Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 50, Coalition 46 (open thread)

More static poll results in the wake of the tax cuts revamp, of which more than half say they know little or nothing.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll adds to an overall picture of static voting intention despite the government’s income tax overhaul, with Labor down a point on the primary vote to 31%, the Coalition recording 34% for the sixth poll in a row, the Greens up a point to 14% and One Nation steady on 7%, with undecided steady on 5%. Respondent-allocated preferences nonetheless cause Labor to perk up a little on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has Labor up two to 50% and the Coalition steady on 46% (again with 5% undecided), Labor’s biggest lead on this measure since the start of October.

The poll also includes the monthly leaders’ favourability ratings, with differ from the separate approval ratings in inviting respondents to rate the leaders on a scale of zero to ten. This gives Peter Dutton his strongest result so far, with a four-point increase among those rating him seven or higher to 32% and a four-point fall in those rating him three or lower to 33%. Anthony Albanese improves slightly from December, when he recorded the weakest results of his prime ministership, with 33% rating him seven or higher (up one) and 35% three or lower (down two).

Questions on the tax cut changes confirm what was already established in finding 56% in favour and 16% opposed, while telling us something new with respect to awareness of them: only 10% consider they know a lot about the changes, with 37% for a bit, 40% for hardly anything and 13% for nothing at all. The poll also found 59% per cent for the “right to disconnect” laws working their way through parliament with only 15% opposed. Other questions cover fuel efficiency standards, party most trusted on tax, the importance of keeping election promises and the ubiquitous Taylor Swift, who scores a non-recognition rating of 3%.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead in from 53-47 to 52-48, but this is due to changes in respondent-allocated preferences rather than primary votes, on which Labor gains one-and-a-half points to 34.5% – its strongest showing from Morgan since October – with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 37% and 12% and One Nation down half a point to 4.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1699.

In by-election news, of which there will be a fair bit to report over the next six weeks, the ballot paper draws were conducted yesterday for Queensland’s Inala and Ipswich West by-elections on March 16, which have respectively attracted eight and four candidates. Ipswich West is a rare no-show for the Greens, who are presumably more concerned with the same day’s Brisbane City Council elections. Further crowding the calendar is a looming state election in Tasmania, which is covered in the post above.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,858 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 50, Coalition 46 (open thread)”

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  1. So, Essential 50/46/4 -> 52 – 48, in effect.
    Morgan 52 -48
    YouGov 52 – 48
    Newspoll 52 – 48

    Reassuringly consistent.

    Or perhaps (a la 2019) disconcertingly herded? 😉

  2. Peter Dutton personally intervened to allow a person with criminal convictions to stay in Australia for a further two months despite his department refusing on three previous occasions.

    The revelation about the former home affairs minister’s decision in February 2018 is contained in documents that were produced to a Senate inquiry that investigated Dutton’s personal intervention in favour of two au pairs.

    Dutton granted a visitor visa to the person two days after his office requested a submission, despite there being no evidence of a required change in circumstances since earlier refusals and departmental concerns about the person’s claim to be married to an Australian.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/14/peter-dutton-intervened-to-allow-criminal-to-extend-stay-in-australia

  3. Anthony Albanese has passed the political minefield of treaty onto the states as he reframes his Indigenous affairs agenda following the failure of the voice, revealing Labor will “take the time needed” to establish a truth-telling body and put its ­immediate focus on practical issues such as jobs, education, housing and justice.

    Handing down the annual Closing the Gap report, which revealed only four out of 19 goals were on track to be met and four were going backwards, the Prime Minister said the government must find a better way to improve the lives of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

    Mr Albanese said the government would work towards creating a Makarrata commission, a key plank of the Uluru Statement from the Heart aimed at elevating Indigenous stories in the telling of Australian history. The intention of the Makarrata Commission was also to oversee treaty making, but Mr Albanese said this process was being ­handled by the states and his ­government would “respond to their progress”. The comments were interpreted by Indigenous leaders as a delay in establishing the Makarrata Commission, despite Mr Albanese saying on election night he would implement the Uluru Statement in full. The Uluru Statement comprises an Indigenous voice, treaty and truth telling.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/indigenous/anthony-albanese-handballs-treaty-pledge-to-states/news-story/79d0a6efe9ec92e4a915531d9f778fe0?amp

