The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year shows no change to the status quo after the tax cuts backflip or anything else to have happened over the holiday period, with Labor retaining its 52-48 two-party lead from the mid-December poll. Only minor changes are recorded on the primary vote, with Labor up a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 36%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation steady on 7%.
Questions on the tax cuts found 62% believed the government had done the right thing, but oddly only 38% felt they would be better off. Preferred prime minister is likewise unchanged at 46-35 in favour of Anthony Albanese, while at this stage we only have net results on the two leaders’ ratings: Albanese down a point to minus nine, Peter Dutton down four to minus 13. A number of gaps here should be filled when The Australian publishes full results tables.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1245.
UPDATE: Albanese is steady on 42% approval and up one on disapproval to 51%, while Dutton is down two to 37% and up two to 50%. The 38% better off figure turns out to contrast with only 18% for worse off, with 37% opting for about the same and 7% uncommitted. The 62% support rating compared with 29% opposed and 9% uncommitted. Both questions emphasised that the changes would be to the advantage of lower and middle income earners.
Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan Tehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan?
This bloke is not going to set the Yarra on fire any time soon.
https://dantehan.com.au/2023/08/03/in-the-house-renewable-energy/
Asha:
I was just thinking the same thing!
Irene
Please contact YOUR local cinema and request for them to run The TRUST FALL: Julian Assange.
“I fought for liberty and was deprived of all liberty. I fought for freedom of speech and was deprived of all speech. I fought for the truth and became the subject of a thousand lies”.
– Julian Assange
Oh I see. It is a sci-fi movie.
It’s not that hard to be a Labor supporter.
As one of the two parties of government the decision for me is clear cut.
I have seen the way every Liberal government I have lived through since Menzies has treated anyone who is suffering for whatever reason – unemployment, disability, racism, weather related disasters or just bad luck.
They go out of their way to make things…harder.
They do not represent the people, just their corporate donors. Greed is good don’t you know.
So after their latest 9 years at the helm it is not difficult to appear humane and competent by contrast.
From that point of view Albo is just achieving par.
There is so much more to repair and achieve and I hope Labor is up to it.
They need to gain at least a second term when the real heavy lifting can be done.
This will not be easy. Fighting the arse gravy that exudes from our main stream media will be of utmost importance.
Albo has done well in this regard but probably needs a bit more of the Dan Andrews about him to unblock that drain.
On less soap boxxy subjects…
Doc Baldock was quite a handy player, certainly one of the best I have seen.
As I said when AUKUS was announced, Australia will not have Nuclear boats – just another of Morrisons boondoggles.
Listening to a Dan Tehan speech is what doctors recommend for insomniacs who don’t respond to the normal Simon Birmingham speech treatment. I recommend a Dan and Simon double ticket. Wouldn’t need any policies then as everyone listening will sleep through that part anyway.
I just got polled by UComms in a poll on Kooyong – Wanting to know if I would vote Ryan or Liberal.
Plus additional questions –
1) Stage 3 tax changes
2) Cost of living
3) NACC public hearings
4) Liberal party gender quotas
5) Petroleum Resources Rent Tax changes,
and 6) Political truth in Advertising.
Question is who is hiring UComms to do this polling. As I don’t think the Liberals would be using UComms it is either going to be the Ryan camp (or those attached like Climate 200) or Labor (or the ACTU) want to know how the Teal seats are reacting to things.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/too-many-local-councillors-are-too-old-says-state-s-planning-boss-20240205-p5f2gl.html
So did Lars end up taking his own advice that he initially suggested for me- that I should pull out because they are pissing on my swag?
Lars appears to be angry at everyone equally today on Pb. I’d hoped he would have more backbone to handle his pb nemeses. Perhaps he decided to move me on in favour of Entropy who has been shamelessly throwing himself Infront of Lars of late in the hope LVT notices him. All those out of context poetic extracts he has been adding to his posts of late really demonstrate his ESL- driven desperation to assert some kind of sophisticated command of his adopted tongue. Maybe Lars will try and make him his special project?
