Dunkley eve miscellany (open thread)

A cliffhanger expected tomorrow in Dunkley, as Liberal preselection candidates jockey ahead of the next by-election off the rank in Cook.

Reports continue to suggest both parties expect a tight result in the Dunkley by-election, which this site will be over like a rash during counting tomorrow evening, being likely the only place that will publish results at booth level as they are reported. The Australian reports Liberal internal polling pointing to a swing of about 5%, just short of the 6.3% needed to win. Labor is reportedly concerned that its chances will be harmed by low turnout: as of Wednesday, 15.15% of enrolled voters had cast early votes, which compares with 17.93% and 17.08% at the same stage before last year’s by-elections in Aston and Fadden.

Other electoral news of the last week:

• A weekend Liberal preselection vote for the Perth seat of Curtin, which the party lost to teal independent Kate Chaney, resulted in a 192-64 vote win for Tom White, former Uber chief executive in South Korea and staffer to state MP Peter Collier, ahead of Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter now employed in government relations at naval shipbuilder Luerssen Australia.

Michelle Grattan of The Conservation quotes a Labor sources saying it is “highly unlikely” the party will contest the by-election for Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook, the date for which remains to be confirmed. Reports increasingly indicate Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce, initially presumed the front-runner, faces stiff competition from Simon Kennedy, McKinsey partner and unsuccessful Bennelong candidate. Pesce has mostly moderate backing, including from state party leader Mark Speakman, while Simon Kennedy has mostly conservative supporters including Tony Abbott and Dominic Perrottet, although an exception appears to be moderate Senator Dave Sharma. Rounding out the field of four are Gwen Cherne, veteran family advocate commissioner, and the little-fancied Benjamin Britton, an army veteran and former United Australia Party candidate. The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports ANZ banker Alex Cooke, whose campaign slogan would have written itself, has withdrawn.

• A suggestion that Liberal moderates including powerbroker Michael Photios hope to persuade independent Wentworth MP Allegra Spender to join their party and faction in the “medium term”, potentially with an offer of a front bench position, has received short shrift from the proposed target. The Financial Review reports those concerned are “unconvinced it will be possible to wrest the once safe Sydney seat away from her”, and believe her 4% margin “has grown since she entered parliament”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,012 comments on “Dunkley eve miscellany (open thread)”

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  1. Grant_ExLibris @ #890 Sunday, March 3rd, 2024 – 5:38 pm

    HH @ 1700

    “Private spy firm”

    K2?

    WTAF?!!!

    How can you outsource national security? Oh of course the Tories / LNP would think it is a better use of taxpayer’s money.

    I think the United Kingdom is going to be shortly entering a world of pain that will make the 1980s highly controversial movie/made for TV program about the end of the world ‘Threads’ following a nuclear attack in Kent look like a Wiggles episode.

    Mick Herron anticipated the fall so accurately in the Slow Horses series. Send in Slough House…

  2. Socratessays:
    Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 6:07 pm
    ======================================

    Second ball he faced, the bowlers are targeting his head on purpose.

  3. Time for Pucovski to firstly get well, then find something else to do. A young bloke with lots of support and contacts, with the rest of his life ahead of him.

  4. Entropy

    Two bouncers an over vs specialist batsmen is legal in cricket.
    Either Pucovski can deal with that, or he has no place in first class cricket.

    11 prior concussions would see you ruled out of many pro sports.

  5. Fair whack by Charles Croucher on Nine 9 News about Dutton wtte you don’t deserve to win as a leader if you don’t turn up to booths on a byelection Polling Day.

    Was very reminiscent of a Laurie Oakes like delivery….

