YouGov: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)

Another poll finds strong support for the government’s stage three tax cut changes have not shifted the needle on voting intention.

YouGov’s tri-weekly federal poll shows no sign of movement one way or the other in the wake of the stage three tax cuts rearrangement, with two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 from primary votes of Labor 32% (steady), Coalition 36% (down one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation 8% (up one). The poll also has a question on the tax cuts which finds a 69-31 break in favour of the changes over the tax cuts as originally proposed. Anthony Albanese’s lead on preferred premier has narrowed from 45-35 to 45-38 and his net approval rating is out from minus 13 to minus 16, with Peter Dutton in slightly from minus nine to minus eight. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1502.

Some notable electoral happenings at state level:

• There is the possibility of an early election in Tasmania as Premier Jeremy Rockliff pursues a demand that John Tucker and Lara Alexander, Liberal-turned-independent members who hold the balance of power in the lower house, agree not to vote for non-government amendments and motions. Further clarity may be provided after a meeting between the three at 1:30pm today.

• March 23 has been confirmed as the date for the South Australian state by-election in Dunstan, the highly marginal seat being vacated with the resignation on Tuesday of former Premier Steven Marshall.

• I also have by-election guides up for the Queensland state seats of Inala and Ipswich West, which will go to the polls concurrently with the local government elections on March 16.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,480 comments on “YouGov: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 30
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  1. c@t: “To also be fair, mb, Labor Ministers used to resign, but then they saw that Coalition Ministers didn’t, so they thought, why should WE?”

    Yep, something like that. Although I always thought that – wonderful fella though he was – Mick Young’s rapid return to the Ministry following the Combe-Ivanov affair set a bad tone. To reveal a highly sensitive state secret in such a way should have been a career -ending act, at least IMO.

    But I have to admit that the way the idea of Young coming back to the ministry was gently floated to the press gallery, and then gradually reinforced until it appeared to be inevitable, was a consumate piece of media management on the part of Hawke’s office. I was later reminded of it by the masterful way in which the AFL media department gradually conditioned the media to the reprehensible idea that it was possible for Barry Hall to be cleared to play in the 2005 AFL grand final, even though his punch to the stomach of Matt Maguire (putting Maguire on the sidelines for the rest of the match) took place in full view of the TV cameras.

    In his first term as PM, Howard attempted to implement a tough approach towards Ministerial responsibilty, but then became increasingly frustrated at how many capable ministers he was forced to let go. So then he gave up on the idea, and since then Ministerial resignations have been few and far between.

  2. Whilst enjoying Nemesis a lot more than I thought I would I took the chance to also watch the Killing Season, on the RGR Labor government.

    I’d recommend watching these at the same time. An odd 16 years of Australian political history where we cycled through Prime Ministers faster than the Italians.

    Other than the obvious similarities of the PM churn between the RGR and the ATM, what stuck me was how the Labor politicians on the whole were ashamed of their side’s political machinations, in fact some cried about it, over on the Liberal side they came across as hard scheming men (for the most part) with no shame and only revenge and hatred in the hearts.

    As to why the past 16 years has been so turbulent, I think our politics reflects the wider societal turbulence caused by whatever is causing that (theories I have, answers perhaps not).

    https://iview.abc.net.au/show/killing-season
    https://iview.abc.net.au/show/nemesis

  3. “To also be fair, mb, Labor Ministers used to resign, but then they saw that Coalition Ministers didn’t, so they thought, why should WE?”

    Is ‘why be good and ethical when we can be as shit as the libs’ the only Labor core belief left?

  4. Peter Dutton just been on with Raf Epstein on ABC Melbourne.

    Raf stands head and shoulders above all interviewers, he asks a mix of the interesting questions, the dixers and the probing. He gives his interviewee time to answer and then reminds them after a while of rambling to answer the question.

    Duttons responses probably wouldn’t move the dial either way, he wasn’t dreadful, tripped up or exposed. There is as always, a lot of coded language in his responses, that turn those who hate him off and to those who support his positions on…

    Dutton expressed his support for potentially funding Nuclear Power plants. I wonder how one would go down in South Gippsland – where Russel Broadbent has been extremely anti-wind farm. I wonder if they noticed the 4.3 magnitude Earthquake that was centred around Leongatha last night around midnight.

