RedBridge Group has conducted its first federal poll for the year, and the movement it records since its last poll in early December is in favour of the Coalition, who are up three points on the primary vote to 38%. Labor and the Greens are steady at 33% and 13% with others down three to 16%, and Labor records a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, in from 52.8-47.2. A question on negative gearing finds an even split of 39% each for and against the status quo, with the latter composed of 16% who favour removing it from new rental properties in future and 23% for removing it altogether. Further detail is forthcoming, including on field work dates and sample size.
Progressive think tank the Australia Institute has published a number of federal seat-level automated phone polls conducted by uComms, most notably for Dunkley, whose by-election is now less than three weeks away. The result is a 52-48 lead to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 56.3-43.7 split in favour of Labor in 2022. After distributing a forced response follow-up question for the unusually large 17% undecided component, the primary votes are Labor 40.1% (40.2% at the election), Liberal 39.3% (32.5%), Greens 8.2% (10.3%) and others 12.4% (16.9%). A question on the tax cut changes finds 66.3% in favour and 28.1% opposed, although the question offered a bit too much explanatory detail for my tastes. The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 626.
The other polls are from the teal independent seats of Kooyong, Mackellar and Wentworth, conducted last Monday from samples of 602 to 647. They show the incumbents leading in each case despite losing primary vote share to Labor, together with strong support for the tax cut changes. In Kooyong, distributing results from a forced response follow-up for the 9.7% undecided produces primary vote shares of 33.5% for Monique Ryan (the only candidate mentioned by name, down from 40.3% in 2022), 39.5% for the Liberals (42.7%), 15.7% for Labor (6.9%) and 7.5% for the Greens (6.3%). Ryan is credited with a 56-44 lead on two-candidate preferred, but preference flows from 2022 would make it more like 53.5-46.5.
In Mackellar, distribution of the 10.8% initially undecided gets incumbent Sophie Scamps to 32.2% of the primary vote (38.1%), with 39.3% for Liberal (41.4%), 14.8% for Labor (8.2%) and 6.6% for the Greens (6.1%). This comes out at 54-46 after preferences (52.5-47.5 in 2022), but I make is 52.7-47.3 using the flows from 2022. In Wentworth, Allegra Spender gets the best result out of the three, with distribution of 6.3% undecided putting her primary vote at 35.1% (35.8% in 2022), with Liberal on 39.0% (40.5%), Labor on 15.3% (10.9%) and Greens on 10.4% (8.3%). The reported two-candidate preferred is 57-43, but the preference flow in this case is weaker than it was when she won by 54.2-45.8 in 2022, the result being 59.2-40.8 based on preference flows at the election.
Federal preselection news:
• Andrew Hough of The Advertiser reports South Australia’s Liberals will determine the order of their Senate ticket “within weeks”, with the moderate Anne Ruston tussling with the not-moderate Alex Antic for top place. The third incumbent, David Fawcett, a Senator since 2011 and previously member for Wakefield from 2004 to 2007, will be left to vie for the dubious third position against political staffer and factional conservative Leah Blyth.
• The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports nominations have closed for the Liberal preselection in Gilmore, and that Andrew Constance has again put his name forward, after narrowly failing to win the seat in 2022 and twice being overlooked for Senate vacancies last year. He faces competition from Paul Ell, a moderate-aligned lawyer and Shoalhaven deputy mayor who had long been mentioned as a potential candidate for the seat, having been persuaded to leave the path clear for Constance in 2022.
• Hannah Cross of The West Australian reports Sean Ayres, a 26-year-old lawyer and staffer to former member Ben Morton, has emerged as a fourth Liberal preselection contender in the normally conservative Perth seat of Tangney, joining SAS veteran Mark Wales, Canning mayor and former police officer Patrick Hall and IT consultant Harold Ong.
leftieBrawlersays:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 10:10 pm
entropy you need to accustom yourself to Australian slang, my dear boy. The colloquialism of ‘heavy’ in the context of big business or politics has nothing to do with sexuality- it is a reference to a high-ranking individual. I have no issues at all with new -Australians both entering into and having an interest in political discourse so I will cease with the whipping. But I hope you have learnt some valuable takeways from this evening my dear boy.
==================================================
The ESL gibe again. Are you and C@T doing tag on this today. Yes i understand you consider yourself superior to me because you are a native speaker of English and you consider me not to be. A superiority i can never better, because if English is not my first language it can never be. So you’ll will always believe yourself superior to me because of this. Therefore it is fact an honour you even allow me to have discourse with you i assume. So what have i learnt today?. I’ve learnt far less about Aussie slang then i have about Aussie casual racism it seems.