But my god!, You have to give it to LVT for his dramatic upping of the ante with the thinly veiled threat of doxing by the reposting of an electricity bill yabba had crazily uploaded to PB complete with a crude thin whiting out of Yabba’s full name and address.
I’m sorry yabba- I know you called Lars the fucking idiot for delighting us all with that image but mate in reality it was you acting like one by freely giving out your highly sensitive personal particulars to all and sundry lol.
P1-Please never, ever again accuse me of doxing you on PB. Today’s apparently waived through example of a would-be doxing has dramatically raised the bar in comparison to what you alleged of me!
If Lars really is angry I suspect it’s because he knows deep down that Andy E beat him in straight sets. Compounding it for Lars would be his distain that it came from a man of similar provenance and societal standing-an accomplished Sydney Barrister, but a rank-and-file Labor one at that and who stands for the exact opposite of his every ideological belief. For Lars this is tantamount to high treason for such a thing to exist
Catprog says:
Monday, February 5, 2024 at 7:02 pm
>Total 22%. straight away.
What percentage would be achived if the goverment banned all fossil fuel transport tomorow?
…..’
———————
Goodness me. I have identified three areas where all economic activity could cease tomorrow without any great loss of individual quality of life: air travel, tourism and beef and dairy. My suggestions would have additional benefits: tourism accommodation could instantly be repurposed to knock rents down and to eliminate homelessness. The huge negative biodiversity impacts of tourism, beef and dairy would cease.
Sure, there would be a disruption but nothing like the disruption caused by global warming.
The Government should, of course, continue to purse 43/30 on the road to zero net 50 and it should continue to advise countries like China to achieve the same outcomes. (Not that China would listen!). In this respect that the Government is adopting vehicle emissions standards. (There were any amount of neggers prior to this announcement negging Labor for NOT introducing the standards. Or negging Labor for the standards not being good enough. Now that they have arrived… il silencio!)
And now you come along with a suggestion to instantly destroy the whole economy!
“The ‘rally against reckless renewables’ will happen outside parliament in Canberra tomorrow.”
Ex-TC Kirrily says “hi”.
Pueo
It would nice to think that there will be a huge drenching pissing down event tomorrow. So far it is all a gentle drizzle.
The problem for the Libs is that their Leadership is an ex-Copper from Brisbane whose power base is mainly Nationals from the regions and an ex-Goth woman from a rural seat in NSW who struggles to win every pre-selection without Party intervention.
To put it politely, they are not well known in the homes they need to influence in the Metropolitan Suburbs of the main cities.
If they were to change Leader then it would be a poison chalice for whomever took it on. So, my guess is Sussan Ley with someone like Jason Wood in LaTrobe (another ex-copper) to take the fall.
Hastie is from WA and probably not ready yet, Dan Tehan is from a country seat based on Warrnambool, Fletcher seems underwhelming and outsmarted by Tony Burke all the time as Opposition Leader of the House. Angus Taylor is from a rural seat and is a poor performer.
There is talk of Mike Baird arriving in his chariot as replacement for Morrison. But, I’m not a great believer in Messiahs arriving to fix structural, policy and people problems by simply turning up.
My guess is they will muddle on with the current arrangement in hope that something will turn up to turn their fortune.
C@t -use the scroll bar for the nonsense. Poor granny and Asha were dealing with one on Saturday night and I think you were copping it last Tuesday. Do the scroll bar thing & don’t respond.
More importantly, politics…
Your assessment of where things are at in early Feb 2024, based on the last couple of polls.
1. Are things on the up for Labor
2. Has Albo got his mojo back
3. Is Albo under any threat internally, or is this nonsense
4. Is Dutton under any threat internally.
5. Do you think an election later this year is a live option, or will Albo go full term (ie May 2025).
Liberal leadership options?
