Despite a looming onslaught of by-elections (see the top of the sidebar for more information), there is not actually a huge amount to report at the moment. The only poll sure to report this week is the regular Roy Morgan, though Resolve Strategic for the Nine Newspapers (which was last heard from in early December) and Freshwater Strategy (which reports irregularly for the Financial Review, most recently in early January) are always possibilities. Which leaves:
• A party preselection ballot for the northern Perth seat of Moore yesterday ended with a 137-39 defeat for incumbent Ian Goodenough, the member since 2013, at the hands of Vince Connelly, who held the seat of Stirling from 2019 until its abolition in 2022. Connelly also mounted a narrowly unsuccessful challenge against Goodenough ahead of the 2022 election, and was made to settle for the lost cause of neighbouring Cowan. The preselection occurred against the backdrop of power struggles in the northern suburbs between the remnants of “The Clan” faction, which drew support from evangelical churches and of which Goodenough was a key member, and an alliance encompassing Connelly and state hopefuls Simon Ehrenfeld and Scott Edwardes.
• Further developments involving the WA Liberals with Senator Linda Reynolds’ announcement this week that she will not contest the next election, bringing her parliamentary career to an end when her term expires in the middle of next year. Dylan Caporn of The West Australian reports the front-runner to succeed her is Trischa Botha, who is of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander background, although she may be set for the uncertain prospect of third position on the ticket behind incumbents Slade Brockman and Matt O’Sullivan. Botha is the co-founder of an evangelical church in Perth’s northern suburbs with her husband, whose messianic language has been known to raise eyebrows. Also mentioned in a report by Katina Curtis in The West Australian is Kristy McSweeney, who ran unsuccessfully in Swan in 2022. McSweeney is a former adviser to Tony Abbott, founder of public relations firm The PR Counsel and daughter of former state MP Robyn McSweeney. UPDATE: The West Australian elsewhere reports that “former diplomat and long-time senior bureaucrat Jennifer Mathews” is a contender.
• The Poll Bludger’s guide to the Tasmanian election has been cobbled together in fairly short order, offering a general overview and extensive detail on each of the five multi-member electoral divisions replete with the usual charts, tables and maps. A few corners remained to be filled out, with the parties still getting their complete candidate line-ups in order.
on the wa preselection wonder if goodenough will apeel he had the backing of the clan lead buy michaelia Cash the dominant faction in the Wa liberal party wonder if peter collier and Gioiran are concerned
Meher:
I have a cousin who lives out that way and if the heat doesn’t get you and the cold doesn’t get you, the floods definitely will.
They have to cool their home in summer, definitely heat it in winter, and then hope like hell and pray to all that might be holy the floods don’t take them under. It’s a shit life.
Re Penrith, about 50 km West of the Sydney CBD, it reached 48.9° (official BOM reading) on 4/1/2020, in the time of the 2019/20 bushfires. The Summer of 2019/20 was exceptionally hot in the East.
After Heat and Fire came the Plague, then it rained for two years.
Just because I can, I’m going to post about something I’ve been doing: that is, another of my occasional trips to places of great historical or sociological interest.
Today I had the great privilege of visiting George Town in northern Tasmania, about 30 minutes drive north of Launceston, with a population of about 7,000 souls. It’s one of the oldest towns in Australia (some say the third oldest, but the matter is subject to argument).
Since I last visited the place in the 1990s, the most wonderful museum has been opened there in the old picture theatre: the Bass and Flinders Maritime Museum. A professional sailor based in Coffs Harbour, name of Bern Cuthbertson, decided for some reason to build a replica of the Sloop Norfolk, the boat in which George Bass and Matthew Flinders circumnavigated Tasmania in 1798 and proved conclusively something that was already widely understood: that Tasmania was not in any way connected by land to the Australian continent. In 1998, Cuthbertson and his crew re-enacted the voyage: departing on the 200th anniversary of the day Bass and Flinders set off, and trying to mirror their itinerary as closely as possible.