Note: Both “player 1” and “Ven” have both pointed out in posts today how racist it is to use the gibe of ESL against someone. It is racist gibe whether used against someone who does have English as second language or slur at someone who doesn’t. It implies those with English as first language are in some way superior. If you haven’t seen what “Ven” and “Player 1” posted on this subject today. Go back and have look. Maybe you can become a better person by reading it?.
Pueo @ #1240 Tuesday, February 13th, 2024 – 10:25 pm
I find it amusing how powerful old men have to keep on proving themselves…powerful. Wrecking the world while they’re at it.
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 9:36 pm
Something else is at play. Could be immigration, could be interest rate hikes, could be broken promise. The latter is possibly important – voters don’t like it, regardless of what the promise is that’s broken.
So, how do you square that circle with John ‘Never ever GST’ Howard’s broken promise and subsequent re-election?
Or the Coalition’s ‘No cuts to Health. No cuts to Education. And no cuts to the ABC or SBS’ broken promise and subsequent re-election?
Or do you only hold Labor to a high standard and think everyone else is unsophisticated and biased enough to do it as well?
So, here’s a theory of my own. People will appreciate who gave them more money, when they have it in their hot little hands.
===============================
Could be c@t.
Per Howard & the GST – He announced that if he won the 1998 election, he would implement a GST. He had a big swing against him and lost on the 2PP, but managed to scramble enough seats to win that election. I think back then people thought the GST debate was over. Beazley or Crean capitulated (ie: endorsed the GST) when they said “you can’t unscramble the egg”. Reference:
https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/why-labor-wont-abolish-howards-gst
It could be an early fake media piece from 2003, not sure.
Per The Libs “no cuts to health/ABC” – well they nearly lost the 2016 election. People didn’t like that backflip from their pre election promise. Voters don’t like this, and voted accordingly.
The difference between the “never ever GST” and the S3, is that Mr Howard took his “change of heart” to an election. Mr Albanese has changed his mind mid term and is prepared to legislate the change without taking it to an election. Public will decide in due course. I’m only speculating that this is a possible reason for the ALP’s flagging poll situation. I listed a couple of other possibilities. Don’t know, will see what the forum here thinks.
Back to the 1990’s – On the flip side, Mr Howard could’ve announced 3 days after his 1996 election – “forget about all the never-ever promises I made, I’m going to legislate a GST anyway”. He would have been decimated at the next election!
Anyway, all of the above is speculative history. The reality (or my gut feeling) , on 13-Feb-2024, is that the S3 revision has fallen flat. There has been no bounce for Labor (this is not an anti ALP, pro UAP, anti LNP, pro Green/anti JLN sentiment). It is the reality today. I am stunned, because my reading is/was that the tax changes have been met well. Something else is at play in the community. Most likely one of the issues I mentioned in an earlier post.
Libs will wave S3 through Parliament, but will then repeat ad-nauseum for the next 5 months the words “broken promise”.
When people get the $$$ benefit after Jul-1, I think sadly the message will have been lost.
I know you’re fairly pro-Labor, and believe me I’m not anti Labor, but an assessment of the current polls since the S3 revision does not look good for the ALP. I look at the polls only and keep the emotion side out of it. This site is an excellent indicator of trends (and leaks).
From my point of view, the trend is not good for Labor ATM.
BT should tick up to an ALP Primary of around 32.3/32.4% when next adjusted. This is not a “bounce”, this will be merely removing the deadwood polls from December last year.
Trump’s brag about heavying NATO allies who don’t spend 2% or more on defence by leaving them at Russia’s mercy is a somewhat vacuous threat, given that (almost) all the NATO countries which border Russia or are close to it meet that threshold:
Poland 3.9%
Estonia 2.7%
Lithuania 2.5%
Finland 2.5%
Romania 2.4%
Hungary 2.4%
Latvia 2.3%
Slovakia 2.0%
Norway 1.7%
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/2/12/2223137/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-720-Avdiivka-attacks-continue?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
I guess Norway has 12 months to lift its game, but I doubt the likes of Portugal and Spain are quivering at the thought of snow-covered boots trampling over the Pyrenees.
So, all Trump is doing is throwing red meat to his MAGA minions, but without really leaving any NATO country which is actually under threat from Russia in the lurch.
Entropy @ #1251 Tuesday, February 13th, 2024 – 10:27 pm
I find it as disturbing as you do. I was brought up to think Australians were better than that, but apparently this was just another lie we tell ourselves.
Yep. I listen to the Telegraph occasionally, but they waffle too much; catering for London commuters?
My dear boy, it appears you have learnt nada, a duck egg, sweet fa.
You claim to be the victim of casual racism after dispatching a crude, rude and inconsiderate homophobic throwaway line towards a highly respected and beyond reproach ex federal MP.
I’m having second thoughts about taking you under my wing, my dear boy.