The bottomless barrel.
Boerwar @ #468 Monday, February 5th, 2024 – 6:41 pm
It’s 100% fossil fuels. Both necessary and sufficient.
Pretending otherwise – which is something you do here every single day – is pure and simple denial.
leftieBrawler @ #508 Monday, February 5th, 2024 – 7:12 pm
Ummmm … what? …
Parking for six hours on a Paris street in an SUV or large car will cost €225 under a new system endorsed by the city’s voters last night.
In a city referendum, 55 per cent of residents who voted backed the move by Anne Hidalgo, the Socialist mayor, to punish the large 4x4s and other private vehicles that are deemed to be the worst offenders for polluting and crowding the compact French capital.
Only six per cent of 1.3 million potential voters, however, turned out for the Sunday poll on whether to triple the parking charge for heavier vehicles, many of which enter the city from the surrounding greater Paris area.
Trouble in Moore in WA with Goodenough threatening to run as independent, The West Australian says.
https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/moore-mp-ian-goodenough-planning-to-run-as-an-independent-if-dumped-by-liberals-with-fears-he-may-help-labor-c-13474844?utm_content=buffer065ce&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=the-west-news&fbclid=IwAR0P7WHJT2Ejx6snmYw5wF5b4WYp97LrU281AKlN6XgCNysJwOlA-7ufBak
Not paywalled (yet)
They’re a happy team in WA
Labor should double its investment in tourism and give away free airplane tickets to anywhere at all.
Just while we all wait for Labor’s 43/30 and 100/50 to kick in.
Why not?
Boerwar @ #513 Monday, February 5th, 2024 – 7:19 pm
Must be time for a woman. Except they are few and far between.
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Monday, February 5, 2024 at 7:22 pm
Parking for six hours on a Paris street in an SUV or large car will cost €225 under a new system endorsed by the city’s voters last night.
In a city referendum, 55 per cent of residents who voted backed the move by Anne Hidalgo, the Socialist mayor, to punish the large 4x4s and other private vehicles that are deemed to be the worst offenders for polluting and crowding the compact French capital.
Only six per cent of 1.3 million potential voters, however, turned out for the Sunday poll on whether to triple the parking charge for heavier vehicles, many of which enter the city from the surrounding greater Paris area.’
———–
A standard method of parking is to gently ram the cars in front and behind until you have enough space. The same if you get parked in. While everyone had small light cars that could be shunted with a minimum of mutual damage it was sort of wearable. C’est la vie. You can hear people parking and unparking with minor metal grinding noises. I imagine that the SUVs would be upsetting that apple cart.
I agree Itza. I think C@t let herself down a bit with a comment like that.
BW:
The end of tourism worldwide (assuming such a thing would even be possible) would absolutely cripple the economies of hundreds of countries as well as that of many regions of Australia, and leave hundreds of millions of people destitute.
Sure, there’s potentially an argument to be made that that’s the price we may have to pay to save the planet, and it’s absolutely true that the repercussions of our collective failure to deal with climate change are probably going to be even worse, but to suggest it wouldn’t result in “any great loss of individual quality of life” is insane. Do you have any idea how many people rely on the tourism industry to pay the rent and put food on the table? It’s not about the tourists, it’s about the people who make a living from the tourists.
I dare you to travel to, say, Far North Queensland and ask people what they think of your proposition.
Confessions
McKenzie and Cash meet Thelma and Louise?
AFL loses me for three main reasons:
1) The abysmal technical quality. Players with the easiest goal in any sport on earth, and zero pressure on their kick, and miss half the time, and the semi-regular, embarrassingly poor misses from 5 meters out.
2) The racism. Impossible to deny, the top to bottom racism from the spectators to the commentators/pundits, club leadership.
