The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year shows no change to the status quo after the tax cuts backflip or anything else to have happened over the holiday period, with Labor retaining its 52-48 two-party lead from the mid-December poll. Only minor changes are recorded on the primary vote, with Labor up a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 36%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation steady on 7%.
Questions on the tax cuts found 62% believed the government had done the right thing, but oddly only 38% felt they would be better off. Preferred prime minister is likewise unchanged at 46-35 in favour of Anthony Albanese, while at this stage we only have net results on the two leaders’ ratings: Albanese down a point to minus nine, Peter Dutton down four to minus 13. A number of gaps here should be filled when The Australian publishes full results tables.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1245.
UPDATE: Albanese is steady on 42% approval and up one on disapproval to 51%, while Dutton is down two to 37% and up two to 50%. The 38% better off figure turns out to contrast with only 18% for worse off, with 37% opting for about the same and 7% uncommitted. The 62% support rating compared with 29% opposed and 9% uncommitted. Both questions emphasised that the changes would be to the advantage of lower and middle income earners.
So apparently by 2035 100% of new cars sold in Australia will be EV’s. That’s pretty cool.
Boerwar @ #511 Monday, February 5th, 2024 – 7:15 pm
10 – 45 mm predicted for Canberra. Where’s Fred when you don’t need him.
7.30 detailing the consequences of what is going on in the car space as Socrates has done would be a lot more useful than 10 minutes of Sarah Ferguson attempting gotchas
A summary of what Walker argued in the Federal court today:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/05/ben-roberts-smith-appeal-defamation-trial-evidence-was-speculative-and-contradictory-court-hears
He didn’t start all that well when Katzmann, J questioned why the court had spent “the best part of three-quarters of an hour being lectured” about legal principles of which they were aware.
The crux of the case, according to Walker, is the difference between lawful and unlawful killings in war. I think he’s right and from what I saw of the trial, I think I know which witnesses most impressed, and they weren’t Roberts-Smith’s – early days.
‘Mavis says:
Monday, February 5, 2024 at 8:14 pm
A summary of what Walker argued in the Federal court today:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/05/ben-roberts-smith-appeal-defamation-trial-evidence-was-speculative-and-contradictory-court-hears
He didn’t start all that well when Katzmann, J questioned why the court had spent “the best part of three-quarters of an hour being lectured” about legal principles of which they were aware.
The crux of the case, according to Walker, is the difference between lawful and unlawful killings in war. I think he’s right and from what I saw of the trial, I think I know which witnesses most impressed, and they weren’t Roberts-Smith’s – early days.’
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It already has the aroma of good money after bad.
leftieBrawler @ #534 Monday, February 5th, 2024 – 7:42 pm
They voted for independents on policy. Dimples don’t change policy. Cart and horse is their problem. Well, actually, they’re all horse and no cart.
Itza:
I’m broadly supportive of mechanisms to give voice to those who are absent from the decision making in policy matters. As that article says, the young are largely absent from housing decisions because we have ageing councillors (councils being the local authorities who generally make local planning decisions).
It’s really good news, and the climate deniers chucking a tantrum over this can all get stuffed.
If Ben Roberts hadn’t stated the defamation trial there would be no ruling that there was unlawfull killing. He really has got himself in a pickle.
When I sat for the Leaving, the English paper had a question on rationalising proverbs.
Look before you leap.
He who hesitates is lost.
Travel broadens the mind.
A returned traveller is a bore.
‘frednk says:
Monday, February 5, 2024 at 8:21 pm
If Ben Roberts hadn’t stated the defamation trial there would be no ruling that there was unlawfull killing. He really has got himself in a pickle.’
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Perhaps there is a reason why he never got beyond corporal?
A moderate Liberal that is actually allowed to be a moderate and advocate moderate policies – whether that is wonder boy Baird or somebody else – could potentially do well in wresting seats back from the Teals, but no Liberal leader is going to have that freedom while the loony right are as dominant as they currently are.
Look at John Pesutto in Victoria for an example for how things would most likely actually go for this hypothetical moderate saviour. Or a certain Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who reigned at a time when the moderates had a lot more pull than they do these days and still found himself both a slave to the right and continually undermined by them.
I don’t think a faux-moderate is going to cut it with Teal voters. They were burned badly during the Turnbull years, and – one would hope – have learned a valuable lesson about so-called moderate Liberals.
To clarify more on why I think it would be a Taylor-Fletcher-Hastie-(Tehan?) contest, if Dutton goes for one reason or another (say, possibly losing his seat in Dickson at the 2025 election), then it’s those that would remain as the most likely to be in the contest to take over leadership.
Taylor would run on being one of the most senior of the remaining Liberal team and have the advantages of being a white man and also his seat of Hume is close to Canberra.
Fletcher would run on being the most senior remaining “Moderate” and argue something along the lines of “Frydenburg’s not here anymore, so vote for me as his successor.”