In the mid-2000s, it was somehow decided tht the old George Town picture theatre should become a museum housing the replica vessel and a few others that Cuthbertson had created: including a replica of the Tom Thumb, in which Bass and Flinders explored the Georges River. So the roof was lifted off the picture house and, with great difficulty, the Norfolk was craned into the building. The result is a wonderfully eccentric, but highly interesting museum. I had a ball there for a couple of hours, before moving on to lunch at the atmospheric Italian trattoria next door.
I’d recommend it highly to anyone visiting northern Tasmania who has a half day to spare to travel up to George Town. It’s possible to combine a trip there with the Beaconsfield mine or the Beauty Point platypus house (both highly recommended) and/or the bizarre replica Swiss village at Grindelwald: the legacy of former Launceston supermarket mogul Roelf Voss, who built it with the funds he gained from selling his supermarket chain to Woolworths in the early 1980s. (Vos was a migrant from the Netherlands, so I’m not quite sure why he wanted to build a Swiss village, but that’s what he did.)
FWIW.
Aaron it’s pretty funny watching the unravelling of the Libs out west. The same is about the come to the surface here in NSW with their internal civil war raging.
First it was poor old Dr Honey souring amongst the rank and file, no longer considered sweet enough to hold court.
Now it’s poor old sleepy Mr Goodenough’s turn, no longer considered good enough for the liberal party.
For a party struggling with optics out in the wider electorate it makes no sense at all to bin a MP who represents ethnic diversity as a member of the Eurasian community.
This leaves Dutton as the only Eurasian member of the LNP at a federal level now. I can’t see this going well for them
Kirsdarke at 8.10 pm
I presume the AEC is well aware that the Swan River is much wider in many places than the Yarra River.
Antony Green says: “It is very unusual for the Swan River to be crossed by electoral boundaries down river from Guilford, with the single exception of North Fremantle. The drawing of boundaries almost always begins at the Swan River’s mouth, drawing Curtin and Fremantle before moving inland.”
LB: “This leaves Dutton as the only Eurasian member of the LNP at a federal level now. I can’t see this going well for them”
Is Dutton Eurasian? I didn’t know that. On which side of his family?
Michael Sukkar is half-Lebanese. Does that count?
Meher I always just assumed he was ?
Back in the 1990s CSIRO started doing detailed urban air shed modelling to identify best and worst places to settle populations in terms of long term habitability.
I recall at the time that both Western Sydney and Ipswich were identified as problems. Both were in valleys where air pollution (and hot air) could be trapped, while too far from the coast to get a sea breeze. So we subdivided them anyway 🙁
Scientists have been raising the need for street trees and more appropriate architecture and settlement patterns in these areas for 25 years. But we will have to wait till people are literally dying of heatstroke before that happens.
Socrates @ #410 Sunday, February 18th, 2024 – 9:34 pm
As always … follow the money … 🙁
The Yarra may not be wide but it’s always deeply divided Melbourne.
leftieBrawler: “Meher I always just assumed he was ?”
Here is the only online source I could find that suggests this.
https://www.australiaunwrapped.com/why-does-peter-dutton-look-asian/
To me, it doesn’t look like a highly credible source.
LB:
Wait, really?
All I can find online about his ancestry is that he is descended from several semi-notable figures from the early days of Australian colonial times.
Antony Green suggests that Victoria will lose a seat from eastern Melbourne. if so that could be a very interesting redistribution for the few liberals left in Melbourne.
A new fleet of small, well-armed warships will form the centrepiece of a sweeping restructure of the navy as the Albanese government seeks to rebut claims that it has been too slow to respond to the threat posed by China.
The long-awaited review of the navy’s surface fleet, to be released on Tuesday, will also retain the troubled $45bn Hunter-class frigate program in Adelaide, but with only six of the anti-submarine ships likely to be ordered rather than the initially planned nine.
It will also seek to shore up Labor votes in South Australia and Western Australia by announcing a plan for continuous naval shipbuilding in both states, despite studies showing substantial savings for buying warships off-the-shelf from overseas.
The decision on the navy’s surface fleet comes as the government is under fire for failing to provide any significant increase in defence funding, regardless of warnings last year that Australia faced the gravest strategic outlook in generations.