  5. meher baba @ #40 Friday, February 9th, 2024 – 8:46 am

    I predict that the independents will cave in sufficiently to allow Rockliff to emerge from the meeting claiming a victory. I can’t see that it is in the interests of Rockliff, Alexander or Tucker to have an election now: Rockliff would most likely lose government and the other two would quite possibly lose their seats, and the attractive salaries that come with them. Kevin B will probably correct me, but I would expect that Alexander would be certain to lose and Tucker would face a struggle (albeit that, unlike Alexander, he does have seem to have some sort of a personal following).

    I agree wholeheartedly with your assessment, for we are both rational sane people. Are these people though? My expectation is the whole early election will be a fizzer, but I do so hope it wont be.

    What is disheartening is the lack of ground game I am seeing in the seat of Franklin by Labor. I reflect on my experiences in the seat of Dickson in Brisbane and the ground game seemed to be much stronger, persistent, and well organised. Yes the Federal and State approaches will be different due to resourcing, but the basics are the same. Get a roster of people to sit by the road on Saturday mornings. Host monthly publicly open BBQs to try and recruit new volunteers and maybe members, run a continuous systematic door knocking campaign. Lean on the enthusiasm of the Young Labor gang to turn up weekend after weekend.

    I think perhaps the multi candidate seats we have here in the lower house sap the campaign ability of the party, each candidate seems out for themselves rather than for the party. Campaign management could be improved without an awful lot of effort.

  6. Socrates
    CO2 levels are now about where they were in the late Miocene when sea levels were about 20 metres higher than present. How fast the icesheets respond to the amount of forcing that they are being subjected to now is not really constrained well at all. In the words of Donald Rumsfeld it’s a known unknown.

  7. I agree with others above about the likelihood that the US SC will block the attempts to prevent Trump from running but quash the presidential immunity nonsense.

    Ironically, it’s the Republican appointees on the Supreme Court who seem most clear-eyed about the threat the Colorado and Maine decisions pose to American democracy, insofar as – as they’ve essentially stated – it’s pretty much inevitable that Republican states will then freely abuse the precedent to wreck free elections.

    The Marles thing seems like a political-bubble beatup of the sort that I’m usually critical of Labor people for buying into when it happens on the other side. Non-political obsessives won’t even notice the calls for his head.

  8. A Dunkley poll showing 52-48 is a swing of 4.3% to the Liberal Party.

    Replicated at a general election the 2pp would go from 52.1% ALP to 52.2% to Coalition, producing a virtual mirror image result of the last election.

    One should probably stop speculating about the possibility of a Dutton government and a Trump administration next year, but rather, focus more on strategies for non-conservative people on how to survive and even thrive in it (and helping those disadvantaged and marginalised by these conditions to do same).

  9. The lib/nats and their propaganda media units still not understanding
    That not only did majority of non lib/nats supporters, but also majority of lib/nat supporters knew/wanted and agree with Labor changing the lib/nats stage 3 tax cuts

  10. RP

    Thanks and yes I was aware of that. We really don’t know what rapid heating will do to ice sheets. The forces in the Greenland ice sheet are already large enough to cause small earthquakes. What if the sheets fracture and collapse rather than melt? We don’t know.

  11. I also can’t see an upside in actually going to an early election for any of Rockliff, Alexander, or Tucker, for what it’s worth. I expect Alexander and Tucker to lose their seats when it happens, and while I expect Rockliff wouldn’t lose government, the odds of an even more chaotic minority government than the one he started with are very high.

    Rebecca White’s steadfast comments about refusing to govern in minority in any circumstances are going to dog her and Tasmanian Labor, given the very small likelihood on current polling that anyone gets majority government. Kevin Bonham suggested on his blog the other day that in the event Labor could form government in minority without the Greens (i.e. with JLN or indies), she might well have to resign as Labor leader so that someone who hadn’t made that ill-judged call could form government, and I agree.

  12. MelbourneMammoth @ #59 Friday, February 9th, 2024 – 9:46 am

    A Dunkley poll showing 52-48 is a swing of 4.3% to the Liberal Party.

    Replicated at a general election the 2pp would go from 52.1% ALP to 52.2% to Coalition, producing a virtual mirror image result of the last election.

    One should probably stop speculating about the possibility of a Dutton government and a Trump administration next year, but rather, focus more on strategies for non-conservative people on how to survive and even thrive in it (and helping those disadvantaged by these conditions to do same).

