Despite a looming onslaught of by-elections (see the top of the sidebar for more information), there is not actually a huge amount to report at the moment. The only poll sure to report this week is the regular Roy Morgan, though Resolve Strategic for the Nine Newspapers (which was last heard from in early December) and Freshwater Strategy (which reports irregularly for the Financial Review, most recently in early January) are always possibilities. Which leaves:
• A party preselection ballot for the northern Perth seat of Moore yesterday ended with a 137-39 defeat for incumbent Ian Goodenough, the member since 2013, at the hands of Vince Connelly, who held the seat of Stirling from 2019 until its abolition in 2022. Connelly also mounted a narrowly unsuccessful challenge against Goodenough ahead of the 2022 election, and was made to settle for the lost cause of neighbouring Cowan. The preselection occurred against the backdrop of power struggles in the northern suburbs between the remnants of “The Clan” faction, which drew support from evangelical churches and of which Goodenough was a key member, and an alliance encompassing Connelly and state hopefuls Simon Ehrenfeld and Scott Edwardes.
• Further developments involving the WA Liberals with Senator Linda Reynolds’ announcement this week that she will not contest the next election, bringing her parliamentary career to an end when her term expires in the middle of next year. Dylan Caporn of The West Australian reports the front-runner to succeed her is Trischa Botha, who is of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander background, although she may be set for the uncertain prospect of third position on the ticket behind incumbents Slade Brockman and Matt O’Sullivan. Botha is the co-founder of an evangelical church in Perth’s northern suburbs with her husband, whose messianic language has been known to raise eyebrows. Also mentioned in a report by Katina Curtis in The West Australian is Kristy McSweeney, who ran unsuccessfully in Swan in 2022. McSweeney is a former adviser to Tony Abbott, founder of public relations firm The PR Counsel and daughter of former state MP Robyn McSweeney. UPDATE: The West Australian elsewhere reports that “former diplomat and long-time senior bureaucrat Jennifer Mathews” is a contender.
• The Poll Bludger’s guide to the Tasmanian election has been cobbled together in fairly short order, offering a general overview and extensive detail on each of the five multi-member electoral divisions replete with the usual charts, tables and maps. A few corners remained to be filled out, with the parties still getting their complete candidate line-ups in order.
I’ve heard Dr No’s maternal Grandfather was of Chinese extraction.
If true it is hilarious. Absolutely inconsequential, but amusing nonetheless.
A bit like Pauline hating redheads – while dying her hair red.
Dr No’s Trumpian overtures scare me more than his alleged bloodlines.
I’m not a Liberal supporter, and I reckon that Tony Abbott was a turkey. But I know he was a very well-intentioned and hardworking politician.
@meher baba
Tony Abbott intention was to get in at any at any cost. Including wrecking anything even if he thought it was good policy. Abbott by end of his parliamentary career wrecked Rudd’s Prime minstership, Gillard’s Prime Minstership, he’s own Prime Minstership, and then Turnbull’s Prime Minstership. Wrecked the NBN, and increased the debt despite slamming Labor for debt. While he was helped all along by a compliant media (Newscorp). He has sent this country back 20 years, so yeah it’s hard to see your point he was well intentioned.
It seems as though the former Prime Sociopath, Scott Morrison, is not going to go quietly. He was heightening tensions at a Pro Israel rally today calling the UN ‘antisemitic’ and questioned the viability of a 2 State solution.
Labor thanks him for wrecking Dutton’s play for the socially conservative Western Sydney and NW Melbourne Labor held seats with high concentrations of Muslim voters.
Correct as always Aaron- I actually saw the big man outside the chicken run as I was walking into to Woolworths.
The Davies stunt Hawke et al are brewing in Lindsay could well be enough to get us back in with a fighting chance.
Also there’s the added curiosity of Andrew Constance to finalise. Our shared friend deep inside the NSW moderates has suddenly gone all coy with me regarding him. So to me this suggests he may still be the wild card to throw into either Lindsay or Macquarie
It’s one of the worst kept secrets on the grape vine- both Ayres and his housemate have been introducing him to all the local captains of industry to get a feel for how he’d potentially go in Lindsay.
From the distinct change in enthusiasm I picked up from the big man there appears to be a sudden burst of enthusiasm in our preselection for Lindsay. He’s gone from suggesting that nobody of any distinction can be lured into having a tilt for us to now implying everyone from the unions to sussex street is now suddenly interested in Lindsay.
But unless they throw some real money into us t next time with a credible celebrity candidate to boot I can’t see us being competitive. Compounding things is Emma Husar suddenly back around the local traps. I saw her with her youngest boy at cranebrook maccas a couple of weeks ago and made sure she saw me shake my head in disgrace as she attempted to say hello. I just muttered a few choice words at her as I walked past. If she’s broken the unwritten agreement to stay out of a 200km radius of the seat it could spell trouble .