3) Thugs like Barry Hall not only being tolerated, but being celebrated for their regular assaults on opponents. With nothing done about it on the pitch and instead of him being deregistered and banned for life after the Brett Staker assault, he got a proverbial slap on the wrist and is considered a “legend” of the sport and is a Hall of Famer.
”Parking for six hours on a Paris street in an SUV or large car will cost €225 under a new system endorsed by the city’s voters last night.”
We should use the fourth power rule in calculating vehicular taxes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_power_law
So a 3 tonne SUV pays 16 times more than a 1.5 tonne family sedan.
Steve:
I like that idea. We could call it the tiny penis tax.
Boerwar:
Well, McKenzie is a Nat so doesn’t count.
Cash would have to find a lower house seat in WA and I can’t see that happening. She has that classic overbearing and ideological Senate personality that is hard to warm to.
‘Asha says:
Monday, February 5, 2024 at 7:29 pm
BW:
The end of tourism worldwide (assuming such a thing would even be possible) would absolutely cripple the economies of hundreds of countries as well as that of many regions of Australia, and leave hundreds of millions of people destitute.
Sure, there’s potentially an argument to be made that that’s the price we may have to pay to save the planet, but to suggest it wouldn’t result in “any great loss of individual quality of life” is insane. Do you have any idea how many people rely on the tourism industry to pay the rent and put food on the table?
I dare you to travel to, say, Far North Queensland and ask people what they think of your proposition.’
—————————————-
Oh, I know that no-one in the tourism industry would have the faintest interest in it. We know that from Bludger. They would all rather wait until countries like china and india go to renewables – sometime in the 2060s. You know it makes sense.
In general the global tourism industry has had its head in the sand about climate change and has been a real chain dragger on climate action. No-one was ever allowed to make a link between global warming and the Reef bleaching. Bad for trade. They are part of moral suasion problem. Sure they carry on about ecotourism but ecotourism is greenwashing. I can book you into an ecotourist resort that will only set you back $100,000 per night. The food is organic and you can snorkle. And so on and so forth.
Your arguments come down to it would be bad for some economies and it would impoverish people.
Here is the thing. Tourism is a terribly destructive way of transferring wealth from wealthy people (which most tourists are) to poor people which most people working in the world’s tourism industries are. (Check the real take home wages of deckies on all those luxury cruises, for example).
If your argument is that there should be wealth transfer then work out how to transfer the wealth without putting tourism in the middle.
It would, of course, have added biodiversity benefits. And the tourism accommodation can be used to fix the imbalance between housing demand and supply while safely housing the homeless.
The bottom line is that tourism is a matter of the world’s wealthy people indulging themselves at the expense of the homeless, biodiversity and the world’s poor. Not forgetting the 8% that gets emitted every year and which has a hang time in the atmosphere of 300 years.
“Must be time for a woman. Except they are few and far between.”
There’s millions of them.
It’s just the conservatives have a really hard time preselecting many.
Andrew Hastie wouldn’t be tolerated as leader because he hasn’t been a hook line & sinker support of a certain person in the middle of a defamation trial regarding incidents in a war Hastie also participated in (the war, not the war crimes).
Confessions
Please. Bear with me. I am doing my best here.
How about Cash and Ley?
The Mouth Almighty and the Fearless Flounce?
‘bob says:
Monday, February 5, 2024 at 7:40 pm
Andrew Hastie wouldn’t be tolerated as leader because he hasn’t been a hook line & sinker support of a certain person in the middle of a defamation trial regarding incidents in a war Hastie also participated in.’
——————
and which shows he has integrity. An admirable trait, IMO.
Don’t discount a Mike Baird miracle if indeed he does agree to the nomination. You’d expect basically every teal to fall in one go if he gets a reasonable run up to an election as OL.
Magic Mike, the witty and urbane waspy pin up boy of relaxed and comfortable Australia could prove a very real threat to Labor- Women want to have him and men want to be him.