    Correlation is not causation MM. A swing in a byelection does not mean a swing in a federal election.

  13. MelbourneMammoth says:
    Friday, February 9, 2024 at 9:46 am
    A Dunkley poll showing 52-48 is a swing of 4.3% to the Liberal Party.

    Replicated at a general election the 2pp would go from 52.1% ALP to 52.2% to Coalition, producing a virtual mirror image result of the last election.
    —————————-

    Cant see outside of Qld where the lib/nats are going to gain seats , lib/nats combined primary vote of 36% are more likely to struggle to retain the seats they hold nationwide

    55 seats

  14. On defence, the war in Ukraine raises hard questions about what capabilities are no longer worthwhile. The USA just cancelled its attack reconnaissance helicopter program. Morrison committed us to billions on new Apaches. Japan cancelled theirs.
    https://breakingdefense.com/2024/02/army-cancels-fara-helicopter-program-makes-other-cuts-in-major-aviation-shakeup/?utm_campaign=Breaking%20News&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=293399566&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8kUq76iwcfMhuMvEZnxPK9OY5z5g3WzQ0OvJ1Rmalrn4Nxmc8ok8ZzcXJH10QAy5P2ETelOAKKuYsSRRJ9Wfkqx1D4HA&utm_content=293399566&utm_source=hs_email

  15. Mostly Interested: “As to why the past 16 years has been so turbulent, I think our politics reflects the wider societal turbulence caused by whatever is causing that (theories I have, answers perhaps not).”

    —————————————————————-

    It might sound a little far-fetched, but I also blame the undue influence of the TV series The West Wing on the behaviour of political staffers and the press gallery. I observed a significant shift in the behaviour of people in Parliament House after that show was first aired. It believe it inspired a growing faux urgency in relation to everything that was going on, and created the myth of the “24 hour news cycle” which seems to have persuaded everyone in Canberra that the segment of the public that they need most to impress are the tiny audiences of mostly retirees who are continally glued to Sky News and ABC News 24.

    I’m going to praise Albo for a second time today, but I have been impressed at the way he is uninclined to rush into making decisions: the S3 changes being the most recent example.

    I think Albo is a pretty mediocre PM, but he is arguably also the most capable one we have had since Howard. IMO Rudd, Gillard, Abbott, Turnbull and ScoMo all had major shortcomings which help to explain why their parties became increasingly terrified that they were going to lead them to electoral defeat.

    Rudd was too full of spin and overly obsessed with how he came across in the bogus 24 hour news cycle, and the public eventually saw through that.

    Gillard had a lot of policy substance, but was a poor communicator who was even more poorly advised by her media staff.

    Abbott was barely capable of being an effective parliamentarian, let alone PM: his judgement was extremely poor and he eccentric views on many issues which his staffers had to struggle very hard to keep in check. Despite all the praise he got from some of his colleagues on Nemesis for his “determination” and “commitment” and whatever, he would never have come remotely close to leading his party to government if not for Labor’s self-destructive R-G-R nonsense.

    Turnbull, like Gillard, had much policy substance, but was a pretty poor communicator: smug and rather distant. I don’t think the public ever warmed to him.

    Like Rudd, ScoMo was a superb communicator in a highly manipulative sort of a way, but the public eventually saw through all the spin.

    Albo, on the other hand, is a bit of a policy lightweight and only a passable communicator. But he has a pretty good grasp of how to go about doing the job of PM. He’s also been surprisingly effective on the international stage. So, as far as our recent PMs go, he’s a keeper IMO.

  16. Well Biden has just been caught mishandling classified documents. All credibility of the Democrats’ attacks on Trump doing same have therefore just evaporated. It won’t go to criminal trial because Biden presented as a “well-meaning elderly man with a poor memory”. But the GOP have just obviously stated if you’re too senile to stand trial, you’re too senile to be President. I would say too senile to be Mayor of Muncie let alone President.

    Biden as he stands is now toast. Even if he stands aside, none of the wannabe contenders in the Democrats have a hope in hell of beating Trump. Newsom or Michelle Obama would probably be the best placed to lead them to the most “honourable” loss. Kamala would be lucky to get them to 150 electoral votes. Get over it. All hail New Voldemort!


