RedBridge Group has conducted its first federal poll for the year, and the movement it records since its last poll in early December is in favour of the Coalition, who are up three points on the primary vote to 38%. Labor and the Greens are steady at 33% and 13% with others down three to 16%, and Labor records a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, in from 52.8-47.2. A question on negative gearing finds an even split of 39% each for and against the status quo, with the latter composed of 16% who favour removing it from new rental properties in future and 23% for removing it altogether. Further detail is forthcoming, including on field work dates and sample size.
Progressive think tank the Australia Institute has published a number of federal seat-level automated phone polls conducted by uComms, most notably for Dunkley, whose by-election is now less than three weeks away. The result is a 52-48 lead to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 56.3-43.7 split in favour of Labor in 2022. After distributing a forced response follow-up question for the unusually large 17% undecided component, the primary votes are Labor 40.1% (40.2% at the election), Liberal 39.3% (32.5%), Greens 8.2% (10.3%) and others 12.4% (16.9%). A question on the tax cut changes finds 66.3% in favour and 28.1% opposed, although the question offered a bit too much explanatory detail for my tastes. The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 626.
The other polls are from the teal independent seats of Kooyong, Mackellar and Wentworth, conducted last Monday from samples of 602 to 647. They show the incumbents leading in each case despite losing primary vote share to Labor, together with strong support for the tax cut changes. In Kooyong, distributing results from a forced response follow-up for the 9.7% undecided produces primary vote shares of 33.5% for Monique Ryan (the only candidate mentioned by name, down from 40.3% in 2022), 39.5% for the Liberals (42.7%), 15.7% for Labor (6.9%) and 7.5% for the Greens (6.3%). Ryan is credited with a 56-44 lead on two-candidate preferred, but preference flows from 2022 would make it more like 53.5-46.5.
In Mackellar, distribution of the 10.8% initially undecided gets incumbent Sophie Scamps to 32.2% of the primary vote (38.1%), with 39.3% for Liberal (41.4%), 14.8% for Labor (8.2%) and 6.6% for the Greens (6.1%). This comes out at 54-46 after preferences (52.5-47.5 in 2022), but I make is 52.7-47.3 using the flows from 2022. In Wentworth, Allegra Spender gets the best result out of the three, with distribution of 6.3% undecided putting her primary vote at 35.1% (35.8% in 2022), with Liberal on 39.0% (40.5%), Labor on 15.3% (10.9%) and Greens on 10.4% (8.3%). The reported two-candidate preferred is 57-43, but the preference flow in this case is weaker than it was when she won by 54.2-45.8 in 2022, the result being 59.2-40.8 based on preference flows at the election.
Federal preselection news:
• Andrew Hough of The Advertiser reports South Australia’s Liberals will determine the order of their Senate ticket “within weeks”, with the moderate Anne Ruston tussling with the not-moderate Alex Antic for top place. The third incumbent, David Fawcett, a Senator since 2011 and previously member for Wakefield from 2004 to 2007, will be left to vie for the dubious third position against political staffer and factional conservative Leah Blyth.
• The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports nominations have closed for the Liberal preselection in Gilmore, and that Andrew Constance has again put his name forward, after narrowly failing to win the seat in 2022 and twice being overlooked for Senate vacancies last year. He faces competition from Paul Ell, a moderate-aligned lawyer and Shoalhaven deputy mayor who had long been mentioned as a potential candidate for the seat, having been persuaded to leave the path clear for Constance in 2022.
• Hannah Cross of The West Australian reports Sean Ayres, a 26-year-old lawyer and staffer to former member Ben Morton, has emerged as a fourth Liberal preselection contender in the normally conservative Perth seat of Tangney, joining SAS veteran Mark Wales, Canning mayor and former police officer Patrick Hall and IT consultant Harold Ong.
Australia U/19 WORLD CHAMPIONS ODI 7/253 v India 174 all out
Let’s see how Peter Dutton goes today addressing his time as Home Affairs Minister when crims, guns and money proliferated,with Coalition government funding, on his watch. Apparently Clare O’Neil should have resigned when a few recently-released detainees went hog wild after being intoxicated by freedom. So what action will Peter Dutton prescribe for himself, I wonder? More, ‘nothing to see here ‘, like he has done with BJ? Probably an, ‘I was too busy dealing with teh terrorists ‘, or something. Making sure Save the Children got investigated for telling the truth about Nauru and Manus, more like.