C@tmomma @ Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 10:18 pm:
“Macarthur,
There are a few retiring Republicans in the House who might be willing to help.”
=======================
Cathy McMorris Rodgers and (I think) Rick Crawford to name two. Plus: special election tomorrow (overnight/tomorrow our time) to fill George Santos’s seat (New York’s 3rd congressional district), with a Democrat favoured to win. That’s a very handy seat flip right now, if they can manage it.
Palmer/UAP is finished as of Feb 2024. Forget about them. 1% is basically “no pulse”. Their vote has been swallowed up by the LNP.
For UAP, there won’t be any “Lazarus with a triple bypass”.
You can put UAP firmly in the basket of “dead, buried and cremated”, and take your pick which order that occurs.
Ok, enough from me this evening.
Should be a quiet week/10 days on polls, unless Resolve Strategic drops one (should be any day now)
Morgan next Monday and then Newspoll on Sunday 25-Feb.
Macarthur @ #1250 Tuesday, February 13th, 2024 – 10:38 pm
Mike Gallagher another.
Go Tom Suozzi!
Pueo @ Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 10:32 pm:
“Jake Broe and Denys Davydov: my two favourite YouTubers. Add in the (UK) Telegraph’s podcast “Ukraine: The Latest”, and you won’t want for info on that conflict.
Yep. I listen to the Telegraph occasionally, but they waffle too much; catering for London commuters?”
=====================
True – it does fill in my hour-long morning school drop-off / work commute quite nicely.
C@tmomma @ Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 10:39 pm:
“Go Tom Suozzi!”
=================
Indeed! Polls opened there in NY 42 minutes ago as I type this, and so close our time tomorrow 1pm.
nadia88,
Two points. As I pointed out to FUBAR, John Howard lied about supporting a GST so he could beat Paul Keating in ’96. So he snuck into power on a lie. Whereas, he could have agreed with Keating in a bipartisan way to introduce one. So he lied about his support of one instead. His ‘Never ever GST’ moment. He also knew that he needed to take it to an election after Keating had lost with the GST being a major reason for his loss, which Howard exploited mercilessly, backed by the media who had had enough of the Hawke-Keating government by that time. Mainly Rupert Murdoch.
Kim Beazley promised to roll back the GST and nearly won.
Secondly, as an organiser of the ‘March in March’, Anti 2014 Abbott/Hockey Horror Budget in 2015, I have seen how angry electors CAN get about a broken promise, and I’m not seeing it about the one the Prime Minister has supposedly done, according to those who want to class a redistribution as a ‘broken promise’. Most sensible people, in polls, which you love over everything else, have overwhelmingly approved of the move. Why don’t you give THEM any credence?
Now it’s official:
“The Democratic-led US Senate has voted to pass a $95.34bn aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, amid growing doubts about the legislation’s fate in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.
In a pre-dawn vote, lawmakers cleared the 60-vote threshold to send the legislation on to the House.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/13/us-senate-approves-95bn-aid-for-ukraine-israel-and-taiwan
And so now we get to see House Republicans’ true colours, especially Speaker Johnson’s.
No shit…
Avoid swimming pools if you’re part of Australia’s surge in diarrhoea cases, say authorities
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/13/avoid-swimming-pools-if-youre-part-of-australias-surge-in-diarrhoea-cases-say-authorities
Ewww
“LOL. Dutton is getting paid MORE than they for a lesser output.”
Dutton spent the last 2 days of QT having that bright spark Tehan ask the same dumb question over and over of Giles about the undeportables freed by the /High Court. And received the matching dumb answer every time? How much did he collect for that? a few months dole?
Best to avoid public pools after a swimming carnival 😉
Pueo @ #1270 Tuesday, February 13th, 2024 – 10:52 pm
You’ll never catch it at the North Sydney pool. 😐
I didn’t have the stomach for Nemesis; I think I lasted about five minutes before I remembered.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAxXexILiy8
Trump asks Supreme Court to keep Jan. 6 trial on hold, citing 2024 election
Donald Trump on Monday asked the Supreme Court to block a lower-court ruling that he can be criminally prosecuted for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, insisting that presidents are shielded from prosecution and that a trial would “radically disrupt” his reelection bid.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/02/12/trump-immunity-supreme-court-appeal-jan-6/
Um, that’s the point. His re-election bid NEEDS to be disrupted. 😐
Did Zimmerman ever cross the floor?
Gutless, unlike Bridget Archer
Here’s an article, which I have made available free to read, about what countries in NATO do spend and who’s below the 2% level:
https://wapo.st/3wgXwWZ
tl:dr the countries furthest away from Russia
“Dutton spent the last 2 days of QT having that bright spark Tehan ask the same dumb question over and over of Giles about the undeportables freed by the /High Court. And received the matching dumb answer every time? How much did he collect for that? a few months dole?”
