Trump’s possible White House return.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/29/trump-economist-stephen-moore-us-treasury-project-2025
Donald Trump has lost his initial bid for a New York appeals court to pause the more than $US450 million ($690 million) judgment he faces in a civil fraud case, exposing him to potential financial peril.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-says-he-may-have-to-sell-properties-as-judge-knocks-back-request-to-delay-690m-penalty-20240229-p5f8rn.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
David Pope
Matt Golding
Cathy Wilcox
Fiona Katauskas
Marija Ercegovac
John Shakespeare with a gif
https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.667%2C$multiply_1.9577%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/5b93172ebe6246f49b4bc329c6dacef929b68304
Jim Pavlidis
Matt Davidson
Andrew Dyson
Leak
From the US
Green & Gold: “Yes, “Controversial” because spicy language in advertising is never a good thing…”
Ah, I see: rewriting history by pretending that ScoMo was sacked from Tourism Australia because of the cringeworthy ‘Where the bloody hell are you?’ campaign.
That’s demonstrably untrue. Which you must know. Or are you really that ignorant?
Polish PM Donald Tusk shows he gets Ukraine’s distress at Polish blockades of its grain:
“Poland will consider banning food imports from Russia after it “analyzes” the results of Latvia’s decision to do so, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 29, citing Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk…
… Tusk said that Poland is open to imposing similar regulations, and that he will discuss the issue at a meeting with protesting farmers later on Feb. 29.”
https://kyivindependent.com/poland-to-consider-banning-russian-food-following-latvias-decision/
For the edification of Green & Gold, and others who haven’t been paying attention:
Scott Morrison left New Zealand under a long white cloud:
‘Seven years before he was sacked as managing director of Tourism Australia – amid serious concerns about his management practices – Scott Morrison was the subject of criticism in a New Zealand audit report examining his activities as head of NZ’s Office of Tourism and Sport.’
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2018/11/17/morrison-hijacked-nz-tourism-review/15423732007158
And also for the edification of Green & Gold:
‘Something of a bureaucratic black belt from his days in New Zealand, Morrison also fought running battles with Tourism Australia’s nine-strong board. Its members complained that he did not heed advice, withheld important research data about the controversial campaign, was aggressive and intimidating, and ran the government agency as if it were a one-man show.
‘But Morrison thought he had the upper hand. Confident that John Howard would ultimately back him, Morrison reportedly boasted that if Fran Bailey got in his way, he would bring her down. When board members called for him to go, however, Bailey agreed, and soon it was Morrison who was on his way.
‘“Fran despised him,” says an industry insider. “*Her one big win was ousting Scott. His ego went too far.*”
‘Another senior industry figure claims that it was Morrison’s arrogance, combined with his misreading of John Howard and the power dynamics of Canberra, that proved his undoing: “He was naive to think he could take on the politicians. Howard was always going to back his ministers.”
‘The “agreed separation” was said to have pocketed him at least a $300,000 payout.’
https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2012/february/1328593883/nick-bryant/so-who-bloody-hell-are-you
Jeez, if only the Liberals knew that their candidate was ‘aggressive’, ‘intimidating’, and ‘a one-man show’. 😉
Thanks BK!
#weatheronPB
A pure blue backdrop,
peers in through a high window,
and draws me outside.
Much appreciated BK!
Green & Gold:
‘Grow up Oliver, and before revert [sic] to trite comments such as “He scored 8 votes. Michael Towke scored 84 votes” …’
‘Trite’? That’s a typo, surely? You meant ‘truth’, right? It’s a simple matter of fact that Towke demolished Morrison in the preselection vote by a factor of more than ten to one.
‘Truth often isn’t congruent with a socialist world view I’m afraid’
The cognitive dissonance is strong in this one.
We could do with a bit of rain in my part of the world .
It’s very dry
Another example of just how out of touch and arrogant Gladys B was when they were Transport Minister and later Premier.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/uncomfortable-over-budget-running-late-big-problems-for-state-s-new-trains-20240220-p5f6dh.html
Apparently Transport for NSW officials were quite keen to evaluate one of V/Line’s then new V*Locity diesel railcars with the view that they could be scoped up to replace the XPT fleet. V/Line were very happy to help as was Bombardier (formerly known as Com-Eng) but Gladys B firmly rejected their recommendations and when overseas to CAF.
Hubris has resulted in a substandard project outcome that has not even turned a wheel in revenue service.
CAF also supplied some of the trams in Sydney which were later found to be completely useless and needed major rectification.
Victoria:
Is your daughter going to the vigil tonight for Jesse?
Wonder if the rogue former traiterous MP will be outed at some stage
What’s this thing “dry”? A totally alien concept in Sydney.
Victoriasays:
Friday, March 1, 2024 at 8:19 am
Wonder if the rogue former traiterous MP will be outed at some stage
____________________________________
We must out them.