Criticism of the government’s national security credentials is expected to force it to approve an increase in defence spending in the May budget to fund a revamped, enlarged surface fleet as well as the AUKUS nuclear submarines.
The navy is in a parlous state, saddled with the oldest ships in its history, a lack of firepower, not enough crew to sail the existing fleet and the country’s biggest new warship project, the Hunter frigates, beset by delays, cost overruns and design problems.
The new fleet will increase the total number of the navy’s current 11 surface combatants and will also increase its firepower, which has fallen by 43 per cent since 1995 at a time when the Chinese navy has become the largest in the world, with more than 370 ships and submarines.
The move towards smaller so-called tier-2 warships was foreshadowed in last year’s Defence Strategic Review, which called for a navy with a “larger number of smaller surface vessels” to allow more well-armed ships at sea at any one time.
The government has examined a range of options to acquire a fleet of corvettes or light patrol frigates between 3500 and 5000 tonnes from Spain, Germany, Britain, Japan and South Korea. The first few of the new fleet of small warships is likely to be built overseas to accelerate their entry into service, but the rest of the corvette-frigate fleet is likely to be constructed in WA to produce a continuous shipbuilding capacity in that state.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence/a-new-fleet-of-warships-will-be-the-governments-response-to-a-rising-china/news-story/e7d6baab62259961e0b21fa2de518fd9?amp
I suspect that calling Dutton Eurasian is from the same school of politics that calling Rudd Eurasian was from. But maybe I’m wrong,
I’m pretty sure Dutton’s rather distinctive appearance is just the aging process at work. (The alopecia robbing him of his eyebrows probably hasn’t helped either.)
This is Dutton in his early thirties:
Certainly doesn’t look Asian to me.
nath at 9.35 pm
Except for Collingwood supporters, who are too numerous to mention on both sides of that watercourse.
@Asha
Well, I guess that’s the price you pay for making Horcruxes.
Do you have an issue with Eurasians nath?.
Personally I think they are one of the most successful communities to contribute to the modern Australian story
nath at 9.39 pm
“East and south-eastern Melbourne has 16 seats but the enrolment projections sum to only 15.3 quotas, even lower if parts of La Trobe or Casey are transferred to a regional seat. It is hard to see any other option than a seat being abolished in Melbourne’s east.
The redistribution is going to be a cross between a jigsaw puzzle and playing a giant game of pass the parcel. From wherever the Redistribution Commissioners start drawing boundaries, they will progress inland like a bulldozer, building up enrolment surpluses like piles of soil.”
“The political implications of the change are difficult to assess. The band of seats I have mentioned as possible abolitions are marginal, some Labor and some Liberal. The margins in Labor’s core seats look set to be left largely intact, leaving a scramble in eastern Melbourne as the boundaries of more marginal Labor and Liberal seats are re-arranged.”
https://antonygreen.com.au/victorian-federal-redistribution-using-updated-enrolment-data/
Dr Doolittle says:
Sunday, February 18, 2024 at 9:44 pm
nath at 9.35 pm
Except for Collingwood supporters, who are too numerous to mention on both sides of that watercourse.
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That’s true, but if there was a heartland for Collingwood supporters it would be the northern suburbs. When the people of Collingwood moved out of the inner city back in the day, many settled in Northcote and surrounding suburbs.
In fact, in the 50s, at the Northcote cinema, they played highlight reels of only Collingwood games and High Street was festooned with black and white.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/2/17/2223868/-Cartoon-The-2024-presidential-ballot?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_9&pm_medium=web
Frankly, and judging by reports (strategically placed leaks perhaps?) the Perfumed Warlord isnt going far enough with cuts to existing defence procurement programs. Not because we need budget saves, but because we need an urgent change in direction in certain areas of procurement.
In fact, were we to cancel AUKUS, we’d need to urgently buy an alternative submarine platform – and one that is essentially ready to start building (and hence spending tax payers dollars on) years before either ‘Pillar 1’ or ‘pillar 2’ of AUKUS.