Andrew Constance living the adage that if at first you don’t succeed, try, try, try, try, try, AND TRY again.
Karen Andrews too.
Pax Americana could be about to end with a return to isolationism under Trump.
Mr. Trump has never believed in the fundamental one-for-all-and-all-for-one concept of the Atlantic alliance. Indeed, he spent much of his four-year presidency undermining it while strong-arming members into keeping their commitments to spend more on their own militaries with the threat that he would not come to their aid otherwise.
But he took it to a whole new level over the weekend, declaring at a rally in South Carolina that not only would he not defend European countries he deemed to be in arrears from an attack by Russia, he would go so far as to “encourage” Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” against them. Never before has a president of the United States — even a former one aspiring to reclaim the office — suggested that he would incite an enemy to attack American allies.
……….
Long averse to alliances of any kind, Mr. Trump in a second term could effectively end the security umbrella that has guarded friends in Europe, Asia, Latin America and the Middle East for much of the nearly eight decades since the end of World War II. Just the suggestion that the United States could not be depended on would negate the value of such alliances, prompt longtime friends to hedge and perhaps align with other powers and embolden the likes of Mr. Putin and Xi Jinping of China.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/11/us/politics/trump-nato.html
The Age 12/02
Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus wanted to install a legal figure with Labor links to the second-highest position in the new anti-corruption commission before the committee vetting the appointment baulked and helped kill the proposal.
___________________
That’s massive and unbelievably stupid from Dreyfus considering his past comments.
Well done the Greens.
Ah, so The Greens want to hold NG hostage to the government’s Help to Buy scheme?
If I were the government I would include Rent to Buy in the legislation and then see if The Greens still want to knock it back.
And a big election to our immediate north has virtually zero attention on this site – BW a notable exception. It is on Wednesday this week, with 205 million voters.
They do have a run off if the leading candidate does not get 50%, but it appears (former) General Prabowo may get that. The Economist aggregation of polls has him at 53%.
Current President Jokowi can’t run again due to the 2 term limit, but a fun fact for those interested in dynastic tendencies in politics is Prabowo’s running mate – the guy on the left of the General.
Gibran Rakabuming Raka is Jokowi’s eldest son.
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/prabowo-tramples-rivals-before-indonesia-s-presidential-poll-20240211-p5f407
Gibran is certainly one to follow, at 36 being the mayor of Solo.. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gibran_Rakabuming_Raka
I didn’t hear Taylormade complaining when the AAT was stacked with Liberals.
The Age 12/02
Shoebridge said the committee was provided with “sanitised” documents about the candidate rather than the original version provided by the candidate.
It sought further information and a detailed briefing with officials, which Shoebridge said culminated in the committee not wishing “to forward and endorse the nomination from [Dreyfus]”.
_____________________
Sprung bad.
sprocket _,
I know that I haven’t commented on the Indonesian election because the result seems like a foregone conclusion. What can you say about the fact that a military strongman will win?
Taylormade,
You’re an opportunistic hypocrite.
Result!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/cabbage-a-pistol-whipping-and-the-botched-prosecution-of-a-bikie-20240211-p5f40c.html
I appeared for “ME” at the six month trial last year, and subsequent Costs Application.
