RedBridge Group has conducted its first federal poll for the year, and the movement it records since its last poll in early December is in favour of the Coalition, who are up three points on the primary vote to 38%. Labor and the Greens are steady at 33% and 13% with others down three to 16%, and Labor records a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, in from 52.8-47.2. A question on negative gearing finds an even split of 39% each for and against the status quo, with the latter composed of 16% who favour removing it from new rental properties in future and 23% for removing it altogether. Further detail is forthcoming, including on field work dates and sample size.
Progressive think tank the Australia Institute has published a number of federal seat-level automated phone polls conducted by uComms, most notably for Dunkley, whose by-election is now less than three weeks away. The result is a 52-48 lead to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 56.3-43.7 split in favour of Labor in 2022. After distributing a forced response follow-up question for the unusually large 17% undecided component, the primary votes are Labor 40.1% (40.2% at the election), Liberal 39.3% (32.5%), Greens 8.2% (10.3%) and others 12.4% (16.9%). A question on the tax cut changes finds 66.3% in favour and 28.1% opposed, although the question offered a bit too much explanatory detail for my tastes. The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 626.
The other polls are from the teal independent seats of Kooyong, Mackellar and Wentworth, conducted last Monday from samples of 602 to 647. They show the incumbents leading in each case despite losing primary vote share to Labor, together with strong support for the tax cut changes. In Kooyong, distributing results from a forced response follow-up for the 9.7% undecided produces primary vote shares of 33.5% for Monique Ryan (the only candidate mentioned by name, down from 40.3% in 2022), 39.5% for the Liberals (42.7%), 15.7% for Labor (6.9%) and 7.5% for the Greens (6.3%). Ryan is credited with a 56-44 lead on two-candidate preferred, but preference flows from 2022 would make it more like 53.5-46.5.
In Mackellar, distribution of the 10.8% initially undecided gets incumbent Sophie Scamps to 32.2% of the primary vote (38.1%), with 39.3% for Liberal (41.4%), 14.8% for Labor (8.2%) and 6.6% for the Greens (6.1%). This comes out at 54-46 after preferences (52.5-47.5 in 2022), but I make is 52.7-47.3 using the flows from 2022. In Wentworth, Allegra Spender gets the best result out of the three, with distribution of 6.3% undecided putting her primary vote at 35.1% (35.8% in 2022), with Liberal on 39.0% (40.5%), Labor on 15.3% (10.9%) and Greens on 10.4% (8.3%). The reported two-candidate preferred is 57-43, but the preference flow in this case is weaker than it was when she won by 54.2-45.8 in 2022, the result being 59.2-40.8 based on preference flows at the election.
Federal preselection news:
• Andrew Hough of The Advertiser reports South Australia’s Liberals will determine the order of their Senate ticket “within weeks”, with the moderate Anne Ruston tussling with the not-moderate Alex Antic for top place. The third incumbent, David Fawcett, a Senator since 2011 and previously member for Wakefield from 2004 to 2007, will be left to vie for the dubious third position against political staffer and factional conservative Leah Blyth.
• The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports nominations have closed for the Liberal preselection in Gilmore, and that Andrew Constance has again put his name forward, after narrowly failing to win the seat in 2022 and twice being overlooked for Senate vacancies last year. He faces competition from Paul Ell, a moderate-aligned lawyer and Shoalhaven deputy mayor who had long been mentioned as a potential candidate for the seat, having been persuaded to leave the path clear for Constance in 2022.
• Hannah Cross of The West Australian reports Sean Ayres, a 26-year-old lawyer and staffer to former member Ben Morton, has emerged as a fourth Liberal preselection contender in the normally conservative Perth seat of Tangney, joining SAS veteran Mark Wales, Canning mayor and former police officer Patrick Hall and IT consultant Harold Ong.
