Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 50, Coalition 46 (open thread)

More static poll results in the wake of the tax cuts revamp, of which more than half say they know little or nothing.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll adds to an overall picture of static voting intention despite the government’s income tax overhaul, with Labor down a point on the primary vote to 31%, the Coalition recording 34% for the sixth poll in a row, the Greens up a point to 14% and One Nation steady on 7%, with undecided steady on 5%. Respondent-allocated preferences nonetheless cause Labor to perk up a little on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has Labor up two to 50% and the Coalition steady on 46% (again with 5% undecided), Labor’s biggest lead on this measure since the start of October.

The poll also includes the monthly leaders’ favourability ratings, with differ from the separate approval ratings in inviting respondents to rate the leaders on a scale of zero to ten. This gives Peter Dutton his strongest result so far, with a four-point increase among those rating him seven or higher to 32% and a four-point fall in those rating him three or lower to 33%. Anthony Albanese improves slightly from December, when he recorded the weakest results of his prime ministership, with 33% rating him seven or higher (up one) and 35% three or lower (down two).

Questions on the tax cut changes confirm what was already established in finding 56% in favour and 16% opposed, while telling us something new with respect to awareness of them: only 10% consider they know a lot about the changes, with 37% for a bit, 40% for hardly anything and 13% for nothing at all. The poll also found 59% per cent for the “right to disconnect” laws working their way through parliament with only 15% opposed. Other questions cover fuel efficiency standards, party most trusted on tax, the importance of keeping election promises and the ubiquitous Taylor Swift, who scores a non-recognition rating of 3%.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead in from 53-47 to 52-48, but this is due to changes in respondent-allocated preferences rather than primary votes, on which Labor gains one-and-a-half points to 34.5% – its strongest showing from Morgan since October – with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 37% and 12% and One Nation down half a point to 4.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1699.

In by-election news, of which there will be a fair bit to report over the next six weeks, the ballot paper draws were conducted yesterday for Queensland’s Inala and Ipswich West by-elections on March 16, which have respectively attracted eight and four candidates. Ipswich West is a rare no-show for the Greens, who are presumably more concerned with the same day’s Brisbane City Council elections. Further crowding the calendar is a looming state election in Tasmania, which is covered in the post above.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,858 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 50, Coalition 46 (open thread)”

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  1. @Asha

    All I hope for is that it will be much, much harder for Putin and his fascist goons to extinguish Navalny’s memory than it was for them to do that to his life.

  2. rwhombat, if you’re still around, and of course also if you’re not. Thanks for the reference to Helgoland. There’s a consistent theme there. Another invention to be marvelled. I’ll pick up a copy from my local library.

  3. Inosmia’s a bastard. When Navalny returned, he must’ve had a death wish. That said, due to his courage he’ll be sanctified – right up there with John of Kronstadt & Matrona of Moscow, whereas Putin’s place in history will match Stalin’s.

  4. C@tmomma @ 12.45pm
    Julian Lesser, with Bridget Archer, maybe one of the few LP members with a social conscience.
    Alas, with the carve out of North Shore (NSW) electorates and the consideration that Bradfield, home of the Bald Iggle, will be abolished – with half going into North Sydney and the other half into a redrawn seat of Berowra I wouldn’t be surprised that the Bald Iggle, if he recontests, will be preselected over Fletcher.
    Bridget Archer is safe from pre-selection challengers. She holds a very marginal seat and the Lieberals know that if Archer goes then the seat will return to the ALP.
    Personally, any loss of a CLP seat is fine by me, irrespective of the member.

  5. OOPs.
    In my last statement regarding Berowra, it should read:
    “I wouldn’t be surprised that the Bald Iggle, if he recontests, will be selected over Lesser”.

  6. I really don’t know why folk give people like Lesser and Archer kudos: BOTH are signed up members of the 80 year old marketing scam that is the liberal party. BOTH became card carrying members of this marketing scam at the very time that Howard used it to teach Australians our true cultural values – kiss up, kick down – hard!

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