The biggest electoral news of the week was probably the annual release of electoral donations disclosures, which has been widely covered elsewhere. From the more narrow concerns of this site, there is the following:
• Ben Small, who served in the Senate from November 2020 to June 2022, has emerged as the only nominee for Liberal preselection in the regional Western Australian seat of Forrest. The seat will be vacated at the next election with the retirement of Nola Marino, who has held it safely for the Liberals since 2007. The West Australian also reports Mark Wales, an SAS veteran, Survivor winner and former McKinsey consultant, plans to nominate for Tangney, a normally comfortable Liberal seat that fell to Labor in 2022. Others known to be interested are Canning mayor Patrick Hall and IT consultant Harold Ong.
• The Liberal National Party has chosen its candidates for the looming Queensland state by-elections for the safe Labor seats of Inala and Ipswich West, respectively being vacated by Annastacia Palaszczuk and Jim Madden: Trang Yen, a 28-year-old public servant in the Department of State Development, and Darren Zanow, president of the Ipswich Show Society. The by-elections will be held concurrently with local government elections on March 16.
• With former South Australian Premier Steven Marshall saying he will formally resign from parliament “in the coming months”, the Liberals have preselected lawyer and former ministerial adviser Anna Finizio for the looming by-election for his seat of Dunstan, which once had the more instructive name of Norwood. Labor is again running with its candidate from March 2023, Cressida O’Hanlon, a family dispute resolution practitioner.
ok William,
Basically, do you think the professional analytical team at newspoll work free from interference from journalists etc within the newcorp/skynews wider family of which newspoll is apart of?
Or would they expected to feed the sky news team etc data as it comes in and before they actually release the polls to the public?
I think lefties is asking to what extent do the Stonecutters control Newspoll.
nath,
My guess is the Oz will go with something like Government ratings up. But, Albo personal ratings take a hit.
I take it you are being ironic Lars.
Confessionssays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 7:08 pm
Christ on a bike.
Pretty much.
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A little unfair on Christ who only thought he was son of god. He appears to have nothing like the ego of a certain poster though.
Eston K
Love it!
And love the quote attributed to Ernest Rutherford, New Zealand physicist who then went on to great things, in Cambridge: “All science is either physics or stamp collecting”.
Either the Nobel committee, or the forces of karma in the universe, decided to award him the Nobel prize in Chemistry (not physics) in 1908.
Before I reported the quote, which I have known since I was young, I decided to search to make sure I had the quote correct. My version was “Physics is all of science; All else is stamp collecting”.
Anyway, the history of the phrase is interesting, and my guess is that Rutherford did say WTTE, relayed to various acquaintances etc verbally, which have morphed into various forms as handed down anecdotally by various generations of scientists and mathematicians .
Quote Investigator is worth reading: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2015/05/08/stamp/
Currently watching a rerun of today’s insiders.
Barely 5 minutes in and Speers looks close to a breakdown of some sort- you can almost see the veins popping from his forehead as he is made to read from the teleprompter of the favourable support of s3 changes among several polls.
To make matters worse the crass corridor creeper is then forced to endure a chat with a buoyed Albanese- a feast he has been relishing in since the voice failure.
I can only guess he has been banned for life from a News return due to his tenure with the ABC .
Greensborough Growlersays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 6:50 pm
Entropy,
So, you don’t see him as a “Rubber Ball” bouncing back again?
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No. I think Dutton’s belief that the LNP Will Never Find Another Me. Is wearing very thin with some of his colleagues. Who are possibly actively looking.
My Favorite scientist quote is from Richard Dawkins:
‘Science is interesting, and if you don’t agree, you can f@ck off’.
nath,
Brilliant. and no need for “in-jokes” among the Cambridge types and fellow travellers.
Entropy,
O where is Dutton, the Sinner Man going to run to?
The company that commissions a poll determines when it is released. A newspaper could commission a poll and release it any number of days after it was completed and handed to them, if they so wished.
Labor rolling up its sleeves and getting on with action to address climate change:
“ The Albanese government has unveiled its long-awaited plan for fuel efficiency standards for new cars while highlighting potential savings of $1,000 a year and predicting a Coalition-led scare campaign.
The proposed model, announced on Sunday, would place a yearly cap on the emissions output for new cars sold in Australia to incentivise carmakers to supply low- and zero-emissions vehicles and penalise companies that do not.
Legislation required to create the standards – which only apply to new passenger and light commercial vehicles – would be introduced to federal parliament in the first half of 2024 and take effect from January 2025, the government said.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/04/fuel-efficiency-standards-labor-unveils-proposal-highlighting-petrol-savings-of-1000-a-year-for-motorists
This gets the tick of approval from the benefited industry (Electric Vehicle Council), climate change action advocates (Climate Council, with a call for swifter implementation) and motorist groups (NRMA). I expect the Greens to perform the worthwhile function of identifying improvements to the plan and advocating for them. I expect the Coalition to mindlessly mock and stubbornly block their way to irrelevance as usual.