  4. The FBI revealed it used a controversial foreign surveillance tool to foil a terrorist plot on U.S. soil last year, part of a series of last-minute disclosures it hopes will sway Congress as lawmakers debate overhauling the measure later this week.
    The bureau shared three newly declassified instances with POLITICO in which its access to data collected under the digital spying authority — codified in Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act — allowed it to protect national security, including one in which it thwarted a “potentially imminent terrorist attack” against U.S. critical infrastructure last year. The spying tool is set to expire in April if Congress does not renew it.
    The House is expected to vote as early as Thursday on whether to approve a major change to the foreign surveillance authority, which has faced backlash because it also sweeps in data from Americans. That change would require bureau analysts to acquire a warrant or court order before searching a database of emails, texts and other digital communications of foreigners for information on U.S. citizens. The proposal has support from lawmakers in both parties, and the FBI is on a campaign to sway those who are undecided or willing to reconsider.

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The SMH editorial is concerned that when it comes to recent serious criminal allegations regarding the awarding of contracts to run the nation’s multibillion-dollar asylum seeker offshore processing regime, any adherence to the “buck stops with me” principle appears to have been abandoned. When the extent of the allegations is detailed, it’s a stunning and outrageous outcome that should deeply embarrass everyone involved.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/buck-stops-with-nobody-in-embarrassing-fallout-from-home-affairs-scandals-20240212-p5f47a.html
    Peter Dutton personally intervened to allow a person with criminal convictions to stay in Australia for a further two months despite his department refusing on three previous occasions. The revelation about the former home affairs minister’s decision in February 2018 is contained in documents that were produced to a Senate inquiry that investigated Dutton’s personal intervention in favour of two au pairs.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/14/peter-dutton-intervened-to-allow-criminal-to-extend-stay-in-australia
    The Albanese government will face a fraught and dangerous experiment in dealing with Trump if he prevails at the election. Every Labor interest will favour Biden. If Trump returns to the White House, however, it would be a mistake to entertain catastrophic scenarios about the US alliance, writes Paul Kelly.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/anthony-albanese-faces-dangerous-terrain-in-a-second-trump-presidency/news-story/29df1dc665312764610d0922ce18452e?amp=
    Coalition leaders Peter Dutton and David Littleproud are urging Barnaby Joyce to take leave to deal with personal issues nearly a week after he was filmed lying on a Canberra footpath after a long parliamentary sitting day, reports Paul Sakkal. They have each spoken to the maverick MP in Canberra this week and suggested he take time off to sort himself out after a difficult period, according to two sources aware of the conversations granted anonymity to speak freely.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-littleproud-urge-joyce-to-take-time-off-work-to-deal-with-personal-issues-20240213-p5f4mu.html
    For the first time in forever, Jenna Price feels sorry for Barnaby Joyce.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/for-the-first-time-in-forever-i-feel-sorry-for-barnaby-joyce-20240212-p5f4dg.html
    Journalist for The Australian Janet Albrechtsen “infected” Walter Sofronoff, KC, the chair of the inquiry into the botched prosecution of former Liberal staffer Bruce Lehrmann, with bias against former ACT top prosecutor Shane Drumgold, a court has been told. Said masthead has a great track record of “infection”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/journalist-infected-lehrmann-inquiry-chair-s-findings-against-prosecutor-lawyer-20240213-p5f4fn.html
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/13/walter-sofronoff-bruce-lehrmann-inquiry-contact-details-the-australian-janet-albrechtsen-shane-drumgold-ntwnfb
    One in three primary and secondary students can’t read proficiently. It’s a deficiency with a costly economic sting, laments Ross Gittins who attacks the neoliberalism from which we are starting to emerge.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/want-better-productivity-start-by-ensuring-our-kids-can-read-20240213-p5f4j8.html
    Neil McMahon writes that, at a time of unprecedented pressure and stress for the national broadcaster, Nemesis has been a useful reminder of the institution at its absolute best.
    https://www.smh.com.au/culture/tv-and-radio/nemesis-caps-off-an-extraordinary-exercise-in-documentary-journalism-20240212-p5f47f.html
    The government is well behind on Closing the Gap. This is why we needed a Voice to Parliament, argues James Blackwell.
    https://theconversation.com/the-government-is-well-behind-on-closing-the-gap-this-is-why-we-needed-a-voice-to-parliament-223309
    From poker machine scandals to child abuse cover-ups, the last of Australia’s blue states has become tarnished by corruption. Rosemary Sorensen reports.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/rockliff-government-vies-for-corruption-crown,18322
    Sarah McPhee reports that yesterday a jury heard that secret recordings captured construction boss George Alex leading discussions on how to hide a $13 million tax fraud syndicate, which splashed cash on property and cars, from the Australian Taxation Office. Ales and his four cohorts could be in a spot of bother.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/secret-recordings-capture-george-alex-running-multimillion-dollar-fraud-jury-told-20240213-p5f4it.html
    Elizabeth Knight explains how Australia’s top legal firm, Corrs Chambers Westgarth, looks to be ushering in a remuneration model for its Australian lawyers that is more akin to some of the largest US law firms, in which the rainmakers can make exorbitant salaries larger than those in profligate investment banking firms.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/controversy-surrounds-law-firm-ceo-s-63-million-payday-20240212-p5f4bu.html
    There’ll be a good indicator – if not a firm result – by the time most Australians go to bed tonight. Then we’ll know if the ferociously ambitious Prabowo Subianto – Indonesia’s political psychopath – will be running the nation next door and booting out democracy, writes Duncan Graham.
    https://johnmenadue.com/farewell-democracy-link-b-pic-prabowo-subianto/