And from a strategic standpoint the adopted Northern beaches boy could even rattle the assumed most secure of the teals- the OG Zali
“and which shows he has integrity. An admirable trait, IMO.”
I wonder if he, too, wore the Crusader’s Cross while in Afghanistan.
Big Spender Boerwar:
You’re being ripped off, I’m afraid. I can recommend you some good guesthouses that go for less than $20 a night.
Asha @ #523 Monday, February 5th, 2024 – 7:29 pm
I can’t believe some here haven’t figured this out yet. Boerwar is not at all interested in tourism one way or another. It is just his latest way of pretending that there is no solution to the problem except one that is horrendously complex, horrendously expensive, and involves so much personal sacrifice that no-one will support it. All of which is complete nonsense, of course.
He is, in fact, desperate to keep attention away from the most obvious solution – one that is simple, cheap, fast, effective and which we could start implementing right now – i.e. stop subsidizing fossil fuels, put a price on carbon, stop burning coal for electricity as fast as possible, phase out other fossil fuels as soon as we can reasonably do so, and stop all new fossil fuel developments (since we don’t actually need any – we already have enough available to kill the planet).
He doesn’t actually want any action at all against his beloved fossil fuels. He wants to burn fossil fuels in is SUV and nothing on earth – including the destruction of if – is going to impinge on his god-given right to do so.
Boerwar:
Perhaps you were right the first time with Thelma and Louise!
‘Rewi says:
Monday, February 5, 2024 at 7:43 pm
“and which shows he has integrity. An admirable trait, IMO.”
I wonder if he, too, wore the Crusader’s Cross while in Afghanistan.’
—————————
Mentally he may have. There is no record of him doing so physically. His role in the fingers cutting off episode in Afghanistan was exemplary, IMO.
Hastie has consistently shown that he has integrity.
‘Asha says:
Monday, February 5, 2024 at 7:44 pm
Big Spender Boerwar:
I can book you into an ecotourist resort that will only set you back $100,000 per night. The food is organic and you can snorkle. And so on and so forth.
You’re being ripped off, I’m afraid. I can recommend you some good guesthouses that go for less than $20 a night.’
—————–
The essentials of my position stand.
Boerwar
“ We have Shotgun McKenzie claiming that this is going to cost $40,000 EXTRA to buy a ute!!!!!!!!”
Really, someone in authority should call bullshit, using the exact word, and ask Ms McKenzie to show her calculations or be exposed as a liar.”
As usual, Bomb-thrower McKenzie is speaking with forked tongue.
Firstly, the proposed mechanism simply doesn’t work at the level of individual vehicles. If a company brings in a lot of large polluting vehicles, say Ford F150s or Dodge Rams, they will get levied on their fleet average.
So Ford would want to bring in more EVs like Mustang Mach Es or bring the F150 Lightning to Australia, which is precisely the change the policy is designed to achieve. And they will need to price them competitively, because they would need to sell as many of them as the F150s to meet their fleet average target. Or they might horse trade with other makers to buy credits e.g. Tesla.
Secondly, even if the premise of McKenzie’s claim were true (again its not) the amount per vehicle for the worst polluters would be significant, but not as bad as she claimed.
Take a huge emitter – Ford F150 with big engine option at 290 gCo2/km – it exceeds the planned limit under Option C (the most severe option examined) of 199 gCO2/km from 2025 by 91g. At the highest penalty rate of $200/g in excess that would cost $18,200 per Ford F150 (large engine version). In reality, under the government’s proposed Option B, with penalty rate of $100/g in excess, the penalty would be $9100 per excess Ford F150, assuming there were no other more efficient vehicles in the fleet Ford sold here. In reality, Ford already has a partnership in USA with Tesla, whom they would surely buy credits from. End result, Teslas might get $5k cheaper.
So McKenzie is talking BS, with figures made up out of nothing.
Anybody spending $1000+ a night on, well, anything, really, is so absurdly rich that their experiences have zero relation to that of the average person. They are a total outlier.