https://www.caselaw.nsw.gov.au/decision/18d8fb44193d525fe429dd0f#
‘There is no suggestion the judge would not have been independent of any influence. ‘
So, a political hit job. Still, not a good look.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Shane Wright says Peter Dutton has admitted the Coalition’s own income tax plan for the next election will be restricted by the state of the budget and inflation pressures across the economy while conceding there are flaws across the entire tax system.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-tax-plan-beholden-to-budget-and-inflation-dutton-20240211-p5f3y8.html
One day, the politicians who carry the can politically for inflation miscalculations will revolt against the arrogance of their economic gurus, declares Ross Gittins who says there ARE alternative actions other than the interest rate blunt instrument that can be used.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/let-s-stop-using-interest-rates-to-throttle-people-with-mortgages-20240211-p5f3xy.html
Following Barnaby Joyce’s “misadventure”, Sean Kelly examines the effect that plentiful alcohol has had on politics, and our acceptance of it.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-our-response-to-joyce-having-one-for-the-road-is-mid-strength-20240211-p5f3zm.html
Paul Sakkal reports that Peter Dutton will question Barnaby Joyce this week about why the former deputy prime minister was filmed lying on a popular Canberra street swearing on the telephone after a long parliamentary sitting day. Sakkal says that asked yesterday if Joyce should remain on the frontbench, Dutton did not specifically support Joyce’s position.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/not-normal-behaviour-joyce-to-miss-party-meeting-as-medication-mix-emerges-as-factor-in-video-20240211-p5f3yc.html
Barnaby Joyce is expected to retain his position in shadow cabinet despite the publication of a damaging video showing the Nationals MP lying on the street in Canberra yelling obscenities into his phone. Greg Brown writes that Nationals sources told The Australian they did not think he would face a sanction for the incident, with some saying they hoped he received help, while others declared it was a “storm in a teacup”.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/barnaby-safe-despite-bad-night-out/news-story/524731248f8fb49c1cfd5c40ad3dd162?amp=
Michelle Grattan wonders David Littleproud will handle the latest Barnaby Joyce embarrassment.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-how-does-david-littleproud-handle-the-latest-barnaby-embarrassment-223289
Anthony Albanese faces fresh pressure to rein in property investors’ tax breaks, with the Greens demanding changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount as the price for its support for establishing a shared equity scheme to help low-income earners buy a home. The minor party’s determination to force the issue in parliament this week comes as Jim Chalmers gave his firmest indication yet that changes to negative gearing and the CGT discount were not on the government’s agenda.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/greens-demand-negative-gearing-change-before-backing-homebuyer-scheme-20240211-p5f3zh
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/12/pressure-works-greens-to-stall-labor-housing-bill-in-campaign-to-limit-negative-gearing
Delays for major defence projects have cumulatively blown out to more than 37 years – and Defence chiefs are increasingly hiding how late some multibillion-dollar acquisitions are running because it could “damage” national security. Andrew Tillett reports that, following Defence Minister Richard Marles’ admission that Defence had a “way to go” before achieving excellence, the auditor-general’s scathing findings add to warnings the military is at crisis point amid heightened strategic tensions with China.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/defence-hiding-project-problems-as-delays-blow-out-20240211-p5f3zl
Lidija Ivanovski says that Dutton is learning that one-dimensional political wreckers always have a shelf life. To make the leap to the Lodge, he’ll need to learn how to be nuanced and nimble in his current office.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dutton-s-stage-three-lesson-is-political-wreckers-have-a-limited-shelf-life-20240205-p5f2dm
The Coalition has vowed to roll back employees’ newly created right to disconnect provisions and other elements of Labor’s pro-union workplace regime, drawing battle lines on industrial relations as well as tax at the next federal election. Peter Dutton accused the Albanese government of imposing productivity-sapping changes on the industrial relations system that were “completely and utterly at the behest of” trade unions and the Greens.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dutton-pledges-to-cut-off-employees-right-to-disconnect-20240211-p5f3z6
Mark Kenny writes that an overseas election wouldn’t normally be a factor in our politics but Bruce Wolpe, an expert on US politics, thinks Australian voters fear and loathe Donald Trump in equal measure and could turn away from a candidate seen as too eager to fall into his seemingly narcissistic orbit. He says voters would have to decide if they wanted a prime minister who respectfully asserts Australian strategic interests or surrenders yet more of our foreign policy to Washington.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8516670/mark-kenny-how-trump-could-shape-the-australian-election/?cs=14329
Nick McKenzie and Michael Bachelard tell us that a former ASIO boss has found that Home Affairs failed to conduct adequate due diligence when issuing contracts that saw public money paid to suspected criminals and corrupt officials. Dennis Richardson said that companies linked to suspected arms and drug smuggling, busting sanctions on Iran, corruption and bribery won massive government contracts amid systemic failures to adequately vet the businesses being paid to run the nation’s multi-billion dollar asylum seeker offshore processing regime. No doubt there will be a few Dorothy Dixers in QT this week.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/drugs-guns-corruption-australia-paid-suspect-companies-to-run-offshore-detention-20240208-p5f3bw.html
The failure by senior federal public servants to check the background of companies contracted to run Australia’s asylum seeker offshore program has ramifications far beyond our borders, says the SMH editorial.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/deep-failings-revealed-in-the-operation-of-australia-s-gatekeepers-20240211-p5f3yq.html
Australian farmers should begin asserting their rights rather than being co-opted by the National Party to oppose action on climate change, writes John Longhurst.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/farmers-should-shed-national-party-and-fight-for-their-interests,18319
Australia’s leading business lobby, Business Council of Australia, glosses over its tax avoiding members while cashing taxpayer cheques. Zacharias Szumer delves into the latest donation disclosures from the AEC.