  17. Socrates says:
    Friday, February 9, 2024 at 9:51 am

    On defense, the war in Ukraine raises hard questions about what capabilities are no longer worthwhile. The USA just cancelled its attack reconnaissance helicopter program. Morrison committed us to billions on new Apaches. Japan cancelled theirs.

    Yes it has been pretty amazing. Expansive kit seems to be nothing more than an expensive target. When push comes to shove, a pile of scrape metal.

  18. MelbourneMammothsays:
    Friday, February 9, 2024 at 9:58 am
    Get over it. All hail New Voldemort!

    =====================================================

    A Republican loving pachyderm. Rejoicing in their belief of an inevitable Trump win. This is the context of pretty well half the USA cartoons i see these days too.


  19. MelbourneMammoth says:
    Friday, February 9, 2024 at 9:58 am

    Well Biden has just been caught mishandling classified documents.

    It’s old news, the difference is, when asked he gave them back.

  20. Fewer nuclear reactors verses acres of solar panels & monsterous wind turbines.
    Broadbent has been pushing for nuclear.
    Sounds like Dutts & Co. are building their campaign for nuclear.

  21. MelbourneMammoth: I suspect that the documents issue will not have any lasting impact on Biden’s campaign.

    However, I would take issue with the idea that Michelle Obama could ever be a good candidate for President. Let’s leave aside the fact that (unlike other nepo candidates of recent times such as Hillary and George W Bush) she has never held a significant public office. There’s the more substantial problem that, by the time his presidency had come to an end, Barrack Obama had become quite unpopular: far more so than Clinton was in 2000. The Dems’ tactic for the 2012 election campaign was to push Obama into the background to an unusual extent for a sitting president, and focus most of their attention on Romney’s shortcomings.

    There are perhaps some deluded souls in the Democratic Party who dream of Michelle O inspiring a massive and unprecedented turnout of African-Americans. And perhaps she would, but they represent only 12.5 per cent of the electorate.

    Kamala Harris, mediocre though she undoubtedly is, would be a much better proposition IMO.

  22. Yeah, it’s probably not that he had the documents that’ll do the damage:

    “The special counsel explicitly referenced the 81-year-old’s “significantly limited” memory – an incendiary topic in this year’s election – including his inability to remember what year his son Beau died.

    ““We have also considered that, at trial, Mr Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,” Hur wrote.

    ““Based on our direct interactions with and observations of him, he is someone for whom many jurors will want to identify reasonable doubt. It would be difficult to convince a jury that they should convict him – by then a former president well into his eighties – of a serious felony that requires a mental state of willfulness.””

    And, given the critique of the West Wing earlier, perhaps a quote is called for:

    Claudia Jean ‘C.J.’ Cregg : You guys are like Butch and Sundance peering over the edge of a cliff to the boulder-filled rapids 300 feet below, thinking you better not jump ’cause there’s a chance you might drown… It’s the fall that’s gonna kill ya.

  23. meher baba @ #67 Friday, February 9th, 2024 – 9:51 am

    Mostly Interested: “As to why the past 16 years has been so turbulent, I think our politics reflects the wider societal turbulence caused by whatever is causing that (theories I have, answers perhaps not).”

    —————————————————————-

    It might sound a little far-fetched, but I also blame the undue influence of the TV series The West Wing on the behaviour of political staffers and the press gallery. I observed a significant shift in the behaviour of people in Parliament House after that show was first aired. It believe it inspired a growing faux urgency in relation to everything that was going on, and created the myth of the “24 hour news cycle” which seems to have persuaded everyone in Canberra that the segment of the public that they need most to impress are the tiny audiences of mainly retirees who are continually glued to Sky News and ABC News 24.

    An interesting idea.

    For me it is:
    1. The atomization of the media landscape facilitated by the largescale uptake of the internet.
    2. The atomization of societal community groupings facilitated by the largescale uptake of the internet.
    3. The aggregation of special interest groupings facilitated by the largescale uptake of the internet.
    4. The magnification effect of fringe view points facilitated by the largescale uptake of the internet.
    5. And so on.

  24. “The USA just cancelled its attack reconnaissance helicopter program. Morrison committed us to billions on new Apaches.”

    Ta for that link Soc.

    Interesting shift in priorities which i think is coming out of the Ukraine experience in the use, or not use of air power.