Zimmerman seems like a good man who might do very well as an independent if he’s seeking a political comeback, but – unless his political leanings have shifted significantly in recent years – anybody who was both willing to run under the Liberal banner after witnessing Abbott’s time as opposition leader and PM and willing to remain a loyal party MP throughout the Morrison years has no business becoming a Labor candidate.
Obviously there was something about the Liberal-Party circa-2015 that appealed to him enough to want to represent them in federal Parliament. He’s clearly not a dumb man, so I doubt he was naive enough to believe Turnbull was actually going to be able to bring about the moderate revolution like some braindead commentators here and in the media did.
See also: Bridget Archer
Spending on defence is always a conundrum …..
In times of peace, spending heaps of money on defence seems a waste of money, as while it is beaut the airforce has lovely and deadly planes, the navy lovely ships and the army more gear, there are just so many other ways in which the resources could be used. As a result it is fair to look at old forts which never protected anything and guns which never fires in anger as a total waste.
However, my observation is that come a time of conflict, there is much anguish as to why a country “was not prepared”
Best I think to look at defence as akin to a fire station. The gear and the people need to be there as some kind of insurance policy – a “just in case” scenario………….and, of course, there is a cost – but unavoidable in my view.
Macarthur,
I think, using the topic du jour tonight, that Putin is drunk on power.
A-E: “Sorry, you’ll have to wait for your Tuckering. … Perhaps tomorrow.”
Oh dear, you’ve turned out to be a dud Tuck.
Essential is still listing PUP because people still say they are going to vote for it. Really it is just catching the sundry Right wing minor party vote.
Cat
This is a reasonable article with pictures.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/half-a-million-victorian-homes-without-power-as-extreme-weather-smashes-state-20240213-p5f4nd.html
Transmission line faults are hard to clear, protection design you can blame ( and there will now be a witch hunt,because a fault at Anakie should not have tripped Loy Yang A ), your can’t blame the generators.
leftieBrawler at 9.27 pm
While the “effluent” areas that Labor currently represents (e.g. Kirkup’s old seat etc) might be presumed to be at risk of reverting to the Libs, we are about 385 days from the election so it’s too soon to tell.
Given the $3.25 billion annual windfall to WA that Saul Eslake publicised recently, if Cook and Labor cannot get re-elected with a still substantial majority then they will be revealed as slackers in charge.
The problem for the Libs is they will have few electorate staff to help, and not so many Fubar types.
Something else is at play. Could be immigration, could be interest rate hikes, could be broken promise. The latter is possibly important – voters don’t like it, regardless of what the promise is that’s broken.
So, how do you square that circle with John ‘Never ever GST’ Howard’s broken promise and subsequent re-election?
Or the Coalition’s ‘No cuts to Health. No cuts to Education. And no cuts to the ABC or SBS’ broken promise and subsequent re-election?
Or do you only hold Labor to a high standard and think everyone else is unsophisticated and biased enough to do it as well?
So, here’s a theory of my own. People will appreciate who gave them more money, when they have it in their hot little hands.
Tricot @ Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 9:31 pm:
“However, my observation is that come a time of conflict, there is much anguish as to why a country “was not prepared””
==========
And most of those times, it is the most unglamorous munitions of all that everyone cries out for: shells, shells and more shells. There is a strong case for saying that artillery and gun ammunition is the most important thing of all to stockpile in preparation for the worst.
B.S. Fairman at 9.32 pm
So if Boris Johnston was listed as a Tory import candidate in a WA poll he would poll well above Palmer.
It is simply idiotic of the pollsters to list Palmer’s erstwhile outfit when the old name ain’t coming back.
C@t
I’m a southerner so it’s a bit hard to tell if Bridget has an impact on state politics, but from this distance no not really. She only tends to turn up in the news for federal issues. Though her sister was the AG but she quit parliament a few months back.