    Cartoon Corner

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  6. With the US military aid bill to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan passing the Senate 70-33, it is now up to MAGA Mike Johnson to allow it to be voted on in the House (where it will probably pass). Note 18 Republican Senators just gave the 2-finger salute to Trump.

    On Dotard’s orders, MAGA Mike is calling the bill “dead on arrival” – which may be what his Speakership is about to experience. Two possible paths being floated:

    1. If 218 signatures can be obtained – 213 Democrats and 5 Republicans, the House is obliged to debate the bill.

    2. As just 1 member can call for a spill of the Speakership, this is another way to pick off the required 5 Republicans – replace MAGA Mike with someone friendly to bill passing.

  7. And if Tom Sozzi gets elected today in NY3 that’s one more vote in the Dems’ column. 😀

    So, it might actually be Maga Mike’s Speakership that becomes DOA. Hopefully with some blowback on Donald Trump who is shown to be not as much in control as he likes to portray himself to be.

  8. Dutton would gladly extend a visa for someone with a criminal conviction if they were, say, a white Afrikaner convicted of assaulting or attempting to murder a non-white South African.

  9. From The Washington Post on the vote:

    Last week, Senate Republicans capitulated when the House GOP signaled it wouldn’t take up a bipartisan bill that combined border security with funding for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. Rather than forcing the issue by showing how much Senate GOP support the bill had, even the deal’s supporters voted against proceeding with it.

    This week, Senate Republicans went in a very different direction.

    Despite House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) signaling again that the House wouldn’t vote on the aid bill that stripped out the border security measures, 22 Senate Republicans voted for it. The bill passed 70-29.

    The question now becomes just how much pressure the GOP senators have applied, and how committed the party’s foreign policy hawks are to compelling the House to act. The internal and inter-chamber GOP clash that was forestalled on the border security deal might well be coming on the Ukraine-Israel-Taiwan supplemental.

    The Senate vote reinforced something that has been plainly evident: that these pieces of legislation in all likelihood have strong majority support in both chambers. To the extent they’re not going to become law, it’s because House Republicans refuse to allow a vote.

    The Senate vote demonstrated that — in spades. Getting 70 votes on something major is rare in this polarized age. It received the votes not just of 71 percent of senators who were voting, but 46 percent of Republican senators.