    Something like Apache works well where you have a “permissive” environment. In Ukraine there are so many different levels of SAM around that all the combatants are VERY reluctant to use fast jets or helicopters tactically.

    Apache was designed from the getgo to carry 16 Hellfire missiles, and unload them fairly quickly against moving mass armor formations. The Russians just dont have the numbers anymore for that to be more than a “local” possibility.

    Russian attack helicopters have taken very heavy losses for the damage they have done.

    Also the kind of mass armor thrusts and wide scale rapid movement that NATO expected if the Russians ever came over the border are now a lot less likely, and so the systems oriented to stopping them are less important.

    So, makes sense to me that people de-emphasise pure attack helicopters, and move to medium transport choppers as generally more useful …… but that can still carry significant armament at need and short notice. I really hope Australia avoids tiltrotors in the future though.

    Is good to see that the Aust/US Ghostbat program seems to be chugging ahead.

  25. Deesays:
    Friday, February 9, 2024 at 10:09 am
    Fewer nuclear reactors verses acres of solar panels & monsterous wind turbines.
    ___________________________
    monsterous wind turbines???

    They are Majestic, hypnotic pieces of Engineering brilliance.

    Here’s something that you can do on many wind farms – take a walk among them. Good luck doing the same with a Nuclear Power plant..

  26. “Fewer nuclear reactors verses acres of solar panels & monsterous wind turbines.
    Broadbent has been pushing for nuclear.
    Sounds like Dutts & Co. are building their campaign for nuclear.”

    About time he was pushed to explain where the billions and billions of dollars to build and underwrite the most expensive form of energy on the planet.

    While he is at it he could be working hiw to explain why we can trust corporations to safely run the technology when corporations cannot be trusted.

  27. The Dutton Stage 3 Scare is dead.

    Long live Albo.

    Where does Dutton go from here? Nebulous claims about how Albo’s rooned the country in 3 years but that the same failed policies they spent 10 years on will fix it straight away? Nuclear Reactors that will take 30 years to build and cost 10 times their initial estimate?

    Is he going to go back to China Bad?

  28. Alpha Zerosays:
    Friday, February 9, 2024 at 10:23 am
    Deesays:
    Friday, February 9, 2024 at 10:09 am
    Fewer nuclear reactors verses acres of solar panels & monsterous wind turbines.
    ___________________________
    monsterous wind turbines???

    They are Majestic, hypnotic pieces of Engineering brilliance.

    Here’s something that you can do on many wind farms – take a walk among them. Good luck doing the same with a Nuclear Power plant..
    ====================================================

    While those in farmland you can graze your sheep and cattle under them. While they still pay you a yearly stipend. Often more than you are getting for those sheep or cattle.

  29. Bravo basketball Ireland, and Ireland more generally, unlike Australian politicians they wouldn’t cut of aid funding for babies and children and civilians being deliberately deprived of *checks notes* almost every essential based on flimsy unsubstantiated rumours, that apparently cannot be substantiated, from a bad faith actor.

    Bravo basketball Ireland. Courage and integrity Australian politics needs a lot more of.

  30. ‘Chaos’ is the word for Republicans, and the media has finally noticed

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/2/8/2222187/–Chaos-is-the-word-for-Republicans-and-the-media-has-finally-noticed?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_4&pm_medium=web

    “For many years, the news media has loved “Democrats in disarray” stories. Those stories always seem to pop up in election years—especially years when things are going well—to assure readers that Democrats are divided, or they’ve lost the Black vote, or they don’t trust their leaders. Something. Anything that shows the Democratic Party as disorganized and incapable of running an effective government.

    Somehow, that same media has seemed to largely ignore the MAGA cancer gnawing away at the Republican Party in both the House and Senate. ”

    This article contains jist of various articles by various US media outlets criticising MAGA Republicans.

  31. Alpha
    I’m not opposed to wind turbines & perhaps should have made myself clear on my position.
    That is the messaging coming from the Coalition.
    Plenty of struggling farmers on the Downs are enjoying their royalties whilst still running their cattle.

