The biggest electoral news of the week was probably the annual release of electoral donations disclosures, which has been widely covered elsewhere. From the more narrow concerns of this site, there is the following:
• Ben Small, who served in the Senate from November 2020 to June 2022, has emerged as the only nominee for Liberal preselection in the regional Western Australian seat of Forrest. The seat will be vacated at the next election with the retirement of Nola Marino, who has held it safely for the Liberals since 2007. The West Australian also reports Mark Wales, an SAS veteran, Survivor winner and former McKinsey consultant, plans to nominate for Tangney, a normally comfortable Liberal seat that fell to Labor in 2022. Others known to be interested are Canning mayor Patrick Hall and IT consultant Harold Ong.
• The Liberal National Party has chosen its candidates for the looming Queensland state by-elections for the safe Labor seats of Inala and Ipswich West, respectively being vacated by Annastacia Palaszczuk and Jim Madden: Trang Yen, a 28-year-old public servant in the Department of State Development, and Darren Zanow, president of the Ipswich Show Society. The by-elections will be held concurrently with local government elections on March 16.
• With former South Australian Premier Steven Marshall saying he will formally resign from parliament “in the coming months”, the Liberals have preselected lawyer and former ministerial adviser Anna Finizio for the looming by-election for his seat of Dunstan, which once had the more instructive name of Norwood. Labor is again running with its candidate from March 2023, Cressida O’Hanlon, a family dispute resolution practitioner.
The first Newspoll of the year is like the night before Xmas on PB
I’m sure if the results are a bag of manure for either side, they’ll be out looking for the pony straight away.
GG
OK for anyone interested, this is the original Seekers song, Another You, on which my Ode to Pete, Another Term, posted at 8:28pm is based. Just sing along, thinking of Pete hoping to be PM.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmJSulwNazk
D&M: ‘And love the quote attributed to Ernest Rutherford, New Zealand physicist who then went on to great things, in Cambridge: “All science is either physics or stamp collecting”.’
Rutherford also said ‘energy from atoms is moonshine’.
That didn’t age well.
Macarthur says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 8:34 pm
Rainman @ Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 8:28 pm:
=============
I bet you wish your handle was for real. I would.
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Actually, there’s been quite a bit more rain than usual this summer. It’s even been a bit humid at times. Obviously, nothing like Sydney or Queensland but enough to make the locals, who are only used to dry heat, complain.
Regarding Newspoll will it be a case of :
When Dutton goes low, Albanese goes High?
OL,
A bit of fun to take away a bit of the drear never goes astray.
Macarthur: “I’d be surprised that regional Australians will have any more patience with a King Canute act on EV uptake than anyone else will.”
I prefer the archaic spelling, Cnut.
We’ve got to grow the pie chart.
Polling stations opened in Paris on Sunday for a referendum on tripling parking costs for hefty SUV-style cars, a campaign that has drivers’ groups up in arms against city hall.
Some 1.3 million Parisians are eligible to cast their ballot on the change, which would see cars weighing 1.6 tonnes or more charged 18 euros ($19.50) per hour for parking in central areas, or 12 euros further out.
Fully electric cars would have to top two tonnes to be affected, while people living or working in Paris, taxi drivers, tradespeople, health workers and people with disabilities would all be exempt.
“The bigger they are, the more they pollute,” Paris’ Socialist mayor Anne Hidalgo said in December to justify the step.
leftie,
High road/low road is a snippet of the traditional Scottish Ballad Loch Lomond.
You seem fixated by the concept. So, perhaps you’d like to hear the tune.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feLT7Btuqpc
Eston Kohver @ #737 Sunday, February 4th, 2024 – 6:08 pm
Sure, though mathematics is but a tool that physicists use to describe observation. Both are inventions of the mind, with no reality, residing only there. Chemistry is physics that got too complicated. etc.
Hope not, but a Newspoll with two fives in it could be 50/50. Nah…. perish the thought.
GG, you can’t go past Angus Young’s instrumental interpretation of that particular tune played live during an AC/DC concert in Edinburgh for the razor’s edge world tour circa 1991 and subsequently included on their AC/DC live 1992 offering
A tribute to Bon Scott
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwIFieB5ycw
Confessions at 8.49 pm
Did you read Saul Eslake’s essay about the $3.25 billion per annum windfall that WA now gets from the Commonwealth, way above any other state historically in terms of fiscal non-equalisation?
https://johnmenadue.com/the-worst-australian-public-policy-decision-of-the-21st-century/
“It represents a transfer of almost $40 billion over 12 years to the government of the richest state in Australia, which (as measured by per capita gross product) is richer than the rest of Australia by a vastly larger margin than any other state has ever been, at least since Federation, so that the citizens of that state can enjoy better public services and lower levels of state taxation than the citizens of the rest of Australia.”
