RedBridge Group has conducted its first federal poll for the year, and the movement it records since its last poll in early December is in favour of the Coalition, who are up three points on the primary vote to 38%. Labor and the Greens are steady at 33% and 13% with others down three to 16%, and Labor records a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, in from 52.8-47.2. A question on negative gearing finds an even split of 39% each for and against the status quo, with the latter composed of 16% who favour removing it from new rental properties in future and 23% for removing it altogether. Further detail is forthcoming, including on field work dates and sample size.
Progressive think tank the Australia Institute has published a number of federal seat-level automated phone polls conducted by uComms, most notably for Dunkley, whose by-election is now less than three weeks away. The result is a 52-48 lead to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 56.3-43.7 split in favour of Labor in 2022. After distributing a forced response follow-up question for the unusually large 17% undecided component, the primary votes are Labor 40.1% (40.2% at the election), Liberal 39.3% (32.5%), Greens 8.2% (10.3%) and others 12.4% (16.9%). A question on the tax cut changes finds 66.3% in favour and 28.1% opposed, although the question offered a bit too much explanatory detail for my tastes. The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 626.
The other polls are from the teal independent seats of Kooyong, Mackellar and Wentworth, conducted last Monday from samples of 602 to 647. They show the incumbents leading in each case despite losing primary vote share to Labor, together with strong support for the tax cut changes. In Kooyong, distributing results from a forced response follow-up for the 9.7% undecided produces primary vote shares of 33.5% for Monique Ryan (the only candidate mentioned by name, down from 40.3% in 2022), 39.5% for the Liberals (42.7%), 15.7% for Labor (6.9%) and 7.5% for the Greens (6.3%). Ryan is credited with a 56-44 lead on two-candidate preferred, but preference flows from 2022 would make it more like 53.5-46.5.
In Mackellar, distribution of the 10.8% initially undecided gets incumbent Sophie Scamps to 32.2% of the primary vote (38.1%), with 39.3% for Liberal (41.4%), 14.8% for Labor (8.2%) and 6.6% for the Greens (6.1%). This comes out at 54-46 after preferences (52.5-47.5 in 2022), but I make is 52.7-47.3 using the flows from 2022. In Wentworth, Allegra Spender gets the best result out of the three, with distribution of 6.3% undecided putting her primary vote at 35.1% (35.8% in 2022), with Liberal on 39.0% (40.5%), Labor on 15.3% (10.9%) and Greens on 10.4% (8.3%). The reported two-candidate preferred is 57-43, but the preference flow in this case is weaker than it was when she won by 54.2-45.8 in 2022, the result being 59.2-40.8 based on preference flows at the election.
Federal preselection news:
• Andrew Hough of The Advertiser reports South Australia’s Liberals will determine the order of their Senate ticket “within weeks”, with the moderate Anne Ruston tussling with the not-moderate Alex Antic for top place. The third incumbent, David Fawcett, a Senator since 2011 and previously member for Wakefield from 2004 to 2007, will be left to vie for the dubious third position against political staffer and factional conservative Leah Blyth.
• The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports nominations have closed for the Liberal preselection in Gilmore, and that Andrew Constance has again put his name forward, after narrowly failing to win the seat in 2022 and twice being overlooked for Senate vacancies last year. He faces competition from Paul Ell, a moderate-aligned lawyer and Shoalhaven deputy mayor who had long been mentioned as a potential candidate for the seat, having been persuaded to leave the path clear for Constance in 2022.
• Hannah Cross of The West Australian reports Sean Ayres, a 26-year-old lawyer and staffer to former member Ben Morton, has emerged as a fourth Liberal preselection contender in the normally conservative Perth seat of Tangney, joining SAS veteran Mark Wales, Canning mayor and former police officer Patrick Hall and IT consultant Harold Ong.
Of the five judges appointed to the Federal Court straight out of parliament, four were ALP.
Socrates @ #47 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 9:21 am
Agreed. Both major parties have form on stacking appointments. It also illustrates why we need a stronger cross bench, even if you support one of the major parties. In any political party there are always going to be bad apples.