  6. What are the lengths Peter Dutton will go for Gina Rinehart? How about flying to Perth for *one hour*, in order to attend her birthday party, and then flying to Melbourne to campaign on the cost-of-living Dunkley by-election.Tomorrow's column:https://t.co/dfP2pIl4oX— Mark Di Stefano (@MarkDiStef) March 3, 2024

  7. “What are the lengths Peter Dutton will go for Gina Rinehart? How about flying to Perth for *one hour*, in order to attend her birthday party …”

    Cue Jo Stafford:

    ‘Fly to Gina in a silver plane
    Don’t go bothering ‘bout your campaign
    Just remember ’til you’re home again
    You belong to me’

  8. Jimmy Webster’s late hit was really just a criminal act.

    Maybe a $75,000 fine to go with 8-10 week suspension

  9. “Second ball he faced, the bowlers are targeting his head on purpose.”

    He ducked into a chest-high delivery.

    His technique is shot – it might not have ever been great given his injury history. He may lace a glorious off drive but I’m concerned he’s going to get killed on the field if he keeps playing, let alone what CTE might do to his mental health later in life.

  10. It’s the Instagram photo that has sent conservative forces within the federal Liberal Party into meltdown. “An absolute act of naivety,” said one senior Liberal source. Said another: “Unforgivable”.
    At around 10.30pm on Saturday night, Liberal MP for Flinders Zoe McKenzie posted a selfie with the yet to be declared new Labor member for Dunkley Jodie Belyea. In her post, Ms McKenzie congratulates the Labor candidate after the outcome of the result in the by-election was declared.
    The post shows Ms McKenzie, who replaced former Coalition health minister Greg Hunt as the member for Flinders following his retirement before the 2022 election, with her arm around Ms Belyea. Supporters of Ms McKenzie, however, say that she has always been a strong supporter of the late Dunkley MP Peta Murphy as a champion for women.
    Point taken. The image posted by Ms McKenzie was presented as a show of solidarity among women representing the Mornington Peninsula of Melbourne.

    “Congratulations Jodie Belyea,” Ms McKenzie says in the post. “You have been a good friend to women across the Mornington Peninsula, Look forward to working with you in looking after paradise.” Flinders and Dunkley are adjoining electorates but are politically, poles apart.
    The sentiment of unity, however, wasn’t shared by Ms McKenzie’s more hardened Liberal colleagues not only in Victoria but further afield. “I was floored,” a senior Liberal source told The Australian. “To say the anger among the ranks is palpable would be an understatement.”
    The Instagram image has spread through national Liberal ranks like wildfire. “We are at war with Labor. To think this new breed of Liberal thinks otherwise is infuriating.” “We are going to run a campaign against Jodie Belyea at the next election, what do we do now?”
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/unforgivable-liberal-fury-at-mp-zoe-mckenzies-snap-with-labors-dunkley-victor-jodie-belyea/news-story/ea57a188b2adf76c09e66a429a9867df?amp

  11. “It’s the Instagram photo that has sent conservative forces within the federal Liberal Party into meltdown. “An absolute act of naivety,” said one senior Liberal source. Said another: “Unforgivable”.”

    Humanity will not be tolerated in the federal Liberal Party.
    Future Teal candidate?

  12. Flinders was a seat at great risk from a “Teal” candidate until it was discovered that the Teal was ineligible. There was also another independent running too. The Labor candidate had a Snowball’s chance – literally…. her name was Surbhi Snowball.
    If start throwing shit at Zoe McKenzie and kick her out, then yes she probably would win it as independent.

  13. Human friendship and mutual respect across the political divide are ‘unforgivable’ in today’s Liberal Party.

  14. C@tmomma:

    Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 6:04 pm

    [‘If anyone is interested in spending 3/4 of an hour listening to Constitutional Law Professor, Jamie Raskin explain various Amendments to the Constitution…’]

    Thanks, cat. I find Raskin very impressive. He’s quite adept at articulating difficult concepts in a basic way.

    ____________________________________

    I viewed for the first time in many a moon “Insiders” this morning and noted that Speers was far less interruptive. I don’t know if he was giving Tehan latitude or changing his style. If the Tories think Dan is the answer to their problems, even a future leader, I hope they don’t bank on it, as he was (including Ley) the one who banged on about the dangers of going out at night in Frankston, in fear of criminals.