Giles getting gummed to death by Tehan?
C@tmomma @ Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 11:08 pm:
===============
C@t, if military spending per GDP is what gets Trump’s respect, what about Ukraine’s 34% in 2022? Talk about a country pulling its weight in collective efforts to resist imperialist aggression!
https://www.statista.com/statistics/266892/military-expenditure-as-percentage-of-gdp-in-highest-spending-countries/
Minister Giles has obviously been identified as a weak link in the Albanese government by the Dutton Thug Opposition. Dutton also seems to have thought that the previously wishy-washy Dan Tehan needed to earn his thug spurs, so he has pushed him out in QT to thicken his hide.
“I was just inquiring as a matter of curiousity…”
Yar yar
“I find it as disturbing as you do. I was brought up to think Australians were better than that, but apparently this was just another lie we tell ourselves.”
Collectively we are terrible, our racism matched only by our ignorance.
Nothing to do with Giles abilities or the opposite, its just Dutton Thug-thugging about in what he presumes is his bailiwick
EDIT: and doing it by proxy becos’ Victorian byelection, and the Vics dont rate him
Bloody hell.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-13/150-ato-officials-investigated-in-tiktok-gst-fraud-scheme/103461748
Leroy at 10.23 pm
From John Ganz: “even little remnants of Putin’s Marxist-Leninist training appear, …”.
That is nonsense. Putin was educated as a spy. He attended the Leningrad KGB and asked them what he should study. That was in the early 1970s. The told him to study law, a most formalistic subject then.
At that stage so-called Marxism-Leninism was no more than a tedious ritual of internal censorship.
The projected audience of the Carlson interview was Western, not Russian. Putin is waiting for Trump.
See: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/02/10/kremlin-insiders-explain-key-takeaways-from-tucker-carlson-s-interview-with-putin
For a more interesting story see:
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/02/13/scholar-chris-miller-explains-the-challenges-and-pitfalls-of-moscow-s-fight-to-import-the-western-microchips-it-needs-for-russia-s-invasion-force-and-economy
Cat at 10.45 pm
” … after Keating had lost with the GST being a major reason for his loss, …”
That bit is upside down. Keating won the first (1993) GST election. Howard nearly lost the second (1998).
Describing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming two-day visit to the United Arab Emirates for the inauguration of the BAPS Hindu temple in Abu Dhabi as a “special occasion”, Abdulnasser Alshaali, UAE’s Ambassador to India, has said it “aligns with the values of tolerance and acceptance that guide our bilateral ties”.
https://indianexpress-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/indianexpress.com/article/india/pm-visit-for-abu-dhabi-temple-opening-aligns-with-tolerance-values-uae-envoy-9156499/lite/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17078327701202&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Findianexpress.com%2Farticle%2Findia%2Fpm-visit-for-abu-dhabi-temple-opening-aligns-with-tolerance-values-uae-envoy-9156499%2F
A temple dream rises in Arab dunes: Story of Abu Dhabi’s unique Hindu shrine
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is going to inaugurate the BAPS Hindu temple in Abu Dhabi on February 14. It is the first Indian temple-style Hindu shrine in the Middle East. Here is the story of how the temple, one of its kind in the Middle East, was built.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/abu-dhabi-hindu-mandir-temple-baps-pm-modi-desert-arabian-indian-hindu-architecture-marbles-sandstone-rajasthan-2498359-2024-02-13
New thread.
I asked around and I was misinformed about the Archers being siblings.
But someone did suggest that if they were it’d be like the Tasmanian version of the movie Twins. With Brigit being played by Arnold and Elise being played by Danny.
“ A-E: “Sorry, you’ll have to wait for your Tuckering. … Perhaps tomorrow.”
Oh dear, you’ve turned out to be a dud Tuck.”
_____
More a tired Tuck. You’ll keep 😉
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 5:03 pm
The radical extremists like to ignore our part in global emissions via our supply of massive amounts of fossil fuels.
Their profits come with a price of an uninhabitable planet for their grandchildren’s grandchildren.
The greatest act of selfishness one can imagine.
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Player One says:
Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 5:14 pm
It’s funny how the deniers always claim that (a) the emissions from our exported fossil fuels should not be counted as ours, at the same time as they (b) blame other countries for burning our exported fossil fuels, (c) import the products that result from this burning, but don’t agree that these emissions should be counted as ours either, and finally (d) claim there is nothing at all we can do that will have any influence over global emissions.
——————————————————————————
The person who refuels the bomber as it travels toward its target is as morally conscionable for the death and destruction caused as the person who opens the bomb bay and drops the bombs.
The country that refuels the fossil fuel burning plants of another country is as morally conscionable for the death and destruction caused as the country that burns the fuel.
Simples.