The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year shows no change to the status quo after the tax cuts backflip or anything else to have happened over the holiday period, with Labor retaining its 52-48 two-party lead from the mid-December poll. Only minor changes are recorded on the primary vote, with Labor up a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 36%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation steady on 7%.
Questions on the tax cuts found 62% believed the government had done the right thing, but oddly only 38% felt they would be better off. Preferred prime minister is likewise unchanged at 46-35 in favour of Anthony Albanese, while at this stage we only have net results on the two leaders’ ratings: Albanese down a point to minus nine, Peter Dutton down four to minus 13. A number of gaps here should be filled when The Australian publishes full results tables.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1245.
UPDATE: Albanese is steady on 42% approval and up one on disapproval to 51%, while Dutton is down two to 37% and up two to 50%. The 38% better off figure turns out to contrast with only 18% for worse off, with 37% opting for about the same and 7% uncommitted. The 62% support rating compared with 29% opposed and 9% uncommitted. Both questions emphasised that the changes would be to the advantage of lower and middle income earners.
52-48 confirms what i and many here have been saying that the honeymoon is over but the government is tracking to win a second term.
Newspoll: no tax bounce from voters
A majority of voters have backed Anthony Albanese’s decision to scrap the legislated stage three tax cuts but are yet to reward Labor for breaking a key election pledge.
Not the result that the Oz wanted. Trying to pretend that Labor failed to lift their TPP, when they did everything they could to back Spud.
From the last thread:
TPOF says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 9:42 pm
Pretty much what I thought. It’s a good basis for the coming year though. The cuts have not actually landed and a lot of people are not paying as much attention as us political tragics believe. It’s interesting that only 38% thought they would be better off.
Unless there was a large sample of people who don’t pay tax (pensioners, etc) people don’t realise that the Morrison s3 cuts seriously screwed them unless they earned over $120k.
A lot to unpack from those statistics about how poorly informed people are. Basically people just don’t pay attention until they feel it.
Excellent result a year out and after the negative bombardment following the Bastard No whitewash.
Well done Albo, Chalmers and Gallagher.
Tories can suffer in their jocks.
Okay. As we were.
My stab at an explanation: it takes longer than a week for a change in policy like this to wash through. I certainly didn’t expect this.
Admiral Akbar to Albo “Break off the attack, it’s a trap”
Anthony Albanese’s leadership is in ‘freefall’ as polls reflect voter sway amid divisive issues
This was the title of one of sky news propaganda videos on YouTube
hardly in freefall
Wouldnt believe the date on Sky News.
How anticlimactic indeed!
Very anticlimactic.
There would be many on here that would be disappointed with that result.
Yes more a loud fart than a masterstroke it seems.
Griff
From previous thread
Douglas and Milko says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 9:38 pm
Late Riser
Sure, though mathematics is but a tool that physicists use to describe observation. Both are inventions of the mind, with no reality, residing only there. Chemistry is physics that got too complicated. etc.
Interesting. I started with mathematics, which to me still seems like something that just naturally comes out of the universe we live in?
Is it a construct of the universe, or simply a construct of the mind trying to understand the universe?
Hmmm – it does depend on what axioms you embrace, and to be honest, I have no idea, but it is fun to speculate.
________
And then we come to philosophy
Griff, in my retirement , I am looking seriously at the various strands of philosophy .
History and philosophy are (or should be) logical systems for understanding the world.
Also, if they conflict with science, then I hope than both scientists and philosophers can get together and talk about how to resolve their differences – because at the end of the day, it is science that keeps us honest: “Ye canna break the laws of physics (Scotty)”.
LVT
But not unpopular either. No skin off Albo at all for his so called “LIE” of the century.
from the previous thread
Douglas and Milko @ #828 Sunday, February 4th, 2024 – 8:38 pm
If I stumble over the article again, I will post it here. But there is “research” on your question. (Quotes because it’s not clear that they have yet established a science.) They propose that mathematics can be derived from the fundamental requirements of intelligent navigation of our universe, such as near/far, inside/outside, and so on. (I’m paraphrasing.) In that sense mathematics was invented to “do physics” (or engineering). And (or is it but?) in the sense that the universe constructed our minds, the answer is recursive. 😉 Agreed. Fun.
Taylormade says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 9:47 pm
Very anticlimactic.
There would be many on here that would be disappointed with that result.
________________________________________
Not me. I’m quite comfortable. It takes time to sink in. Your mob knows that, which is why they repeat the same shit word for word ad nauseam.