If she decides to run as an independent just to cause drama I have no doubt it will only fracture both ours and the green vote, leading to exhausted preferences or donkey votes
William Dutton was a famous seaman and whaler back in the early 19th century around Portland Victoria.
I was in Dutton House (blue) at Portland High School.
I agree with Political Nightwatchman there about Abbott.
It’s why I wanted to sign into Pollbludger in the first place. I thought the whole country was going absolutely mad in that suddenly in early 2010 that almost every TV news source was willing to give Tony Abbott’s opposition the benefit of the doubt every time, and it turned out to be the disaster it was in the end, and this was pretty much one of the only places on the internet at the time that was like “Wait a minute…”
C@t how would you compare ‘tensions’ and behaviour at both pro Israel and pro Muslim demonstrations in Australia of late? ( and of course how it ties in to the current Australian political narratives ?
Freshwater poll out AFR.
Says Coorey labor loses 4 in minority government says something in poll for all.
leftieBrawlersays:
Sunday, February 18, 2024 at 10:52 pm
Also there’s the added curiosity of Andrew Constance to finalise. Our shared friend deep inside the NSW moderates has suddenly gone all coy with me regarding him. So to me this suggests he may still be the wild card to throw into either Lindsay or Macquarie
===================================================
Sounds a great LNP plan. Nothing western Sydney electorates likes better than a parachuted in candidate i believe.
” leading to exhausted preferences ”
You can’t exhaust preferences when voting Federally, which Lindsay is. If you have any more questions on how the Australian Federal election voting system works. Just ask, most of us would be happy to explain it to you. We don’t want you wasting your vote out of ignorance. As you didn’t realise you needed to number all boxes on the Federal lower house ballot paper.
Are you sure you’re not getting confused with the actual Dr. No?
Political Nightwatchman / Kirsdarke:
Something that always gets me about accounts of Tony Abbott’s prime ministership like Episode 1 of “Nemesis” and Nikki Savva’s “Road to Ruin” is how shocked everyone involved seems to be that it all ended in tears. What the fuck were they expecting to happen when they put that clown in charge? It was obvious years before the 2013 election that he wasn’t remotely up for the job.
It will be interesting to see if the Liberal’s unfailing support for an Israel from the Med Sea to the Jordan River will have any electoral impact.
In Melbourne I don’t see them picking up either Melbourne Ports or Goldstein. I don’t see any viable targets in the Muslim-rich electorates in the NW as the margin is too great. Wentworth is even less likely to be a Liberal gain in 2025; Parramatta and Blaxland also unlikely to change.
….I don’t even…
Also there’s the added curiosity of Andrew Constance to finalise. Our shared friend deep inside the NSW moderates has suddenly gone all coy with me regarding him. So to me this suggests he may still be the wild card to throw into either Lindsay or Macquarie
@leftieBrawler
A Liberal woman MP Melissa McIntosh who won her marginal seat of Lindsay in 2019, and increased margin in 2022. Being dumped by a male in Andrew Constance who couldn’t win his own marginal seat in Gilmore. This would go down like a lead balloon with women voters. It was also mentioned on today on Insiders. That the Liberals under Peter Dutton are failing to fill enough women in preselection’s to meet quotas. I just can’t see the Liberals signing off on this period.
Ashasays:
Sunday, February 18, 2024 at 11:30 pm
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He muttered a few choice words at a woman with a young child at Maccas. The man is all class.
As I predicted earlier, the comedians at The West Australian have come up with a doozy for Albanese’s visit to Perth.
The paper wants a signed pledge that WA’s GST deal will remain as it is.
The front page of the paper has a graphic of the form he should sign.
First people quoted in the story are the local Chamber of Commerce and Industry boss and Liberal leader Libby Mettam.
I expect Bail Zempilas will be quoted too.
I’m surprised they have not replicated Abbbot’s “blood oath” to repeal the carbon tax.
It’s kindergarten stuff.
Entropy:
Hey, be fair, how else would you expect a reasonable person to react to a someone – um – taking her kid to a McDonalds in the electorate she used to represent and then saying “Hello”?
Political Nightwatchman:
I mean, you can’t count out the Liberals doing something astonishingly stupid – especially in New South Wales, where powerbrokers doing astonishingly stupid things seems to be the norm across the political spectrum – but dumping a seemingly popular and effective incumbant female MP who has now built up a profile in the area in order to parachute in a guy who doesn’t live anywhere near the electorate is surely too stupid even for them.
For what it’s worth, I do believe McIntosh was facing a preselection battle from the right last election and survived thanks to Alex Hawke’s shenanigans, so who knows? Maybe she is in trouble. However, I seriously doubt fellow moderate Andrew Constance would be the standard bearer for her opponents in such a situation.