https://michaelwest.com.au/bca-big-business-lobby-aec/
Australia’s outsourced job agencies have been forced to hand back more than $8.5m in government payments in one year – more than double the previous 12 months – after an apparent crackdown on faulty claims. Cait Kelly explains that, under Australia’s employment services system, providers are funded with so-called “outcome payments” for placing their clients into employment or courses and they can claim reimbursements for money spent assisting jobseekers prepare for work.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/12/workforce-australia-job-agencies-forced-to-return-85m-in-taxpayer-funds-after-huge-surge-in-faulty-claims
Soaring interest rates and the tightest rental market in a generation has left record numbers of people under financial stress, explains Shane Wright.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/record-numbers-of-renters-and-buyers-under-financial-stress-20240209-p5f3sm.html
Lobbyists are gaining unfair access to federal ministers through a system that opens the door to corruption, a leading constitutional lawyer says in a warning to parliament to tighten its rules on who gains favoured status when seeking influence. David Crowe writes that the finding comes as one of the top lobbying firms says authorities should reveal the names of hundreds of people who hold sponsored passes that give them unfettered access to the corridors of Parliament House.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/lobbyists-gaining-unfair-access-to-ministers-says-leading-lawyer-20240208-p5f3kb.html
The revamp of North Sydney Olympic Pool is expected to pass $100 million, nearly double the original estimate, as the local council concedes the iconic harbourside site may not reopen until 2025. Megan Gorrey reports that today North Sydney councillors will consider taking out a $20 million loan to help fund the upgrade to the 87-year-old pool, months after defects were uncovered in a steel structure that contractors had to pull down last year.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/north-sydney-pool-rebuild-to-exceed-100m-as-costs-and-delays-blow-out-20240206-p5f2qm.html
Brodie Carmody tells us that a trial of the Distress Brief Support program, which is an extra layer of support, will provide up to three weeks of support to Victorians experiencing psychological distress but who don’t need emergency care.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/extra-layer-of-mental-health-support-to-be-trialled-in-victoria-20240208-p5f3es.html
Farrah Tomazin reports that Donald Trump has suggested that as US president he would encourage Russia to attack American military allies who do not spend enough on defence, in a significant escalation of his rhetoric against the NATO alliance. Dangerous prick!
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/i-would-encourage-them-trump-says-he-would-allow-russia-to-attack-us-allies-20240212-p5f42a.html
The fuse on President Joe Biden’s age and whether he can command a second term has been alight for months. Seventy-six per cent of American voters are concerned about whether Biden is fit mentally or physically for a second term. Eighty-one per cent of independents and over half of Democrats share these concerns, writes Bruce Wolpe who says that if the Democratic Party does turn against Biden, and if the pressure to stand aside gets impossibly intense, we will see many things that will likely happen in the next several weeks.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/what-would-it-take-for-biden-to-step-aside-20240211-p5f3yl.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Jim Pavlidis
Glen Le Lievre
Mark Knight
Badiucao
Vintage Cathy Wilcox
Alan Moir
Peter Broelman
Leak
From the US
c@t: “Taylormade,
You’re an opportunistic hypocrite.”
That might be, but he’s possibly right on this occasion.
For such a sensitive job, Dreyfus surely should have gone with a more demonstrably non-partisan candidate: a higher-profile judge with friends on both sides of politics, a former secretary of the A-G’s Department or Solicitor-General or someone like that. And preferably someone with some runs on the board in terms of dealing with white collar crime.