For the rest of the period until the election Labor has the opportunity to address a whole range of issues and make different groups happier than they were. If inflation rates continues to fall and interest rates slowly follow them down Labor, with increased revenue from high commodity prices can do some judicious pump priming.
Black swans willing, it’s all going Labor’s way. They may well be able to keep their promise about cuts in energy prices too before the end of its term.
I should add that all this is without seeing what Dutton and the Liberals have to offer the electorate.
Inflation still to fall further, interest rate decreases, budget in surplus with some goodies.
Yep, things economically will only get better and this time as opposed to 2010-2013, there will be no leadership crap.
Socrates at 9.45 pm
“That sound you hear was Peter Dutton throwing the LNP bus into reverse on the Stage 3 tax cuts.”
I heard nothing. It has been widely reported that Dutton does not drive, due to some past accident.
However, if you are speaking metaphorically, it might be more appropriate to say that he has stalled.
If you are speaking tactically, it would be more accurate to say that he doesn’t believe in reverse gear.
TPOFsays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 9:43 pm
From the last thread:
TPOF says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 9:42 pm
Pretty much what I thought. It’s a good basis for the coming year though. The cuts have not actually landed and a lot of people are not paying as much attention as us political tragics believe. It’s interesting that only 38% thought they would be better off.
Unless there was a large sample of people who don’t pay tax (pensioners, etc) people don’t realise that the Morrison s3 cuts seriously screwed them unless they earned over $120k.
A lot to unpack from those statistics about how poorly informed people are. Basically people just don’t pay attention until they feel it.
———————–
Tax cuts will come after Jul-1, so you’re right, “they’re” not feeling it atm.
My assessment – don’t think this is a bad result for Labor at all. I thought 51-49, but 52-48 first up for 2024, wins you an election.
* Morgan tomorrow – Good poll to watch for trends only, as they usually poll > 1500, and do it weekly.
* Redbridge Group – usually released via the australian Finacial review
* Resolve Strategic – usually released via the Age/SMH (ex Fairfax)
* YouGov – Due Fri AM, if we go by the 3 week turn a round.
Also, I had a look at the Antony Green blog and can’t see any chatter about merging electorates.
Ho hum. Nothing to see here except Albo wins yet again.
Inflation still to fall further, interest rate decreases, budget in surplus with some goodies.
Maybe we should get in touch with the good folk at sky news so they can share this good news with their followers?
Nothing has really changed since the Election.
Voters want to see money in their pocket, reduced interest rates and further evidence that the Government is properly managing the economy.
Furthermore, Bullock fucked up by raising the interest rates in November.
I will reinforce one thing. Most Australians did not actually know what was in the S3 tax cuts. All they heard was the phrase “tax cuts” coming to them. If Labor had done nothing and July 1 rolled around, most taxpayers who valued every extra dollar they could get would realise the tax cuts were a load of shit. And they would blame Labor, not Morrison or Dutton.
These changes avoided a political disaster for Labor as well as screwing Dutton and co.
And they were so arrogant and stupid they did not see it coming!!
TPOF says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 9:43 pm
and
Macarthur says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 9:44 pm
____________
This is why getting money into pockets (positive reinforcement) as soon as the change is announced (stimulus) is the ideal timeline. Proximity is operant conditioning 101. Internal polling/Dunkley may have advanced the announcement.
The result is far more substantial for Albo than L’arse would have us believe. It is – as I predicted this morning – a status quo result.
Unfortunately for L’arse – that means he is still stuck on the vinegar strokes, because consistent 52-48 polling results equates to a fairly comfortable return of a majority Labor government. The extended honeymoon may be over, but it seems that so is the post Voice decline.
poor L’arse: he just can’t get no … satisfaction.
Benson The Australian
“Newspoll: no tax bounce from voters for PM”
“A majority of voters have backed Anthony Albanese’s decision to scrap the legislated stage three tax cuts but are yet to reward Labor for breaking a key election pledge”
goll,
I think I wrote something very close to that headline a couple of hours ago.
The Prime Minister is dragging the team down. He needs to learn to loosen up and project a more ‘relaxed and comfortable’ persona. Bring DJ Albo to the job and lighten the fork up! Sure, he’s the leader of the nation, but haven’t Labor learned ANYTHING from John Howard, BoJo, Tony Abbott, Donald Trump and Scott Morrison? They got elected because they entertained the electorate, which allowed them to slip their policies through under the electorate’s noses.