  32. @Socrates:

    “ BK thanks for the morning roundup. On Defence and naval shipbuilding, there are lots of contradictory rumors swirling around. There was a contradictory one yesterday, quoting “industry sources” that the Hunter frigate program will be increased from 9 to 12 or even 16 ships. That seems fanciful.
    https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/naval/13569-surface-fleet-review-carries-hunter-class-changes-in-february-release-say-industry-insiders

    IMO the Hunter program should be replaced or cut back to 3 ships at most immediately, as implied in the SMH article. BAE are further behind schedule and more over cost on Hunter than Naval were when their sub contract was cancelled. Even if the project was proceeding perfectly, it is the wrong ship for us. The critical question is what it is replaced with. This project was supposed to be providing Adelaide with >2000 jobs by now at ASC.”

    ________

    A few observations:

    1. If the Hunter ‘Block 1’ program had blown out to $45 billion for 9 ASW Frigates, then what cost for SIXTEEN (16) Hunter Class ships spread between ASW and AWD configuration. The ‘Block 2’ AWD involves a complete redesign process and would not be ready to go into production until after the first three ASW’s a built – according to the BAE Boffin who was interviewed spruiking the idea last November at the Pacific Arms fair held in Australia.

    2. One of the biggest factors identified in the Strategic Review last year was the current capability gap between what we currently have and what we need NOW and for the coming decade. Neither the ‘Block 1’ Hunters or the ‘Block 2’ Hunter concept addresses this capability gap. In fact, on BAE’s own apparent timelines we would not see a single new Hunter class AWD enter service before the 2040s. Moreover, and to drive this point home, until now the planned ‘drumbeat’ was meant to be one new Hunter Ship being built every 3 years. At that drum beat it would take until the 2070s before all 12 ships came into service, by which time the lead ships would have to have been retired. Perhaps – if we are going to build 16 Hunter Class ships that drumbeat will be reduced significantly so that the fleet can be turned over every 30 years or so.

    3. Following on from point 2, it MUST be apparent that if the Government and RAN are serious in addressing the capability gap identified in the Strategic Review then (a) we need other ‘fit for purpose’ platforms to come into service before the Hunter Class starts to arrive in numbers (which they wont until the 2040s, even if the build drum beat is increased); and (b) our existing fleet must be further upgraded and life extended.

    As to (a) the ‘no brainer’ solutions is the ordering and rapid building and introduction into service of an additional three Hobart Class AWDs: built in modules by Navantia in Spain and assembled and fitted out at Williamtown, Melbourne (given that the Adelaide and Perth Ship Building yards will have their hands full with patrol vessels, OPVs, Corvettes/light frigates, Hunter Class large frigates and who knows maybe even a submarine or two in the distant future). These should be supplemented by 6-10 Corvette/Light Frigates (perhaps reducing the final number of Arafura OPVs being built.

    As to (b) in addition to adding NSMs to the Hobarts and Anzacs (and Tomahawks to the Hobarts as well), both exiting heavy surface fleet ships need to have their CIWS systems upgraded (a phalanx for the Anzacs, and extr one for the Hobarts, plus rolling airframe missile canisters). Even the Arafura Class OPVs might be suitable for a dual purpose main gun-CIWS system and a single canister of NSM’s as standard.

    Anyways, we shall soon see.

  33. Repost from previous thread

    Vensays:
    Friday, February 9, 2024 at 2:37 am

    C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, February 8, 2024 at 6:01 pm
    Al Pal @ #1975 Thursday, February 8th, 2024 – 4:15 pm

    There’s an old maxim in politics: voters will support any tax cuts that land in their pockets, but at any forthcoming election they will vote for the Party which is promising more tax cuts.

    I never heard of such an “old maxim in politics”. If that is true, which I don’t think it is, then
    1. it is the reason why LNP run up trillion dollar debt by always promising tax cuts.
    2. Then people should not complain if they lose social dividends from cuts to social security benefits because that was what happen to pay for those tax cuts if governments are honest about keeping the expenditure under control.

    The ATM governments were dishonest about tax cuts funding because they never cared about about that side of ledger and hence trillion dollar debt. Howard government provided tax cuts but cut services.
    The only other way to provide tax cuts without cutting services and without increasing debt is to reduce the subsidies given to private enterprises.
    I have recently posted an article on how private enterprises were reigned by Roosevelt Administration during Depression because Depression was due to “Greed is good” orthodoxy of 1920s.

    Then private enterprises for a period of time until Reagan administration came to power looked after their employees and customers. If you notice until the advent of Reagan administration taxes were high to provide for these services and social security benefits.