  15. To me, Louise Staley comes across as a person unemployable outside of politics. I don’t think I’ve heard her ever say a sentence that wasn’t some kind of venomous sledge against Labor.

    Something of a Sophie Mirabella type of Victorian Liberal.

  16. How much does Gina Reinhart have invested in mining companies that produce the raw ingredients for SMRs I wonder?

  17. I note the continued absence in the West’s coverage, most recently Spagnolo, in referring to Brian Burke’s links to the Liberal party and the problems for Mettam’s leadership, to Zempilas seeking his advice prior to nominating.

    I know it’s beginning to be a broken record, but the fact is that Seven West Media is whiteanting the Liberal leader- who is in parliament – in favour of its employee who is not on the basis of Burke links in her Cabinet. Meanwhile, this crime is not one that applies to their guy, to quote a family friend of his, “Apparently.”

  18. By the way, I was domiciled in Frankston for 3 years. There seemed to be a pub on all four points of the compass.

  19. meher,

    I note with concern – but not much – that you accused me last night of ‘stalking’ you. That’s a furphy, in my view. Once you stop fence-sitting on various issues, I’ll leave you alone.

  20. Shellbell

    +1 on Jimmy Webster. I just watched the video. Inexcusable.
    If Powell Pepper got six weeks he is in a lot of trouble.

  21. Mavis @ Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 7:59 pm:

    “I viewed for the first time in many a moon “Insiders” this morning and noted that Speers was far less interruptive. I don’t know if he was giving Tehan latitude or changing his style.”
    ============

    Tehan is a Liberal. There’s your answer right there.

  22. Socrates – Powell Pepper got 4 weeks. Webster’s strike was worse.
    The question I have is why are the players trying so hard in practice matches?

  23. If I recall correctly from last night, Jock, a new contributor, suggests that Meher’s posts are the bee’s knees. All I can add is that there’s politics per se, and then there’s the politics of this site. With that, I’ll take my due.

  24. B S Fairman

    It’s instinct.
    Deep down inside humans want to hurt opponents.
    Started with the cave men.
    You can teach and train and punish offenders till the cows come home but every now and then a player will have a brain fade.

  25. Dandy Murraysays:
    Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 8:31 pm
    Agreed, Shellbell.

    If St Kilda had any class they’d let Webster go.
    __________
    What a load of shite. As a 33 year St Kilda member that was there today down that end and it was a horrible incident that deserves the many weeks he’ll cop. I’m very disappointed that he made such a poor decision in the current climate.

    I’ll also say though that watching over 80% of Jimmy’s games over his career it was totally out of character. He will get a long suspension and will have to work his way back into the team.

    The StKilda FC having class wouldn’t start with them tearing up the contract of a long playing servant at their lowest point for an onfield in game incident.

    As always other club supporters are full of BS advice that they wouldn’t adopt for their own club.

    Exceedingly poor decision by him and under the rules a very long suspension. When it’s written in the rules that it is career ending then I’ll listen otherwise it’s stupid calling for something that’s never going to happen and to me smacks od holier than thou.

  26. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 8:12 pm
    How much does Gina Reinhart have invested in mining companies that produce the raw ingredients for SMRs I wonder?
    =================================================

    Strangely enough she has much more invested in the material that produces wind towers (steel) and batteries (lithium). I think she is a bit of right wing ideologue and this is not a business related matter for her.

  27. Mavissays:
    Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 8:20 pm
    By the way, I was domiciled in Frankston for 3 years. There seemed to be a pub on all four points of the compass.
    ==================================================

    Maybe you have the luck of the Irish. Which ever way you set off you end up at a pub?.

  28. I can’t remember the last time I saw something as deliberately brutal as Jimmy Webster’s flying head hunting shoulder hit on Jy Simpkin.