    The level of support echoed how the House has voted on Ukraine funding — the bulk of the aid bill — in the past. Every Ukraine funding vote in the House has received at least 73 percent support. Ukraine funding opponent Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) reportedly acknowledged Tuesday, “If it were to get to the floor, it would pass; let’s just be frank about that.”

    The justification for the House not voting on this bill would likely be that it doesn’t have majority support in the House GOP, which is a key threshold that House leadership often uses. Republican support for funding Ukraine has gradually fallen since Russia’s February 2022 invasion, to the point where the last funding vote received 46 percent support in the House GOP — the same figure from Tuesday’s Senate vote.

    But that doesn’t mean Republicans who support the aid can’t try, and 22 Senate Republicans have at least gotten the ball rolling.

    There is already talk among Democrats of a discharge petition, in which a vote can be forced by a majority of the House — i.e. the vast majority of Democrats and enough House GOP foreign policy hawks. If a similar percentage of House Democrats supported the bill as Senate Democrats (just three on their side voted no on Tuesday), you’d need fewer than two dozen House Republicans to support a discharge petition.

    This option is regularly floated but rarely invoked. It requires not just a majority of the House to support something, but enough members of the majority party willing to buck their own leadership in a very confrontational way.

    It would seemingly remain unlikely. But if there were ever a time in which it would seem viable, it might be on an issue that its supporters feel as strongly about as combating a Russian invasion and at a time in which the power of the speaker is so diminished. GOP hawks could also pressure Johnson merely by threatening to go down this road.

    There are other options on the table, including those GOP hawks forcing the issue by trying to gum up the works in other ways, such as through the rules process — a tactic the hard-right has used to significant effect.

    House Intelligence Committee Chairman Michael R. Turner (R-Ohio), a supporter of the aid, has gone so far as to predict the House will ultimately somehow vote for the aid. He said, “The speaker will need to bring it to the floor.”

    “We believe that there is overwhelming support in the House and the Senate,” Turner said, “and this will get done.”

    (Turner also floated the idea of Democrats saving Johnson’s speakership if the party’s hard-right, anti-Ukraine funding wing sought to oust him. Democrats declined to do so when Republicans ousted Kevin McCarthy of California from the speakership last year.)

    Also key is just how dead-set Johnson is against having a vote. He has voted against Ukraine funding in the past while expressing concern about accountability and the cost, and he drew a line in the sand this week. But he has also made a point to play up the importance of supporting Ukraine.

    “Now, we can’t allow Vladimir Putin to prevail in Ukraine, because I don’t believe it would stop there, and it would probably encourage and empower China to perhaps make a move on Taiwan,” Johnson told Fox News shortly after becoming speaker. “We have these concerns. We’re not going to abandon them.”

    Johnson certainly must feel the need to demonstrate to Ukraine funding critics that he’s not bowing to the Senate. But those kinds of comments would seem to make punting altogether on the funding rather discordant.

    And Senate Republicans have now forced him into some very significant choices on an issue of huge, worldwide importance — in a way they declined to do last week.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/13/senate-republicans-forced-issue-ukraine-aid-now-comes-hard-part/

  10. Lars Von Trier,
    Just noticed your ill-informed, smarmy comment on the Pakistan election as I was editing mine (normally I have your comments blocked). Maybe you haven’t noticed, because you spend all day, every day here, trying to one-up people, that the negotiations to form a new Pakistani government are still ongoing and very consequential? With the party of jailed Imran Khan with the most votes but not enough to form government, in negotiations with the party of Benazir Bhutto’s son, who is also being courted by the party of Nawaz Sherif, there is still a long way to go in this story.

    Next time, know of which you choose to slime people about in your, oh so insipid, way before you comment.

  11. Hi William and fellow pb’ers, It seems with every new poll the Labor 2pp keeps shrinking, is that the main take away?

    If these trends continue would we assume the next one would have labor’s 2pp at a level below 50%?