I agree with ASIO to keep it quiet. It was a long time ago.
thanks Oliver – I’ll track down who said 58-42, but noted, not you.
Lars – with nearly 20% of voters doing postals, yes I reckon the local voters there are avoiding the booths.
Fess
She is not going up to Sydney
We have had another sad situation.
Her bestie (and who was part of the friendship group with Jesse) is cousins with my son’s bestie and we are all family friends
On Wednesday they had a stillborn daughter.
Mind you we saw bestie and wife on sunday at my granddaughter’s first birthday.
We were joking that they were overdue and baby probably wants to stay in womb etc.
We are heartbroken.
My son in particular is an absolute mess.
He is usually quite stoic
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. It is pretty obvious there is a close election tomorrow with the Liberal Party leaving no principle unbroken.
Last night it was Sussan Ley’s blatantly racist tweet, blowing her dog whistle loud and proud.
Not to be out-shamed, Senator Malcolm Roberts appealed to the mad uncle demographic, his core constituency, with an anti-Vax conspiracy rant.
“ “We will expose your global agenda.”
Australian senator, Malcolm Roberts: The so-called “pandemic” was planned and globally co-ordinated, decades in advance.
“But we are going to hound you down, the people that are guilty. We are going to hound you down and hold you accountable.”
https://twitter.com/TheLastLogger/status/1748702789503484245
Oh no, Victoria. That’s terrible news!
Best wishes to you and your son Victoria. So unlucky.
Yes it was Scott yesterday morning who posted 58-42.
Victoria, very sad to hear. Best wishes to you & your family
Lithuanian Foreign Minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis (apologies for the length):
“We declare red lines for ourselves, but not for Russia. We publicly tie our own hands while leaving Putin free to pillage, rape and destroy. We create strategic transparency, not strategic ambiguity. It’s time to change course.
Putin is prepared to cross borders, subvert democratic governments, ignore treaties and rewrite the past in an attempt to legitimise the invasion and annexation of his so-called “lands of historic Russian interest”.
Putin threatens NATO with nuclear missiles, trains his armed forces for invasions, puts his economy into war mode, uses chemical weapons and orders assassinations on NATO soil. He has weaponised migrants, engaged in cyber attacks and launched disinformation campaigns.
And what about our response? We have taken every opportunity to declare what we are NOT going to do. We have imposed red lines on ourselves and announced them openly, while our adversary operates without any.
We are an open book to Putin, he expects that tomorrow will bring neither Taurus nor ATACMS nor even sufficient amounts of ammunition. He wakes up every day knowing there will be no strategic dilemmas that would shift his calculations, either on the battlefield or beyond.
If anyone thinks Putin has regard for our gestures of restraint and alters his behaviour accordingly, they are choosing to live in an illusion. He perceives caution as weakness and an invitation to keep going.
Russia retains the initiative and continues escalating. Our failure to meet this strategy with a sufficient response is the reason for the escalation, not a path to de-escalation. This is the main reason for anxiety on the eastern flank that Putin might test Article 5.
Our unilateral attempts at de-escalation are not leading to the de-escalation of anything. If we do not change our approach, we might find ourselves dealing with a seismic geopolitical disaster. And a global one, at that.
Therefore it is imperative to change our approach, embrace strategic ambiguity, break taboos and include all available options in our toolkit. Such suggestions should be welcomed, not dismissed.
If we think defeat can be limited to Ukraine, and Putin will have no further ambitions, we have a very harsh lesson coming. But if we want Ukraine to win we must keep everything we have on the table.”
https://en.rattibha.com/thread/1762891942176710988
Fess/Socrates/nadia
I’m usually quite pragmatic, but this has shaken me to my core.
I am so sad for them and there is nothing I can do or say that can make it better
Green & Gold 6.25am
“Truth often isn’t congruent with a socialist world view I’m afraid”
You need to take something for those “polls”.
They’re not budging.
Steve777
Melbourne had 6 mm rain in February
And the forecast is dry going forward
Adelaide had ZERO rain in February.
Trump is ‘out of avenues’: Ex-prosecutor predicts Letitia James will soon seize property
Attorney General Letitia James could soon begin seizing former President Donald Trump’s New York property if, as a recent court filing indicates, he can’t pay the more-than $450 million judgment in his civil fraud trial, a former federal prosecutor said Thursday.
Former U.S. Attorney Joyce Vance made this argument on MSNBC – “Trump in essence was trying to negotiate with the judge, saying I will give you $100 million, but I won’t give you $450 million, with interest accumulating every day,” Vance said. “Of course, that doesn’t work.”
“While he is appealing, New York’s attorney general is free to go ahead and begin to execute the judgment she’s received against him,” Vance said. “She may, for instance, try to go after some of his real property.”
Trump’s New York properties include the gilded Trump Tower and a skyscraper at 40 Wall St. that James has mentioned by name.