Ashasays:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 9:31 pm
Zimmerman seems like a good man who might do very well as an independent if he’s seeking a political comeback, but – unless his political leanings have shifted significantly in recent years –
===============================================
It is no happening, Leftie is making it up. If they were really trying to get Trent to cross to Labor. It would be all going on in secret. Certainly the likes of Leftie would not be allowed to post it all over the internet. Till the deal was done and announced. If it was really going on and Leftie leaked it here without authorisation. He would be kicked out of the Labor party. As a leak like this would have the potential to derail any deal that was in progress.
frednk @ #1198 Tuesday, February 13th, 2024 – 9:34 pm
Thanks, frednk.
To be fair, John Howard took the GST to the 1998 election. He didn’t spring it on an unsuspecting public like Abbott and Hockey did the 2014 Budget. Abbott lied his way into office.
Thanks, Mostly Interested. So the family is big in Tassie politics? What side has Bridget Archer’s sister taken in the current imbroglio?
The weather in Melbourne town has been very settled and lovely over the past few weeks.
But today we had a doozy of a day. The winds and storms throughout the state was extremely damaging. Half the trains lines were affected by fallen lines etc.
Transmission lines destroyed.
The opposition and their merry followers are beyond idiotic.
How about acknowledging the extreme weather conditions that we endured today.
Tricot at 9.31 pm
“Best I think to look at defence as akin to a fire station.” I know what you meant but analogy imprecise.
Sounds like huge mangoes compared to small apples, which can be tasty, especially when homegrown.
At our local village rural fire station we had to fund installing a kitchen and, because we had only half the money needed, we had to source funds from grants from four different places, over 18 months, just to finish the work.
I’m sure such onerous efforts aren’t required on Russell Hill, even outside the AUKUS gravy-boat area.
entropy I just said I heard he has been hanging out with some Labor types of late according to a story relayed to me. It happens all the time.
You are just angry and lashing out due to your woefully disgraceful homophobic slurs towards him. Don’t worry about being kicked out- you’d never even be allowed in after a post like that my dear boy.
My part of the world got off lightly, but,there was one lightening strike this afternoon that literally shook the house. Never experienced anything like it.
Leftie
My guide on the Liberal hopes in WA is the preselection contests.
There are said to be three or more contenders in heartland seats like Nedlands, South Perth and Churchlands.
I live adjacent to Bateman which was another surprise Labor gain. But I think I read there’s only one contender for liberal preselection.
There will be a few seats up the coast from Perth and maybe around Mandurah that may switch but if there arent a few prospective candidates at lib preselections it says to me that people don’t think they are winnable.
Federally I hope Ben Morton still holds sway in Tangney and his former staffer, a 26 year old lawyer straight from the young Libs, gets the gig.
Sure to appeal to the growing number of Asian families in the electorate who flocked to Sam Lim.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 9:36 pm
“So, how do you square that circle with John ‘Never ever GST’ Howard’s broken promise and subsequent re-election?”
Oh, I don’t know. Maybe taking it to an election might have something to do with it.
Steve777 @ #1206 Tuesday, February 13th, 2024 – 9:44 pm
The point was about the lying. He said, ‘Never ever GST’. He stood there and said it. He was simply cunning enough to realise he needed to take his broken promise to an election. As I clearly remember at the time he was kind of cornered into it by the media.
“you’d never even be allowed in after a post like that my dear boy”
The volunteer hall monitor is on patrol. We can sleep soundly tonight.
Victoria says:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 9:47 pm
There’s never been summer storms before? Wow.
Cat at 9.45 pm
The Archer family is an old one in Tory politics in Tassie. However, Bridget has run her own race well.
It would seem, from Dr Bonham’s sidebar, that most observers expect an election there on 23 March.
That is a nice time of year there, so no reason for Rockliff to delay, because he currently lacks a majority.
Any further delay might possibly give the Tasmanian Labor Party some time to get itself organised.