The Age 04/02
The head of Victoria Police has issued a scathing rebuke to protesters at Sunday’s Midsumma Pride March in Melbourne, describing them as an “ugly rabble” for throwing paint, calling police killers and blocking the officers’ path in the parade.
The protesters, some of whom were wearing pig masks with a police cap, confronted police at close range as they marched down Fitzroy Street in St Kilda. They walked around them, threw pink paint at them and chanted “cops kill queers”.
_____________________
Bloody hell. Neo Nazis one week, LGBTIQA+ a week later.
Incredible. Playing to the hayseed vote is not going to advance their electoral prospects at the next election.
fess,
https://www.google.com/search?q=Elon+Musk+Electric+vehicle+tows+aeroplane&rlz=1C1ONGR_en-GBAU960AU960&oq=Elon+Musk+Electric+vehicle+tows+aeroplane&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQIRigAdIBCjMwODI2ajBqMTWoAgCwAgA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:fc9a6c56,vid:rvk4fNxF0l4,st:0
Fun fact:
Athol Guy, the bass player in the Seekers, is a kindred spirit of Peter Dutton – probably why Dutton is obsessed with this Mornintown Ride train to nowhere in Frankston..
Guy was elected to the Victorian Legislative Assembly in a by-election on 11 December 1971 for Gisborne as a member of the Liberal Party.
He served as a member of the assembly until resigning due to ill health on 5 March 1979. One of its youngest members, he won three terms with an increasing majority before he returned to the commercial world as a corporate consultant. His achievements included the government’s purchase and development of Werribee Park.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athol_Guy
Greensborough Growlersays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 7:46 pm
Entropy,
O where is Dutton, the Sinner Man going to run to?
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I think it is time for Dutton to have a new dream. As he will never be PM.
“Dreaming of the someone you could be
Life is a reality, you can’t always run away
Don’t be so scared of changing and rearranging yourself”
Currently as opposition leader he is in a very lonely place.
“Nobody you meet could ever see the loneliness there inside you”
Seriously, I hope that Dutton does not wake up with a stranger in his bedroom while he is campaigning down Franghole way.
I think Dutton would like to Live in a World of His Own with his Aussie-MAGA offshoot
Confessions @ Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 7:49 pm:
“… Playing to the hayseed vote is not going to advance their electoral prospects at the next election.”
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Confessions, you are onto something. They are definitely sending their Nats ‘heavy hitters’ out for their initial attacks on Labor’s plan, in preference to Liberals:
“On Sunday the Nationals leader, David Littleproud, accused the government of trying to take away the country ute and of discriminating against regional people.
“We can’t let ideology get in the road of practical reality,” Littleproud told the Nine Network.
“If you take away particularly utes, they’re tools of trade, particularly for people, not just tradies in the cities, but also people in the bush. And if you put a tonne on the back of an electric ute at the moment, you don’t get far.””
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/04/fuel-efficiency-standards-labor-unveils-proposal-highlighting-petrol-savings-of-1000-a-year-for-motorists
Entropy,
I’m not certain that Dutts would like to teach the world to sing in perfect harmony, though.
Greensborough Growlersays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 7:57 pm
Entropy,
I’m not certain that Dutts would like to teach the world to sing in perfect harmony, though.
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Sprocket already answered that:
sprocket_says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 7:56 pm
I think Dutton would like to Live in a World of His Own with his Aussie-MAGA offshoot
Thinking about Dutton, he has been given a generous political free kick by the cost of living crisis that started soon after the change of government. This was pure luck; if the war in Ukraine had started a bit sooner it would have happened under Morrison.
Despite this, he has made no headway, and has presented no policy alternatives. If Dutton can’t beat Albo now, what chance has he when the economy starts recovering?
In light of their recent history I doubt the LNP want to change leaders again too soon. But if Dutton can’t win Dunkley, another piece of political good luck for the LNP in that a popular local Labor member died tragically early, what chance has he got in a general election? I think his appeal outside Qld is too limited.
Despite the talk about “peak Albo” I think it is the opposite. The No campaign was “Peak Dutton”, suiting his obstructive nature.
GG:
Yes I saw that image.
Socrates,
1. Dutton is not popular in Victoria or NSW.
2. As you say, he’s had no positive policy announcements in his incumbency.
3. Sure he helped defeat the Voice with his aggressive posturing. But, really? is that all the vision he has?
4. Queensland is his Fearless Fly “Wings of Steel”. But, Labor will start to make inroads soon imho. Then what has he got to offer?
Macarthur:
When I lived in regional WA I never saw a Tesla, to the point that when I moved to Sydney and saw these frog looking cars everywhere I had to ask someone what brand of car it was. And now there are more than just Teslas on the roads.
Around 1/3 of Australians live in rural Australia. If Dutton is hoping the rural vote will prop him up on this my feeling is that he is mistaken.
Greensborough Growlersays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 7:57 pm
Entropy,
I’m not certain that Dutts would like to teach the world to sing in perfect harmony, though.