  12. sprocket @ Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 7:05 am:

    “With the US military aid bill to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan passing the Senate 70-33, it is now up to MAGA Mike Johnson to allow it to be voted on in the House (where it will probably pass). Note 18 Republican Senators just gave the 2-finger salute to Trump.”
    ==========================

    Sprocket, close, but not quite correct on the partisan voting split in the Senate. It was slightly more Republicans and slightly fewer Democrats than you indicated:

    “Very good news from the United States Senate (not a sentence I’m used to writing these days!): The Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan national security bill passes, 70-29. Democrats 48-3. Republicans 22-26. So one and a half responsible parties in Senate.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/feb/13/congress-foreign-aid-bill-new-york-election-politics-latest-updates?page=with:block-65cb97588f08475cae3d5e1b&filterKeyEvents=false#liveblog-navigation

  13. Is the general consensus that the house republicans who previously wanted to delay this bill for Trump would now back it without delay after his shocking comments about NATO and inviting Putin to invade any one that doesn’t pay its share ?

  14. C@tmomma @ Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 7:21 am:

    “From The Washington Post on the vote:

    “The Senate vote reinforced something that has been plainly evident: that these pieces of legislation in all likelihood have strong majority support in both chambers. To the extent they’re not going to become law, it’s because House Republicans refuse to allow a vote.

    The Senate vote demonstrated that — in spades. Getting 70 votes on something major is rare in this polarized age. It received the votes not just of 71 percent of senators who were voting, but 46 percent of Republican senators.

    The level of support echoed how the House has voted on Ukraine funding — the bulk of the aid bill — in the past. Every Ukraine funding vote in the House has received at least 73 percent support. Ukraine funding opponent Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) reportedly acknowledged Tuesday, “If it were to get to the floor, it would pass; let’s just be frank about that.””
    ================================

    C@tmomma, thank you so much for sharing that WaPo article. Especially the bit I quoted from you. 🙂

  15. From lead post: ”the Coalition recording 34% for the sixth poll in a row”

    Looks a bit suspicious, given a margin of error of 2-3% (depending upon sample size). You’d expect it to jump around a bit.

  16. Andrew Hough’s ‘exclusive’, appearing in Murdoch’s ‘The Advertiser’ is an unashamedly malicious article reporting on Indigenous affairs.

    The byline screams:
    “Ceduna violence crisis ‘being fuelled by scrapping of cashless debit card’, critics claim”

    It seems the critics are: ‘ Local residents and community leaders’

    And:

    ‘Indigenous Liberal senator Kerrynne Liddle, the federal opposition child protection and prevention of family violence spokeswoman, said Ceduna was among several remote communities “in crisis” after the debit scheme was scrapped.’

    And also:

    ‘The Federal Liberal member for Grey, Rowan Ramsey, said had received “numerous pleas to my office from residents, councillors, tourists and businesses… Most… link the surging violence and anti-social behaviour to the removal of the Cashless Debit Card. They are desperate and need action now.”

    Videos on social media are cited as “evidence.”

    However,

    ‘Authorities noted “many other towns” that were never part of the program were experiencing similar issues including Port Lincoln.’

    And Social Services Minister Amanda Rishworth commented:

    “To suggest young people behaving badly was somehow curbed by the cashless debit card is baseless.”

    This article is a follow up, from the same author:
    ‘Fury at ‘glorifying’ Instagram videos of spiralling violence showing brawling teens in SA town.

  17. Is there actually a blocking capability on PB?.

    As far as I tell functionality appears limited to just the adding of an image to your name, the colours of your name and being able to change your email and password login details. Am I missing something?

  18. ‘subgeometer says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 11:07 pm

    Did Zimmerman ever cross the floor?

    Gutless, unlike Bridget Archer’
    ———————
    Zimmerman crossed the floor with four other libs to help Labor sink Morrison’s vicious religious discrimination bill.

    You may now apologize to a perfectly decent human being.

  19. Steve777 says:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 7:44 am
    From lead post: ”the Coalition recording 34% for the sixth poll in a row”

    Looks a bit suspicious, given a margin of error of 2-3% (depending upon sample size). You’d expect it to jump around a bit.
    ————————–
    34% is a 1.7% drop from the 2022 federal election , its unlikely Dutton will survive this year , if newspoll is that around september – October this year

  20. Rainman: My understanding is that, in small to medium-sized towns such as Ceduna, waves of violent crime within Indigenous communities are usually the consequence of a) exceptionally hot weather and b) the flaring up of longstanding enmities between different groups and families.