Hastie would run on the fact that he’s from a Frontier state where the Liberals have historically been strong, and that other than Dutton, there doesn’t seem to be much high profile senior Liberals from Queensland, so he’d ask them to turn to him for leadership as a right wing conservative warrior.
Dan Tehan meanwhile has always come across as a bit dim and doesn’t have much in the way of leadership skills from what I know of him, but being a high profile long term member of one of the few remaining safe seats in Victoria would go to his advantage.
Although thinking about it further, maybe Sussan Ley could be about as likely as Tehan to run, although she would have to fight against being likened to Liz Truss, who she greatly resembles in both appearance and political style.
Confessions @ #557 Monday, February 5th, 2024 – 8:19 pm
I’m hugely supportive, and was pointing the finger at the Coalition’s bastardry over the Voice Referendum
Itza:
LMAO, it’s – um – it’s hard to argue with that one!
Kirsdarke:
I agree with that assessment.
leftieBrawlersays:
Monday, February 5, 2024 at 7:12 pm
So did Lars end up taking his own advice that he initially suggested for me- that I should pull out because they are pissing on my swag?
Lars appears to be angry at everyone equally today on Pb. I’d hoped he would have more backbone to handle his pb nemeses. Perhaps he decided to move me on in favour of Entropy who has been shamelessly throwing himself Infront of Lars of late in the hope LVT notices him. All those out of context poetic extracts he has been adding to his posts of late really demonstrate his ESL- driven desperation to assert some kind of sophisticated command of his adopted tongue.
====================================================
I apologise for suggesting you now speak a language that is different to one you currently speak. From your recent post it has become obvious to me you have always spoken “shit”.
Quote: “People are probably not happy with their life if they’re busy discussing yours”
Asha says:
I don’t think a faux-moderate is going to cut it with Teal voters. They were burned badly during the Turnbull years, and – one would hope – have learned a valuable lesson about so-called moderate Liberals.
_____________________
It will be interesting to see whether the Liberal branches in the Teal seats, the old heartland of the Liberal party, begin to whither away. Which seems likely, especially if the Teals hold the seats for long enough.
Boerwar:
Monday, February 5, 2024 at 8:16 pm
Quite possibly, but Walker can’t be underestimated; for instance, he’s appeared in the High Court more than any other practising barrister – 35 times, including successfully for Pell. But unlike Pell’s appeal, this is a civil matter, the burden of proof far easier to
reach – more probable than not.
Frednk
Thanks re:EV comments.
I sometimes wonder how many journalists actually read the full detail of documents released by government. The car emission policy had some glossy brochures to read (5-6 pages). But there was also an 86 page report with appendices including results of modelling of impacts. Did anyone in the 7:30 Report team even read it? I suspect not.
‘Mavis says:
Monday, February 5, 2024 at 8:33 pm
Boerwar:
Monday, February 5, 2024 at 8:16 pm
Quite possibly, but Walker can’t be underestimated; for instance, he’s appeared in the High Court more than any other practising barrister – 35 times, including successfully for Pell. But unlike Pell’s appeal, this is a civil matter, the burden of proof far easier to
reach – more probable than not.’
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Mavis, happy to accept your points.
I watched a little of the Federal Court, at the stage when Walker was speaking to plausibility of evidence, and from what I could glean, was putting the proposition that questionably plausible evidence detracted from the weight of evidence in pursuit of the truth, vs confection. Or something like that.
It reminded me of the Pell trials, where the plausibility of the victim’s statement about when and where the offence occurred (after service, fully robed, door ajar) was seriously questioned, with the implication he was making it up. I reckon if you were making it up, you’d make up the most plausible scenario you could think of, and following on, lack of plausibility from a witness can also suggest the opposite of fabrication. I know if I was trying to stitch someone up, I’d put some effort into sounding plausible.
Oh, the new Nemesis is out already! Thought it didn’t start for another 15 mins.
😳
Ok, I thought you’d gone all Boomer on me!
How did Walker go in the Federal Court today?….At one stage, Katzmann questioned why the court had spent “the best part of three-quarters of an hour being lectured” about legal principles of which they were aware.
Walker playing one for Kerry Stokes telling Granny how to suck eggs….. a bit like Trumps lawyers..
Confessions @ #574 Monday, February 5th, 2024 – 8:45 pm
Sorry, I thought the asterisks around Voice were clue enough, but note to self: avoid oblique.
On the impact of the Car Emission standards, it is also worth pointing out that, assuming all manufacturers comply with it, it is revenue neutral. So overall cars do NOT get dearer. Any that do increase in price will be matched by price decreases on other models, mainly the cheaper to run ones with low emissions and better fuel economy.
This isn’t a hypothetical. We don’t have to guess. We can check the evidence from other countries (almost all of them in the OECD) that have already done it.
The proposed Car Efficiency Standard is a mild version of what the EU and USA already run. Have cars gotten dearer there? No. Have EVs gotten more numerous and cheaper? Yes.
Consider a real world example. Last year Xanthippe and I bought a Nissan Leaf EV.