As far as I can see from an online search, Rothman’s background has nothing in it that makes him an obvious choice for the role: it seems to have been industrial relations and human rights stuff. Add this to whatever are the ALP ties that Shoebridge is banging on about, and he was always potentially going to be a contentious choice.
Shoebridge, of course, is a grandstander from way back. But Dreyfus seems to have walked into a bit of a trap.
Barnaby Joyce has blamed mixing a “prescription drug” with alcohol after he was seen in an embarrassing video lying on his back on a footpath in Canberra mumbling into his phone.
Mr Joyce also revealed the “good Samaritan” who eventually came to his aid was an “Indian taxi driver”. The Nationals frontbencher told Seven’s Sunrise on Monday morning that “obviously I made a big mistake” and “there’s no excuse for it” but “there is a reason”. “It was a very eventful walk home, wasn’t it,” he said. “I should’ve followed … I’m on a prescription drug, and they say certain things may happen to you if you drink, and they were absolutely 100 per cent right. They did.”
The obvious point is that the system put in place by Labor worked as intended.
The other obvious point is that Bandt had better watch his back. Shoebridge is after his job.
Who were Joyce’s fellow drinkers who failed to notice that he was stupified and who let him wonder off alone into the night?
Shoebridge vs Rothman is all about old scores being settled from their days at the NSW Industrial Bar. ..
It was the drugs that dunnit !
(the gaols are full of unfortunate fellow travellers)
AE: “Shoebridge vs Rothman is all about old scores being settled from their days at the NSW Industrial Bar. ..”
That certainly doesn’t surprise me.
If Joyce knew that the medication should not be mixed with alcohol , why go drinking
Barnaby Joyce should not be on any front bench whether its government or opposition , he can not control or take responsibility for his own actions.
fairwork or some other authority should look into the federal national party , ignoring their responsibility of a safe work place
BW: “Who were Joyce’s fellow drinkers who failed to notice that he was stupified and who let him wonder off alone into the night?”
I don’t know anything about BJ’s specific circumstances, but I do know that someone out drinking can seem perfectly fine one minute and then be four sheets to the wind only a few minutes later. (I’m only talking about my friends of course.)
As George Burns once put it: “It only takes one drink to get me drunk, but I can’t remember if it’s the thirteenth or fourteenth.”
Drinking while on some forms of medication would only make this more likely, I would think.
‘meher baba says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 8:08 am
BW: “Who were Joyce’s fellow drinkers who failed to notice that he was stupified and who let him wonder off alone into the night?”
I don’t know anything about BJ’s specific circumstances, but I do know that someone out drinking can seem perfectly fine one minute and then be four sheets to the wind only a few minutes later. (I’m only talking about my friends of course.)
As George Burns once put it: “It only takes one drink to get me drunk, but I can’t remember if it’s the thirteenth or fourteenth.”’
——————-
Yeah, nah. Nice try at the usual deflection. His so-called mates let him down badly. Who were they?
An official inquiry’s confirmation that companies suspected of criminal activity were paid millions to deliver Australia’s offshore detention system has sparked a sharp political attack from the government on opposition leader and former Home Affairs minister Peter Dutton.
Former director general and Defence chief Dennis Richardson’s report, revealed exclusively in this Age/SMH and 60 Minutes on Sunday night, detailed a systematic failure of due diligence that could have prevented taxpayers from paying multiple companies linked to alleged serious crimes through often rushed contracts over a decade up to late 2022.
But responding to the review’s release, Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil used its findings to criticise her predecessor. “This is an extraordinary report that should have been commissioned by the former government during their decade in power,” she said in a statement. “This report exposes Peter Dutton as a hypocrite who was overseeing a system that was funnelling millions to alleged drug smugglers and arms dealers, all while he marketed himself as a tough guy on our borders.” “This is the third report by an unimpeachable expert that shows the extent of Peter Dutton’s failures.” O’Neil said Dutton needed to explain why he allowed the flawed contracting arrangements to continue for years.
Taylormade says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 6:39 am
The Age 12/02
Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus wanted to install a legal figure with Labor links to the second-highest position in the new anti-corruption commission before the committee vetting the appointment baulked and helped kill the proposal.
___________________
That’s massive and unbelievably stupid from Dreyfus considering his past comments.
Well done the Greens.