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There is no harmony if the MAGA sect comes to power. As we all know from what MAGA attempted on January 6th:
“Come, senators, congressmen, please, heed the call
Don’t stand in the doorway, don’t block up the hall
For he that gets hurt will be he who has stalled
There’s a battle outside, and it’s ragin’
It’ll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls
For the times, they are a-changin'”
The new emission standards will cost the economy 600 thousand trillion dollars
The Government will take away your
monster truckSUV.The Australian economy is dependent upon the use of high emission vehicles and will collapse if these new emission standards are enforced and you’ll lose your job and have to eat worms.
“I’ve voted Labor all my life but now with these new emission standards I’ll never vote Labor again”
The President of Namibia has passed away aged 82 years.
Yes.
I wouldn’t have thought so. I don’t see that it would matter much if they did.
Confessions @ Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 8:16 pm:
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Confessions, thanks for the observation. I’ve only ever lived in Newcastle and Sydney myself, but I’d be surprised that regional Australians will have any more patience with a King Canute act on EV uptake than anyone else will.
Entropy,
Dutton might be “Knock, knock, knockin on heavens door” atm.
But the response is “Piss off, we’re full”.
Cheers.
Saw Albanese in the media the other week with the Dunkley candidate, out in public pressing the flesh.
Saw Dutton with the Dunkley candidate out in the weeds beside a railway track accompanied by some MPs who looked like they rather be anywhere else. Bowls club or the senior cits centre not interested I guess.
This guy is the alternative Prime Minister?
Given the modernity of Dutton’s worldview, I think the Seekers suits Pete.
Another Term, an Ode to Pete Dutton, with apologies to The Seekers
There’s a new world somewhere
Where all is like Queensland
And I’ll be PM there someday
Though how I don’t understand.
I still need you there to vote for me
No matter what I do
For I know I’ll never lead another term
There is always someone
To vote for us, Fox say
Will you please be my someone
Forever and a day
I could search the whole world over
Until my life is through
But I know I’ll never lead another term
It’s a long, long journey
If you stay by my side
When your home is hit by storms
I’ll won’t even try, even try.
If they gave me a fortune
I’d gladly keep it all.
Taxes might be due tomorrow
And I’d never pay at all
But if I should lose your vote, dear
I don’t know what I’d do
For I know I’ll never lead another term
But if I should lose your vote dear
I don’t know what I’d do
For I know I’ll never lead another term
Another term, another term
Greensborough Growlersays:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 8:23 pm
Entropy,
Dutton might be “Knock, knock, knockin on heavens door” atm.
But the response is “Piss off, we’re full”.
Cheers.
=================================================
Yet they are still open for business for everyone else
“Well I’m on my way to heaven
We shall not be moved
On my way to heaven
We shall not be moved”
So that’s me off too, cheers.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 6:33 pm
Already 35C in Melbourne on the way to a forecast 38C. Adelaide already at 38C. But thanks to abundant wind and solar energy, wholesale power prices are both strongly negative in the middle of the day…
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Adelaide hit 40C today. I just stayed cool inside my house, thanks to my solar panels running my air-conditioners. I guess they’re also helping keep the wholesale price down for those less fortunate. My battery keeps me cool at night too.
This could be an hour to go before Newspoll drops. I might as well go crazy-brave and predict ALP-LNP 55-45.
Very good, Socrates!
Socrates,
LOL,
My work is done, tonight.
Remember when I gave you the inspiration for the Eagle’s classic “Albanese”
My gifts never end!
Rossmcg
“ This guy is the alternative Prime Minister? ”
No I don’t think he is. dutton is the accidental PM because of an imbalance of Qld MPs in shadow caucus.
He is a placeholder.
GG
Yes indeed, that was great fun. I trust you know the tune to Another You 😉
Rainman @ Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 8:28 pm:
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I bet you wish your handle was for real. I would.
Whilst we wait for NewsPoll, some of their greatest hits…
Another classic NewsPoll pie chart..
Anything less that 52% for the ALP will bring out the PB loony tunes with Murdoch conspiracy theories.
Socrates,
Perhaps you could roll it out for the newer PB generation if you can find it.
Yes, I have most of their recordings and can sing along at the drop of a pun.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Sunday, February 4, 2024 at 8:38 pm
Anything less that 52% for the ALP will bring out the PB loony tunes with Murdoch conspiracy theories.
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On the principle that people don’t notice stuff until they feel it, I suspect Labor will not get a big bounce now. Given the operation of MOE I would not be surprised if Newspoll is as low as 51% for Labor and I’d be very surprised if it was above 53%.
The important thing is that public opinion will start to change and improve for Labor, with a bigger boost in the second half of the year as the tax cut benefit cuts in for everybody – even the highest income earners.
GG, you and your compadres have been in good form tonight. Can’t get those tunes out of my head. 53-47 for me.
sprocket_ @ #795 Sunday, February 4th, 2024 – 8:37 pm
‘We own the pie chart, therefore we understand the pie chart.’
😆