The question for WA citizens is twofold: 1) isn’t that unfair? 2) why are you getting so little, in terms of adequate public services, including staffing of hospitals as revealed by tragic cases, given that?
leftie,
The tune is basically about a couple hopelessly in love but with irreconcilable differences.
However, over time it has been adapted as a favourite for funerals of loved ones because the person dying/seriously ill has gone/is going to a higher place while the bereaved are left to trudge on down here.
So Angus performance is understandable in that context.
Eston Kohversays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 7:08 pm
D&M @5:01pm
“I do not know if chemists still use this, but I was appalled in First Year chemistry that the rounded up if the last digit was odd, and down if it was even (or vise – versa) .”
There is a saying that
-physics is incompetently applied mathematics
-chemistry is incompetently applied physics
-biology is incompetently applied chemistry
-psychology is incompetently applied biology
======================================
Sorry Eston, I only completed studies to Year 12. Please explain? What’s your pick for Newspoll tonight
Greensborough Growlersays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 8:50 pm
The first Newspoll of the year is like the night before Xmas on PB
I’m sure if the results are a bag of manure for either side, they’ll be out looking for the pony straight away.
==================
I know. We’re all mentally unwell. Sick isn’t it…. and we should have 5 polls drop this week. I think we’ll all be on the grog or tablets by Friday afternoon
Oliver Sutton
Yes, correct. And Rutherford, from what I heard from those at the University of Canterbury in Christchurch, circa 1993, did not suffer fools gladly.
It was a very interesting conference I attended: some of the old farts (and now I am one) were delighted to tell us young’uns about how their supervisors knew Rutherford, and how they could regale us with his many pithy sayings.
I hope someone is writing down this “oral” history, because while none of this may be true, it will shine a light on our historical era, in the same way that “the lives of the saints” in the late Roman Empire has done. While these latter accounts were written to sway peoples minds (towards Christianity ), with no truth involved, historians now realise that, whether the accounts are true or not, the way the stories are told, the things talked about, give an insight into what was important in that society at that particular time.
Saul Eslake is a Tasmanian, so no wonder he is having a winge about a state that actually works for a living…
Slightly more seriously, the fundamental issue of unlimited GST distribution (as he proposes) is that it punishes states for temporary windfall gains, when those windfalls should be used to invest in less cyclical industries. I’d like to see WA move beyond just being a mining state, but that is difficult when the wealth is sucked out to the East during the good times.
I reckon a 52.5 to ALP with the ALP PV up to, say 35%
Taylormadesays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 7:49 pm
The Age 04/02
The head of Victoria Police has issued a scathing rebuke to protesters at Sunday’s Midsumma Pride March in Melbourne, describing them as an “ugly rabble” for throwing paint, calling police killers and blocking the officers’ path in the parade.
The protesters, some of whom were wearing pig masks with a police cap, confronted police at close range as they marched down Fitzroy Street in St Kilda. They walked around them, threw pink paint at them and chanted “cops kill queers”.
_____________________
Bloody hell. Neo Nazis one week, LGBTIQA+ a week later.
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Taylormade, yes this is a bit sad and I don’t support LGBTQ protestors attcking police officers for walking in a pride march. It must have been tough for those police to walk in support with gay people, and given the police force is predominantly male hetero oriented it must have been equally tough for those same police to admit their gay. Christine Nixon, in Victoria, encouraged gay police to “express themselves”, and and walk in harmony with the gay community. I am very surprised that elements within the LGBTQ community are attacking police – it’s like they want to have hate. I think you’ll find there will be a response from the senior LGBT communiity in the next few days, but yes I agree, this is sad.
Bizzcan at 9.30 pm
Eslake’s point is that a historical formula that had benefitted all states, including WA for many decades before the second mining boom, was breached for temporary, narrow-minded political expediency.
A majority of voters have backed Anthony Albanese’s decision to scrap the legislated stage three tax cuts and redirect relief from higher- to lower-income workers but are yet to reward Labor for breaking a key election pledge to deliver it.
An exclusive Newspoll for The Australian shows 62 per cent of voters believe the Prime Minister did the right thing, despite only 38 per cent of voters saying they would be better off. Yet the government has not derived a net political benefit from the move, with the two-party-preferred contest remaining unchanged since December and no improvement in Mr Albanese’s personal approval ratings.
While Labor’s primary vote nationally improved a point to 34 per cent at the expense of the Greens, which dropped a point to 12 per cent, the two-party-preferred split of 52-48 in Labor’s favour reflects the position the government was in at the end of last year.