Donald Trump kicked off Super Bowl day by bashing Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift in a rant on social media — branding the Kansas City Chief star as a “liberal” and his singer-songwriter girlfriend “disloyal”.
Trump took credit for the meteoric success of Swift’s ongoing Eras tour and recent “Album of the Year” Grammy win — claiming he, the former president, was actually “the man who made her so much money”.
Donald Trump is a leech on true talent.
Trump, as ever, full of shit.
Holdenhillbilly @ #54 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 9:43 am
In other news, “Jesus could not have walked on water without me” states Trump, “God asked me how he could get his son to be the Lord of Men on this Earth. God and Jesus owes me bigly.”
Donald Trump trying to make himself bigger than the NFL Super Bowl and the biggest musician in the world. Situation normal, it’s all about him and his attention deficit disorder in the literal sense.
‘In rural, regional affairs and transport estimates, coalition senators appear frustrated to learn the government is claiming public interest immunity over details of the modelling underpinning the landmark fuel efficiency standard.’
Oh, dear. The more things change …
‘Bridget McKenzie and Matt Canavan appeared frustrated upon learning the immunity claim had been made by transport minister Catherine King …’
Bridget wants to see the modelling in a colour-coded spreadsheet.
(Guardian blog)
“You gotta pay your bills!”, declares Mr Tup.*
My hypocrisy meter just exploded.
* anagram
NFL and Trump deserve each other. There is no way I will watch either of the two.
shellbell @ #51 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 9:38 am
Is this correct?
From memory, Barton, Isaacs and Barwick were all non-Labor MHRs. I think there were more.
“Agreed. Both major parties have form on stacking appointments. It also illustrates why we need a stronger cross bench, even if you support one of the major parties. In any political party there are always going to be bad apples.”
@Player One
I’m happy to acknowledge the criticism of Mark Dreyfuss appointment. I don’t know anything of his background in terms of qualifications but he was previous Labor candidate and had links union movement which Dreyfuss should have known this would be viewed as a conflict of interest.
But you lose credibility with the comment both ‘major parties have form’ when what the Liberals did with the mass of stacking administrative appeals tribunal was unprecedented. It wasn’t just the odd selection it was a mass stacking of former coalition politicians, canidates, and staffers. It was ridiculous and an absolute disgrace. And for you just to fob it off as both major parties are as bad each other is rewriting history. Just to reinforce your Labor and Liberal are Tweedledee/Tweedledum narrative.
Donald Trump ‘Did Nothing’ on Music Modernization Act, Key Attorney Behind Legislation Says, Despite His Claim That He Made Taylor Swift ‘So Much Money’
https://variety.com/2024/music/news/trump-did-nothing-on-music-modernization-taylor-swift-1235907368/
Sorry Shellbell, I see you are talking about the Federal court rather that the High Court where the preponderance of non-Labor appointments is marked.
Of the High Court, Henry Higgins was another but a little odd.
While he served as a Labor Attorney-General under Watson, he was a Protectionist. He was appointed by Deakin.
Trump really is getting quite out of control.
He is surely pissing off many parts of the US electorate at the moment: Ukrainian Americans, Taiwanese Americans, Korean Americans – indeed, most Americans of east and southeast Asian backgrounds except a minority of Chinese immigrants who are strong supporters of the communist regime. And Jewish Americans must be concerned about Congress’s continuing failure to pass bills providing aid to Israel. And then there are migrants from frontline NATO countries and their descendants who would be getting a little bothered: Polish Americans, Finnish Americans, etc. And now there are Taylor Swift fans (or, at least, their parents) as well as fans of the Kansas City Chiefs.
Yes, there are also Hispanic and African-American voters being driven away from the Democrats by the wokeness of the political left. And Biden’s seemingly growing senility is a worry: Americans understandably have a deep-seated fear about having someone in the Oval Office who might be inclined to say something like “What happens if I press this button?”
But I would have thought that Trump is currently pissing off many more voters (or, at least, causing them deep consternation) than he is attracting. There surely must be a point where this becomes a problem.