Labor have hit a home run with the S3 tax modification, but they’ve got to sell it now. And that requires a bit of razzle dazzle and ‘flicking the switch to vaudeville’. Other wise Dutton and the Coalition will continue to grind away at the dour government and distract people from the good things they are doing.
Finally, could the Prime Minister get some elocution lessons!?! It’s grinding my gears the way he speaks! I’m sure I’m not the only one. He tends to finish his sentences about 3/4 of the way through, pauses, then adds the last bit. Ugh!
52-48 is okay, but the Coalition are still competitive on those numbers, and with what Labor has done they should be hitting it out of the park. And please, a reshuffle! I saw Linda Burney on TV after the death of Lowitja O’Donoghue, and titan of the Indigenous Movement that she is, I think that we need one of the younger Indigenous cohort in parliament now to replace her, she just seems to be too low energy.
Anyway, sorry to be Debbie Downer, but a good team is always looking for where improvements can be made so that they can lock in the premiership from half way through the season.
The big ‘Lie’ has done Albo no harm at all.
Douglas and Milko says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 9:50 pm
Griff
From previous thread
Douglas and Milko says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 9:38 pm
Late Riser
Sure, though mathematics is but a tool that physicists use to describe observation. Both are inventions of the mind, with no reality, residing only there. Chemistry is physics that got too complicated. etc.
Interesting. I started with mathematics, which to me still seems like something that just naturally comes out of the universe we live in?
Is it a construct of the universe, or simply a construct of the mind trying to understand the universe?
Hmmm – it does depend on what axioms you embrace, and to be honest, I have no idea, but it is fun to speculate.
________
And then we come to philosophy
Griff, in my retirement , I am looking seriously at the various strands of philosophy .
History and philosophy are (or should be) logical systems for understanding the world.
Also, if they conflict with science, then I hope than both scientists and philosophers can get together and talk about how to resolve their differences – because at the end of the day, it is science that keeps us honest: “Ye canna break the laws of physics (Scotty)”.
__________
More strength to your arm. And Scotty played with the laws of physics a few times 😉
nadia88,
I’d apply to do Political Science at Uni, if I were you. You’d be an Honours student!
L’arse and C@t on a unity ticket. That’s a turn up for the books. …
While it is something of a relief to see polling going as usual, I’m waiting for the results of the Dunkley by-election to see how things really are going. If it is retained by Labor by at least 53-56% 2pp, then that would be about the expected state of things if the national vote is indeed 52-48 Labor.
Also in Victorian politics, it was mentioned in the “Backroom Baz’s” blog on the Herald Sun, there’s rumours floating around that Tim Pallas intends to resign from politics shortly after he delivers the 2024 budget, which would mean a Werribee by-election around the middle of the year if true. But take it with a grain of salt, since it is the Herald Sun after all.
But it would make sense if it does come to pass, Pallas has been Treasurer for 9 years, and in parliament for 17 years, a length of time that would burn most people out.
“Questions on the tax cuts found 62% believed the government had done the right thing, but oddly only 38% felt they would be better off.”
“Oddly”? Not everyone is “all about me”. Voters are capable of hailing an action they view as beneficial to others, or the community in general, even if there’s nothing in it for them personally.
C@t’s assessment is correct.
It’s not the policies it’s Albo.
Whether the ALP is prepared to go through the necessary trauma of a first term leadership change remains to be seen.
The alternative pretty clearly is minority govt with the teals/ greens.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 9:48 pm
Yes more a loud fart than a masterstroke it seems.
===============================================
Patience, young grasshopper. Public opinion is slow to turn and gain momentum in a new direction, but turned it has.
So you don’t actually think the changes will leave most better off?
I’m going to take a punt and say the low support figures from the 18-34 cohort are made up of students and Renters (often the same, not always), who would have preferred and are still waiting for more support from the government as far as things which directly affect them are concerned. Of course, to do with Rental Assistance again, but also I haven’t heard anything yet about Uni fees and HECS. It’s all been about TAFE so far.
I’m also guessing that the government, more generally, have been marked down by them over Israel/Palestine.
Haha. ROTFLMAO! Comedy gold:
“ C@t’s assessment is correct.
It’s not the policies it’s Albo.
Whether the ALP is prepared to go through the necessary trauma of a first term leadership change remains to be seen.”
The alternative pretty clearly is minority govt with the teals/ greens.”
C@t: “Anyway, sorry to be Debbie Downer …”
Is she Georgina’s sister?
Is Daddy Dearest going to organise a preselection for her, too? 😉
‘Almonds officially overtook wine grapes as the largest crop on Australia’s biggest river in 2021.