———————
Dreyfus certainly has problems with rights of Australia citizens. And the right of Australians to know what happens in our government, defence force and taxation office.
We only have to look whistleblowers Julian Assange, David McBride and Richard Boyle and the unwillingness of Dreyfus to intervene.
Of course we know Julian Assange had no fear in exposing bad behaviour in the war in Iraq by US soldiers at Abu Ghraib. But he has also was outspoken about politicians too. Can’t have that.
David McBride provided information to the ABC about war crimes committed by Australian soldiers in Afghanistan.
It seems any criminal act by US or Australian soldiers in war needs suppression.
Richard Boyle exposed the Australian Tax Office using heavy-handed debt collection tactics on certain individuals which may have closed their businesses.
By doing so Boyle is looking at a potential 46 years in prison.
But Dreyfus has refused to stop the ATO prosecution case.
A test for whistleblowers? Against the Labor government ?
Dreyfus, as the countries top lawmaker may have joined Peter Dutton in watering down the National Anti Corruption Commission for secrecy. Any disclosure only in ‘exceptional circumstances’. So an opaque body.
With the latest exposure of Dutton by Minister O’Neill, which was reported many times in the media, where our taxes went with the cruel offshore processing regime, why does Labor agree on many policies with the Liberals?
I was polled for the Teal seat polls; I live in Kooyong. It was an SMS poll.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/02/04/newspoll-52-48-to-labor-open-thread-3/comment-page-11/#comment-4221715
I found some of the tax questions were almost push polling lite (particularly the PRRT question).
“It was a very eventful walk home, wasn’t it?”
In a very eventful life, Barnaby.
Writing off your Commonwealth car in a creek.
Precipitating a costly by-election by failing to renounce your entitlement to dual citizenship.
Getting your mistress pregnant.
“Events, dear boy!”
meher baba,
I did say that it wasn’t a good look. Also,we seem to have ended up with an eminently qualified replacement in Kylie Kilgour.
I still think that Barnaby Joyce is not being properly held to account. Labels are put on medication for a reason. If it says,do not combine this medication with alcohol, it doesn’t mean, drink alcohol and see how you go. It means, put on your big boy pants and don’t drink, or if you are unable to control yourself limit yourself to 1 and at most 2 standard drinks if you are going to drink and take this drug.
That’s massive and unbelievably stupid from Dreyfus considering his past comments.
Well done the Greens.
@ Taylormade
I concur with cat. You really have a nerve to post this. After the Liberals literally mass stacked it with former coalition politicians and former candidates. It was more then just ‘past comments’. It was the grossest misuse of jobs for the boys and non-merit partisan selections this country has ever seen. It’s ironic some Liberals on here calling for Penny Wong to resign when then ministers Michaelia Cash and then later Christian Porter walked away scot free over this.
Blah lost a long post.
Anyway the phoney war has started in Tasmania for the early election the premier says isnt about to happen. The usual ‘you cant put that sign there’ bollocks has started. Tasmanian electoral laws basically mean no signs beside the road. https://archive.md/Tc23M
Also there was this little piece from Richard Herr, a law professor at Utas. I prefer Keven Bonham’s views as they are usually backed by some actual data. I think the 16 March date has already closed off, but this was late last week.
Expert predicts two dates
A Tasmanian political analyst expects an election to be called in the “next week or so” and tips it will be on March 16 or 23. Professor Richard Herr said the two Liberals turned independents Lara Alexander and John Tucker had made it clear they will not sign any new agreement with Premier Jeremy Rockliff. “All the stars have aligned in favour of the Premier calling an election,” he said. “I expect he will do that in the next week or so and it will be before Easter. “It will be difficult for either side to back down now. “He (Premier) did trust them but he believes they have broken that trust and have been willing participants in mbarrassing the government.”Prof Herr said the Premier was correct to remind them in his latest ultimatum that they were elected as Liberal MPs not independents. He predicts there will be a minority government after the next state election. “The polls show that no major party has a bandwagon of support and with a bigger parliament and lower quotas needed, everybody will be fancying their chances,” Prof Herr said.
So as it stands the Coalition is getting little traction on winning back the Teal seats.