    In these situations, the imposition of measures to control access to alcohol can be helpful. But, while I’m nowhere nearly as convinced as most politicians of the left that the cashless debit card is such a terrible idea, it’s ridiculous to blame these sorts of events on its removal.

  21. The cashless debit card’s institutional arrangements turned out to be a nice little cash cow for the Liberal Party and some snouters. I do hope that someone has made a referral for the processes by which these were put in place.

    The critical policy issue here for remote communities is not the cashless debit card. The issues around the cash card are symptoms. Not outcomes. The core policy issue here is that the complete set of traditional Indigenous values can not function in a capitalist system. And vice versa. Add ongoing colonialism and the gap(s) will never be closed. The gaps then become a sort of proxy for a public policy debate that is counter productive because it does not even begin to address the real drivers for the gap(s). MB’s post is a partial example. Hot weather has been a standing element of Cenduna’s climate for millenia. Pushing previously separate family groups off country and into close contact in larger urban agglomorations is basically ignoring traditional indigenous values in favour of notions of urban ‘efficiencies’.

  22. leftieBrawler says:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 7:52 am
    Is there actually a blocking capability on PB?.

    ———————————————————————-

    I’m pretty much a Luddite when it comes to these things.

    But I have been working on blocking with my brain.

  23. The Tehan questions are there to act as red meat feeds for a morass of race hate social media feeds. The same crew that helped sink the referendum, the same racists, the same hate feeders and the same federal Coalition leadership on the topic. This is being linked in the feeds to migration numbers.

    It is the Trump rule book for how Dutton won the No. It is how Dutton hopes to become prime minister. Hate. Racism. Xenophobia.

    My guess is that Tehan will be blocked from repeating the same question another half dozen times today. Because he will get six times that Dutton is a total bloody hypocrite on the safety of the community.

  24. Never saw the point of blocking posters and haven’t wanted to do it, but there is a browser extension that some here use (not part of Newspress / Press Patron functionality).

  25. You and me both tech Luddites rainman …….but I always wanted to be more into IT. Those IT, captain of the school audio-video club types live much longer lives thanks to a much milder and restrained lifestyle concerning things like drinking, womanising, avoiding dangerous sports etc

  26. I notice that a couple of posters were yesterday slagging Entropy on the basis that his ESL language is not the King’s English standard.

    Pissweak, IMO.

  27. BW: “I notice that a couple of posters were yesterday slagging Entropy on the basis that his ESL language is not the King’s English standard …”

    … and patronising Entropy as ‘dear boy’

    Noel Cowards …

  28. BW: “MB’s post is a partial example. Hot weather has been a standing element of Cenduna’s climate for millenia. Pushing previously separate family groups off country and into close contact in larger urban agglomorations is basically ignoring traditional indigenous values in favour of notions of urban ‘efficiencies’.”

    That’s all true, although record-breaking high temperatures are becoming more common around the place.

    Many people were undoubtedly pushed off their country, but many were also attracted to the towns in which they now live by the provision of food and shelter to them: often initially by missionaries, and later by governments. Individuals and groups that were antipathetic to each other used to have a vast landscape in which they could avoid each other as much as possible. Now, as you say, they are often living in close proximity to each other, which is a recipe for trouble.

    In recent years, some good work has been done in Dubbo to get some separation between communities with particularly bitter hatreds towards each other. Ceduna, though with a much smaller population, is geographically quite spread out, so there might be some scope for doing something similar there. Of course, it does necessitate more Indigenous families being moved into the whiter areas of the towns, which can become quite unpopular.

  29. Thanks, BK.

    The framing of the Closing the Gap audit focused heavily on process. The core process can be summarized as ‘Hand us the money and we will do the job that you are failing to do and only we can do.’ As noted previously this runs straight into the issue of accountability for taxpayer funds. Much of the bureaucratic processes in relation to Indigenous-specific funding are about being able to answer questions in Senate Estimates. Simply handing the funding to Indigenous organizations and communities will not remove the fundamental requirements for accountability for tax payer funds. But they WILL remove the ability of any governments of the day to defend themselves in Senate Estimates, in QT and in the court of public opinion.