    We’re about to find out how serious the AFL is about protecting the head from intentional savagery. I can’t believe he did it after the publicity surrounding Powell-Pepper’s hit on Mark Keane. Powell-Pepper didn’t leave the ground and there is some truth in the defence that Keane was swung into him.

    Powell-Pepper deserved his four weeks and Webster deserves ten to twelve weeks. The AFL should go ancient Roman on his arse and crucify him. They should then stick him up on the Appian Way as a public example to any other stupid thug who shouldn’t be playing the game.

  29. “When it’s written in the rules that it is career ending…”

    Ahuh. It should be.

    It wasn’t meant to be a dig at the Saints, but at AFL administration generally.

  30. ”China has been revealed as the country behind the political black ops co-opting of a former Australian MP.”

    To the surprise of … no one.

  31. Parky

    Not that familiar with Webster but as a West Australian I have watched Powell- Pepper and at times thought he hasn’t quite delivered on potential.
    Two years ago he was given a new role as a pressure forward and I think he took harder line. He was very good last year and was rewarded, I believe, with a new contract and membership of Port’s leadership group.
    So in some ways I was not surprised at what he did.
    Some players have to live closer to the edge than others.

  32. Steve – Yes, it was hardly likely to be Ghana or Peru.
    It could have been the Russians but they don’t really have enough interest in Australia.

  33. Dandy Murraysays:
    Sunday, March 3, 2024 at 9:06 pm
    “When it’s written in the rules that it is career ending…”

    Ahuh. It should be.

    It wasn’t meant to be a dig at the Saints, but at AFL administration generally.
    ___________
    ok Dandy that day may come but all AFL followers better be prepared to accept it.

    In any event I suspect he’ll get half a season. I also suspect that he won’t be the last this season as AFL players have been trained and built over the past 15 years to be cannonballs so every so often one will explode.

    Rainman. “hung drawn and quartered”?FMD. That’s as stupid a thing I’ve read. Emotive rubbish.

  34. Cost of Living Crisis

    .. again the culprit is unsustainable choices.. & is Albo supposed to rein in those costs at the expence of increased carbon output.. it’s well past time for the Government, bureaucracy & developers to take an holistic approach.. first step stop suburban sprawl & if it must increase make it sustainable.
    SMH..
    Drivers in capital cities faced increases of 12.4% while the average driver in regional areas was hit with a 13.7% rise.

    High up-front costs for buying new vehicles, higher car loan interest rates and increasing insurance premiums were behind the ballooning transport costs, according to the Australian Automobile Association’s Transport Affordability Index.

    Sabrina Mo works as a building designer in Sydney’s inner west and travels around NSW for work, including the occasional trip interstate.

    She is feeling the cost increases.

    Car registration and insurance costs increased by more than $300 in 2023 compared to the previous year while her toll payments almost doubled.

    “Everything is just too expensive,” Mo said.

  35. I’m not seeing a Cost of Living Crisis. I’m seeing a, Everything Has a Cost Crisis of Decadence. And people just want to be able to have it all.

  36. “ China has been revealed as the country behind the political black ops co-opting of a former Australian MP.”

    Shocked! I’m shocked! What is next, corruption in the Liberal Party?

    BSF, Rossmcg

    Thanks for clarifying re 4 weeks for SPP. I don’t think that changes my view of the Webster hit.

    Saying we all can act like cavemen is making (weak) excuses for those who do. Most don’t. There will always be some who do, but the more we make excuses for them, the more will be likely to do the same.

    I recommend the book “Blood and Guts: Violence in Sports”, which studies it across many codes over time. The overwhelming conclusion is that the more a sport tolerates violence, the more occurs in play. Catharsis is a myth.

  37. From earlier…..
    Langer may have started at no3 but his technique was well suited to opening. In fact, his technique is almost as pure an openers technique as Rogers.

    Easy to argue Smith is a better batter but as an opener, I’d take Langer every time. Even tho he’d give me the shits.

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