However, I don’t want to get into submarines per se tonight. rather, I’d like to present a quick ‘hit list’ of programs entirely suitable for immediate cancellation:
1. The Hunter Class. In lieu of this monstrosity – which will NOT deliver a single operational ship for another 9 years, probably over 10 – and wont deliver the whole nine ships for a further 24 odd years we should immediately order another 3 Hobart AWDs. IF they can be enlarged to take a 80 cell VLS, then great, otherwise they should be ordered as per the current ones, but with the newer Aegis system planned for the scheduled upgrades, and perhaps the Anzac class AESAR radar (which is actually better than the American radar on the Hobarts). So long as we can get a further three AWDs into service by no later than 2030, then what ever the configuration will be ok.
In the longer term PAY both Navantia (as the existing supplier of the AWDs we have) and BAE Marine (who we have already spend a shed ton of money trying to get the Hunter class to actually work) to prepare fully designed next generation large surface combatants that we actually want (at least 100 VLS cells, AWD, ASW and missile shield capabilities, probably on a hull capable of displacing 12,000 tonnes) and then go straight into building the winning tender as soon as the last Hobart Block 2 ship is completed. It would take until around 2045 to build the first 6 of those, but after 2045, we could build a further 6 replacing the Hobarts as they get to between about 25 and 30 years of age on a ‘one for one’ basis. Leaving the RAN with 12 large surface combatants, supplemented by say 8 ‘light frigate / large corvette’ ‘tier 2’ warships, and a further dozen ‘upgunned’ OSPVs.
2. Apache helicopters. The whole rationale behind the switch from a more modern and capable attack reconnaissance helicopter to an older design has now collapsed with the Americans canning their own attack helicopter development program. We should stick with the Tiger until we can reach a definitive conclusion as to whether attack-reconnaissance helicopters have any place on the modern battlefield.I suspect the long term answer will be no, but the tigers would probably still serve the army adequately IF it ever had to deploy again in the next 10 years (which would take us close to their original scheduled retirement).
3. Abrams tanks. Are these 70 tonne behemoths now appropriate? I still think the answer to that is yes, but only in limited circumstances. Given the army’s pivot to being a littoral expeditionary force their role as a MBT seems pretty limited. At the very least the decision on purchasing 75 M1M2 SEP3s needs to be revisited. We probably need better amphibious armour. I know there are plans underfoot for some sort of upgrade of amphibious troop carrying capability, but I dont understand whether or not such vehicles will have the firepower or armour to swim onto the beach and then project armoured force.
Anyhow, I reckon there is probably close to $100 billion or so of rubbish that could be cut – and that money should be redirected into kit we actually need now: sovereign spy satellites, more missiles, more autonomous (air, sea and land) vehicles, better manned platforms to enable these sort of assets. All of which we need this decade.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, February 18, 2024 at 8:21 pm
Maybe MacArthur in time (around 2030) Australians will come to regret the defunding of Defence by Albo and Marles, when the Communist flag flys over Taipei and the Chinese PLA airforce overflys Guam?
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Yeah right, just 1% more of our GDP spent on defence would of stopped all this eventuating if indeed it does.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, February 18, 2024 at 8:21 pm
Maybe MacArthur in time (around 2030) Australians will come to regret the defunding of Defence by Albo and Marles, when the Communist flag flys over Taipei and the Chinese PLA airforce overflys Guam?
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Yeah right, just 1% more of our GDP spent on defence would of stopped all this eventuating if indeed it does.
Lefty, you have claimed that Dutton is Eurasian. If you have any evidence for the claim we’d all be fascinated to see it.
Generally people in Melbourne have tended to move outwards from where they already are. So Nath is probably right that people from Collingwood head sort of Northeast. But the clubs have been around so long that really doesn’t matter.
In days of Zoning, Collingwood got the Western Border League. Not sure if there is any difference in the following in that area.
nathsays:
Sunday, February 18, 2024 at 9:50 pm
Dr Doolittle says:
Sunday, February 18, 2024 at 9:44 pm
nath at 9.35 pm
Except for Collingwood supporters, who are too numerous to mention on both sides of that watercourse.