I reckon the only drug that Joyce mixed with his alcohol was more alcohol.
I saw a clip of him trying to get to his seat on the H of R, pissed.
He is an alcoholic, obviously. The pill mixing was probably dreamt up with the aid of his spin doctor wife.
I reckon the only drug that Joyce mixed with his alcohol was more alcohol.
I saw a clip of him trying to get to his seat on the H of R, pissed.
He is an alcoholic, obviously. The pill mixing was probably dreamt up with the aid of his spin doctor wife.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/02/12/monday-miscellany-redbridge-poll-dunkley-and-teal-seat-polls-preselection-latest-open-thread/comment-page-2/#comment-4225591
More a mosquito than a leech. Not only sucks blood but leaves behind a deadly disease.
Socrates on Sun at one minute to midnight
“With the sales pitch done, the UK is retreating back to trying to get back into the EU, after realising that BREXIT was a financial disaster for UK.”
Do you think that, after such a prolonged and rancorous divorce, the EU will ever be smitten with Britain again? More unlikely than a modicum of integrity from Dutton or Trump.
Look at UK polling:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Tories are steaming ahead to a wipeout, even with Starmer as Labour leader. The only change in the past few months is that the Tories have lost more support, this time to the Farage remnants.
Political Nightwatchman @ #62 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 10:01 am
And you lose credibility by using the “Ok, yes we did it too – but they did it worse than us!” argument.
This is just childish stuff. Let’s elect some adults.
Is the National Party so devoid of talent that it needs to keep a drunken idiot on its shadow front bench?. His drunken antics have long be reported, this is hardly his first offence. He is a national embarrassment. What’s worse, it appears just getting drunk from alcohol no longer has the kick for him it use to have. He is now reverting to the mixing of prescription medicine (i’m assuming he has a prescription?) with his alcohol to get a bigger kick. A highly dubious practice at best. Fact that the National Party thinks it is alright to hoist on the Australian public this most despicable of substance abusers. The rich elite son of prosperity who had everything handed to him on a plate but still became a behavioural wastrel. Tells us all we need to know about the ethics and morality of one of the most depraved of political parties the Nationals.
I’m sure plenty of the good people of New England would pay half their daily wages just to have a beer with their MHR and former Deputy Prime Minister (a job which he may well take up again in a year or two). They would vote for him even if he sold off his own daughter to be concubine for Donald Trump.
Mr Tup! I like it. I might try it for a bit. Thank you, Oliver Sutton.
Now if the Dodgy Bruce character was still around he would have ‘sniffed out’ the drinking session that Barnaby was attending and would have seen him home ‘safely’, but because all those dastardly Green/Labor staffers were around, he was left adrift in the gutters of Braddon.
The Canberra Bubble at its worst!
P1: “And you lose credibility by using the “Ok, yes we did it too – but they did it worse than us!” argument.”
“Umpy, umpy, why did you penalise us? They’ve been doing the same thing all day!”
That said, the use of the AAT as a gravy train for a bunch of Coalition foot soldiers was unprecedentedly industrial in its strength. Coalition loyalists should hang their heads in shame.
MelbourneMammoth says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 10:14 am
I’m sure plenty of the good people of New England would pay half their daily wages just to have a beer with their MHR and former Deputy Prime Minister (a job which he may well take up again in a year or two). They would vote for him even if he sold off his own daughter to be concubine for Donald Trump.
+1 they are Trump-like in that Barnyard hates the people they hate. That he gets pissed and rolls around on the ground from time to time just makes him more ‘relatable’ and a knock-about-bloke. They aren’t after a policy politician , just someone who’ll pull out all the stops to reject the stuff they don’t want.
Holdenhillbillysays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:43 am
Donald Trump kicked off Super Bowl day by bashing Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift in a rant on social media — branding the Kansas City Chief star as a “liberal” and his singer-songwriter girlfriend “disloyal”.