Independent analysis by Victorian researchers shows nearly 7,000 litres of water are required to produce a kilogram of shelled almonds — and a single 1.2 gram almond requires more than 8L.
The boom in almond plantings in the Murray-Darling Basin has been led by big business.
Australia’s largest almond grower is Canadian investment fund PSP Investments, with about 12,000ha under production, followed by ASX-listed Select Harvests, which grows about 9,000ha of almonds.
Other investment funds have been expanding their orchards.
In a bid to rein in new farms competing for an increasingly limited water supply, the Almond Board of Australia has called for NSW and SA to follow Victoria’s lead and introduce a moratorium on issuing water use licences for new developments in the Lower Murray.
A spokesperson for the SA government said the state was not considering imposing a moratorium but was continuing to “monitor irrigation development and manage any potential impacts on water deliverability”.’
ABC Rural / By Else Kennedy, Angus Mackintosh, and Eliza Berlage
——————————————————————————-
Money trumps the environment every time. As a South Australian, I am really angry with the hypocrisy; SA governments have been banging on forever about how precious The Murray’s water is and criticising the Eastern states for their usage. Just lately, Malinauskas has refused to stop duck hunting. And now this. Peter is far from perfect.
AE
Thats like Pauline Hanson agreeing with Adam Bandt over climate.
Q: ‘flicking the switch to vaudeville’
I think the electorate tired of vaudeville after Abbot and Morrison (not to mention Johnson and Trump)…Dutton’s performative and hysterical stunts are not impressing anyone.
A quiet and workmanlike Government is more the Australian way…
I’ll inject a parting shot on philosophy. Philosophers invented science. The Ph in PhD stands for philosophy.
My thought on the Newspoll result is that Dutton failed, rather than Albanese succeeded. Nothing practical has changed for anyone.
Oliver Sutton @ #39 Sunday, February 4th, 2024 – 10:14 pm
She’ll be more successful than Georgina ever was! 😀
Torchbearer @ #42 Sunday, February 4th, 2024 – 10:15 pm
Oh, I don’t want them to fake it till they make it, just add a soupçon more pizzazz. 🙂
Oliver Sutton says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 10:11 pm
“Questions on the tax cuts found 62% believed the government had done the right thing, but oddly only 38% felt they would be better off.”
“Oddly”? Not everyone is “all about me”. Voters are capable of hailing an action they view as beneficial to others, or the community in general, even if there’s nothing in it for them personally.
_______________________________________
What I find odd is that 85% of taxpayers are better off. Now I don’t know what proportion of Newspoll’s respondents actually pay tax, but if even only 50% are taxpayers then 42.5% should actually be better off statistically.
Backs up my view that very few people actually knew how the s3 tax cuts would benefit them, but assumed they would. And they also assumed they would benefit only those who were the lowest income earners.
They need to see their paypackets in July to feel the benefit (hopefully together with dropping inflation and interest rates starting to drop).
Albo is -9 in personal approval.
Is that the frontman u want going into a tax scare campaign in the next election?
Notice how quiet Plibersek has been on s3?
Lars:
You seem to be suggesting the the main reason the government altered the S3 cuts was so they could get some huge boost in the polls. Which is kind of crazy, really, given that it goes against all conventional wisdom of what tends to happen in these sorts of situations.
What actually happened is that the government has managed to (partially) fix one of the Morrison government’s worst policies, made the tax system more equitable, and freed up extra revenue in a time when it sorely needed. And – at least on the evidence so far – they have done so without suffering any of the predicted political repercussions for breaking an election promise, to the point where it’s looking as though the opposition – who must have spent the last two years dreaming of the government gifting them this electoral opportunity – now will be rolling over and waiving through the changes.
That’s a huge win, Lars. Arguably a – what’s the word? – a masterstroke.
@Rainman at 10:14pm
I’m in agreement with you on that one. It really is outrageous that big agribusinesses are setting up farms with crops that require high amounts of water, like almonds, rice and cotton. That really is not suitable for Australia, what with such irregular rainfall.
There really does need to be more focus on this. Yes, it might be all fun and lucrative to grow these crops in these times with annual flooding and plentiful water, but not in the long term if there’s a repeat of the 00’s drought.
“So you don’t actually think the changes will leave most better off?”
Er, we seem to be at cross-purposes here.
It’s crystal clear that the great majority of taxpayers (a large subset of voters) will of course be better off.
I was struck by your use of the term ‘oddly’, as if the difference between 62% support and 38% feeling personally better off was, er, odd.