    ATSIC gave expression in one way or another to the issues I am canvassing here.

    The referendum and the Treaty were the one sure path of breaking this accountability issue by embedding transfers of funds as by right. Accountability for the disposition of the funds would then becomes an internal matter for Indigenous peoples.

    In the absence of treaty arrangements, every single Closing the Gap report henceforth will attack the government of the day on process.

    IMO, Burney’s shows some awareness of this issue but her criticism of the Report is not incisive enough to tackle the core issue.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/feb/14/australia-politics-live-food-banks-ai-tasmania-election-aged-care-treaty-question-time-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-labor-coalition-greens

  30. mb
    I agree that Indigenous people were both actors and acted upon. As actors they responded to the hand they were dealt.
    In terms of broader historical policy settings you might find Peter Read’s ‘100 year’s war’ instructive.
    What it demonstrates is that forcibly shifting Indigenous people has been a consistent element of ‘solving’ the Indigenous ‘problem’ du jour. These ‘solutions’ have shown blindingly short-sighted lack of awareness that the oscillations and the forced shifts are a fundamental part of the problem – which is the colonial power shifting people around.
    The basic pattern is dispersal/concentration/dispersal/concentration/dispersal.
    On your other note, there is every reason to expect that Indigenous communities will disproportionately suffer the impacts of global warming because the global pattern is that poorer communities everywhere will disproportionately suffer the impacts of global warming. There is nothing inherently about being Indigenous that generates this consequence.

  31. Re the Cashless debit card, this Government should make it as difficult as possible to reintroduce.

    Not sure how to do this. Maybe legislate that certain Federal Government benefits including those for age and disability pensions and unemployment benefits* be paid to the beneficiary or a legal guardian of the beneficiary in Australian currency into an account owned by the beneficiary. Exceptions could be made for people declared incompetent on account of addiction or similar, where the benefit could be paid to a spouse or some other arrangement made. These would be exceptions, with a process to declare and rescind “incompetence”.

    * Let’s cut the “jobseeker” crap. The economy is designed to run with a pool of unemployed of about 5%

  32. Holdenhillbilly @ #8 Wednesday, February 14th, 2024 – 6:47 am

    Anthony Albanese has passed the political minefield of treaty onto the states as he reframes his Indigenous affairs agenda following the failure of the voice, revealing Labor will “take the time needed” to establish a truth-telling body and put its ­immediate focus on practical issues such as jobs, education, housing and justice.

    Does a promise that is bent beyond repair count as “broken”, or not?

  33. ‘Steve777 says:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 8:38 am

    Re the Cashless debit card, this Government should make it as difficult as possible to reintroduce.

    Not sure how to do this. Maybe legislate that certain Federal Government benefits including those for age and disability pensions and unemployment benefits* be paid to the beneficiary or a legal guardian of the beneficiary in Australian currency into an account owned by the beneficiary. Exceptions could be made for people declared incompetent on account of addiction or similar, where the benefit could be paid to a spouse or some other arrangement made. These would be exceptions, with a process to declare and rescind “incompetence”.

    * Let’s cut the “jobseeker” crap. The economy is designed to run with a pool of unemployed of about 5%’
    ———————–
    Ultimately, no government can constrain a future government. Your idea of making it more difficult seems to be to be to add layers of complexity. IMO, when government programs do this they almost invariably result in additional delays, frustrations and bugger ups.
    The fundamental issues around a cashless debit card is its imposition on a community-wide basis when it is only a subset of that community that pisses social security payments into legal and illegal drugs with consequent social mayhem and damage.

  34. Today’s Ley lines:

    ‘Sussan Ley continues to be the stunt master for the Coalition.

    * * *

    ‘Ley held a quick doorstop this morning to say:

    “Happy Valentine’s Day everybody.

    “Anthony Albanese, Clare O’Neil and Andrew Giles need a date with the truth today.”’

    (Guardian blog)

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