Victoria @ Friday, March 1, 2024 at 8:27 am:
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Victoria, that is so sad.
Holden hillbilly
No doubt parts of Melbourne didn’t get a drop either
Alan Kohler making sense …
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2024/02/29/alan-kohler-nuclear-power
The debate about nuclear is confected to make it appear that our political duopoly – who basically agree on everything – are offering alternative policies.
As usual, the reality is more about fossil fuels – and delaying our transition away from them.
Who remembers this clanger from one Kevin “Greatest moral challenge of our time … oh, wait …” Rudd?
I must admit I had not. But somehow it does not surprise me 🙁
Macarthur
It is.
It sounds cliched, but they are the sweetest and nicest people you could ever know
They were so excited to become parents for the first time
Sydney had 176 mm in February and 416 mm for the Summer (Botanic Gardens).
Something about Palmer’s Party and Craig Kelly came up a couple of days ago.
Kelly has jumped ship again to Hanson
https://www.theage.com.au/national/craig-kelly-now-hanson-s-hero-after-deserting-palmer-s-party-20240229-p5f8w6.html
goll says:
Friday, March 1, 2024 at 8:39 am
“You need to take something for those “polls”.
They’re not budging.”
Thats called middle Australia focusing on their day job and their finances and not on wild pollical speculation.
They decide who represents them anyway
Also, for the ‘edification’ of Oliver Not-Dutton…
Trite:
Adjective
(of a remark or idea) lacking originality or freshness; dull on account of overuse.
A.k.a tone deaf…
‘Asio chief defends decision not to name ‘sell-out’ politician
Daniel Hurst
Daniel Hurst
The head of Asio, Mike Burgess, has defended his decision not to name the former Australian politician alleged to have “sold out their country, party and former colleagues” after being recruited by spies for a foreign regime.
Burgess sparked an intense round of political intrigue after airing the allegations in his annual threat assessment speech on Wednesday night. Some current and former MPs called for the individual to be named or at least for some further details to be disclosed to avoid sullying the reputation of others.
In a statement issued on Thursday night, Burgess said he could “understand the interest in Asio providing more details about the individual mentioned in a case study” in his speech, but added:
It is an historic matter that was appropriately dealt with at the time. The individual is no longer of security concern.
In this case, while we want the foreign intelligence service to know its cover is blown, we do not want it to unpick how we discovered its activities.
Burgess said Australia’s democracy remained robust with free elections and “the overwhelming majority of our politicians remain thoroughly resistant to even the most sophisticated and subtle approaches”.’
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This is cynical bullshit piled on bullshit.
1. Burgess claims it is a historic matter. He must have known that announcing this in the week before the Dunkley by-election it would become a current matter. It has, with lots of speculation about the identity of the guilty party.
2. Hockey has disingenuously called for the miscreant to be outed. Dutton has offered to put money on it being a Labor politician. Both had access to security briefings. Is this public commentary an indication that they are abusing access to security briefings for party political purposes? This is a serious matter. There needs to be an inquiry into this possibility.
3. Naming the politician would not, as Burgess claims, out the methodology used to track this spy ring.
4. Burgess claims the matter has been dealt with. How? A politician has committed an egregious crime. Have the allegations been tested in a court? Was a conviction obtained? Why are Australian citizens being held in contempt like this by Burgess?
5. Burgess must know that Albanese cannot sack him lest it be seen that Albanese is protecting a Labor MP.
6. Various MPs have felt the need to defend themselves publicly.
7. Until this individual is outed, all MPs are suspect.
Burgess must do the decent thing for our democracy which he professes to admire and which he has, beyond a shadow of a doubt, damaged.
Burgess must resign.
Maybe at some future time we’ll have nuclear reactors in the energy mix. I am open to that. If so, they should be built, owned and operated by the Federal Government, with laws that make future privatisation as difficult as practicable. No subsidising private rent-seekers, no socialising the risks and losses while privatising the gains. And no nuclear lobby to add to all the others.
Be all that as it may, that’s at least 20 years down the track. We can’t keep on burning coal ‘til then, which is the real agenda of the current nuclear push.
My wife has just gone to work, leaving channel 7 news on!
Omg! Pravda would blush at the rampant propaganda being pedalled as news.
52/48 ALP is my hopeful prediction. The state libs really are on the nose here. I can’t see the electorate forgetting that.
That said the sussan ley tweet just handed the teals another couple of Victorian seats. Do the LNP really think we are all close minded racists?
My wife has just gone to work, leaving channel 7 news on!
Omg! Pravda would blush at the rampant propaganda being pedalled as news.
52/48 ALP is my hopeful prediction. The state libs really are on the nose here. I can’t see the electorate forgetting that.
That said the sussan ley tweet just handed the teals another couple of Victorian seats. Do the LNP really think we are all close minded racists? 100% of us?
Victoria
That is just awful news. I am so sorry. My condolences to you and to all the family.