It seems they are all in on the outer suburban and regional strategy. To win through social conservatism, anti-diversity and white grievance politics. Welcome to the Australian Trump era.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was rushed to the hospital Sunday for symptoms of a bladder issue, less than a month his previous secret stay at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center sparked controversy.
Austin, 70, was taken back to Walter Reed by his security detail at 2:20 p.m. Sunday, according to Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary. Unlike his previous hospitalization that began Jan. 1, Austin notified the White House, Congress and Pentagon officials, Ryder said in a statement.
Austin has not transferred his authority to Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks, but she is prepared to take on those responsibilities, Ryder said. Austin has secret communications systems necessary to perform his duties.
Myanmar on Saturday introduced compulsory military service for all males aged 18 to 35 and females 18 to 27. Looks like the civil war is not going too well for them.
”The fuse on President Joe Biden’s age and whether he can command a second term has been alight for months. Seventy-six per cent of American voters are concerned about whether Biden is fit mentally or physically for a second term.”
If the alternative was Donald Trump it wouldn’t matter if Biden were 120 years old and comatose. Trump is utterly unacceptable. I’m amazed that nearly half of Americans don’t think so. He might hate who they hate, but I’m surprised there are so many haters.
If Joyce was to be vetted for Top Secret security level, there is no way he would get it, given his demonstrated levels and frequency of insobriety. Bad players always seek out and use weaknesses.
BK,
Gina is probably well aware of that. 😉
Village idiot Taylomade obviously doesn’t want to talk about the appointment of liberal staffer Alana Matheson to the Fair Work Australia bench for 26 years at 10 $ !!!!!
BW: “Yeah, nah. Nice try at the usual deflection. His so-called mates let him down badly. Who were they?”
FFS, it wasn’t any sort of an attempt at deflection, it was just a lighthearted observation about the behaviour of drunk people. The obsessive partisanship of you and some other posters on here is pathological.
BTW, Boerwar. I might be a swinging voter, but I voted for Labor in 2013. Can you please remind me how you voted in that election and how you attempted to persuade others to vote? Being the intensely loyal partisan that you are.
Victor scholar: “Village idiot Taylomade obviously doesn’t want to talk about the appointment of liberal staffer Alana Matheson to the Fair Work Australia bench for 26 years at 10 $ !!!!!”
He probably also doesn’t want to talk about the umpteen dozen Labor staffers who have been appointed to plum jobs over the years.
The point here is not about jobs for the boys (and, increasingly, the girls as well): both sides of politics have indulged in that exercise for ever and a day. The process went wholesale in an unprecedented way in relation to the AAT appointments under the previous government, but they were following a well-worn path.
The issue at stake here is that, when it comes to appointing someone to run an anti-corruption commission, the good old Caesar’s wife principle comes into play.
#weatheronPB
Blue sky leaks through trees.
Shrinking puddles see the sun.
Quiet worlds at peace.
The key to a useful NACC is speedy turnaround.
The vetting of the present commissioner and Justice Rothman must have been interesting on that issue.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. The tax changes are bedded down so housing affordability remains THE issue now. Not easy to fix quickly, and the Greens are attacking Labor nmore than the LNP are.
This ABC article is oddly certain that the Hunter Frigate program will survive with at least six built, yet quotes no government source. I can find no matching story elsewhere.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-12/controversial-british-hunter-class-warship-program-survives/103454004
The recent ANAO report into Defence major projects can be accessed here. Not pretty.
https://www.anao.gov.au/work/major-projects-report/2022-23-major-projects-report
Who would want to have a drink with Barnaby?
Nobody – I reckon he drinks alone…
Dreyfuss trying to appoint a Labor connected lawyer to the NACC is an obviously conflicted move that created unnecessary negative publicity for the government.
Those pointing at similar incidents the previous government need to be reminded of the adage “two wrongs don’t make a right”. It looks bad to anyone outside the system.
Labor will never be able to look better than the LNP on integrity grounds if it pulls the same tricks while in office.
Alpha Zero says:
“Who would want to have a drink with Barnaby?”
Slim Dusty would think twice about it.
The ALP aligned thing with Justice Rothman is being overplayed.
His Honour is a very longstanding Supreme Court judge whose politics have never interfered with his work.
Did Tony Abbott or Scott Morrison ever make a non-political appointment?