    After Reagan administration came, the private enterprises were told that their important ( some say only) objective is to provide profits to their firm and investors irrespective of caring for employees and customers. Thus “greed is good” was back in vogue.
    There is story behind why “tax cuts” became “popular”since 1980s.
    With the advent of Franklin Roosevelt Administration, the progressive side of politics started promising to provide various public services and social security benefits.
    People liked that and voted for that side of politics ( you would notice that since 1932 to 1980 i.e. for 32 out of 48 years Democrats were in power) and USA flourished. Republicans were at lose to counter this trend. Then some one on Republican party side said why should they be bad guys by being financially prudent all the time and came up with 2 things.
    1. Tax cuts
    2. Cultural wars

    Thus started the downward slide of USA, accelerated during Bush jr years and came to near collapse during Trump years by raking up US 34 trillion dollars debt and near break up of social cohesion ( you would notice that since 1980 Republicans were in power 24 out of 40 years).

    I am not against tax cuts per se but they should be funded/ revenue neutral (as Socrates likes to say).
    That is not happening till now. Let’s see how the latest tax cuts will be funded. Infact some say during ATM say government services were just gutted to provide more subsidies to ATM Governments benefactors.

  34. Questions for Dutton:

    – How many nuclear reactors will Australia have in 2030; 2040; 2050 assuming that we can get started in the next few years? [likely 0, 1 or 2, 10-20]
    – How many will ultimately be built
    – How much will it cost
    – How will they be paid for? How much taxpayer subsidy will be required.
    – Where will they be built
    – What arrangements will be made for transporting and storing waste?
    – How are we going to keep the dodgy private interests who will build, own and run the things honest?

    And maybe ask up-front: is this all a ploy to lock fossil fuel use into the Australian economuy for the next few decades?

    Anything but renewables.

  35. shellbell: In NSW, this is called a “push off”.
    —————————————–
    I fully expected that you would provide a cheeky comment on this topic at some point.

    Bloody Swans supporters. 🙂


  36. RPsays:
    Friday, February 9, 2024 at 6:24 am
    CO2 ar Manua Loa on Feb 6 was 425.89 ppm, up 5.9 ppm on the same time last year. Ocean temperatures up about 0.2°C compared to this time last year. It would be a fair bet to say we’re in for a few more climate records this year.

    P1 and RP
    Earth had hottest January in living memory.

    January was world’s warmest on record, say EU scientists

    Every month since June has been the world’s hottest on record, compared with the corresponding month in previous years.
    By: Reuters
    February 8, 2024 09:41 IST

    The world just experienced its hottest January on record, continuing a run of exceptional heat fuelled by climate change, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said on Thursday.

    Last month surpassed the previous warmest January, which occurred in 2020, in C3S’s records going back to 1950.

    https://indianexpress-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/indianexpress.com/article/world/climate-change/january-2024-warmest-on-record-9150117/lite/?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17074367515834&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Findianexpress.com%2Farticle%2Fworld%2Fclimate-change%2Fjanuary-2024-warmest-on-record-9150117%2F

  37. How long can US Democrats allow this to go on? This report is damning. The implications of this are such that IMO Biden should resign immediately. He certainly shouldn’t run for another 4 year term

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/biden-wilfully-retained-classified-materials-but-no-criminal-charges-warranted-20240209-p5f3lt.html

    This! How does he go on as President given this:

    “ He did not remember when he was vice president, forgetting on the first day of the interview when his term ended… and forgetting on the second day of the interview when his term began,” it says.

    “He did not remember, even within several years, when his son Beau died. And his memory appeared hazy when describing the Afghanistan debate that was once so important to him.”

    “Among other things, he mistakenly said he ‘had a real difference’ of opinion with General Karl Eikenberry (a former US ambassador to Afghanistan) when, in fact Eikenberry was an ally whom Mr Biden cited approvingly in his Thanksgiving memo to President Obama.”

  38. Although I think the issue will pass, the comments made by the special counsel are quite damaging to Biden in the context of the election, indicating either an extraordinary naivete or else wilful malice on the part of Mr Hur. (And, let’s face it, the last person named Hur who ever received any public attention was a fictional character played by Charlton Heston, who was very much a MAGA type. :-))


  39. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, February 9, 2024 at 6:28 am
    Oliver Sutton,
    That is Advance’s ‘Jump the Shark’ moment. The polling must be really bad for the Liberals to drag that crap up from the sewers.