Also, Constance seems pretty set on contesting Gilmore again, if his public statements are any indication. Considering how close he came last time, that would surely be the smarter play than getting parachuted into Western Sydney.
”
Ashasays:
Sunday, February 18, 2024 at 11:28 pm
Political Nightwatchman / Kirsdarke:
Something that always gets me about accounts of Tony Abbott’s prime ministership like Episode 1 of “Nemesis” and Nikki Savva’s “Road to Ruin” is how shocked everyone involved seems to be that it all ended in tears. What the fuck were they expecting to ppen when they put that clown in charge? It was obvious years before the 2013 election that he wasn’t remotely up for the job.
”
The story is repeating with Dutton.
C@t,
Morrison continues his mission in spreading his Pentecostal (Christian Zionist?) beliefs-
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/religion-and-american-culture/article/abs/pentecostals-israel-and-the-prophetic-politics-of-dominion/229DC7F19167D33778822793A7BF7063
And this-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/30/us-evangelical-christians-israel-hamas-war
Quasar says:
Monday, February 19, 2024 at 12:53 am
C@t,
Morrison continues his mission in spreading his Pentecostal (Christian Zionist?) beliefs-
The Liberals are the political operation of the evangelicals. They take themselves very seriously and are impervious to argument. Fundamentalism rules. Reactionary fantasists….absolutely unsuited to public service.
This was a comment to a video of David Bowie performing Heroes live
While there are plenty of other names I could substitute for David Bowie, I love the sentiment.
bc says Monday, February 19, 2024 at 1:20 am
It just occurred to me that there’s millions of people around the world who would feel that way about Taylor Swift.
Cartoons from @Cartoon4sale
Mac
Morton Moreland
Andy Davey
Andy Davey: John Curtice says Sunak has a “mountain to climb”. Yep. Not made any easier by Tice sitting firmly on his back. Not entirely sure what Reform is up to. Nothing good for sure, but what?
Chris Riddell
Harry Burton
Ben Jennings
Ella Baron on #Sunak #RishiSunak #Wellingborough #WellingboroughByElection #Kingswood #KingswoodByElection #SunakOut #Sunackered
Ellis Rosen
Stokoe Cartoons @mikestokoe
TV chef cartoon!
#lazy #food #tvchef #cartoon #greetingcards by #stokoecartoons
For #SundayMotivation
Tom Gauld
My latest cartoon for
@GuardianBooks
Jonesy Cartoons @jonesycartoons
“Yay” indeed! Many thanks to my followers – now over 7.25K of you!
@LucillaLavender #greetingcards #Sheep #socialmediamarketing #cartoon
Martin Rowson on the Labour bandwagon
Matt (saw the ideas on the BBC for New Overground Lines -the Murdoch media would be frothing in the mouth in Australia – probably are in the UK )
Graeme Bandeira on #GeorgeGalloway #RochdaleByElection #Rochdale – political cartoon gallery in London http://original-political-cartoon.com
Dave Brown after #AdolfMenzel
The original
An Uninvited Guest (1844 / Watercolor, pencil & ink) – Adolph Menzel
Larry the Cat on the new line names:
Douglas and Milkosays:
Monday, February 19, 2024 at 3:59 am
” Cartoons ”
A very pleasant and humourous surprise.
New thread.
Bob Lynch re Fast Bowlers.
Alan Donald (SA) was the fastest bowler I ever witnessed at the SCG, during the 1991 World Cup.
His 1st ball was so fast that Boon’s nick wasn’t given out.
This was well before DRS reviews.
If the keeper and slip cordon were any further back they would have been standing on the seats of the Bradman stand.
The best part of World Series Cricket was the World 11 games, featuring the great SA players, despite many of them past their prime.
We can discuss more at the Footy in 19 sleeps.
Continuing the naval discussion (because ships are cool), I want to test the theory that no major naval procurements were successfully commenced AND completed throughout the Abbott/Turnbull/Morison era.
I’m only going by Wikipedia here so happy to be corrected:
– ANZACs: Started under Hawke, first delivery under Howard (by a couple of weeks).
– Collins: Started during Fraser, first delivery under Howard (bloody hell that’s a long one)
– Armidales: Started under Keating, first delivery Howard
– Choules: Gillard fire sale purchase
– Capes: Started under Rudd, first delivery under Gillard.
– Canberra’s: Started under Howard, first delivery Abbott.
– Hobart’s: Started under Howard, first delivery under Turnbull.
It feels like a particular lack of project management and strategic planning under A/T/M, with the Hunters being the only major project committed to (and possibly never to be completed). But happy to be corrected.