===================================================
What was she disloyal about?. Not far from accusing someone of being “disloyal” to next excusing them of being a “traitor”. A crime that in some USA states still carries the death penalty for the more extreme offences. If Trump becomes President again will he execute traitors and would not supporting Trump be enough to find you charged with that crime?.
Confessions at 6.22 am
“Andrew Constance living the adage that if at first you don’t succeed, try, try, try, try, try, AND TRY again.”
The Frank Spencer of NSW politics. Constance is out of his depth, just like the more likeable Spencer:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miG3Db-1-pI
Andrew_Earlwood at 7.10 am
You were instructed by a very good local solicitor, Tony Cullinan, who is photographed in this ABC story:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-29/cultural-fishing-charges-dropped-nsw-legal-uncertainty/102535954
Entropy: “What was she disloyal about?”
She doesn’t appreciate that Trump is somehow (don’t ask me how) personally responsible for all of her recent success.
Dr Doolittle says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 10:11 am
What is the largest uk poll turnaround win?
Regarding Mr Tup’s now infamous need for “loyalty”. When you’re the king, loyalty takes on a more sinister meaning.
meher baba at 10.21 am
I’m sure that, upon reflection, you meant to mean that Barnaby is, mentally speaking, a bit of a runt.
Where is the enterprising Aussie journo who could write his biography? – Sloshed: The Hide of Barnaby.
MB:
Well said.
Dog’s Brunchsays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 10:15 am
Now if the Dodgy Bruce character was still around he would have ‘sniffed out’ the drinking session that Barnaby was attending and would have seen him home ‘safely’, but because all those dastardly Green/Labor staffers were around, he was left adrift in the gutters of Braddon.
The Canberra Bubble at its worst!
=========================================================
Partly right, under the guise of taking him home. He would of, for reasons i want speculate on, taken him instead in a very drunken state to Linda Reynolds office. Where after half a hour he would of left him there for no obvious reason. Next morning Barnaby would have woken up naked.
Taylor Swift is American, and as such is expected to swear fealty to the King of America like every other subject.
The Coalition appoint business types to … everything. But woe betide Labor if it appoints someone with union connections.
MelbourneMammoth @ #73 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 10:14 am
There was some interesting studies done, sorry I cant recall who by, which showed that historically if a person who lived in the rural seats of NSW and Qld chose to state publicly that they no longer supported the National Party then they faced social ostracization.
Why, because the National Party was not just a political movement, it was a social movement. The standard volunteer organisations such as the CWA, Rotary, and Lyons were full of National Party supporters. Your church and the school P&F, the local hardware store owner, so on and so forth were all supporters to the National Party.
“The Coalition appoint business types to … everything. But woe betide Labor if it appoints someone with union connections.”
This is true, the LNP does have access to a pool of people who have technically never been in the party but are more partisan than a union leader.
But still there is no excuse for either the secret NACC nor trying to plonk in even a throughly competent party person into a NACC type body, it shows complete contempt, for the body, for voters and for democracy.
That the libs are as bad or worse is no defence. These guys are just objectively very bad.
And you lose credibility by using the “Ok, yes we did it too – but they did it worse than us!” argument.
This is just childish stuff. Let’s elect some adults.
@Player One
You didn’t acknowledge any my points in my post. Just cling to your Labor and Liberal are the same narrative. Good for you!
Mixing medicine with alcohol to get an enhanced high. Is worse than taking straight alcohol in my opinion. The fact that Barnaby mixed medicine with alcohol. In what way does that absolve him of his actions?. It seems to be a far more reckless action than drinking alcohol straight.
In 2002, I appeared, as a solicitor against Jeff Shaw QC, recently retired NSWAG, concerning the NSW OHS Act which he had introduced into parliament before a bench of three judges, two of whom he had appointed.
Sceptic at 10.24 am
With respect, that question is irrelevant, because the Tories are slip-sliding away in terms of popularity.
The pertinent question is whether, later this year, the Tories will lose worse than in 1997, or than in 1906.
Here is an interview with the leading UK polling expert, John Curtice, about 14 months ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlENcZYJgQQ
His main point is at the end. Any party in power creating fiscal chaos will be defeated without doubt.