The Coalition remains on a primary vote of 36 per cent while One Nation improved a point to 7 per cent and independents and minor parties remained stable on 11 per cent.
The poll of 1245 voters conducted between January 31 and February 3 showed, however, that a majority of voters agreed it was the right thing to do. Only 29 per cent of voters believed he should have stuck to his promise not to amend the stage three cuts.
Mr Albanese has said the tax cuts were aimed at Middle Australia. This was supported by the poll results, which showed that 43 per cent of 35- to 49-year-olds said they would be better off and 44 per cent of 50- to 64-year-olds agreeing they would benefit.
The Prime Minister also claimed his policy shift was aimed at women voters. The Newspoll showed female voters were significantly more likely to support the tax cuts than men: 65-59 per cent.
Those aged between 50 and 64 were also the most supportive of the change while the younger demographic – 18- to 34-year-olds – was least in favour.
Overall, 18 per cent of voters said they would be worse off as a result of the changes.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-electoral-status-quo-as-voters-back-tax-cuts-but-no-reward-for-labor-on-broken-promise/news-story/73a1403b8c6b4f92dd4cf63b377e526c?amp
52-48
I will take 52-48 anyday.
Twitter rumours let us down again.
Maybe next time.
Late Riser
Interesting. I started with mathematics, which to me still seems like something that just naturally comes out of the universe we live in?
Is it a construct of the universe, or simply a construct of the mind trying to understand the universe?
Hmmm – it does depend on what axioms you embrace, and to be honest, I have no idea, but it is fun to speculate.
Interesting 18-34 year old thoughts on S3 changes. Statistically they are to obtain the greatest benefit. Sampling or perhaps thinking the changes don’t go far enough?
New thread.
Douglas and Milko says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 9:38 pm
Late Riser
Sure, though mathematics is but a tool that physicists use to describe observation. Both are inventions of the mind, with no reality, residing only there. Chemistry is physics that got too complicated. etc.
Interesting. I started with mathematics, which to me still seems like something that just naturally comes out of the universe we live in?
Is it a construct of the universe, or simply a construct of the mind trying to understand the universe?
Hmmm – it does depend on what axioms you embrace, and to be honest, I have no idea, but it is fun to speculate.
________
And then we come to philosophy 🙂
Well 52-48 is good base to build from.
Don’t want to peak to soon
52-48
52/48 – I can live with that!
Pretty much what I thought. It’s a good basis for the coming year though. The cuts have not actually landed and a lot of people are not paying as much attention as us political tragics believe. It’s interesting that only 38% thought they would be better off.
Unless there was a large sample of people who don’t pay tax (pensioners, etc) people don’t realise that the Morrison s3 cuts seriously screwed them unless they earned over $120k.
A lot to unpack from those statistics about how poorly informed people are. Basically people just don’t pay attention until they feel it.
That sound you hear was Peter Dutton throwing the LNP bus into reverse on the Stage 3 tax cuts.
So that poll, if replicated at an election, would see a swing against the ALP of 0.13% since 2022. Which, if uniform, wouldn’t see them losing any seats. Of course, there’s some rounding in the poll figures, and swings are never uniform, so these notions aren’t to be taken literally. But the government could reasonably feel quite pleased with this.
Late Risersays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 9:03 pm
Eston Kohver @ #737 Sunday, February 4th, 2024 – 6:08 pm
D&M @5:01pm
“I do not know if chemists still use this, but I was appalled in First Year chemistry that the rounded up if the last digit was odd, and down if it was even (or vise – versa) .”
There is a saying that
-physics is incompetently applied mathematics
-chemistry is incompetently applied physics
-biology is incompetently applied chemistry
-psychology is incompetently applied biology
Sure, though mathematics is but a tool that physicists use to describe observation. Both are inventions of the mind, with no reality, residing only there. Chemistry is physics that got too complicated. etc.
======================================================
While Neuroscience is the primary science. As it is the study of the organ from which all the concepts and theories in all the other disciplines arose from.
Quote: “Cogito, ergo sum”
shellbell says:
“Twitter rumours let us down again.”
What, we can’t trust what someone posted on social media?
What’s the world coming to? 😉
#weatheronPB
Sun, glares with intent,
pushes away the few clouds,
shrugs off the slight breeze.
Entropy says,
While Neuroscience is the primary science. As it is the study of the organ from which all the concepts and theories in all the other disciplines arose from.
Quote: “Cogito, ergo sum”
—
Perspectives.
Q: On what science does Neuroscience rely?
A: All of them.
No man is an island.