_______________________
That’s true, but if there was a heartland for Collingwood supporters it would be the northern suburbs. When the people of Collingwood moved out of the inner city back in the day, many settled in Northcote and surrounding suburbs.
In fact, in the 50s, at the Northcote cinema, they played highlight reels of only Collingwood games and High Street was festooned with black and white.
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Where i went to school in Briar Hill it was more than 50% Collingwood supporters but we didn’t consider that Collingwood heartland. That was Montmorency where the numbers were much higher.
Eurasian? Is that term still even used?
So far as I know, Peter Dutton is descended from Queensland squattocracy.
Although I did come across this snapshot of one of his more illustrious ancestors:
Re zoning. Collingwood also had part of the northern suburbs and up to diamond valley. Which is how we got the Shaw brothers from Preston amongst others.
Entropy
Not far from my part of the world. Definitely Collingwood country back in the day. Lol
@Steve777
Most unfortunately for Dutton is that domestic animals tend to lash out at him and run away whenever he approaches, so he’s lost even that with his ancestor Blofeld.
Dr Doolittlesays:
Sunday, February 18, 2024 at 9:26 pm
Kirsdarke at 8.10 pm
I presume the AEC is well aware that the Swan River is much wider in many places than the Yarra River.
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Only because we call the end of it that connects to the ocean Port Phillip Bay.
Steve:
If Dutton is descended from any of the Blofelds, it would be the Telly Savalas version:
Sydney is physically divided, even fragmented, by the Harbour and other waterways, but the less visible East-West divide is probably deeper.
LB:
I’m really not sure how you would have gotten that impression from Nath’s comment.
No new Newspoll?
Asha I thought nath was implying that Eurasian was a sledge
the old VFL zones:
https://www.reddit.com/r/AFL/comments/yc8vr4/old_vfl_zones_from_the_days_before_the_draft/
I’m not sure of the historical context of the surname, Dutton, but it sounds kind of Irish to me. Possibly English. Eurasian it definitely is not. Though I have to admit that when they meet me, people who don’t know me think that I ‘have Asian in me’. When I just don’t. My Mum has researched the family history and my son has done an Ancestry DNA test and so I can say with confidence that I do not. It seems to be something with the Irish. So that’s why I asked about the source country for the Dutton surname. If, indeed, we agree that he, too, looks ‘Eurasian’.
aparently acording to reports mark davies had the numbers last time to replace mcintosh but morrison and his numbesrs man hawke promised to save Feiravanti wells in return for davies pulling out in stead they had to convince a sick Jim molan to re contest his senate spot
B. S. Fairmansays:
Sunday, February 18, 2024 at 9:57 pm
In days of Zoning, Collingwood got the Western Border League. Not sure if there is any difference in the following in that area.
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Was my league back in the day , but is about had it now. Portland and Hamilton (merged with Imps) have joined the Hampden League. Coleraine and Heywood have joined the South West League. I reckon Casterton wants to leave as well. Might be just the 4 Mt Gambier teams and Millicent left. Some good footballers in that league, but only a few could handle the move from the country to the big smoke. Billy Picken, Wally Lovett. Hampden League was much more successful.
C@t,
I think Newspoll happens every 3 weeks now, so it would be due next week most likely.
Goodenough has been a mp since 2013 but it seems he has not achieved nmuch he chaired a couple of comities and is second deputy speaker aparently backed by the chirches
C@t:
According to Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutton_(name)
nathsays:
Sunday, February 10:00 pm
Re zoning. Collingwood also had part of the northern suburbs and up to diamond valley. Which is how we got the Shaw brothers from Preston amongst others.
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Twomey’s from the Yarra Valley. Had a lot to do with Mick when I was younger. Great bloke. Coached Portland for a while and then took up golf in his later years.
nathsays:
Sunday, February 18, 2024 at 10:00 pm
Re zoning. Collingwood also had part of the northern suburbs and up to diamond valley. Which is how we got the Shaw brothers from Preston amongst others.
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Ricky Barham gave me detention once, i have forgiven him for that. He was originally from Warrnambool.
Thanks Asha, and thank you, too, Kirsdarke. 🙂