    Polling is not bad when it is 52-48 in Dunkley. What so called ‘Advance Australia’ is doing is sewer ( some say gutter) and racist politics. No doubt about that.
    But what businesses like Baker’s delight and Kennards Storage, who donated money to them, is unconscionable.
    It reminds us of big businesses did Hitler regime.

  40. c@t: “Michelle Obama has stated multiple times that she has no interest in running for office. Why won’t people believe her?”

    Because we’ve all heard lots of people make such denials in the past, and then go all in. Remember “Lazarus with a triple bypass”?

  41. Griff @ #63 Friday, February 9th, 2024 – 9:50 am

    The MIT World3 model back in the 70’s determined 2040 as the year everything changes. Latest data is that we might have a couple more years, but not many: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442

    Good stuff, thanks.

    It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in belief systems, mindsets, and the way we organize our society (Irwin, 2015; Wamsler & Brink, 2018

    50 years, and the mindset continues; exceptions apply: the most mature*, the most forward thinking, the most empathic for the subspecies of monkeys we are, and how we came to be where we are, thank you Goldilocks.

    I’m repeating myself, (PB after all), but I think the problem is as an evolving species we have acquired some capacity to deal with immediate crises, but not yet ones whose effects are beyond our in-the-now flight/fight response. And we don’t live long enough. Three score and ten, and a few extra, is a very narrow time window, and a limit on the acquisition of evolutionary wisdom.

    * While those most vociferous in the denial of the need for and the blocking of long term self preservation are patently the most immature and childlike. Barnaby Joyce is typical writ large, self indulgent on just about every benchmark.

  42. This is just laughable as a legal defense:

    Donald Trump’s lawyers have hung their defense of his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection on a line from his speech at the “Stop the Steal” rally at the Ellipse, but a trio of legal experts say the broader record of his statements and actions undermines that argument.

    The former president claimed last month during a speech that his supporters had acted “peacefully and patriotically,” echoing that key line from his speech that his attorneys have made a centerpiece of his defense since his post-Jan. 6 impeachment, but abundant evidence shows they did not and he didn’t want them to, wrote legal experts Tom Joscelyn, Norman L. Eisen and Fred Wertheimer for Just Security.

    “We expect prosecutors will explain to the jurors why the sentence in the Ellipse speech is, in actuality, more incriminating than exculpatory when understood in context,” they wrote. “Indeed, evidence uncovered by the January 6th Select Committee shows that Trump deliberately and repeatedly implored his followers to ‘fight’ – and was reticent to use the word ‘peaceful’ at all. Recent revelations of evidence gathered by Special Counsel Jack Smith will also help prove the case.”

    The authors lay out a detailed and damning compendium of Trump’s public statements and behind-the-scenes evidence uncovered by prosecutors and the House select committee that shows White House officials, outside allies and family members begged the former president to call off his supporters once the violence erupted, but he refused for hours.

    “It was not until 4:17 p.m. that Trump released a video telling his supporters they needed to go home and ‘[w]e have to have peace’ – a command that many rioters quickly obeyed,” the authors wrote. “In that video, however, Trump openly sympathized with the rioters’ cause, telling them: ‘I know your pain, I know you’re hurt. We had an election that was stolen from us.'”

    Even more potentially damning is a statement he posted on Twitter at 6:01 p.m., in which he justified their actions, saying, “These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide election victory is so unceremoniously & viciously stripped away.”

    That statement could undermine his U.S. Supreme Court appeal to a Colorado ruling to disqualify him under the Constitution’s insurrection clause, and it could be used as evidence in special counsel Jack Smith’s election subversion case.

    “Smith may also use this statement as an admission by Trump that the assault on the Capitol was a foreseeable consequence of telling the mob that his landslide victory had been stolen from them,” the authors pointed out. “’Remember this day forever!’ Trump wrote.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-jan-6-tweet/

    Don’t know about the potential to interact beneficially in the Colorado case.

  43. “ Although I think the issue will pass”

    How so? These observations and comments appear won’t go away: not only do they reinforce what many Americans – including millions who voted for Biden in 2020 – think about Biden, they will confirm these opinions in the minds of most. This is a full blown disaster for Democrats and America.

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