Here is another interview with Curtice sometime in the past year:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AL3bnJP9PEw
The big 4 problems for the Tories are:
1) Hypocrisy of Tory behaviour during lockdown.
2) Chronic nature of British economic decline.
3) Dire condition of National Health Service.
4) Decline of other public services.
In his very moderate way, he says the Tories have no hope at all of turning around any of those faults.
MI: “There was some interesting studies done, sorry I cant recall who by, which showed that historically if a person who lived in the rural seats of NSW and Qld chose to state publicly that they no longer supported the National Party then they faced social ostracization. Why, because the National Party was not just a political movement, it was a social movement. The standard volunteer organisations such as the CWA, Rotary, and Lyons were full of National Party supporters. Your church and the school P&F, the local hardware store owner, so on and so forth were all supporters to the National Party.”
———————————————
That was because the people in the bush long believed – with some justification – that the National Party was doing everything it could to help the farmers and, if the farmers were going well, so would be the local economy. The Liberals, particularly in Victoria, were seen as being too inclined to support city-based big businesses and Labor was seen as promoting higher wages, which would be damaging to rural businesses.
It was a big moment in Queensland political history in 1989 when there was a massive swing from the Nationals to both the Labor and Liberal parties, sweeping Goss into government. Many rural voters, particularly those in the towns, had reached the conclusion that the leading National Party politicians no longer stood for helping farmers and the other residents of the bush, but only for helping themselves. The reputation of the Queensland National Party has never fully recovered from this.
The long-term problem for the Nats is that the town-dwelling population in the bush is becoming proportionately larger and increasingly concentrated in larger urban areas (Toowoomba, Armidale-Tamworth, Wagga Wagga, Bathurst-Orange, Dubbo, Albury-Wodonga, etc.) The people living in these places no longer feel a close connection to the farmers. Hence we are seeing a growing trend towards Liberals and independents winning the seats in which these towns are located. It’s more difficult to tell what’s going on in Queensland because of the LNP set-up, but I believe that the political power of the farmers is also declining. I think the long-term trend will be towards just one major conservative party, and a disaffected National rump that ultimately merges with One Nation.
If you are on medication that shouldn’t be mixed with alcohol, the obvious answer is not to drink alcohol. That Barnaby felt the need to have a drink anyway suggests… well… I let you all make your own judgements there.
@ P1 1011
“Let’s elect some adults”.
Where have we heard an ” adults” comment before?
For those who have forgotten, or conveniently forget….
Tony Abbott on election to PM.
And what did we get ? Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison.
Some adults they were.
Just recalling it for history’s sake.
If Joyce was not the de facto leader of the Nationals, the issue would not be such of a problem for the LNP. Although he is not actually leader at the moment that doesn’t mean much as he has previously made a comeback to the role. He also does constant media appearances, so he appears to be the leader.
Thus a majority of voters if asked would probably say he is the leader. He might be an asset for the National party in the heartland but he is poison in the Liberal party traditional ground.
Entropy says
Partly right, under the guise of taking him home. He would have, for reasons i want speculate on, taken him instead in a very drunken state to Linda Reynolds office. Where after half a hour he would have left him there for no obvious reason. Next morning Barnaby would have woken up naked
#######
We can only be relieved that we weren’t treated to the sight of a naked Barnaby spread out over the pavements of Braddon or anywhere else for that matter (shudders to myself)
meher baba @ #95 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 10:49 am
Absolutely . I do wonder if that urban population is mostly FIFO miner workers. We know the Nats are bought and sold by the mining industry, but if there is also an alignment of those new residents then that might explain why the Nats stay in power despite some obvious short comings.
It’s weird to think that Trump is likely to be cheering on the 49ers against the Chiefs.
San Francisco is the epicentre of all wokeness and is the place that Republican politics goes to die. Kansas City is located in Missouri (yes, that surprised me too when I first went there): a quintessentially middle American state that has become increasingly solid for the Republicans since the rise of Trump.