FUBAR @ #1213 Tuesday, February 13th, 2024 – 9:50 pm
If he was so confident about winning an election with it he shouldn’t have lied about it in the first place and used it as a cudgel to beat Paul Keating about the head with. He should have had the guts to agree with Keating and allow him to introduce it. 😐
Thanks Ross ,
So if the WA cohort largely holds as well as the teals and seats like Gilmore and Bennelong for Labor it could be a pretty rough night for Spud?
If they all hold one would also assume that means Labor also holds the Sydney outer metros, toss in a few QLD gains and you are looking at 80-83 seats for the ALP.
I think you’ve forgotten the details of the GST debate c@t.
MI: “Though her sister was the AG but she quit parliament a few months back.”
I’m not sure of the extent to which Bridget and Elise Archer (the former A-G) are related: certainly not by blood.
Bridget is married to Winston Archer, who is a scion of the wealthy grazier family which has for generations owned large areas of northern Tasmania: including Woolmers and Brickendon estates near the town of Longford, both now tourist attractions. Elise Archer is married to Dale Archer, a one-time powerbroker in the Tassie Liberal Party but seemingly less influential in recent years. I’m not sure whether Dale is also related to the Archers of Woolmers and Brickendon or, if so, how closely: Kevin B might know.
leftieBrawler at 9.55 pm
Don’t forget the four possible Labor gains in eastern Melbourne and further east (Monash), under 3%.
Is Trent Zimmerman related to ex-Australian Retail Association, Executive Director, Russell Zimmerman? That may explain why he will never be Labor, if so. Too close to Big Capital.
You never know, he may be palling around with Labor so he can get a post-politics gig on the new AAT. 😉
C@tmomma @ Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 9:32 pm:
“Macarthur,
I think, using the topic du jour tonight, that Putin is drunk on power.”
=====================
C@tmomma, based on what I saw of Putin’s interview with Tucker Carlson on Jake Broe’s You Tube channel, Putin looks like a politician who would make zero impact in a Western election campaign: blathering on like a history lecturer going through a standard lesson for the gazillionth time in front of disengaged students. I think he has cocooned himself for so long in his bubble he has forgotten how to talk to anyone outside of it. He must also have forgotten what civilised people think is beyond the pale.
Dr Doolittle @ #1222 Tuesday, February 13th, 2024 – 9:58 pm
I’m still putting Monash and Casey on my bucket list for Labor gains.
I stand corrected Dr Doolittle!
As LVR would say:
“Bonjour there is never too much of a good thing!”
Sorry I thought I saw it reported in the Mercury that they were sisters. I’ll look it up tomorrow.
MB maybe we should arrange a PB catch up in Hobart.
Macarthur,
However, Putin has burrowed himself into the Russian body politic like an unmovable tick. He has no intention of moving. He’ll have to be blasted out. Literally. I thought the Russians were good at that? Any ice picks handy at this time of year? 😉
leftieBrawlersays:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 9:47 pm
entropy I just said I heard he has been hanging out with some Labor types of late according to a story relayed to me. It happens all the time.
You are just angry and lashing out due to your woefully disgraceful homophobic slurs towards him. Don’t worry about being kicked out- you’d never even be allowed in after a post like that my dear boy.
===================================================
How was what i wrote homophobic?. I have no problem with two men going out together. It seemed to be you that did when i suggested it though. I’m still not sure why i got called up on it, if i’m honest. Though i assume those who thought what i said was inappropriate. Would have also thought so if i said it about a female Liberal being seen with a male Labor so called “heavy”. I’m assuming gender of either party had nothing to do with it.
I suspect it was called up because Trent is possibly in a long term relationship. So what i said in jest was not fair on him, if that is the case?. It certainly has nothing to do with homophobia on my part. If i was homophobic i wouldn’t have suggested two men were going out. It was you who seemed to have problem with that suggestion not me though.