Nissan Leaf in Australia (40kWhr). $52,000 on road
Nissan Leaf in England (40kWhr). $44,000 on road, CO2 limit
Nissan Leaf in Norway (40kWhr). $36,000 on road, Co2 limit, susbidy from tax on high emitting cars
So you find out what car companies can really afford to sell cars for.
PS Our Leaf is the only car we have ever bought for over $50k. We love it, but a lot of families cannot afford to spend that much. Imagine how many families would like to buy an EV under $40K and end paying fuel bills?
Not that I understand Walkers proposition , however to me he seeded to argue there is no way to find guilt unless the evidence is 1000% proven.. & only by having a video of the said events.
In short never guilty
Cash… the Party Room was ‘fractuous’.
Fletcher has never shown any appearance of wanting leadership. As a result I have never rated him.
Taylor has too much legacy hanging around. Or to put it another way, there is a belief that there is something suss about his water dealings whilst in government and a significant amount of the party room believes that this might become a major issue.
Hastie looks the part and has the smarts to handle the role. But he is smart enough to know that it would wiser to wait until closer to the next “next election” (as in the election after the next one).
Dan Tehan thinks he could be a leader but he has his mother’s brain power (she was generally seen as an ineffective as Victorian Health minister under Kennett and got in great trouble for buying personal items with the work credit card).
I can’t see them dumping Dutton. He proved his conservative credentials with the Voice referendum, he could even argue that he won that against the odds (file under lies told to told to one’s self). Dutton has not had things blow out in opposition like has happened in some of the states. The Liberals will stay with Dutts until the election.
Leftie there are stayers and there are players on PB.
Your a real performer though, there is more than a little Edith Piaf in you my friend.
I am sure you have realised some on here can get a little jealous on here of those with obvious star power.
Turnbull’s one word for Dutton?
‘Thug’.
Watching Nemesis II – Morrison leaking and lying about it even while Treasurer. I’m shocked!
@B.S. Fairman
Yeah, that’s fair. Hence why I qualified my explanation as a scenario that would happen if Dutton was no longer leader after the 2025 election. I expect him to lead the Liberals to that election, unless their polling tanks later on this year to 45-55 and worse, or things go badly for them in the Dunkley and Cook by-elections.
Boerwar says:
Monday, February 5, 2024 at 8:56 pm
Turnbull’s one word for Dutton?
‘Thug’.
_______
Which is really a condemnation of Turnbull. He gave Dutton an expanded Home Affairs Ministry.
Sceptic @ #578 Monday, February 5th, 2024 – 8:52 pm
Which flies against ‘beyond reasonable doubt’ or ‘on balance of probabilities’. Worked for Pell.
Morrison again had no idea what was going on and had no knowledge of what his supporters may or may not have been doing.
‘nath says:
Monday, February 5, 2024 at 9:00 pm
Boerwar says:
Monday, February 5, 2024 at 8:56 pm
Turnbull’s one word for Dutton?
‘Thug’.
_______
Which is really a condemnation of Turnbull. He gave Dutton an expanded Home Affairs Ministry.’
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I have so far gained something of respect for Zimmerman and Entsch. It thins out after that.
‘nath says:
Monday, February 5, 2024 at 9:05 pm
Morrison again had no idea what was going on and had no knowledge of what his supporters may or may not have been doing.’
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Mit smirk.
Congratulations to those with stomach enough to watch.
Itza:
It’s all good 🙂
MAFS has finished so I’ve switched over to Nemesis.
The former was group of men lying and obfuscating about events prior (to them entering MAFS). The latter is also a group of men lying an obfuscating about events prior (to leading up to the circumstances being portrayed).
Same – same.
What’s the collective noun for pricks?
Something I’ve often wondered is what Dutton’s plans were if he had actually succeeded in the 2018 leadership spill and became Prime Minister.
And also if those plans would have helped him win the 2019 election, or if he’d crash and burn McMahon style.
Morrison: I was friends with Turnbull and he was my mate.
Turnbull: I regarded him as one would a pit viper.
Do men lie more often than women? Are the better fairer sex intrinsically more honest? (exceptions apply)
The only question to come out of Nemesis & the LNP is to decide who is teh biggest prick out of them.. given they were all pricks not an easy task.
nath says:
Monday, February 5, 2024 at 9:05 pm
Morrison again had no idea what was going on and had no knowledge of what his supporters may or may not have been doing.
_________________
Captain Renault: I’m shocked! Shocked to find that gambling is going on in here. Croupier: Your winnings, sir.
Kirksdale – Yes, if the polling tanks to TPP sub 45 for a few months. But I can’t see that happening because there is nothing to drive such a plunge on the horizon. Sure, Labor could get to 54 or 55 at some stage, but anything further would require a major event (such as a major disturbance in the USA because of Trump).
McGrath reckons that Turnbull was a ‘turd’.
Turnbull just laughed outright at being expected to believe anything at all that Morrison said at any time.