Most tourists just want to spend a few weeks eating cheap food and sitting by the beach.
‘Socrates says:
Monday, February 5, 2024 at 7:54 pm
Boerwar
“ We have Shotgun McKenzie claiming that this is going to cost $40,000 EXTRA to buy a ute!!!!!!!!”
Really, someone in authority should call bullshit, using the exact word, and ask Ms McKenzie to show her calculations or be exposed as a liar.”
As usual, Bomb-thrower McKenzie is speaking with forked tongue.
Firstly, the proposed mechanism simply doesn’t work at the level of individual vehicles. If a company brings in a lot of large polluting vehicles, say Ford F150s or Dodge Rams, they will get levied on their fleet average.
So Ford would want to bring in more EVs like Mustang Mach Es or bring the F150 Lightning to Australia, which is precisely the change the policy is designed to achieve. And they will need to price them competitively, because they would need to sell as many of them as the F150s to meet their fleet average target. Or they might horse trade with other makers to buy credits e.g. Tesla.
Secondly, even if the premise of McKenzie’s claim were true (again its not) the amount per vehicle for the worst polluters would be significant, but not as bad as she claimed.
Take a huge emitter – Ford F150 with big engine option at 290 gCo2/km – it exceeds the planned limit under Option C (the most severe option examined) of 199 gCO2/km by 91g. At the highest penalty rate of $200/g in excess that would cost $18,200 per Ford F150 (large engine version). In reality, under the government’s proposed Option B, with penalty rate of $100/g in excess, the penalty would be $9100 per excess Ford F150, assuming there were no other more efficient vehicles in the fleet Ford sold here. In reality, Ford already has a partnership in USA with Tesla, whom they would surely buy credits from. End result, Teslas might get $5k cheaper.
So McKenzie is talking BS, with figures made up out of nothing’
———————–
Thanks, Soc. Good explanation, IMO.
Shotgun McKenzie blaffing of the top of her head on Sky to a nincompoop Murdoch pupster was never going to seriously rattle any rational cage.
Irene
Please contact YOUR local cinema and request for them to run The TRUST FALL: Julian Assange – Documentary.
I will NOT be doing that.
I would rather stick pins in my eyes than watch some panegyric bullshit about a pro-Putin, pro-Trump traitor.
https://nos.nl/l/2507583
(Meanwhile apparently the Aus fed gov is making claims accessible to those Australians impacted by Hamas’ Oct …)
With assistance Transjordan and holy land’s occupying power’s acquiescence, Operation Manna 1944, seems to have had a rerun through aerial supply of assistance (if the tiny RNLAF, using American build transport aircraft, could arrange this …) in Palestine 2024 …
‘Asha says:
Monday, February 5, 2024 at 7:56 pm
Anybody spending $1000+ a night on, well, anything, really, is so absurdly rich that their experiences have zero connection to that of the average person. They are a total outlier.
Most tourists just want spend a few weeks eating cheap food and sitting by the beach.’
———————————
You don’t just get to emit 8% of the world’s emissions by spending nothing.You can play dodgem cars as much a you like. On a global basis tourism is carried out by the world’s wealthier people. Global tourism is around $7-$8 trillion a year. That is NOT being spent by the world’s poor people.
Media Watch is doing Lattouf tonight.
I don’t watch 7.30 to watch the treasurer effortlessly bat away Sarah Ferguson continual attempts at gotchas. That was the most ignorant uninformed interview I have seen for a long while.
Michaelia Cash probably missed out on her chance of entering the lower house this next election, she could have put her hand up to replace the retiring Nola Marino in Forrest, which is a pretty safe Liberal seat. But it seems that’s going to former Senator Ben Small.
Confessions @ #507 Monday, February 5th, 2024 – 7:12 pm
That’s an interesting concept. A group of people with special interests and low level input into policy directly affecting them with an agency to give *voice* to their issues.