I doubt so c@t because in my dealings with Trent he has spoken of his retired, school principal father- A world away from the hypr-capitalistic St Ives set that have come via South africa since the late 70’s when the first wave left ZA
meher baba,
It’s Tasmania. They probably are related. 🙂
c@t: “meher baba,
It’s Tasmania. They probably are related. ”
Normally you’d be right. But not Elise: I believe her parents were Scandinavian immigrants.
entropy you need to accustom yourself to Australian slang, my dear boy. The colloquialism of ‘heavy’ in the context of big business or politics has nothing to do with sexuality- it is a reference to a high-ranking individual. I have no issues at all with new -Australians both entering into and having an interest in political discourse so I will cease with the whipping. But I hope you have learnt some valuable takeways from this evening my dear boy.
US Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson may end up being bypassed if he refuses to table the Senate foreign aid bill (expected to be passed by the Senate within the next few hours) for a vote:
“Democrats have the tool to go over Johnson’s head to put the bill on the floor with a discharge petition, and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries is ready to use it. “House Democrats are prepared to use every available legislative tool to make sure we get comprehensive national security legislation over the finish line,” Jeffries said during the annual House Democrats’ strategy retreat last week. He called on Johnson to “move to consider parallel national security legislation immediately.”
The discharge petition needs 218 signatures to be put on the floor. That means as of now, they need six Republicans to join them.”
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/2/12/2222991/-Speaker-Mike-Johnson-is-getting-squeezed-from-all-sides-on-Ukraine-aid?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_8&pm_medium=web
Macarthur,
There are a few retiring Republicans in the House who might be willing to help.
Jake Broe’s summary of the interview:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhUMIsBWbhU
His follow up video is also worth a look:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0toittBap0
Denys Davydov has a full breakdown of the interview on his “DDWorld” channel; it’s nearly four hours long:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIWbuhfh7DA
meher baba @ #1230 Tuesday, February 13th, 2024 – 10:07 pm
Thanks, mb. 🙂
Pueo,
How did you know I was going to be at home most of the day tomorrow!?! 😉
Pueo @ Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 10:18 pm:
=======================
Jake Broe and Denys Davydov: my two favourite YouTubers. Add in the (UK) Telegraph’s podcast “Ukraine: The Latest”, and you won’t want for info on that conflict.
https://www.unpopularfront.news/p/less-than-meets-the-eye
Less Than Meets the Eye
Parsing Tucker’s Putin Interview
John Ganz 13 Feb 2024
“Essentially, the interview consisted of a melange of multiple, sometimes contradictory, lines of propaganda about the war. But to say that it was “propaganda” also might gave a misleading impression: it suggests that there is a “real” underlying motivation for the war, while the justifications are merely self-serving deceptions for public consumption. But what it actually might reveal is superficiality and incoherence of the case for war itself. Instead, there were a number overlapping and shifting messages to different constituencies. is not a single overarching ideology at play, but rather a succession of “ideologemes,” little snippets of ideology: themes from Russian nationalism, Western far right cultural pessimism, anti-colonialism, and Soviet nostalgia all crop up—even little remnants of Putin’s Marxist-Leninist training appear, like when he talked about the “excessive production capacities” of the West. Putin doubled down on the theme of “denazification”—evidently somewhat to the irritation of the America Firster Carlson —while at the same time offering a revisionist picture of the start of World War II, sympathetic to Hitler’s territorial aims and essentially blaming the war on Polish intransigence, saying “they pushed Hitler to start World War II by attacking them.” This speaks to the awkward position of Russia claiming simultaneously claiming to embody the continuation of the Great Patriotic War’s anti-fascist crusade while being the darling of a far right at home and abroad, which views it as the last remaining hope of “white civilization.” “
Macarthur,
You may be interested in this article full of Republican truth-telling 🙂
https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/an-outbreak-of-republican-truth-telling
You just told me – LOL.
I haven’t watched it; if you watched all three episodes of Nemesis, you’re stomach is probably up to it.